Subject:	Re: Panic Is Inevitable
Date:	1999/10/11
Author:	cory hamasaki <kiyoinc@ibm.XOUT.net>
	Posting History

On Sun, 10 Oct 1999 10:46:00, John Denver <jd@howdyfolks.org> wrote: > Paul Milne wrote: .... > > People are going to panic. And the one thing that will have caused MORE > > panic than ANYTHING else will have been the various government's failures to > > warn people to make serious preparations. Not this joke of a three day > > snowstorm crapola. > > > Paul, > What you should do now is relax, and quit flogging preparation. I think > you will find it very interesting how the Pollies respond when the > doomers stop promoting (or even actively discourage) preparation. ... > You see, we have Koskinen between a rock and a hard place. Even he > admits that he did his job too well. He knows that under the cloud of > lies and PR, there is an ugly problem. ... > So you should let Kosky sit in the hot seat for a while. In a way, he's > using you. Since people like you are around saying "Prepare, Prepare", > he doesn't have to say it as often. So why don't we all kick back and > coast for a while? The WRP editorials for the last month have reached a similar conclusion. For the Got-Its, anyone who is at Edwards 3 or better and has their Eastabrook rating up, it is time to kick back. Sure, when I see a sale on tuna, corned beef hash, or something else that I use but don't have a full to overflowing inventory on, I'll snare a case or two. I've got a month's worth of drinking water in bottles at Site-B (some are in hand pleasing containers, Site-B is close to a local river.), firewood for a winter (I hope it's mild), and food for months (all stuff that I like, bought on sale, canned corn, pasta, soups, canned green beans, wheat for the flour mill.) Our more complex plans have encountered snags. I entertained the idea of a 12 V/110VAC system based on a server UPS. Additional batteries would let the system ride out frequent 2-3 hour power outages. The small solar panel would provide long term power. While it's easy to design this stuff on paper, slightly harder to buy it and drag it home. It takes days to install, configure, test, write the procedures. A simple thing like the solar panel consumes a surprising amount of time. Find the spot with the most light; make plywood and 2x4 supports, paint it, install it, run the wires to the batteries. All that gets you is a few watts of 12VDC in the basement. A server UPS runs on 24 VDC, solar panels are 12 VDC. > Don't be too eager, Paul. Look at Y2K as a seed. We will plant it on > 01/01/00, and we'll watch it grow. Give it a little room to breathe. Let > the machines fail on their own, and let people's response grow naturally > from there. It is very dangerous to be seen as an agitator if a panic > actually starts. If Y2K truly goes systemic, it won't need any help from us. Kosky's out might be to SCREAM "SOME ARE PREPARING; we might or might not recommend more than 3 days; SOME ARE TAKING THEIR MONEY OUT OF BANKS; the banks are safe." Whatever happens, happens. I hear there are two "bet the company on it" systems going into production in the next month in Mary-land. The architects, designers, CIO's in charge all moved on, retired, quit, got transfers in the last year. Strangely, even people who are only peripherally involved with the systems are leaving for greener pastures. One system is being slammed into production by an ex-secretary, no college, ZERO programming experience, no project management, a classic case of an IT disaster. Yes, this is *second* hand info from programmer pals. Take it for what it's worth. cory hamasaki http://www.kiyoinc.com/current.html 

-- a (a@a.a), October 11, 1999

Answers

"The architects,designers, CIO's in charge all moved on, retired, quit, got transfers in the last year. Strangely, even people who are only peripherally involved with the systems are leaving for greener pastures."

A couple of several years ago, I remember reading a list of "possible" solutions to the Y2K problem. (source..? print somewheres...)

Anyways, this was before anyone really took it very seriously, and one of the ideas was for all the IT managers to quit their jobs and then get jobs somewhere's else (musical chairs).

this way, they would all have the same jobs, but at different companies and they would inherit "someone else's" problem, but would not get blamed if it did not succeed.

of course this idea was suggested by IT managers.

sounds like the plan is working!

-- plonk! (realaddress@hotmail.com), October 11, 1999.

This is the 'evidence'? Cory heard a rumor about a company screwing up in Maryland? A company so big and important that the effort is being made by one, single secretary? Horrors!

Guys, really, this is scraping right through the bottom of the barrel. If your case must rest on this, who needs to worry?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), October 11, 1999.

From a thread that Flint ran away from: Flint said, a says

For example, we should be seeing problems by now much worse than we are. The predicted spike dates should have caused a lot more trouble than they did.

Already debated. This indicator is inconclusive.

And literally millions of technicians, programmers, engineers and technical managers should be well aware of our hopeless plight.

Many are. Wake up.

These folks have resources out of proportion to their numbers, so should have affected the stock market (still over 10,000),

Just because the y2k-induced pop of the market bubble hasn't occurred, you assume it simply won't? What an idiot.

and the market place (only a few key supplies were in short supply only for a short while).

It's called SPIN Flint. No major problems, a three day storm, leave your money in the bank, remember that?

They should be pulling enough cash out of the system to create a noticeable squeeze given the multiplier effect of the fractional reserve system, and it's not happening. They should be bidding up prices for rural properties, and no such thing.

See above.

They should be bailing in droves from their death marches, yet they are staying put and we read about no death marches.

They will stay as long as things are calm. Like I am doing.

Instead, we read that remediation projects are winding down all over.

According to inside sources, including Cory, in most cases this indicates that business has thrown in the towel.

Technical journals at the very least should be reflecting growing concerns, yet these journals confidently predict rising sales and profits through 2005 without even a dip.

Technical journals will be out of business if the mad dash for new technology hits a significant bump. You think they are interested in publishing their own obituary?

You almost never see a y2k editorial or op ed piece in such publications, which should have their fingers on the pulse of what the engineers and programmers' concerns are.

It's called spin Flint. You don't see many in the popular press either.

You can go on an on with this list.

Please do. And while you're lulling us to sleep, tell us again how well things are going in Paraguay.

-- a (a@a.a), October 11, 1999.

---

Flint

If you think that this is "scrapping the bottom of the barrel",

then go get a look at UncleBob's thread on Infoliant's latest.

http://greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001YsL

---

-- no talking please (breadlines@soupkitchen.gov), October 11, 1999.

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-- CD (not@here.com), October 11, 1999.

'a':

I replied to this sad case of illogical special pleading on the thread where you posted it.

no thinking please:

I read the infoliant information, and I'm not surprised. Of course there will be problems, and of course the "official positions" are mostly hot air. I'm simply trying to show that it's not reasonable to assume pro forma that the worst case is inevitable. You're probably aware that I've prepared for a much worse situation than I expect. I do believe in insurance.

And while we're at it, consider the "argument" that 'a' tries to make above. He argues that companies are so aware they're hosed that they've given up, and *at the same time* so unaware of their situation that they're fooled by spin! This is called FORCING the evidence to fit foregone conclusions, even if you're inconsistent and look stupid. 'a' is basically saying that if the coin comes up heads, he wins. If it comes up tails, you cheated when you flipped it, so he still wins. I'm surprised you buy into this "reasoning".

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), October 11, 1999.

Flunk,

Your full of it as a Christmas turkey.

///

-- no talking please (breadlines@soupkitchen.gov), October 11, 1999.

no thinking please:

Good, cogent, logical argument there. I can see you are looking at y2k from all angles. As usual.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), October 11, 1999.

ok, flint let me take a shot. you say companies cannot, on the one hand believe the spin, and quit eary, "throwing in the towel." you are right sir, if companies were just one guy named bob. But, if the little near sighted trolls in the basement have thrown up their hands, Will they tellt heir employers that they have jsut become obsolete? I don't think so. maybe the boyz from the boardrooms can convince themselves the reports fromt eh programmers are real, but maybe they would e surprised to see how many programmers have stocked up on "smeat products." Anyway, i'm not Assuming this IS happening, but that it could happen, therefor iunvalidating your little "corporate schizophrenia" model. It is possible for the left hand to not know what the right is doing. IMHO, the previaling denial-psychology, makes it all the more likely. (I can see Cory now, hiding in the guttted reamins of a Cray II eating P&J "sammiches" and playing a tape called "sounds of the computer" whenever the bean counters walk by.

PS do I get points for cuteness?

-- jeremiah (braponspdetroit@hotmail.com), October 11, 1999.