U.S. to update Y2K report cards on other nations

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

U.S. to update Y2K report cards on other nations

By Jim Wolf

WASHINGTON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - The State Department plans to put out "strengthened" travel advice on the year 2000 technology glitch and may announce the withdrawal of staff members or their dependents from U.S. diplomatic outposts, a senior official told Congress on Wednesday.

In separate testimony, the top U.S. intelligence officer for science and technology said Russia and Ukraine were "particularly vulnerable" to Y2K, the coding problem that could trip ill-prepared computers on Jan. 1.

Lawrence Gershwin of the National Intelligence Council said the greatest risks in those two countries were to systems that warn of any incoming missiles, military command and control, nuclear power plants, gas supplies, and the electric power grid.

"Some countries -- such as Russia -- are likely to be so poorly prepared that widespread telecommunications failures will likely occur," Gershwin told the special Senate Y2K Committee. Copies of his prepared remarks were made available on Tuesday.

Bonnie Cohen, the State Department's undersecretary for management, told the panel to expect "strengthened consular information sheets for a small number of countries" that have failed to make "anticipated progress" on battling the Y2K bug.

In addition, any decision to bring home staff or family members for Y2K reasons, such as the prospect of power outages, will be reflected in the revised sheets, which will be issued by the end of the month, she said.

IDENTIFYING NATIONAL INTEREST

She said the department was trying to identify "with greater clarity" the countries that the United States may have the greatest national interest in helping through possible Y2K hardships. "Assisting such countries to the extent we are able will be very important," she said.

Cohen did not name countries that might be hard hit by systems that misread the start of 2000 as 1900 because of an old computer practice of recognizing only the last two digits of a year.

On Sept. 14 the State Department put out an initial update of its 196 consular information sheets to paint a very blurry road map of likely problem spots worldwide.

The department's internal watchdog, Inspector General Jacquelyn Williams-Bridgers, criticized many of the initial country-by-country Y2K breakdowns as "too vague" to be useful.

The information sheet on Italy, for example, was "largely boilerplate," she told the committee, which is headed by Sen. Robert Bennett, a Republic from Utah, and Chris Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat.

Williams-Bridgers suggested that some of the original Y2K assessments -- meant above all to warn U.S. citizens of risks abroad -- had been slanted to take into account foreign policy considerations.

A SENSITIVE BUSINESS

She said that putting out report cards on other countries' Y2K readiness was inevitably "sensitive, given the potential impact that Y2K might have on the country's economy, its reputation or even its internal political stability."

But the department had a responsibility to release updates "so Americans can make reasoned, informed decisions" on New Year's travel, Williams-Bridgers said.

Gershwin, presenting the collective judgment of the Central Intelligence Agency and several of its 12 sister spy outfits, said China, Egypt, India, Indonesia and unnamed Eastern European countries were also vulnerable "due to their poor Y2K preparations and in some cases the difficulty of coping with breakdowns in critical services in the middle of winter."

"Some foreign governments and businesses will look to the United States and its better-prepared infrastructure to overcome Y2K problems abroad," Gershwin said.

"We expect to see safe-havening of financial assets, routing traffic through U.S. computer and telecommunications networks to avoid local bottlenecks, using U.S. transportation facilities to move international trade, and calls on the U.S. military to intervene in humanitarian crises," he added.

Such crises could arise from prolonged power and heat outages, breakdowns in urban water supplies, food shortages, the degradation of medical services and "environmental disasters resulting from failures in safety controls," Gershwin said.

========================================= End

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), October 13, 1999

Answers

Well, I'm certainly no expert in PR strategy and the use of "trial balloons" ... but given how sensitive and controversial the Y2K topic is these days (sorta like talking about incest at a cocktail party), it strikes me as unlikely that there would be ANY mention of bringing embassy staff home unless it was already a fait accompli.

If the gov't leaders were unanimous in their decision NOT to do this, then they wouldn't blabber about it in front of a Congressional committee, right? And if they were still arguing, debating, thinking, meditating, etc, it seems to me that they would keep their collective mouths shut.

On the other hand, if it's simply a question of WHICH countries are going to be on the "leper list," then there's no harm in admitting that there will be at least one such country. Of course, if the country were the Seychelle Islands, or Bangladesh, nobody would care ... and again, one wonders why they would even bother mentioning it.

If it's a single country like Russia ... well, that wouldn't be a big surprise, considering all of the negative, gloomy things that various gov't officials have been saying about that country's Y2K status. If it was a single country named Paraguay, everyone would shrug and say, "Paraguay? Where's that -- is it next door to Uruguay? Didn't we see an article about that in the Washington Post yesterday? What do they produce in Paraguay, anyway? Parrots? Who cares?"

But if the list is going to contain 30 or 40 countries, then it becomes a political hot-potato -- especially if there are some surprises on the list. Given the story we all say yesterday about Rome airport running out of fuel, I think everyone would simply chuckle if Italy was on the list ... but what if the list contained countries like Germany or France? What if it includes Japan or India or China?

We have no way of knowing, of course, and I may be reading FAR too much into all of this. In any event, I guess we'll know one way or the other at the end of this month ... or, if not then, in 79 days.

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), October 13, 1999.


So in a couple of weeks the US Government is going to announce which nations are unsafe for American citizens? That ought to be well-received by the host country.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), October 13, 1999.

OHHHHHHH I think all the little Johnny's and Susie's will all get A's and B's. Or maybe all students will receive another report card with filled with I's. (as in 1% Incomplete)

Let's all relax and chill to some vibes. This guy has some talent.

http://www.keybdwizrd.com/songdesc/undrm_32.html

-- the Virginian (1@1.com), October 13, 1999.


They will round up the usual suspects. You know, Kenya, Russia, Sri Lanka, etc. Somehow, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US never get on that list.

-- Mr. Adequate (mr@adequate.com), October 14, 1999.

For Lawrence Gershwin & Bonnie Cohen (et. al.) Senate testimony links...

See also...

New Senate Y2K Hearings - "What in the World Will Happen?"

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 001Zqp



-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), October 14, 1999.



Moderation questions? read the FAQ