Jim lord spoke in the city--filled in some details---then said that the gov now is frantically trying to make up its mind whether to bring American citizens home from countries at risk from y2k--he named a long list----unknown to me were Norway, France and Germany and South America---besides the logistical nightmare of that endeavor, the issue also is that this could sink further the economies of the countries they are in--he stated that the decision to begin would have to be this month and starting the evacuation in Nov. at the latest. Got friends and loved ones---employees and their families off country? Time to send care packages? Ears perked---eyes focused---standing on the balls of my feet ready to move in any direction.

-- Rather Not Say (quietlyskulking@site.com), October 11, 1999

Answers

I don't think the issue is civilians -- the gov't can issue another one of its ambiguous "travel warnings" and leave it at that. The real question is whether the State Department feels the situation is dangerous enough to close its embassies and evacuate its employees. And ditto for the military -- which is one of the many reasons the Navy report unearthed by Jim Lord, a few weeks ago, is so interesting.

Forum regulars may recall that I raised this question -- primarily focusing on the military -- at the beginning of this year. I started a thread that asked WHEN the Defense Department would take action to initiate troop withdrawals if it decided that the local situation was untenable vis-a-vis Y2K. As I recall, the consensus was that most troop rotations occur in August, in order to relocate the soldiers' families and allow their kids to settle into a new school.

Well, I don't recall anything significant occurring in August ... and we're now moving into mid-October. Seems to me that if any such decisions are going to be made, with respect to State or DoD employees, it would have to be done by the end of this month, leaving November and December for an orderly withdrawal. Of course, it doesn't have to be an all-or-nothing proposition. Perhaps the dependents and non- essential employees will be quietly removed, leaving a skeleton crew of "critical" employees. Anyway, it is definitely something to watch.

A related issue for those of you who are parents of college-aged kids: the universities ultimately have to decide what to do about their "junior year abroad" programs. Some parents ALREADY have kids overseas; others will be sending their kids to study in Europe, Africa, or Asia for the second semester, beginning in January. Unless the universities have been VERY good about keeping secrets, it seems that most of them are blissfully unaware that they could be exposing their students to serious risk...

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), October 11, 1999.

The easiest way to evacuate ex-patriots and other citizens is to tell them the truth. They will take care of the problem themselves. Those that don't are on their own.

Special arrangements in an evacuation should be allowed and generous help given by the State Department through embassies, consulates, etc. Even overseas American Express Offices could serve in some capacity.

If adults are told what is expected of them and they don't act, then they get what they get. If life in that foreign location becomes dangerous and deadly, they can't expect the Marines to come charging up the street, just in the nick of time, like the cavalry in an old Hollywood western.

-- no talking please (breadlines@soupkitchen.gov), October 11, 1999.

Have y'all noticed that we've heard almost nothing from France, all this time?

Germany's dependent on Russian power.....

Our .gov has painted itself into a hideous corner. Forecasting Y2K mayhem on the international front, but having done little to ensure that Americans abroad GI and make plans for getting back home.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), October 11, 1999.

I cannot decide who did more damage to the fear-mongering efforts: Jim Lord or Stephen Poole! :) Seems to me they used different means to the same end.

Amused Regards,
Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), October 11, 1999.

Andy Ray,

*grin*

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), October 11, 1999.

Andy Ray & Cherri: looks more like a *grimace* from here.

It's about time. I've been wondering when you two would finally get nervous about Y2K.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), October 11, 1999.

Lisa, please look again. You had your doomer glasses on.

Ed, just because you know nothing about a topic doesn't mean that nothing is getting done. Remember your comment on the Russians coming to NORAD? Well the site completed last month dispite your knowing nothing about it.

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), October 11, 1999.

[Wondering to self: why are the pollies pouncing on this thread?]

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), October 11, 1999.

Mr. Yourdon, or if I may Ed,

The military actually has not begun doing any major pullouts, but there will be a hieghtened sense of alert, if not even a raise in the defcon level. Also, you are slightly incorrect as to the relocation of servicemembers families in the respect that usually the greatest numbers of the servicemen themselves are stationed in Germany in the late December/January timeframe. This is called the Exodus, due to the number of new people coming in, the old leaving, antd the masses just going stateside for a visit. The reason that families go in July August timeline is that it usually takes upwardly to 6-8 months to accquire command sponsorship of a family (thereby lengthening a tour by 365 days to 3 years instead of an unaccompanied 2 year tour) or even to have available housing for the fam to mobve into.

My contacts with my bro's in Deutchland have said however, that there has been a significant increase in the amount of Training in MOUT, and MOTW (Urban warefare and Missions other than War)for the troops, both foriegn and domestic (US and Allies). Whether or not this is due to the Y2K issue, or the continuing Bosnian/Kosovo Fiasco is unknown. The majority of my freinds are stationed in Hohenfels GE. This is known the Combat Manuver Traing Center. (also called the National Training Center of Europe,) where the 1-4 Infantry pose as the Opposing Force and pose as Civilians on the Battlefeild (COBs) for urban training.

The Boys in Duetchy-land have said as of late, they haven't heard )as of Saturday)m any word on any pullouts, but they have continued to train the Britsh, Irish, German and American troopies in serious urban control/combat...

-- Billy Boy (Rakkasn@yahoo.com), October 11, 1999.

Many churches have missionaries all over the world. The Mormon Church has over 50,000. Are they going to be called home? Or are they leaving them to fend for themselves?

-- Y2K ready (Y2Kready@aol.com), October 11, 1999.

Eds March thread revisited...

Likelihood of troop redeployments in 2nd half 1999?

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 000bbo

Lisa,

Sometimes their response is like reading tea leaves. Interesting to see the threads Maria, et. al. react to. Its a kind of predictable bellwether!

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), October 11, 1999.

Still thinking about economies at this 11th hour? The Titanic is about to sink and they're still oohing at the chandelier crystals ...

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), October 11, 1999.

It's the economy, stupid
starting to take on a whole new flavor ...

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), October 11, 1999.

Jim lord spoke in the city--filled in some details---then said that the Gov. now is frantically trying to make up its mind whether to bring American citizens home from countries at risk from y2k

Frantically?

I was born in Munich. I was an Air Force brat as well as being in myself. My Father was also stationed there again when I was 7 until I was 9. I still remember what happened when "we" were on "alert". I can guarantee you that "They" are not just now suddenly frantically trying to make up their minds about anything to do with dependents. Don't think for a minute the Government is even considering bring home American Troops because of Y2K.

Lisa,

It was a sardonic grin.

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoom.com), October 11, 1999.

Ah. That explains a lot Cherri. About your mindset.

Not unlike *some* of Maria's background... n'est-ce pas?

I'd be really surprised too, if the dot mil's were just starting to "think" about Y2K impact on dependants.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), October 11, 1999.

Diane, according to my bros in the military, ALL over the world at ALL to PX/BX and commiseries are and have been stocking up on the onhand stock due to E.O.Y. concerns...

-- Billy Boy (Rakkasn@Yahoo.com), October 11, 1999.

I too was a milbrat, went to high school in Stuttgart, when we lived at the US HQ there - Headquarters, European Command.

There are not nearly as many American troops in Germany as there were in the cold war, when there were 750,000 troops and dependents.

Nonetheless, what you have to consider here are the logistics. Bringing home tens of thousands of family members without service members would be a nightmare. In this case, they would be refugees. Where do they live? For how long? Where do the kiddos go to school?

Bringing them WITH the service members would be only slightly better.

During the 197373 Yom Kippur war, our little community was on high alert and very tense. The evacuation plans in case of a Russian invasion were a joke: keep the car gassed and a bag packed; when we tell you, drive to France. I think there was tacit acceptance that the first thing to happen would be an air or missile strike on the post.

In the current case, I think that the planners would find it easier to have everyone shelter-in-place, using the vast quantities of gear that are pre-positioned there. Keep everyone inside the wire, set up a chow hall and latrines, and tough it out.

Computers are stupid and they don't care.

-- Brady (brady@docuscribe.com), October 11, 1999.

They have apparently decided that it will be offical policy to have troops remain in place and try and take control of the mayhem that will result after rollover. I suppose their reasoning is 'better us than the communists'.

My guess is that the "Policemen to the world" are going to be very busy next year.

-- a (a@a.a), October 11, 1999.

Does Lisa=Diane? Would that make her Liane?

Diane, Diane, Diane,

Such vitriol, and you're so bad at it. Have you had your latte today?

Amused (even more) Regards,
Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), October 11, 1999.

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==========DON'T FEED THE TROLLS==========

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-- AndyRay666 (is.a.poopyhead@poopy.head), October 11, 1999.