GOLD question for the experts : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Amateur question: Does anyone here disagree that memories of recent lows (i.e. $256) will make people extremely cautious about investing in gold above a certain price?

Put another way, how many reading this who are planning on buying gold would buy now if the price were over $400 instead of $300?

Surely the "fear factor" of losing bigtime will prevent the price from sky-rocketing in the near future... at least until TSHTF.

I probably don't know what I'm talking about (yep - it's confirmed - I don't), but there's been no major financial/bank/stockmarket collapse yet (at least not made public) to force people into gold.

So, Andy - anyone - reasons why gold could/should skyrocket before Dec 31st or any major financial collapse? Mechanism behind it?


-- Y2KGardener (, October 04, 1999


I don't have much money after prepping, but over the last 20 years I've spent a lot of time owning gold and gold funds. I also enjoy studying economic history. I'd say as long as the future looks dark and uncertain as it does, gold is good. Gold is good for bad times. If we pass the new year and computers are fine, which I doubt, then I wouldn't stay in gold. But I think this is illogical. The stock market is a bubble, personal debt is too high, and indications are that too many computers will malfunction and interoperability is no good.

But this decision is yours. Always remember, no decision is a decision. Hard decisions are always difficult to make, and only you can make them for yourself.

-- d (d@d.d), October 04, 1999.

Thanks... but I was really wondering more about why we are all sitting here going "GO GOLD!"?

Is there any reason why anyone here thinks it will just keep "soaring" without any "obvious" (so obvious that even the sheeple see it) reason? Or is it, as it is for me, just wishful thinking just because I managed to buy low?!

-- Y2KGardener (, October 04, 1999.

Not everyone will buy gold. With memorys of $35.00 per oz enough people bought in 79/80 to send it to $875.00 per oz. Then things got better for the economy. Gold stayed above $400.00 for many years before it was artificially driven down in an elaborate short selling scheme that is too complicated to explain here. As long as gold rises steadly it is safe. Watch out for a frothy top. BUY NOW, BUY CHEAP.

-- goldbug (, October 04, 1999.

I could bore you to tear with reasons why gold will go to the moon soon :)

But think on this.

We are all y2k aware - yes?

We all know that at the very least we are going to hit a major recession - IMHO a major depression, with high unemployment, raging inflation, power outages, JIT breakdowns, oil scarcity etc. etc.

You may have lost your paper wealth/savings in the market crash...

If you had bought gold - even at today's price of $315 an ounce, you will be thanking your lucky stars in six months time... you will have protected your nest egg and have a base from which to rebuild...

Who knows - you may wish to travel and work aboroad - providing the gubbmint doesn't try to confiscate YOUR gold at the border you will be able to go anywhere and start over...

Think about it...

Many respected analysts (ha ha freaking ha - wher were they up until now?) are predicting $650 as a median level, with $850 as being quite reasonable.

Me? I believe it will go far far higher - and shock even me. Get some while you can - your green toilet paper is already tanking around the world.

The gold-backed and oil-backed Euro will be king.

-- Andy (, October 04, 1999.

Andy, I have to say I like your style.

-- cody varian (, October 04, 1999.

Think about it this way. Gold will always be worth something. It has and always be accepted in trade around the world. All paper money systems eventually fail, since the Chinese invented it long ago. It feels like our time is near. If you don't see it as an investment, think of it as insurance.

-- Possum (, October 04, 1999.


Usually,commodity futures and the options markets settle without actual transfer of the underlying physical commodity that the future contract or option is based.

What is happening now is that the biggest players who have been selling future gold contracts short now have to deliver physical gold to the buyers. Some reports suggest see that the hedge funds are short 4-5 times the world's annual gold production. Since cnetral bank lease rates are up and the buyers want physical gold, the funds are scrambling to get gold. While the funds were selling short, others were buying. So now there is a real shortage of physical to satisfy the contracts.

IN my opinion, the gold shorts were working with the US Treasury and Federal Reserve trying to preserve market continuity and postpone any Y2K market reactions. I believe the G-7 powers agreed to a "panic avoidance" strategy based on the misbegotten idea that 'no matter what Y2K brings any Y2K plus a panic would be worse than just a Y2K information disruption'. So they agreed to stall a panic by selling gold short and propping markets so as to buy time for more business as usual and remediation time.

It is now the fourth quarter and no time left to stall or postpone the imovable deadline.

-- Bill P (, October 04, 1999.

I'm no expert, but my advice is to buy gold now. Although it might correct to $285, ( a very small might), it is a terrific buy now. It has bottomed and now it's starting a long term rise. Carl The Bug.

-- carl eschbach (, October 04, 1999.

If you reall want to know, Gardener, try this

and these

and this

When you have digested this, then you will begin to understand what is going on. Gold is going not to the moon, but to Saturn. Unfortunately for us, the dollar is going just as far in the other direction. All this is assuming that some sort of civilization remains post Y2K.


-- dave (, October 04, 1999.

I just bought more CEF. Never thought I would do it.

-- Dave (, October 04, 1999.

Here's my question. OK, so we buy some gold and it grows in value. What then? Where do you sell it? Do you take it to a bank in a bag? How do you redeem the value of it? I know this sounds stupid but I've never been through a world wide disaster before.

-- a mom (, October 04, 1999.

I agree with Carl. The price to produce gold from ore is about $255- 275 per ounce. This makes a good price resistance level.

As to selling gold, post Y2K; I expect there may be a period when the gold markets are closed and market prices are not kept. To sell physical gold, a coin dealer or a jeweler will buy at spot market price. Under normal conditions in the spot market, there is a bid price (the price a buyer is willing to pay to buy one ounce of gold) and there is an ask price (the price a seller is willing to sell one ounce of gold). The spread between the bid and the ask is a function of the seller's commission or mark-up; the market conditions of supply and demand; and one's negotiotiating skills (position, qty involved, position of the guy on the opposite end of the deal, etc). For individuals buying thru a local (or mail order or internet coin dealer) expect to pay the Bid Price at the time you buy plus about a 20% markup for the seller's commission). For individuals selling thru a local dealer expect to sell at the Bid price at the time you try to sell.

Pre or Post Y2K, markets may have a period where transactions are closed so a market is not made or prices posted. If you must sell during this period you would be at a disadvantage to a healthy buyer.

Given current market conditions, I personally am reluctant to speculate in near term. But I strongly agree that holding physical gold and silver remain as an excellent means to carry forward some value and some wealth post-Y2K.

-- Bill P (, October 04, 1999.

In times of disaster, people will give diamonds for bread and are glad to do so, grateful they had the means to buy bread. Gold is a hedge. Diversify.

-- Mara Wayne (, October 04, 1999.

1987 didn't prevent people from jumping onto stocks again.

-- A (, October 04, 1999.

You should be buying gold and silver if you want to preserve your wealth; allbeit $100 or $100,000.

If you want to make a quick buck before 12/31, then go to Vegas.

-- I'm (, October 04, 1999.

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