The recent rise of gold prices have created a fair amount of discussion on the forum. Is the increase in gold prices due to Y2K fears? Probably not. More likely, buyers see gold as undervalued and inflation fears have crept up during the past few months. There are also speculative buyers pushing the market.

Is gold a "critical" part of Y2K preparations? Not really. If you have prepared for a "worst case" scenario, you should be relatively self sufficient for some period of time. During an economic collapse, what would you buy with gold coins? Conversely, what would you sell in exchange for gold? I imagine most folks would hold onto food and other items with high "use" values.

Considering a major collapse, barter goods probably make more sense than gold. In hard times, goods with a high "use" value often command premium prices. For example, during social unrest, guns and ammunition are often highly prized.

Still, gold is a "hot" topic on this forum. This may be due, in part, to the political philosophies of regular posters. Some of the Y2K pessimists are anti-Federal Reserve, anti-fractional reserve banking and pro-gold standard. For them, gold imposes a discipline that any government or central bank lacks. In addition, some "gold bugs" come with a list of "international banking cabals" and other conspiracies.

The fascination with gold is difficult to explain in purely economic terms. While it has been valuable throughout the course of history so have other precious metals, gems and other commodities. As historical trivia, once upon a time in Europe, gold and pepper were traded ounce for ounce.

In terms of Y2K preparation, the average reader might benefit from the example of the Spanish mercantilists. The Spanish learned (the hard way) that gold is not wealth. The real wealth of nations is productive capacity. In micro-terms, you are better served by having productive capacity (skills, knowledge, land, tools, etc.) than by having gold. Beyond the routine "preparations" discussed on this forum, the reader is advised to consider what "investment" might best serve him (or her) after the rollover.

Mercantilism is also part of the "fair trade" arguments a la Pat Buchanan. In short, mercantilists believed in "protecting" trade through tariffs and other policies. Most mainstream economic thinkers support "free" tradean argument elegantly made by David Ricardo. Applying this to Y2K preparation I suggest that you are better served by trading with neighbors than by pursuing an "isolationist" policy.

Gold may be a good speculative investment but what does a "fast buck" have to do with Y2K? (And remember, you have to find someone to buy to take any profits.) Gold may be a reasonable inflation hedge but so are other hard commodities (some with a high "use" value.) If you are simply concerned about Y2K preparations, gold need not play a pivotal role there are other items that will serve your purpose.

Finally, anticipating some questions I do not know whether the economic downturn will be inflationary or deflationary. The best preparation is a "straddle" position of eliminating your debt, increasing your "productive capacity" and staying diversified in your investments.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), October 04, 1999

Answers

Are you still shorting gold, Ken?

Seriously, it's driving you nuts that you've been calling it a shiny metal now for how long...6 or 8 months, maybe a year?

Now it's finally on the ups (I think it's Y2K related, but you disagree), and you want people to ignore it.

I suggest that you see the movie "Three Kings" which is currently showing in local theatres. There you will see the wisdom behind having guns, grub, AND gold.

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), October 04, 1999.

Decker commented:

"Gold may be a good speculative investment but what does a "fast buck" have to do with Y2K? (And remember, you have to find someone to buy to take any profits.) "

Well Ken, what do you attribute your ESP to ?? Are you suggesting that those who invest in gold are only looking for a fast buck ?? After a 20 year bear market I believe gold and silver will be on an upward cycle for many years to come thanks to those IDIOTS who sold it short for so many years. Market manipulation does not work forever.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@tottacc.com), October 04, 1999.

It seems to me that gold and silver are a prudent thing to have if you don't know what will happen. In a financial meltdown of sorts, it's hard to know whether currency or precious metals will be the best way to preserve wealth. It seems prudent to have some of both.

While gold is hardly the most important Y2K prep, it's not a foolish one if you can afford it.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), October 04, 1999.

I've never shorted gold, nor do I have any interest in playing commodities. As for profits, I am a capitalist... congratulations on any profits you earn. As you might have learned from my earlier post, gold will have to reach $500 just to catch up with inflation from the early 1980s. Now, do I want people to ignore it? Hey, it's their money... but I do question the value of gold in terms of Y2K preparation. Finally, having gone through SERE, I find the 3 "G's" overrated. Knowledge, skills and positive mental attitude make the difference in a survival situation.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), October 04, 1999.

Ah, Ray, it must be the darn international cabal keeping gold prices low. Hmmm... they also kept mining stocks off 30% for the past two decades while the market grew roughly 270%. Who knows, Ray, we may see a speculative bubble in gold like in the early 1980s. Just remember, it ain't a profit until you sell it.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), October 04, 1999.

Whatever SERE is Ken, most people won't have time to experience the remarkable revelations which it afforded you.

They can, however, purchase lots of grub. Some of them can still buy at least one gun for personal (or familial) defense, and a few MAY have some funds left over that they would consider diversifying partly in cash and partly in gold.

Why do you continue to have a problem with this?

I never would have considered owning physical gold before six months ago. I never foresaw that there could be sufficient uncertainty anywhere in the world which would prompt me to purchase any. But now I have diversified my portfolio to include some American Eagles. Why? Because it's a safer bet for ME than not owning any.

No one else on this forum has any clue what a mercantilist is or why gold should have one particular value or another on any given day. Most of them can probably figure out, however, that people buy gold during uncertain times as a way to store wealth. They did it a LOT during the uncertain times around 1979 and 1980. They're starting to do it a LOT again now. Get over it.

I know you never shorted gold, Ken. It's called a joke.

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), October 04, 1999.

Darn, I hate this growing old thing. I could have sworn that I have heard stories of people with gold,prospering during the depression. Of course, there are certain pollys that are of the opinion that all doomers think it will be a "10", and in that case, gold may indeed not have much wealth attached to it.

However, for the umteenth time, the majority of doomers think y2k will be somewhere in the middle, and in that case, gold may be worth a great deal.

Damn pollies, always paint with the same wide brush.

-- Mike (Boxman9186@aol.com), October 04, 1999.

Well now I know you are some kind of government plant. Thanks for opening your mouth and removing all doubt!

-- Johnny (JLJTM@BELLSOUTH.NET), October 04, 1999.

Comments on gold are out of my field but..

I went to Turkey with a friend to see the 1999 Solar Eclipse. He brought some gold coins with him. He was interested in buying some rugs. Turkey has a highly inflationary economy and he thought hed might be able to get a better deal with gold then either $ or the local currency. He tried to bargain with a rug merchant but the merchant wanted him to go to a gold dealer and exchange the gold for either Turkish Lira or American $. Even after the dealer verified (a word beloved by people on this forum) the gold coins were genuine the merchant still wanted either local currency or (preferably) greenbacks. My friend would have had to pay the dealer a commission to convert the gold into $s and so would have lost any advantage. He came back to the US with all his gold.

He said he was going to try and sell it to by the end of the year and he would find buyers because of Y2K.

Question. If someone offers you gold after the big meltdown for whatever it is you have. How do you know its real gold?

If you are buying coins for investment purposes buy those that have a numismatic value. They might be worth something over the long haul and tend to do even better then gold, silver, etc in an inflationary environment.

You can do the next Power Question Mr. Decker.

-- The Engineer (The Engineer@tech.com), October 04, 1999.

Ken;

I guess I would have to dissagree with your opinion that gold (or silver) should not be a part of personal Y2K preperations. Only in the WORST 10+++ is civilization going to eat itself. There are many possible outcomes which while bad in their own right, do not preclude the desire to maintain some level of current assets.

If the fiat money system goes down (maybe it will, maybe not) then an investment in some form of physical asset is an option to consider. Those who got through the Depresion in good order were those who figured out how to preseve their assets. Some bought land, others gold stocks, still others bought the banks. If you are trying to insure against some of the issues that Y2K may bring, gold is a good option to consider.

If you do not have a lot of assets, then silver might be a better choice. (Water and food are good choices too)

Keep your powder dry.

It will get worse before it gets better....

-- Helium (Heliumavid@yahoo.com), October 04, 1999.

Ken you are always talking about "unrestricted raw land" I just have a quick question for you.

Is "unrestricted raw land" mobile?

I can fit $200,000 of gold in a shoe box.

If there is a toxic accident and I have to leave the "unrestricted raw land" must stay behind.

-- David Lee Roth (Diver Down@Van Halen.ou812), October 04, 1999.

decker: Much as you spout on as if you know everything about history, you conveniently left out a VERY RECENT story about gold and its wealth effect.

First, gold ALREADY intrinsically represents skill, labour, and ingenuity, just by the fact of it existing in a refined state. Can you say that the same amount of toil and sweat goes into the making of funny-money?

Secondly, those Asians in 1997 (Korea, Indonesia, etc.)who saw their currency devalue almost overnight, and had that compounded by a stock-market drop of 50-75%, surely learned that their gold KEPT the same purchasing power AFTER as it had BEFORE.

Since gold is in $US, the physical gold they had could convert to a proportionately greater amount of local currency after the meltdown. Also, by having it in gold, which is at a secular low, they were keeping it OUT of the stock market, which over there then was at a speculative HIGH. Does this sound like deja-vu all over again?? HINT: Think DJIA.

-- profit_of_doom (doom@helltopay.ca), October 04, 1999.

Hey, "The Engineer":

You *really* want to go on record with "If you are buying coins for investment purposes buy those that have a numismatic value"?

Are you a CFP?

Are you insured against losses should anyone take your financial advice, only to find that the *numismatic* "value" of their coins is no greater than that of *bullion* coins?

Well?

Are you going to indemnify your victims should that scenario play out?

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), October 04, 1999.

Ken,

Thank you for a well written post.I don't understand why so many people are attacking what you wrote.There have been umpteen post on buying gold and no one is stopping them from their views.If someone wants to purchase gold,do it,but don't put someone down for saying to prep first and that your skills are important.

I don't understand why all the post on gold,some yes,but to be told over and over again to hurry up and buy gold is a little much.This isn't a gold forum,but is turning into one.

There was a thread earlier today,the man spoke of a place you could put your trailer,rv,etc. on with water for those that felt the need to get away from the city,that was said to be advertising and shouldn't be on this board.I see that as a solution to many who can't afford to buy a cabin on 40 acres or 100 acres,but just need a place of safty.

I'm not a complete dunce when it comes to gold.Years ago I thought I could play back and forth the noncircomvention agreements.

What I'm trying to say is the gold issue is a personel one and a person shouldn't be jumped on because he/she isn't as gung ho on gold as the next.

-- Maggie (aaa@aaa.com), October 04, 1999.

No more or less then anyone else in this forum. Interesting that you ask the question of me but not of anyone else. Are you saying that all the other advice is "good"? And will you back that up? Besides if it all goes to hell in a hand basket isn't the question moot? Wasn't the thrust of my response that if you trade in gold how do you know what you are getting without a third party to verify it?

-- The Engineer (The Engineer@tech.com), October 04, 1999.

SERE=Survival, Escape, Rescue, Evation.

Mr. Decker

While gold will have to go $500 to catch up to inflation that doesn't matter if you purchased after it dropped to the recent 20 year low (but before the much more recent recovery).

I would hold some gold just to have a nest egg in case of severe finacial turmoil. If you have any other suggestions Mr. Decker I would be glad to listen.

Oh, and I hope the new job is going well for you.

Watch six and keep your...

-- eyes_open (best@wishes.net), October 04, 1999.

'Precious' metals (& gems, also) have frequently been used to transfer 'wealth' through difficult times and/or situations. I cannot recall a single paper currency that has retained its value over a long period of time... Paper or digital currency is merely a promise by some entity to facilitate a future economic transaction. If that entity has diminished capacity then its promises are equally diminished (e.g. inflation, war, Y2K?, etc.). Gold & silver are not promises, they are the actual wealth bearing assets.

How to verify/validate gold content? Assay? It costs, but so what?

-- AEW (triadguys@aol.com), October 04, 1999.

Decker- I would like to point out that if you are investing in gold for whatever reason, at least it is a tangible asset. Stocks are only worth as much as the market determines, and in the end are mostly paper. Whether gold sails up or down it will always have value. If the economy fell apart (yeah, I know that would never happen uh-huh) would you want to be holding 50,000 shares of IBM toilet paper? For someone who seems to have some measure of intelligence, you possess no common sense. If you really are paid to write this tripe, you do a lousy job.

-- Gia (laureltree7@hotmail.com), October 04, 1999.

Engineer: There is little doubt that numismatic coins are a bad investment in a crisis. They're overpriced, just like everything else in todays economy. Bullion is the only way to go. Stick to slide rules, son. Furthermore, the reason why your bud had such a problem overseas is because greenbacks are currently recognized as the form of wealth of choice. Have your pal try his stunt again this spring and I bet he makes out handsomely.

Ken: I too am beginning to think you are a shill. Your obsession with the coming gold rush is just a little too enthusiastic to attribute to simple academic arrogance. For the record, folks, Decker is saying it would be a mistake to cash in your DOW stock (just coming off an all time high) and buy gold (just coming off a 20 year low). Such is the strange logic of economists...

-- a (a@a.a), October 04, 1999.

For the latest gold prices:
http://www.kitco.com/gold. graph.html

Sincerely,
Stan Faryna

Got 14 days of preps? If not, get started now. Click here.

Click here and check out the TB2000 preparation forum.

-- Stan Faryna (faryna@groupmail.com), October 04, 1999.

Gold for preservation of savings. See www.centralfund.com

-- Stefan Spicer (www.sspicer@nas.net), October 04, 1999.

Mr. Decker, even completely putting aside the recent events regarding the upsurge in the price of precious metals, it is hard to take you very seriously at this point, if you to claim to be dumbfounded as to what role precious metals have in Y2K preparations. Still, for the benefit of those who might honestly want to know, lets step through some basics.

You do not know whether precious metals are "critical" or not, anymore than anyone else does, for Y2K. Nobody knows -- yet. I would suspect that most people would list "wealth preservation" as one of their chief concerns, and precious metals certainly offer a means to do this. Especially in a world where electronic money becomes ill defined.

You ask, what would one "buy" with precious metals? And make the point that goods for bartering (e.g., ammo) might be a better thing to have. The fact is -- obviously -- that in all but the very worst case scenario, gold and silver coins per se could be used as part of a bartering negotiation. As in, "I will give you five gallons of diesel fuel and a tenth ounce gold American Eagle for two days worth of your labor." With the idea that, as time moves forward, precious metals would be more frequently used for bartering, and eventually perhaps become money in its own right. You know, basic ECON 101 type concepts. (For all anyone knows, cash -- U.S. greenbacks -- may serve the same role, at least initially, since there is so little available relative to electronic money.)

You advocate being diversified in investments. I can't agree more, which is why my "Y2K diversified portfolio" consists of such things as farm tools, ammo, food, guns, medical supplies, fuel, household items, cash, gold coins and silver coins. Any of which might be useful for bartering, and all of which attempt to preserve my wealth.

Again, nobody knows what Y2K will bring. But I feel far better with gold and silver than electronic or paper promises-to-pay that may become valueless in just three months.

88 days.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), October 04, 1999.

Once again the Engineer fails to see the obvious. After a major economic/social crisis with a breakdown of the financial infrastructure, which is what Y2K threatens, no one will care about the numismatic value of a coin. It's not how incredibly rare the coin is that will determine its usefulness as a means of facilitating trade --that's a hobbyist concern of our currently decadent age--it's the fact that it's a specific amount of gold that can be used as capital to rebuild a functioning economy. Capital will be scarce in 2001 and beyond; those who have gold will be the wealthy ones, perhaps the only wealthy ones.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), October 04, 1999.

"The Engineer" said:

No more or less then anyone else in this forum. Interesting that you ask the question of me but not of anyone else. Are you saying that all the other advice is "good"? And will you back that up? Besides if it all goes to hell in a hand basket isn't the question moot? Wasn't the thrust of my response that if you trade in gold how do you know what you are getting without a third party to verify it?

Wow, didn't your mother warn you not to leave your nerve out for people to strike?

Nice little cascading straw fantasy you build, sonny.

To set your "mind" to rest, no, I wasn't "saying" *anything*, I was only asking questions.

Your Clinton-in-the-garden flipout routine was all the answer I needed.

I'm surprised you didn't accuse me of working for Investor's Business daily!

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), October 04, 1999.

I think Ken Decker has posted something quite good, which has been flat-out misread by several of the responders.

For example, nowhere does he tout the current stock market over gold. I don't think he's in the stock market; I sure as hell am not. I think that if we both were faced with the choice of stock market or gold, we would answer "Gold!! and thank the Lord."

But his arguments make exceeding sense for many because of their individual situations. Make sense for mine (have always invested 100% in real estate). I don't criticize anyone for buying gold. Go with God, I say. But just don't think I'm a fool for choosing not to.

-- Peter Errington (petere@ricochet.net), October 04, 1999.

Peter:

I guess it's name recognition. Decker is accused of saying many foolish things he never said. Many of them are almost opposite to what he *did* say. Meanwhile, what he actually writes is eminently sensible. He has repeatedly told people to buy gold if they choose, and repeatedly been mocked for telling people not to buy gold!

Certainly if civilization collapses I'd rather have excellent farming skills than gold. If we suffer a deflationary depression, gold is lousy. As a pure medium of exchange gold leaves a bit to be desired, as The Engineer has pointed out. And as someone mentioned, an awful lot will have to go wrong before it becomes even accepted as such a medium.

Perhaps gold does have some value as a store of wealth if times become extremely hard and stay that way for a long while. But even so, skills and knowledge are probably more valuable. I think mostly, that gold holds a certain fascination with some people, that it attracts a special kind of lust some folks fall prey to. And it's this very lust that has lent gold its value historically.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), October 04, 1999.

Ken

I quite agree that people don't "need" gold to make it through Y2K, but as far as the interest in gold on the forum one has to look at the events of the last year to find the significance of the recent rise.

There has been an obvious manipulation by certian members of the economic community and some (maybe me :o) saw this as an opertunity to by low. The price has rose close to 30% in the last week and some say this is just the start. One could even consider the decision of the european banks motivated by Y2K as the potential defaults would be a higher risk. Its at a high risk at the moment and there is relitive stability in the economy at the moment.

But ultimately gold is of value during times of uncertianty for savings in my view. Equating gold with information is nonsence. Gold compared to tools is a better choice. Tools are something that has real value if one knows how to use them. I would invest in tools before gold. But with a significant gold investment at this point one could consider it as a downpayment in a land purchase in the future if things go haywire.

Speculation.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), October 04, 1999.

PS folks, as of 7:13 pm Oct 4 gold is at 330 and climing swiftly, $25 rise in 24 hrs. Not bad.

  Bridge/CRB Current Quotes

-- Brian (imager@home.com), October 04, 1999.

Actually, Flint, you are probably right for the most part, but don't really appreciate how what you just wrote applies to Y2K. Historically, once people have the bare bones basic necessities, the next thing they do is start working together to build something better than just scratching out a meager existence. Maybe you have super-duper farming skills, and I am a really good hunter. The pasture on my farm borders the woods on yours. And we go from there.

From bartering, it is natural to move to a rudimentary monetary system, and for whatever reason, gold has historically fit that bill quite well. A monetary system is what allows us to have a division of labor, so that I don't have to depend on being able to do an exact trade of my talents or goods for yours. Or, as is often the case with strict bartering, I don't have to trade item A for item B only because I know that once I have item B I can then trade it for item C, which is what I really wanted in the first place.

Again, this is simple, intuitive, easily understood, and the way it has always worked. That Mr. Decker chooses to profess ignorance of these basic principles when it comes to the applicability of precious metals is actually not surprising, since it clearly is an important part of Y2K preparation.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), October 04, 1999.

Doesnt the BILL of RIGHTS state only currency backed by gold and silver. That is the best reason to purchase gold, because you are obeying the god given constitution.

-- fred (FRED@aol.com), October 04, 1999.

Flintspeak as a barometer of gold pricing:

Gold at $320:

Certainly if civilization collapses blah blah blah gold sucks.

Gold at $340:

As a pure medium of exchange gold blah blah blah gold sucks.

Gold at $375:

Perhaps blah blah blah gold sucks.

Gold at $415:

Uh...

Gold at $575:

*gulp*

Gold at $800:

$#@^% Ken Decker!

-- a (a@a.a), October 04, 1999.

'a':

Have I really expressed myself that poorly? You are talking about an investment here that's appreciating. Who knows, buying gold today might turn out to be as profitable as buying amazon.com a while back. But I'm not talking about speculating in precious metals, I'm talking about what might be of most value considering varying kinds of economic disruptions.

Certainly if nothing much happens and you sell your gold at the peak, you'll do well. And if so, great!

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), October 04, 1999.

a: ROTFLMAO!!!! "Flintspeak". I love it!!!!! LOL!!!

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), October 04, 1999.

It's simple. In the midst of all the "you doomers blew all the critical dates," score one for crazy Andy and the boys. Gold is up, when, for months, it was just, "yeah, yeah, yeah, ha-ha-ha."

Knowing when to sell it is a problem with any "bet" -- now? 01/05/2000? 01/01/2010? Those who aren't holding any should be so lucky (me, for instance)!

Don't change today's score none. Andy and gold bugs: 1. Everyone else: 0.

Decker, with many of us, exited the market earlier this year. Good move.

Andy, with some of us, has bought and held gold and now it is paying off. GOOD move. I'm delighted for all of you, just as I would be for any friends.

End of story.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), October 04, 1999.

Flint, the point you are missing is that many of us who bought gold did so as a hedge in case the outcome of the financial mess and computer glitch was >7. Sort of like a y2k 401k. We didn't do it because we wanted to be rich, like Decker and his capitalist buddies. We did so because we saw a very uncertain future ahead and a good possibilty of calamity. It took courage to make such a move, courage that folks like you can't muster because you're too indecisive and unable to comprehend that a major change is in the wings.

Now, in October 1999, we are pretty darn close to the event horizon. It only gets worse from here on out Flint. I guarantee it.

-- a (a@a.a), October 04, 1999.

It's Survival-Escape-RESISTANCE-Evasion.....and my very religous grandpa told me in the '60's...."Son, if it ever happens, they can line the streets with guns, a single bullet will be worth it's weight in GOLD!" I think I'll hang on to both, thank you.

-- S.Pace (space@nwaisp.com), October 04, 1999.

Meanwhile gold is a rocketship and I am along for the ride.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), October 04, 1999.

Andy. good on ya! My prediction, gold is acting like the paper.too volital (sp?). expect a gold down swing in late october or early nov. when the big boys sell high and wait in the wings to repeat the cycle--Paper or gold,maybe but silver is cheap and easy to spend.An added plus, silver bullets!!!! decker---the bear is in the yard!

-- H fats Kissinger (draconionsolutions@uselesseaters.com), October 05, 1999.

I like Ken Decker. He's clever, and likes a bit of fun with you guys. He just drops in the line, with a juicy bait, and you all go into a feeding frenzy,.

He probably has dinner parties where he shows down loads of your posts, and he and his mates laugh themselves silly.

Keep it up, Ken!!

-- Laughing (Laughing@you guys.com), October 05, 1999.

Oh! And did you like the way he dropped in "SERE"...? It took quite a while before someone was 'brave' enough to admitt they didn't know what the heck it was..Like I said, clever and very funny is our Ken. Pity he may not survive Y2K. I'll miss him.

-- Laughing (Laughing@youguys.com), October 05, 1999.

Bullshit.

Gold is the only money that doesn't depend on someone else's signature and systems. As such, it is inextrictably linked to Y2K. the fact that coincidentaly, some idiots had shorted it to historic lows, and europe had started a currency war with the Fed at the same time just adds fuel to the fire.

There ain't enough gold and gold mining stocks for all the money that is going to seek protection in the next 18 months. The only question is, is the government going to steal it, as Roosevelt did? Clinton admires him too much.

-- ng (cantprovideemail@none.com), October 05, 1999.

Ah, another pessimist predicting my demise. (laughter) You are better served worrying about your own hide. Mine is quite safe, thank you.

On to some specific points.

1. People who had the chutzpah to buy stocks during the depression made out quite well when the economy came back to life.

2. The "maximum utility" of gold occurs when the dollar has collapsed and where there is still a functioning economy. This presupposes the Federal Reserve will fail to protect the dollar or the financial services system... and that we will stop short of the brink. This is like flipping a coin and having it land on its side. Please note... the dollar remained in use during the entire Great Depression.

3. Land is not mobile... but unless someone air drops toxic waste onto my property, it should be fine. You can carry your gold. Someone else can carry your gold as well. It will not grow crops or support lifestock. It will not give you water, shelter or heat. It's value is in what someone else thinks it is worth.

4. Ah, the old "tangible asset" argument. Forum posters should really read the "Wealth of Nations" and other critiques of mercantilism. Gold may be "tangible," but it is nonproductive. Gold does not produce anything. In this respect, it is inferior to many other assets... even the common seed. While you may deride stocks, the investment of capital into companies creates capital for investment and increases in productive capacity. While often overlooked, the owner of a stock has a share in the future of a company... companies with productive assets like factories, people, and ideas. To a someone like Gia, IBM stock may be toilet paper. To someone else, it is a share of one of the more successful companies in modern times.

5. "a," I cannot decide if you are so steeped in your own views you have become incapable of reading objectively. Or are you just a bare- faced liar? In over a dozen posts, I have discussed my sale of stock last April/May. I have called the equities markets overvalued on even more occasions and provided links to articles supporting this claim. If you have any interest in being taken seriously, try to read what I write... without distorting the information with your personal hostility. By the way, "a," spare me the lecture about courage. Show me when you've gone in harm's way for this country and I'll give you the time of day. Oh, that means show me in person....

6. No one has adequately answered my claim that the "gold bugs" have agenda well outside Y2K. Let's call this the "Gary North Syndrome."

7. Gold can increase in value... so can any other asset. If you want to speculate in commodities, feel free. A few lucky souls make excellent money.

8. Peter, why should the deliberate misread surprise you? As Flint aptly demonstrates, some readers on this forum care only about WHO is writing... not what they say. I have eaten avacados with more intellectual integrity.

9. Brian, the manipulation does not seem so obvious to me.

10. Russ, even a blind squirrel finds an occasional acorn.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), October 05, 1999.

Hey aughing,

You moron, it took exactly ONE (1) post (about 3 minutes) for me to "admit" that I didn't know what SERE was. And my point about the training still stands. Most people don't have military training you pri&k. Some people have enough money that it makes sense to invest in gold as a hedge.

Decker is too blind to understand that. You're obviously just too stupid.

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), October 05, 1999.

Thank you, Mr. Decker, for effectively ignoring every point that I raised in my posts regarding the use of precious metals in a Y2K barter/meltdown scenario. And, also, for somehow managing to sneak in your usual strawman type potshots at Gary North et al regarding "hidden agendas".

If nothing else, you are certainly consistent.

87 days.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), October 05, 1999.

Ken mentioned

"9. Brian, the manipulation does not seem so obvious to me."

Manipulation maybe a strong word but certianly unfair advantage for some shorting the market. I would consider the CBs in a position close to where the FRB was last year with LTCM, if there is any chance of people taking advantage of an oppertunity they will take it. The trouble is that the effects can destablize the markets as a whole and the big boys find that they must apply disipline. I would call the Banks move more in their personal interest that a manipulation. It is the Bank of England that has been the biggest suprise. That is manipulation.

The reason it is manipulation in my mind is because an org. as big as the BOE should not change policy within months. If you look at the Fed. Alan Greenspan's priority is stability. This is not the case with the BOE move. In no way has it contributed to stability, in fact they are the primary motivater for the situation as it now stands.

In May (?) they either looked really stupid or had underlying reasons for doing what they did that were not public. This is manipulation.

As you can imagine I can bring up documentation supporting my view.

The Euro banks just did some damage assessment and suported market fairness. That is all folks should expect. This was not the case before the anouncement, after bringing the BOE inline and haulting the unfair loans at 1%.

Oh an by the way I have been working with Gold (foil) for 20 years in my artistic persuits. It is a love for the metal that goes beyond common sense for some. My interest in it is not strictly Y2K oriented, I have always considered getting my carvings cast in Gold. Gold is not always convertable to dollars and cents. It also has captured the imagination of the human race. Tangible in heart not in reality. This is no reason to invest in the material true, but also true is that the metal has a history and a heart.

If I was a farmer and not a water type (past fisherman) I would buy land and equipment. But I can't move land. It locks you in. There are arguements for both views. Each to there own.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), October 05, 1999.

a, Slide rules? Wow you are out of it! Actually I think they are becoming collectors items and going up in value.

Cody and a: My point was\is that is things go to hell in a hand basket you have your ounce or so of gold. If its an inflationary economy the numismatic value of the coin will tend to go up. In the last inflationary spiral rare coins, etc did quite well. Even in a relatively low inflationary economy the value of the coin will go up, albeit much more slowly. Of course it all depends on the initial value of the coin and its condition etc. And yes it is easy to get snookered.

One thing I cant help noticing is that people who post about gold seem to be talking out of both sides of their mouth so to speak. If you are buying it as a hedge against the end of the world (or a reasonable facsimile therefore of) and that doesnt happen, will you sell it? If all of your hopes and fears dont come true, lets say by next spring, will you sell your gold? If not then you are prepared to take the loss of the investment for the rest of your life. In other words is gold a talisman or an investment?

Also when did you purchase your gold? If you got it at the bottom then your chances of making a profit in the future are reasonable. But if you brought it several years ago when it was higher then you have to wait a longer time. Of course I have the feeling that some of you are willing to wait forever. So that may be neither here nor there.

You would be right cody, but only if your prediction comes true. If there is no major breakdown then all of your assumptions go out the window.

Ron, actually it was time. I was trying to get out of here before the Post Office closed and I was trying to be clever. And Sonny? Dont I wish. I realized your logic was faulty since if any CFA gave any advice and the investment turned out bad they could all be sold. Ditto any broker, etc. It did strike a nerve in the sense that the double standards that people are held to on this forum are amazing. Anytime gold goes up its BIG NEWS. Ditto if the stock market goes down. Of course when the reverse happens, its almost never mentioned.

-- The Engineer (The Engineer@tech.com), October 05, 1999.

Give me a break Decker. You know good and well that if everybody cashes out of the market AS YOU DID we'll have a crash. What kind of "economist" are you anyway?

But your're no worse than Flint the "polly", who says BANKS ARE FINE and in the next breath says "I know it's the wrong thing to do for the system, but all my money is coming out of the bank."

And Flint: Do not try and weasle out of this statement, taken verbatim from another thread on this forum. You are at best a hypocrite and more likely a liar. As for you Ken, I haven't quite figured you out yet. Are you a troll masquerading as a shill or vise versa?

-- a (a@a.a), October 05, 1999.

Jack,

Gold is only one historical medium of exchange. Many commodities have been used as currency.

As a person with some background in economics, I am familiar with both monetary systems and the division of labor. I simply do not believe our economy and its currency will collapse. As I explained above, there is a rather narrow set of circumstances where gold might have any use as a substitute currency. In grave circumstances it is far more likely another currency (like Swiss Francs) would replace the American dollar. Modern economies simply cannot do business using gold. Whatever you think, Jack, Y2K will not destroy our physical infrastructure or cause a regression to a primitive barter system... unless you happen to live in a third world country completely unprepared for Y2K problems. Even then, the problems will not last for an indefinite period of time.

In summary, Jack, I understand what you are saying. I just disagree.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), October 05, 1999.

'a':

Sigh. I believe in being cautious. I believe in insurance. I believe the banks will be fine, and I prefer to let others be the guinea pigs because this is easy for me (I have almost no money).

And if you live in a house you know will burn down *because* you insured it, you are exactly the same sort of hypocrite and liar. Which is to say, neither.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), October 05, 1999.

"a,"

Repeat after me. Every buyer needs a seller. When I sold my stock, someone bought it. If there were no buyers at the offer price, I could have held firm or lowered my asking prices. "Everybody" can't sell... there'd be no one left to buy.

There are self limiting forces to price drops. If the market fell 4,000 points, you'd find me buying back in... and I doubt that I'd be alone.

For the record, I have not taken my money out of the bank. My bank has provided enough assurances of Y2K readiness (at least for me.) Most of my other money is in brokerage accounts... and yes, I'll keep paper records (just in case.)

So, I hope the market returns to reasonable valuations. If it takes enough people like me selling... so be it. In fact, selling overpriced stocks is my version of a public service. Rather than piling on a speculative bubble, I'm voting in the finest tradition of the American economic system... with my money.

As for you, "a," you need to take a few deep breaths and relax. You seem to react to issues rather than think your way through. Economics favors the patient and careful thinker. Things are not always what they seem... or what we might wish them to be.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), October 05, 1999.

This has been a revealing thread. I understand the personalities known as "Flint & Decker" a lot better now. They are basically pollies who are saying "Everything will be fine! Uh, but if not, every man for himself!"

-- a (a@a.a), October 05, 1999.

Yes, Mr. Decker, I fully understand that you do not believe that Y2K will bring about the kind of physical infrastructure collapse that I believe to be perfectly possible -- and am preparing for. But, as per the hypothetical condition that you laid out in your kickoff post for this thread, "Considering a major collapse...", it is in fact under this hypothetical condition that I am trying to make the point that precious metals should indeed be a part of one's Y2K preparations (if indeed one is preparing to this level).

So, under the premise that we are "considering a major collapse", would you not agree that precious metals should be included as part of one's Y2K preparations? (Personally, I can't see Swiss francs, at least not in the U.S....)

87 days.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), October 05, 1999.

Bought $105000 of Harmony HGMCY gold mine a couple of days ago - made about $7000 overnight. My DROOY Durban Roodepoorte Deep made just under 7% today. All the phusical gold that I bought at an average of maybe $280+ is now in the mid $350's. We are looking at a multi- thousand dollar increase here. Believe it.

Catch you later chaps. I'm out for a beer and hit a strip club.

Toodle pip!

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 05, 1999.

"a,"

Speaking of lack of intellectual integrity... how did you ever make it through a physics degree? Have you spent so much time with Milne you lost any ability to engage in a reasonable discussion. I sold my equities because the market is vastly overvalued. You, wearing "Milne" goggles, interpret this as bailing out.

Please.

This thread was never meant to address gold as a speculative investment or inflation hedge... but as part of Y2K preparations. You remind me of Daffy Duck in the famous "Duck, Rabbit, Duck" cartoon. You are more invested in disagreeing with me than in actually thinking about what you are saying. It's actually funny from a certain perspective.

My thesis is simple... there is a narrow band of outcomes where gold has a high degree of utility. If Y2K is less than a catastrophe, the dollar will continue to serve as the nation's currency. If Y2K is abyss envisioned by Milne... there will be more dealing in lead than gold. Agree or disagree, "a," but try to stay on topic.

"Jack,"

The last time I checked, Y2K will not destroy bridges. The millennium bug will not topple buildings or make fertile fields barren. The vast majority of equipment will function. Books will not empty themselves of the written word nor will people forget how to build every aspect of modern technology. People will have the same skills on January 1st as they did on December 31st. We will not go back to the 1200s, the 1800s, or even the 1970s. The genie will not fit back into the bottle.

When I consider a "major collapse," I think of an economic downturn worse than the Great Depression. Look at modern Russia... even with the collapse of the FSU, they are not living in a Mad Max world.

Of course, we can disagree. But in your post-Apocalyptic world the coin of the realm will not be gold... it will be force.

Finally, commerce will always find a way. Consider the examples of Prohibition or the "War on Drugs." Business will find a way... whether it uses another currency or invents its own. I suppose the British could not imagine anything but the pound serving as an international currency.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), October 05, 1999.

"Toodle pip"????!!!!! Gawd, must be the talk of the neuvue rich or whatever the hell they call it!

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), October 05, 1999.

Whatever Ken. But I think your "Things are not always what they seem" comment pertains to you more than me. You seem to be able to envision futures where the dollar prevails and ones where anarchy reigns, but unlike most on this forum, can see nothing in between. In times of serious crisis, gold will still be a precious metal, and your T-bills will be paper.

-- a (a@a.a), October 05, 1999.