A wake-up letter for fence-sitters.

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

This is what we have been e-mailing folks. Planning to deliver it locally soon. (Yeah, at night). (Immed. neighborhood covered months ago. Some, at least, are preparing. Others still on fence.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Y2K - Coming soon to your place? Most Americans seem to have been putting off preparing for Y2K. Partly due to being unsure just what will actually happen and hoping some official voice will give instructions. And partly due to inertia. Those of us in both categories should now listen up, followed quickly by gear up. The U.S. Senate Committee on Y2K released their final report to the public on September 22nd. It is a 288 page document with detailed sections covering utilities, healthcare, telecommunications, transportation, financial services, general government, general business, the food industry, international preparedness, litigation, personal preparedness, and 3beyond Y2K.2 The Senate wrote and released this report to inform all U.S. Citizens of the likely and potential problems that Y2K brings to us. However, our news media have for the most part neglected to inform us of even the existence of the report, let alone tell us its contents. If you wish to inform yourself, you can obtain the report in a number of ways. 1) From the internet at: www.senate.gov/~y2k/documents/100dayrpt/ 2) Someone posted most sections of the report in HTML format (easier to read online) that is available at: http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001SFC 3) The report is available in bound copy from the Government Printing Office for $28 including shipping. Stock number: 052-070-07231-8. Credit cards accepted. Phone 202-512-1800 M-F 6:30 AM to 4 PM our time. Fax: 202-512-2250 Write: Government Printing Office, P.O. Box 371954, Pittsburgh,PA 15250-7954. The following quotes are from the sections on Personal Preparedness. 3The Committee has worked to provide the most accurate information possible on the Y2K problem and its probable effects. Where industries and government agencies have been less than candid, the Committee has taken every possible measure to extract the necessary information to satisfy the public9s right to know and to enable reasonable personal contingency planning. Despite the Committee9s efforts, dissatisfaction remains with the information provided by the government and other sources and reported by the media....2 3Any interrupted operation of the critical sectors discussed in this report may disrupt the lives of those affected. Through the efforts of thousands of hardworking people across the country, tremendous progress has been made toward preventing such interruptions, but no responsible person can rule out the possibility that such interruptions could occur. That being the case, communities and individuals across the country must be prepared with personal Y2K contingency plans.2 3 There will almost certainly be ... disruptions domestically, and more widespread disruptions abroad, but no one can predict where those disruptions will arise and how serious they will be..... This is why it is important for communities and individuals to take charge of their own Y2K lives, and to do it in responsible ways.... Such preparations can mitigate the effects of disruptions in critical services.2 3Y2K requires an insurance policy against its unforeseen consequences. That insurance policy comes in the form of reasonable preparation... The Committee strongly believes that responsible citizens should begin now to educate themselves about the degree to which they need to prepare, and to begin making their purchases now, over the course of the next few months, instead of waiting until the last week of 1999.2 3The Committee has no data to suggest that the U.S. will experience nationwide social or economic collapse. Nonetheless, disruptions will occur and in some cases those disruptions will be significant. The international situation will certainly be more tumultuous.2 Regarding utilities: 3Local and regional outages remain a distinct possibility. .... Many electric utilities will not complete their remediation activities until later in the year.... There are no comprehensive studies concerning the number of entities that would have to fail to put the grid at risk, but some experts suggest that it may be a very small percentage if these failures occur in key locations. .... The Y2K preparedness of the refineries is particularly critical. .... The Committee remains concerned about the Y2K status of countries from which the U.S. imports oil. .... The oil and gas industry remains a concern. ..Nearly 500 [oil and gas] companies do not plan to complete repairs until late 1999... .... The impact that a lack of readiness on the part of wastewater companies could potentially have on its neighboring water treatment facilities could be severe.... ...only 14% of [wastewater]respondents reporting readiness....is a cause for great concern.... Only 67% reported they had completed the assessment stage as of July 1999...we are alarmed by these statistics.2 Regarding international situation: 3The Y2K preparations in many countries of economic and strategic importance to the U.S. are inadequate. Of greatest concern are Russia [3loose cannon2 nuclear plants and weapons], China [ half the stuff in Wal-Mart], Italy, and several oil-producing countries.... [also Japan, Venezuela and Mexico] A significant potential exists for the Y2K-induced problems of other nations to wash up on our shores, whether in the form of recession, lost jobs, or requests for international assistance [starving Russians]. .... Severe short and long-term disruptions to supply chains are likely to occur. .... Y2K-related disruptions suffered by our international friends and neighbors have the potential to raise the issue of humanitarian aid on an unparalled level.2 Regarding general government: 3The Department of Defense remains behind schedule in completing its systems remediation and is at considerable risk of being unable to successfully meet the Year 2000 deadline. [No way they will make it.] .... As late as July, 1999 as few as one in four counties, only two major U.S. cities, and only three states were reporting ...Y2K readiness. .... Some government entities may not have been entirely frank with their assessments or planning status, as they were finding it easier to report Y2K readiness than to deliver bad news. .... Local governments must also plan for large public gatherings and the potential for increased criminal activity and/or civil unrest. .... Small towns and rural counties... continue to discount the possibility of Y2K disruptions. The vulnerability of such small entities is related to their dependence on larger governmental entities, including utilities and federal- or state-run assistance programs. The ability of larger entities to assist local governments will likely be stretched to the limit by widespread Y2K problems. .... The impact on local economies could be severe over a six-month period. .... The Committee remains greatly concerned about the ability of local governments to solve Y2K problems and doubts that adequate contingency planning has occurred. Regarding business: 3Many small and medium-sized businesses are extremely unprepared for Y2K disruptions. .... It is very likely that the failure of SMEs will have a ripple effect through the supply chain that will affect their bigger business partners. .... 25% of food supply companies have not addressed supply chain and embedded systems issues. ....Half the firms will be conducting remediation efforts until almost December 31. .... The Chemical industry warrants attention because accidents can have such devastating effects. .... An estimated 85 million Americans -more than 30% of the population- live within 5 miles of one of the 66,000 sites...in the chemical-handling sector. [There is a] lack of ...information on the overall readiness..of this vast and potentially very dangerous sector. .... [Regarding large U.S.-based corporations,} one in ten respondents admitted they will not complete their Y2K work until the Year 2000 or beyond. A full 33% were not meeting their schedule. .... There is significant potential for cascading failures in global corporations which have interdependent parts that span multiple borders.2 Obviously, these are just bits and pieces from the Senate9s 288 page report. You can check out the rest for yourself. And you can prepare now to to ensure that you and your loved ones will be warm and safe, with sufficient food water, etc. come January, which is not too far away. If you would like websites for information/updates on the situation, just ask. We also will gladly forward to you some pages of the best preparation ideas/sources we have found, which will save you a considerable amount of time and money, taking a lot of stress out of getting prepared. Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst, Your friends P.S. Even with the U.S Senate telling us that preparedness is our necessary insurance against Y2K, there will be those who choose not to be prepared, just as there are those who drive without any insurance. It9s fine if you are lucky, and if you are not lucky you pay dearly. We hope that those who choose not to prepare are very lucky. And we also hope they are prepared for all possible consequences of that decision in case they are not lucky. If things do get rough the 3ants2 won9t be able to help the 3grasshoppers 3 much, even if they want to. Too few ants, too many grasshoppers. Choose thoughtfully.

-- Shivani Arjuna (SArjuna@aol.com), October 10, 1999

Answers

It's too late for mass mailings to work - not enough time and the public has been anestitized. One-on-one contacts may still be effective for friends, family and coworkers, but I've given up on "chatting up" the neighbors. Storing an extra 50 lbs of rice is easier than trying to talk to those sleeping boneheads.

-- a (a@a.a), October 10, 1999.

Too wordy. Most people will glance at it and figure it's something they'll read when they get around to it.

-- Itol D. Youso (mrosscorecomm@hotmail.com), October 10, 1999.

I'm fairly well know in my neighborhood and I put together a booklet (15 pages) from various websites and have distributed it 3 times to all the 100 homes in my neighborhood.

3 parties, 1 parade, 1 fire,1 kid getting hit by a car, and almost every night I walk my dogs-no response. Not even a bite.

Good luck!!

-- Johnny (JLJTM@BELLSOUTH.NET), October 10, 1999.


Much more articulate than my article, but mine does get to the point quicker.

Y2K might kill you

-- Jim Jim (JJ@driioc.com), October 10, 1999.


Shivani,

This is a very well done piece. Thank you so much for taking the time to post it. It would be great if one of the sysops could reformat the HTML for us to make it more readable (and printable).

Yes, it is very late. Yes, there are *many* who will not take even the most minimal 3-day storm precautions no matter what is said. But, I still believe there are some who would, and a report presented with calm reason (such as yours) could help. Even if some will only prepare for 14 days...who knows? Maybe, for some, it will be enough to make the difference between discomfort and more dire consequences.

Thanks again.

-- (RUOK@yesiam.com), October 10, 1999.



Excellent letter.

As for its being "too wordy", the critique is valid. It's too bad that most Americans cannot be bothered to read more than 30 words in one sitting (save sports articles). This is the major problem with y2k for the masses: it doesn't fit into a sound bite (but the failures will).

Thank you for posting the letter.

-- Me (me@me.me), October 10, 1999.


Shivani,

I'm sending it out to my E-mail friends and family anyway. What the heck, worth a try. I still care! Thanks for taking the trouble and the time to do this. If it saves a few people around, then it has been worth it. Also, it is NOT too late to go to the grocery store and buy food and water for a few months.

-- Debi (LongTimeLurker@shy.com), October 10, 1999.


I think this is a great letter. Maybe with key individual sentences numbered and in bold. Much of the specific information in the report was ignored by journalists in their general wrap-up of the story when the report was released.

And media format these days does not lend itself to very many specifics. But the press could have done better. Don't recall seeing some of these key points in the papers. This info (i.e. wastewater plants etc) needs to be shared. I for one am going to use it. Thanx.

-- (Oxsys@aol.com), October 11, 1999.


Shivani's letter reformatted:

Y2K - Coming soon to your place?

Most Americans seem to have been putting off preparing for Y2K. Partly due to being unsure just what will actually happen and hoping some official voice will give instructions. And partly due to inertia.

Those of us in both categories should now listen up, followed quickly by gear up.

The U.S. Senate Committee on Y2K released their final report to the public on September 22nd. It is a 288 page document with detailed sections covering utilities, healthcare, telecommunications, transportation, financial services, general government, general business, the food industry, international preparedness, litigation, personal preparedness, and "beyond Y2K." The Senate wrote and released this report to inform all U.S. Citizens of the likely and potential problems that Y2K brings to us. However, our news media have for the most part neglected to inform us of even the existence of the report, let alone tell us its contents.

If you wish to inform yourself, you can obtain the report in a number of ways.

1) From the internet at: www.senate.gov/~y2k/documents/100dayrpt/

2) Someone posted most sections of the report in HTML format (easier to read online) that is available at: http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=0 01SFC

3) The report is available in bound copy from the Government Printing Office for $28 including shipping. Stock number: 052-070-07231-8. Credit cards accepted. Phone 202-512-1800 M-F 6:30 AM to 4 PM our time. Fax: 202-512-2250 Write: Government Printing Office, P.O. Box 371954, Pittsburgh,PA 15250-7954.

The following quotes are from the sections on Personal Preparedness.

"The Committee has worked to provide the most accurate information possible on the Y2K problem and its probable effects. Where industries and government agencies have been less than candid, the Committee has taken every possible measure to extract the necessary information to satisfy the public's right to know and to enable reasonable personal contingency planning. Despite the Committee's efforts, dissatisfaction remains with the information provided by the government and other sources and reported by the media...."

"Any interrupted operation of the critical sectors discussed in this report may disrupt the lives of those affected. Through the efforts of thousands of hardworking people across the country, tremendous progress has been made toward preventing such interruptions, but no responsible person can rule out the possibility that such interruptions could occur. That being the case, communities and individuals across the country must be prepared with personal Y2K contingency plans."

" There will almost certainly be ... disruptions domestically, and more widespread disruptions abroad, but no one can predict where those disruptions will arise and how serious they will be..... This is why it is important for communities and individuals to take charge of their own Y2K lives, and to do it in responsible ways.... Such preparations can mitigate the effects of disruptions in critical services."

"Y2K requires an insurance policy against its unforeseen consequences. That insurance policy comes in the form of reasonable preparation... The Committee strongly believes that responsible citizens should begin now to educate themselves about the degree to which they need to prepare, and to begin making their purchases now, over the course of the next few months, instead of waiting until the last week of 1999."

"The Committee has no data to suggest that the U.S. will experience nationwide social or economic collapse. Nonetheless, disruptions will occur and in some cases those disruptions will be significant. The international situation will certainly be more tumultuous."

Regarding utilities: "Local and regional outages remain a distinct possibility. .... Many electric utilities will not complete their remediation activities until later in the year.... There are no comprehensive studies concerning the number of entities that would have to fail to put the grid at risk, but some experts suggest that it may be a very small percentage if these failures occur in key locations. .... The Y2K preparedness of the refineries is particularly critical. .... The Committee remains concerned about the Y2K status of countries from which the U.S. imports oil. .... The oil and gas industry remains a concern. ..Nearly 500 [oil and gas] companies do not plan to complete repairs until late 1999... .... The impact that a lack of readiness on the part of wastewater companies could potentially have on its neighboring water treatment facilities could be severe.... ...only 14% of [wastewater]respondents reporting readiness....is a cause for great concern.... Only 67% reported they had completed the assessment stage as of July 1999...we are alarmed by these statistics."

Regarding international situation: "The Y2K preparations in many countries of economic and strategic importance to the U.S. are inadequate. Of greatest concern are Russia ["loose cannon" nuclear plants and weapons], China [ half the stuff in Wal-Mart], Italy, and several oil-producing countries.... [also Japan, Venezuela and Mexico] A significant potential exists for the Y2K-induced problems of other nations to wash up on our shores, whether in the form of recession, lost jobs, or requests for international assistance [starving Russians]. .... Severe short and long-term disruptions to supply chains are likely to occur. .... Y2K-related disruptions suffered by our international friends and neighbors have the potential to raise the issue of humanitarian aid on an unparalled level."

Regarding general government: "The Department of Defense remains behind schedule in completing its systems remediation and is at considerable risk of being unable to successfully meet the Year 2000 deadline. [No way they will make it.] .... As late as July, 1999 as few as one in four counties, only two major U.S. cities, and only three states were reporting ...Y2K readiness. .... Some government entities may not have been entirely frank with their assessments or planning status, as they were finding it easier to report Y2K readiness than to deliver bad news. .... Local governments must also plan for large public gatherings and the potential for increased criminal activity and/or civil unrest. .... Small towns and rural counties... continue to discount the possibility of Y2K disruptions. The vulnerability of such small entities is related to their dependence on larger governmental entities, including utilities and federal- or state-run assistance programs. The ability of larger entities to assist local governments will likely be stretched to the limit by widespread Y2K problems. .... The impact on local economies could be severe over a six-month period. .... The Committee remains greatly concerned about the ability of local governments to solve Y2K problems and doubts that adequate contingency planning has occurred.

Regarding business: "Many small and medium-sized businesses are extremely unprepared for Y2K disruptions. .... It is very likely that the failure of SMEs will have a ripple effect through the supply chain that will affect their bigger business partners. .... 25% of food supply companies have not addressed supply chain and embedded systems issues. ....Half the firms will be conducting remediation efforts until almost December 31. .... The Chemical industry warrants attention because accidents can have such devastating effects. .... An estimated 85 million Americans -more than 30% of the population- live within 5 miles of one of the 66,000 sites...in the chemical-handling sector. [There is a] lack of ...information on the overall readiness..of this vast and potentially very dangerous sector. .... [Regarding large U.S.-based corporations,} one in ten respondents admitted they will not complete their Y2K work until the Year 2000 or beyond. A full 33% were not meeting their schedule. .... There is significant potential for cascading failures in global corporations which have interdependent parts that span multiple borders."

Obviously, these are just bits and pieces from the Senate's 288 page report. You can check out the rest for yourself.

And you can prepare now to to ensure that you and your loved ones will be warm and safe, with sufficient food water, etc. come January, which is not too far away.

If you would like websites for information/updates on the situation, just ask. We also will gladly forward to you some pages of the best preparation ideas/sources we have found, which will save you a considerable amount of time and money, taking a lot of stress out of getting prepared.

Hoping for the best,

preparing for the worst,

Your friends

P.S. Even with the U.S Senate telling us that preparedness is our necessary insurance against Y2K, there will be those who choose not to be prepared, just as there are those who drive without any insurance. It's fine if you are lucky, and if you are not lucky you pay dearly. We hope that those who choose not to prepare are very lucky. And we also hope they are prepared for all possible consequences of that decision in case they are not lucky. If things do get rough the "ants" won't be able to help the "grasshoppers " much, even if they want to. Too few ants, too many grasshoppers. Choose thoughtfully.

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), October 11, 1999.


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