Who are the "likely" voters?

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One of the problems with polling is determining the likelihood of the individual being polled actually voting. I-695 is having a very interesting effect, not normally seen by proposals on the ballot. People are delaying purchase (or in some cases registration) of vehicles in the hope of I-695 passing. And this has already started, three months before it would likely take effect. I would submit that this is creating a pool of "very likely" voters, all of whom are in the pro-695 camp. If someone is sufficiently motivated to defer vehicle use for three months, I would think they would be HIGHLY likely to vote on election day. They might additionally join some other highly motivated individuals, those who will receive their MVET bills immediately before the election (who will have their noses rubbed in an inherently irrational tax) and those who will be looking at getting their MVET bills in the Jan-Feb timeframe, and will therefore enjoy the immediate prospect of this cost avoidance. From KXLY in Spokane: I-695 Impacting Car Sales (10/7/99) Initiative 695 is having a big impact on Washington state. With nearly a month to go before voters decide the fate of the measure, purchases of new cars are being postponed and newcomers are putting off registering their vehicles at the risk of big fines. The measure would eliminate the state's motor vehicle excise tax in favor of a flat registration fee of 30 dollars a vehicle, and it would require voter approval for any increase in a state or local tax or government fee. Jack Frazier, a Woodinville retiree, is letting his 1995 Jeep sit idle rather than renew the license tabs this month. If Initiative 695 passes, he says he and his wife can keep sharing their other car until January and then register the Jeep under the new law -- saving about 550 dollars. http://www.kxly.com/viewstory.asp?ID=5588&ProgramOption=News

-- Craig Carson (craigcar@crosswinds.net), October 08, 1999

Answers

Craig--

I see four potential scenarios in the upcoming election.

1) The high poll numbers convince the pro695 people that they don't need to vote. Conversely, the anti695 people decide they really need to be heard. The initiative takes a powder and there's a surprisingly strong showing by progressive candidates.

2) The high poll numbers convince the pro695 people to go out and vote. Conversely, the anti695 people decide they're screwed and stay home. The initiative wins resoundingly and there's a surprisingly strong showing by conservative candidates.

3) The high poll numbers cause both camps to turn out in droves. The initiative passes 60-40.

4) The high poll numbers cause both camps to stay home. The initiative still passes 60-40.

It's pure speculation, but I think the new car (pun intended) is behind door #3.

Okay, now for the fun ones :-)

1) Oprah has a show on one-legged women who are afraid of elevators and can't work. I-695 passes with 99% of the vote. Donations to the OLWWAAECW action fund skyrocket. Bill Bradley takes up the OLWWAAECW cause, paints Al Gore as a chauvinist elevator rider, and wins the Democratic nomination by promising to make OLWWAAECW's a protected class under federal anti-discrimination laws.

2) The USA network runs a 24 hour marathon presentation of John Stossel's "Is America #1?". I-695 dies a horrible death. However, all is not lost: few people still believe the myth about the US's increased income inequality and John Stossel receives a contract for a weekly show on a major network.

3) Gary Locke presents a plausible case explaining how I-695 will result in destruction of cable TV service in the state of Washington. I-695 gets 3 votes and an angry lynch mob burns down Tim Eyman's house.

-- Brad (knotwell@my-deja.com), October 08, 1999.


Me. I could give a rat's rear about the money, but the ability of THE PEOPLE to control future tax/fee increases makes I-695 all worthwhile

-- zowie (zowie@hotmail.com), October 13, 1999.

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