A ot has been said about which nations are likely to come out of y2k smelling like a rose, and which will be SOL. One of the major concerns I see people talking about is that Red China may become the worlds dominant superpower, overrunning taiwan, south Korea, even Japan, The rest of southeast asia, Australia, or even San Fran and Panama, nothing sems to be safe. But what about the effects of small, innocuous things that we can never really prepare for, or predict, if Mitchell hadn't developed the spitfire before WWII? If Hitler had been awake for the Normandy invasion? If Harald Hadrada hadn't looked up at the wrong moment? Or, even sillier things, if congress had been one vote shy and we all spoke german? The point of this is not to engage is endless what if's? but to examine our methodology for making predictions... i have one here for china. I remember a time magazine story a few years back in which the chinese were trying to find a way to avoid projected food shortages beginning in about 2010. They found a solution: Super Rice, 13 bushels per acre. Regular rice: 4. now, with Super rice being a hybrid variety and all, and being produced in cities... hmmmmm, an army travels on it's stomach doesn't it?

-- jeremiah Boyd (braponspdetroit@hotmail.com), October 01, 1999

Answers

Like the situation of y2k, nobody knows until it happens. I have always said re y2k that it will probably be something that no one has thought of that will pop up and kick us in the butt. I am reading a novel right now called Deadline Y2k and its really great. Fast moving and exciting, more in the tech side than survival of the family. But in it there are numerous things that pop up to confuse or knock down the system. Interesting read...had I not been a GI for a couple of years and been reading about IBM main frames,Water systems, nuclear plants, grid, JIT delivery systems, etc, I am not sure I could appreciate the book as much as I do. A good read.

Taz

-- Taz (Taz@aol.com), October 01, 1999.

China is a wild card. On one hand they have many millions of dislocated, unemployed, young men - a problem. One the other they have a functioning agrarian society. Additionally they use and have the mfg capability of old fashioned steam engines for trains. This, imo, could be of major import post y2k when one remembers that it is possible to walk from China to Europe. If Europe really tanks, a rather high possibility imho, China could save the day with food shipments.

It also bears remembering that China has been buying quantities of gold for at least the last year. An interesting offshoot of considering Chinese steam trains brings supplies to Europe would be that those same trains could be of great political import to the oil producing nations of the Mid-East. Given China's new stash of gold, the Arab gold dinar, and the gold backed Euro a case can be made where a political/economic superstate evolves with China at the head, the Arabs, Turks, & Persians [temporarily setting aside their mutual swords], & the remains of the European states.

While there would still be a die-off in this scenario, it would be less than a 9 or 10 hit. Of considerable interest would be the Russian reaction. Initially, probably nothing as the Russian state will not have the capability of reacting. However, later, after their own internal and external migrations, just the population pressure alone will be a factor within those regions of Moslem and Christian to Russia's south. The question would be whether or not the Chinese would be able to sustain rail links over thousands of miles. My guess is yes, especially since those rail links would be the initial, at least, means by which Chinese Euro-Asian hegemony is realized and maintained.

India is another wild card. Yes, it too is dependant upon computers, has a big middle class, etc. But India has a huge stash of gold and silver. It is highly agrarian.

Of course, all speculation is just that, and certainly mine assumes human intelligence high enough to refrain from nuke launches by any party, and the refraining from the use of bio's and chem's. Whether my assumption re human intelligence is warrented or not is one of the biggest wild cards about y2k, & we will only know after the fact.

-- Mitchell Barnes (spanda@inreach.com), October 01, 1999.

Historically, you can always use a large number of unemployed young men...in an army! That can be used to conquor territory needed to produce more food. If some of the men die, you don't have to feed them...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), October 04, 1999.