Comment to R iversomagreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
While there is no hope for the systems, there is still hope for the people. The pollies got us into this mess but we don't have to roll over.
Each of us has unique strengths, skills, and we are all resources for each other.
I expect hard times but even hard times can be good times. You have insight into what is about to happen, you can be a leader, a source of inspiration and strength for your circle, your associates, family, community, church, neighborhood.
I don't know how bad things will be. I am concerned that Ed Yourdon and Ed Yardeni might have underestimated the dangers. I used their assessment in wrp 114.
I'm hoping that I can ride it out at Site-A. Site-A is a couple blocks from a 7-11 and close where "City Under Siege" filmed an open air drug market.
It was interesting scanning over the responses to email@example.com's cross posts of my c.s.y2k articles a few threads below. The pollies still think I have something to do with their delusions, fears, and troubling thoughts.
We are entering the Autumn of our seasons. The pollies should be raging at IBM, the CIA, the U.S. Defense Department, the U.S. Senate and the others who have issued far more alarmist information than any of us (the Y-guys, me, paul milne, etc.)
We're easy. I have Larry Gershwin's congressional testimony from CSPAN2 on video tape. Gershwin lays it out. Nuclear power, gas pipelines, international unrest, war.
My area is S/390 mainframes and large complex systems. These will fail and there will be consequences but I don't know what they are. Your employer might fail. You might lose your job but beyond that, who knows.
Take simple, sensible precautions. Do your best. Take care of yourself and others. Hope for the best.
Tomorrow is a new day.
-- cory (kiyoinc@ibm.XOUT.net), September 29, 1999
Cory, no doubt there will be some finger point going on as who to blame for this mess. I cannot think of one GI on any forum that I have participated on or lurked on that hasn't tried to help someone else. It's easy to blame someone else because that means you don't have to take responsibility for yourself. As long as we are trying to communicate the message of preparing, there's not much more we can do for anyone but oursleves.
I believe that it's too late for millions of people to prepare. It has taken me many months of reading, learning, storing, and put into practice those things which I have learned, it that's just the basics! I started 19 months ago and it wasn't easy, now there is only 3 months left and the panic hasn't even started. I'm being realistic here, and while a few bags of beans and rice can easily be stored, how many will tire of beans and rice everyday when they are use to eating Burger King? I also wonder how many people even know how to cook rice and beans? Seems like a fairly simple straight forward thing to me, but I know of a middle aged lady who didn't know to take a canned ham out of the can before placing it in the oven! It blew the oven door off and canned ham everywhere.....I think we are in trouble, not only with Y2K, but with ignorant people that will end up killing themselves from improperly stored gasoline, drinking contaminated water, or a cat knocking over a candle. Yes indeed, we are in BIG trouble.
-- bardou (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 29, 1999.
Great post Cory.
"You have insight into what is about to happen, you can be a leader, a source of inspiration and strength for your circle, your associates, family, community, church, neighborhood."
I think I've resigned myself to this thinking. I haven't been as successful as I would have liked in getting my family to take these issues seriously. I don't think I could live with myself if I left my 7 year old nephew and 2 year old niece behind so that I could bug-out. I love my family too much to leave them.
The other day I was in my local gun dealer and a young man was buying an AR-15 because he feared the fall-out of Y2k. Of course, in Cali these guns wont be available for purchase after the rollover anyway. I was back again today and the place was packed. We have a great Sheriff's Department here and I am surrounded by ex and current military personnel. My little city has a website which lists the systems they've worked to remediate and things are looking ok. I'm trying to look at the bright side and be optimistic.
There are bad elements around me and local law enforcement as well as my neighbors know who they are. If you're familiar with L.A. then you know that my nearest neighbors are a handshake over a brick fence away. Heck, one of my next door neighbors is my own mom.
Someone has to stay to help people through. I guess that's me. We can't all bug out to the hills.
My twin brother lives in Capital City, perhaps not too far from you. D.C. should be an interesting place just like my city : )
-- Michael Taylor (email@example.com), September 29, 1999.
Cory has been more than accurate of his assessment of the mainframe shops,IMHO. I have visited over 20 in the last two years and as of this late date, I know for a fact that 15 have yet to begin testing, that's right testing. I've lurked, I've blasted and I've warned, but no one believes me, says I'm nuts. That's fine. I'm ready, and I know that I am as I am now spending less than $25 per week on my preps where as before at times it was over $200. What does this mean? Nothing. Do I believe there will be failures? You bet. Severe ones? Not where the "plane falling from the sky" or the "Pollys" think it will come. My field of expertise has been working with the pharmaceutical industry and some rather large logistics systems. Do not kid yourself. The JIT system of manufacturing is going to fail. The warnings of Sun Microsystems, IBM, and Unisys have gone unheeded. So the power is still on when the ball drops, big deal. When the factories in the U.S. and more importantly in Mexico and the third world grind to a halt, what will happen to our economy? In not one of these or any other forums have the pollys begun to address our manufacturing processes and the differences between now and the 1950's. We can not go back to the 1950's people, wake up. Game over.
Got farm implements?
And more importantly never blame the IS guys.....they just followed orders.
-- John Galt (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 29, 1999.
When Wall Street crashes, I bet you'll reconsider the wisdom of riding it out at Site-A.
When the entire US economy collapses, I bet you'll be long gone from Site-A.
-- Randolph (email@example.com), September 29, 1999.
I'm not in a mainframe shop at the moment, so I can't make a current assessment. But, based on my past (including a third century in the IT industry), I must go along with Cory's assessment (and Ed Yourdon's, as well). There is too much history of failing to complete projects on time or rushing them to production with inadequate testing. The signs of lack of testing, project slippage, and cost overruns are there to be seen by those who have eyes...
-- Mad Monk (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 29, 1999.
That middle aged lady that put the unopened canned ham into the oven, well, I think I was married to her once, a long time ago. But, just to be sure, did she also line the cake pan with Saran Wrap before baking the pineapple upside down cake? ;-(
-- Gordon (email@example.com), September 29, 1999.
Cory, What's the latest from the Dragon Ranch? You used to update us on the Barron's preps there. Isn't it you Site-C? Thanks for all you do.
-- Bill (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 29, 1999.
Very well put Cori.
We need to be able, from a position of strength and safety, to help others when and where we can.
This I believe.
-- no talking please (email@example.com), September 29, 1999.
Gordon--I knew there was more than one uneducated cook in this world and one that cannot follow directions!
"Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens"--Jimi Hendrixs
-- bardou (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 29, 1999.
Mike Taylor: "Someone has to stay and help the people...I guess that's me. We can't all bug out to the hills."
Your attitude Mike, should be more pervasisve (sp?). I agree. Someone has to stay and help.
Bravo and Three Cheers, you are a brave man indeed.
-- mar (email@example.com), September 30, 1999.
Remember what I said on the previous thread started by you...If your dream occurred within 7 days of October 1st, consider it a genuine warning!
Evaluate the threat environment to yourself and most especially to your children!
-- K. Stevens (kstevens@ It's ALL going away in January.com), September 30, 1999.