The Big Picture

greenspun.com : LUSENET : Electric Utilities and Y2K : One Thread

Sometimes in approaching a problem it is important to step back and ask very basic questions. The engineering equivalent to this might be defining terms, in programming it is akin to a declaration of variables. This is, amidst the cacophony of Y2K voices, a task that seems to be undertaken poorly and infrequently as regards Y2K. Its bearing is on the task of remediation which might also have application within the field of electrical production and distribution.

The year 2000 problem is a direct result of an inadequate definition of the calender for the uses to which it is applied. What comprises an adequate definition? If this were a change from year 1799 to year 1800 an adequate solution might comprise all years being described with three digits. Because of the millennium change an adequate definition of the year requires four digits. What's more to truthfully and fully define the years proper place in the calender reference must be made to the origin of that calender. This is where things become uncomfortable. What is the origin of the calender to which the date is referenced and anchored? Unpopular though it may be in certain times, the origin of the calender makes reference to Christian faith. Like many other calenders there is reference to the birth of a King as year zero. Unlike other calendars however, and making exception for the inexactitude of human endeavors, the Christian calender has as its source the moment when the Eternal entered the world of the temporal. This is a mystery and points out the inadequacy of human reason to fully describe at this time certain basic human experiences such as the passage of time. All well and good you say, but what bearing do your beliefs have on my Y2K problem and even more specifically on the stability of the electrical grid? The relevance may be seen in the following.

It is unwise to attempt to use a device to attempt to further the good of the community without understanding the nature of that device. One wouldn't get in an airplane that was supposed to have a problem without trying to understand what the problem might be and to do this one would need to delve into what comprised an airplane. There is a dangerous problem with the calender it would be wise to delve into what is the calender. One might disagree with the definition of that calender but still chose to use it for own's own good, thus an atheist will sign and date his name on a legal document. Put simply one cannot fix something until they discern and agree upon what it is they are trying to fix.

Certainly, the problem of omitting the two first digits of the year was not meant as a conscious slight to the Christian belief being obliquely referred to. Let's face it the problem is profoundly humiliating in large part because of how mundane it is while remaining quite dangerous. This seeming insult to our reason holds a second important point about remediation. Namely if one accepts the Christian calender and wishes to continue to use it for own's good one accepts that the origin of that calender declares an event greater than human reason. One may deny the truth of that assertion, but if they use that calender they must realize then that they are in danger of falling into logical fallacies. A key point then which logically follows is that if reason alone is insufficient to describe the calender, reason alone is insufficient to remediate problems brought about in using the calender. This is not to deny that reason is a great tool for good or the important role it plays in attempting to resolve our concerns. What then is needed in addition to reason?

Sting, a pop musician, in one of his songs sings "Never saw no miracle of science that didn't go from a blessing to a curse". On this forum we wonder has the blessing of cheap abundant electrical power become a curse. But even more generally, with an overemphasis on amoral science we have pushed aside time honored wisdom concerning how to equitably run a society. Indeed some people's concerns seem centered primarily on how will an evidently fragile society react to the event of the millennium date change. These concerns, and they are I believe valid, attest themselves to the inadequacy of science and reason to remediating the ills of society or to formulating a means of equitable governance.

The solution to these problems lies in a vocabulary that is hardly used anymore. Namely, the solution lies in the virtues espoused throughout history as cures for ills. Specifically in this case what is required is prudence. The catechesis of my faith defines this as "the virtue that disposes practical reason to discern our true good in every circumstance and to choose the right means of achieving it". Further prudence, "guides the other virtues by setting rule and measure ... With the help of this virtue we apply moral principles to particular cases without error and overcome doubts about the good to achieve and the evil to avoid." Also required is Fortitude, "the moral virtue that ensures firmness in difficulties and constancy in pursuit of the good.". The appropriateness of these definitions is attested to throughout scripture. Reason applied to remediation under the guidance of these virtues leads to success, without regard for them it leads to more of what we have seen in this century, war, pestilence, famine and misery. This is a heavy post and not meant to lay any burdens on anyone but only to point out a means for true hope in very dark times.

-- Anonymous, October 10, 1999


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