The chance of failure graphgreenspun.com : LUSENET : Electric Utilities and Y2K : One Thread |
http://www.y2knewswire.com/chanceoffailure.htmThis graph illustrates what the percentage of failure would be, based on mission criticals to percentage of incomplete remediations. It is rather scary, when you dig into it a bit. For instance, let's say that your nuke plant has 200 mission criticals to remediate, and 4% of things are yet to be completed at the time of the rollover. There is therefore a 100% chance that the whole plant will fail. Take a gander at this, as it is rather alarming..
-- Anonymous, October 07, 1999
Or more explicitly, given 200 independent events each with a 4% chance of failure the chance of no failures would be[1-((1-0.04)Exponent200)]
1-(0.96E200)
1-.000285
= 0.9997 or 99.97% or a 3 in ten thousand chance of no failures.
Not that there is any firm (or for that matter other) basis for making predictions on any event for which no prior models are available. Statistics is fun but can lead you down some weird roads. Not to get Gordon, going, but, James Watson, (discovered double helix of DNA along with Watson) felt DNA was so unlikely that it must have been seeded on Earth by older races from the center of the galaxy. He wrote on a book on the subject some decades ago, which last I checked was still in large libraries. I also believe, though not certain on this one, that his son, poor fella, was committed to a sanatarium for at least part of his life. Ah statistics.
Incidently, could someone be nice enough to explain to me how to insert formating codes into a posting? It's embarrasing answering all these well-formated posts.
-- Anonymous, October 07, 1999
Paul,Well, you know where my hot button is, don't you? Watson, huh. Very respectable name in the research field to be making such statements. I think it deserves more attention than it normally gets. Actually, it is just these sort of statements by reputable people that brings out the amatuer detective in me, the Columbo syndrome, if you please. These kind of eye opener statements are what started me looking into Y2k and Electric Utilities as well, and when I found this exceptional site being offered by Rick, well, I was hooked. (How's that Rick?) And, Paul, you will notice that I am making no additional comments about the ET stuff, and it's a real challenge for my self control. :-)
-- Anonymous, October 07, 1999
to format use html / learn by clicking on view then source.Imitate the ones you like.
chance of failure graph
-- Anonymous, October 07, 1999
Fast aside-"Not to get Gordon, going, but, James Watson, (discovered double helix of DNA along with Watson) felt DNA was so unlikely that it must have been seeded on Earth by older races from the center of the galaxy..."
There are (earth) fungii that can travel intact thru deep space - their shells tough enough to withstand cosmic rays,etc. Psychoactive ones, no less. (see Terrence McKenna, etal, for details on workable theories...)
-- Anonymous, October 07, 1999
Invasion of the Giant pschoactive Shrooms. ET is a fun diversion but like Y2K suffers from a lack of hard data, unless you wish to consider ancient scriptural reference to the Napthali (Mars Needs Women) or Jacob's name changing wrestling match with an Angel.
-- Anonymous, October 10, 1999
"Invasion of the Giant pschoactive Shrooms. ET is a fun diversion but like Y2K suffers from a lack of hard data, unless you wish to consider ancient scriptural reference to the Napthali (Mars Needs Women) or Jacob's name changing wrestling match with an Angel."-- PD (PaulDMaherGross oversimplification, condescending tone, lack experential data, beyond 3rd grade linear logic. No sense of REAL integration of many diverse areas of thought. Failing grades...(betterlucknexttimeif there is one....)
-- Anonymous, October 11, 1999
Gross oversimplification, condescending tone, lack experential data, beyond 3rd grade linear logic. No sense of REAL integration of many diverse areas of thought. Failing grades...(betterlucknexttimeif there is one....)-- off topic, reverent to Biodiversity-consciousness (tiktok@kloks.kam), October 11, 1999.
Bad, Trip?
-- Anonymous, October 11, 1999
Not a merely a bad trip, baby. (paul M, et whoever...) Just the worst possibile Reality experentials of logical feedback known to highest PURE science - - - thankyou, anyway. And please involve eco-biology Gai-an mysticalscience in that equasion. Without that - we are are all beyond stupid.Most likely far beyond 'your' conception --- too small and linear.,, I an speaking, One must study the roots of highest physics & cosmology ---- in order to comprehend the fatal falacies. Inherent, therein.
I am wearied and bored by all your superficial idiocy. You can't see the forest for the trees.
-- Anonymous, October 16, 1999
Alright, baby. Hang in there. We may need you.
-- Anonymous, October 17, 1999
piqued my curiosity with this comment:"And please involve eco-biology Gai-an mysticalscience in that equasion."
are you referring here to gaea as a personification of the living earth being seeded by ouranus and drawing a parallel?
-- Anonymous, October 17, 1999