I swear, The FED must have a big computer that is running this thing. How else can they explain away what happened today!

What a bunch of snookered day-traders!!

-- D.B. (dciinc@aol.com), September 28, 1999

Answers

It happened on the second day of big losses, too, and I thought the same thing as you. Some has got his fingers in the cookie jar and is doing some fancy footwork to keep things high at the end of the day!

-- winna (??@??.com), September 28, 1999.

Par for the course, I'm afraid. Do you think for one moment that TPTB will let their beloved debt-riddled financial system crash and burn that easily? They will use every trick in the book to maintain the status quo for as long as possible and to h-e-double-tooth-picks with the rest of us.

JJ

-- Jeremiah Jetson (laterthan@uthink.y2k), September 28, 1999.

Folks, insider and high level interventions are nothing new.

Is there any benefit to any of us (aside from gold enthusiasts) for the stock market to tank? I for one would love to see it gently settle to the ground................

It isn't likely to happen, but I'd still prefer it.

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), September 28, 1999.

Jeremiah,

Seems pretty obvious. About as obvious as 01/01/00, but thats another story!!

-- D.B. (dciinc@aol.com), September 28, 1999.

Whatta heapin, stinkin' pile of soft-serve dook! Not the thread, but the market itself. Notice that Gold didn't drop -much- though. Gold has always been the best indicator of economic health. Economy healthy, gold low, economy in trouble, gold high... nothing new, but this pile o' crap market play... I want to see it spiral in from 10000 in a flaming crash that leaves Wall Street covered in the ten-deep piles of rotting day-trader carcasses... I want to see CEO's swan diving 34 floors to shatter their nuggets on the concrete like a rotten pomegranite. Call me irresponsible...Call me psycotic...Call me what you like, but a little bloodletting and carnage among the 'haves' of this world would be the highest rated show in history... When the "Crash" finally does come, I'll be here on wall street, sitting in a chair, and watching the ledges... Now THATS entertainment!

-- Billy-Boy (Rakkasn@Yahoo.com), September 28, 1999.

What a group!!

Sung like true losers.......err, I mean doomers.

There's something seriously wrong with folks who pray for failures. But, when you've proven to be a complete loser all your life, you would naturally hope "something/anything" would level the playing field.......I guess......

Maybe in the next life huh gang? :-)

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), September 28, 1999.

I vote for the gradual air out-of-the-tires scenario too.

Diane

However...

Unrelated to Y2K... or...?

Icebergs May Be Lurking in America's Path
GEORGE WILL, Washington Post Writers Group
Monday, September 27, 1999
)1999 San Francisco Chronicle

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/ article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/1999/09/27/ED42573.DTL

[snip]

America's economic performance is generating understandable pride, and we know what pride goeth before. The editors of Forbes ASAP allow Mark Helprin, the novelist and essayist, an elegant dissent from the triumphalism of those who, intoxicated by modern marvels, abandon themselves to what he calls ``faith in emerging perfection, reason, justice, the linear concept of history.''

As an antidote to all that, Helprin offers some lines from Thomas Hardy's poem ``The Convergence of the Twain: Lines on the Loss of the Titanic'':

And as the smart ship grew

In stature, grace, and hue,

In shadowy silent distance grew the iceberg too.

Alien they seemed to be:

No mortal eye could see

The intimate welding of their later history.

Are there icebergs in America's path? None just now. None, that is, that any mortal eye can see.

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), September 28, 1999.

deano

i will hunt you down...in the dead of nite, and nail your tanned and flayed hide to the wall, for all to see

-- Dr. Moreau (unleashing@thewild.things), September 28, 1999.

Promise?????

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), September 28, 1999.

Doc??

You have apparently been peeking in the wrong window....

My hide isn't tanned.......:-)

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), September 28, 1999.

Deano -- what's wrong with "praying" for failures? Wouldn't you have prayed for Hitler and Stalin to "tank"? Some of us have a roader view of deserving candidates to tank in addition to the likes of Hitler and Stalin. Like Roosevelt and Klinton, and their cabinets and advisors. Like the Bushes. Like their cabinets and advisors. Like the Rockefellers and other owners of the banks that own the Federal Reserve. All the Wall Street and banking lackeys that have profited from the Federal Reserve manipulations. All the yuppies who can see ONLY dollar signs to the exclusion of everything else? Get the point?

I suppose for some of the more dense, that I have to state specifically that I find nothing wrong with making money -- legitimately, and that includes legitimate speculation. I had a nice bump-up in my net worth, today, for example.

-- A (A@AisA.com), September 28, 1999.

Hey Deano - I think he was referring to the intimate welding of your ass to the fire when your company goes tits up after rollover.

-- Doctor's apprentice (@ .), September 28, 1999.

I want a soft landing, please. No panic, just give the bad news gently, let them come to grips with that, let the air out slow, let the market drop as easy as we can.

It's going to be messy enough, without HOPING

-- bw (home@puget.sound), September 28, 1999.

Oops, fat finger.

without HOPING for panic and sky diving day traders.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), September 28, 1999.

From last week's mutual fund stats:

"Strong inflows continue to Large Cap Equity Index & Technology Funds;"

As long as mutual fund customers keep telling mutual fund managers to keep throwing money at those stocks, they will keep thowing money at those stocks. And, what better time to do it than when those stock prices are low?

Also, some companies, I don't know how many, have stock buy back programs in place. From their point of view also, the best time to buy back is when their stock price is low.

There are, of course, many other factors, including investors who make a practice of buying on "dips"; they call it "buy low and sell high". You may have heard of that point of view before.

If you presume "manipulation" when the market acts differently than you expect it to act, it may be due to leaving out too many factors while formulating your expectations.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), September 28, 1999.

While I don't believe that the Federal Reserve Bank was involved today, it does give one pause to consider their reaction to a major dip in the equities market. Would they attempt to intervene, ala the Red Chinese in the Hong Kong market? What percentage of the market might the Fed eventually own, and at what cost? If the market continues to slide (albeit more slowly), the Fed would be in for a loss... Would the Fed ask for management seats?

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), September 28, 1999.

For those who weren't watching:

(From the NYTimes/AP)

Stocks staged a stunning late-session rally today, with the Dow Jones industrials gaining nearly 200 points in the last two hours, to close with only modest declines. The strengthening dollar against the yen and some computerized buying program helped reverse the market's slide.

At the close on Wall Street, the Dow was down 27.86 at 10,275.53 after having fallen more than 222 points early in the afternoon. It marked the Dow's fifth drop in six sessions.

Broader stock indicators also fell slightly today...

Traders turned more positive when they saw the dollar make headway against the Japanese yen. ``We saw the dollar getting stronger against the yen and that's what turned things around,'' said Arthur Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co. ``It was a huge psychological barrier.''

Hogan said computerized buying programs also kicked in after the Dow fell more than 200 points.

Buying was scarce for most of the day amid a paucity of positive economic news. The downturn was particularly severe in the oil, financial services and computer sectors.

``The market is suffering from a vacuum of positive information,'' said John Shaughnessy, chief investment strategist at Advest Inc of Hartford, Conn. ''

As a result, investors have to deal with concerns of rising interest rates and gold prices and uncertainty regarding the value of the dollar vs. the Japanese yen. Although the surge in gold prices the past two days has helped gold mining concerns, it also may heighten inflation fears, Shaughnessy said...

The Conference Board, a research group, said today that consumer confidence dipped in September for a third consecutive month. The drop was larger than economists had expected, and may be a sign that consumer spending will slow. That could in turn influence the Fed against boosting interest rates to cool off the economy when its policy-setting Open Market Committee meets next Tuesday.

But the consumer confidence report did little to move the markets, which remained anxious and unsettled before the Fed meeting.

``This is a water-torture type of correction,'' said Alfred Goldman, chief market strategist for A.G. Edwards & Sons in St. Louis, of the market's recent performance. Goldman said the Dow rose 46 percent from early October through last April, and has been in a correction ever since.

He said that while there is some uncertainty about interest rates, most traders expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates alone...

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), September 28, 1999.

This thread has got me rolling in stitches - thanks Billy-Boy et al!

-- Y2KGardener (gardens@bigisland.net), September 28, 1999.

Does anyone know more about the "large computer buy program" which kicked in to cause the Dow to rise when the buy program kicked in? I'm curious about it. One thing an analyst did say was that the "buy" didn't seem genuine because it didn't last. Let me know! Thanks!

-- Diane (DiR99290343@aol.com), September 28, 1999.

Notice how gold just BLEW through the $300 mark, assuming that was supposed to be some kind of resistance?

Be very interesting to find out why the $268 level was passed through with ease a few days ago, when this WAS supposed to be the top resistance level in a corrective wave, before the larger "down" wave resumed!

I guess that a LOT of people are waking up to the realization that the US $ is nothing more than Y2K-compliant toilet paper, as I said a few nights ago.

Manipulation does look rampant in the major indexes. DJIA hot bottom around 10080 today, yet was down only about 27 for the day!

JIM STACK says that there IS NO major support until DJIA 9200, so we are seeing a tug-of-war between the greed and fear, unless, of course, the FED is buying calls like last october?

Wish I had a good site that has support/resistance charts for gold. ANyone know of one? I am well aware of GOLD-EAGLE, etc. but as good as they are, they have mainly older articles.

I do believe that the catalyst to the entire gold run we have seen so far does NOT have to do with Y2K(remember, 99% of people are not technical by nature, and barely even understand the term), but has to do with an article I read just late last week about the gold lease rates jumping to 5% or so, whereas B4, they were able to lease(gold carry) at about 1-2%, and make 5 or 6% on the money. Now the spread is GONE!

Gold actually hit $325 today. Wonder where it will be in Asia tonight?

Speaking of them, can't help but feel for the poor souls in TAIWAN, who are now suffering from mudslides from heavy rains. Will their misery ever end? Say a prayer for them.

-- profit_of_doom (doom@helltopay.ca), September 28, 1999.

Jerri,

Good points. There are a LOT of factors in the markets movement, with 100 Trillion in derivitives out there, etc.

I think something will happen SOON though. Something unexpected by us all. So be in a POSTION Trade of somesort and just go about preparing.

-- Gregg (g.abbott@starting-point.com), September 28, 1999.

Damn pollies are idiots. (Of course doomers are idiots too, but that's another thread.) Don't you realize that a slow, gentle correction is better then a crash? But there won't be a correction because the Dow, once again, is on the rise. If it is higher then 10,000 going into October there will be no chance of a correction anymore. It will crash, hard and fast. Hope that it dips below this week.

BTW, did I not predict this absurd turn of events? Damn. Well, see you all on the other side of samhain (sp?).

The Freak.

Oops...

-- Typhonblue (typhonblue@hotmail.com), September 28, 1999.

You know, there are lots of folks out there who were just waiting for the big correction they'd been hearing about. And once it went down officially 10% of the max, they said to themselves "well, there was the correction, now it's safe to buy again" and they jumped right back in with both feet. In the next few days, I expect, they will get a sudden education.

If you're determined to see everything as a conspiracy, you can find it in the Dow moves. But if whatever you're examining can be explained by simple incompetence, it's a more likely explanation. There always seems to be enough of that to go around.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), September 28, 1999.

The stock market move has been a parabolic advance (bubble). Parabolic advances NEVER end gently.

Its a known fact that the Fed has a 'plunge protection team' that meets privately behind closed doors. The Fed has always dealt in Bond and TBill markets to tweak money supply. They can also deal in Bond and TBill futures markets. There would be nothing to prevent them from dealing in Stock Index futures markets. I think they have and do. The S&P or Dow futures rally on their buy orders and the arbs hafta jump all over buying the underlying stocks.

We've been in an unprecidented bull market that started in the 30s. Galbraith and overt governmental policy got all the credit and gets all the green lights. The higher the stock market goes the more we idolize Greenspan. Galbraith's archrival, F Hayek, who warned against this kind of gov intervention and policy has been discredited. But you watch, Hayek and gold will be vindicated.

Bob Prechter is right on the fundamentals even though he's been off on the timing (wave 5s are like that). WE ARE IN THE 5TH WAVE OF A 5TH WAVE. This market euphoria isn't gonna end gently and this Fed Plunge Protection Team action is only gonna aggrevate it when it does pop. Hang on.

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), September 28, 1999.

Downstreamer,

Fritz Hayek tangled with J M Keynes way back when. I don't remember whether Hayek ever took the time to bother with Galbraith.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), September 28, 1999.

Downstreamer,

Agree. Well said.

-- Leslie (***@***.net), September 28, 1999.

How did you know I was referring to BOB PRECHTER? His last month EWFF newsletter(another one due out this Friday) stated the 4268 level as the highest that gold could possibly hit, based on his wave count.

Well, so much for him being correct about gold for almost 20 years! Anyone out there have any alternative RELIABLE charts for where gold is going this next while? Surely this is not an orchestrated run-up by the central banks, is it? I was just reading the RED BARON article at www.gold-eagle, and he was saying late Aug. that there was no way in hell the CB's would allow gold to rise. I leave with an important bit of info that I posted a few nights back here, in response to a query about just HOW the FED got to become what it is. ALL the answers are in a book titled" THE CREATURE FROM JEKYL ISLAND", put out in the early 1990's. When you read the massive documentation presented in that book, you shake your head wondering how the author managed to live to see it published.

It leaves out NOTHING!

-- profit_of_doom (doom@helltopay.ca), September 28, 1999.

WAIT! Jerry B is right. I screwed up my screwy economists.

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), September 28, 1999.

Yes, screwy economists are like that; the differences are often merely cosmetic. :-)

Jerry
P.S. In case it's not obvious, that wisecrack does not include Hayek. :-)

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), September 28, 1999.

Doc Wannabe

When you become a REAL doctor, we'll talk.

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), September 29, 1999.

A

I don't put a Wall Street failure in the same breath as Hitler. That borders on absurd.

Granted there are things that happen on Wall Street that are not on the up and up. Big deal, we're a capitalist country and I for one and damn proud of it. Please take into consideration the countless number of Americans that have 401(K) accounts set up for retirement before you wish for it all to come crashing down. Having this many people losing all (or most of) their money can't be a good thing.

And yall say you love this country???? Not from my point of view....

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), September 29, 1999.

I, too, would love to see the market crash and Y2K be a 10+. My reasoning is that I would love to see those who are now in power hit rock bottom with a nasty, gushy splat. Unfortunately that will not be the case. The only ones who will be really hurt are those struggling along like the most of us here. Those who I would like see burned are already secretly prepared and will again come out on top when all is said and done (unless a nuke hits them square in the face). So I have to temper my wishes and hope that things slide slowly down and allow the majority to cut their losses and try to survive.

-- winna (??@??.com), September 29, 1999.

Be careful what you wish for. It might come true.

-- (sickofthis@crap.com), September 29, 1999.

Winna (or is that WHINER)

Praying for a 10+. You must be so proud. Nope, that can't be. You're obviously thoroughly disgusted with you for not making anything of yourself when all the possibilities were there for the taking.

That's why people come here you know - The land of oppurtunity. If you don't take advantage of the "oppurtunity" then you have no one to blame but yourself.

Very sad Whiner........

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), September 29, 1999.

From rtoday's TheS treet.com:

Wall Street Can't Get a Rally Going, By Eileen Kinsella, Staff Reporter, 9/29/99 1:15 PM ET

"...I don't think we're out of the woods yet," said James Maguire Jr., a New York Stock Exchange specialist at Henderson Brothers, making what turned out to be an accurate prediction while the Dow was hanging on to a measly 50-point gain. "There's going to be a little more frenzied selling and an eventual retesting of those lows," he said, referring to yesterday's more-than-200-point drop. "We haven't really seen the panic selling yet."

...But the big news now is the big picture as far as the stocks are concerned, with many traders and analysts anticipating that the mild bounce will be followed by more nerve-wracking declines. "This is a corrective rally and when it's done it will give way to lower levels," said Steve Hochberg, co-editor of the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast.

Hochberg points to the progression of sectors that have peaked and were then "taken out to the woodshed" as an ominous pattern. Starting in 1997 with new yearly highs peaking on the Big Board, Hochberg cited the April 1998 peak in the Russell 2000 and the July S&P 500 peak, among others, ending with the Dow in late August. "This rolling progression of markets that are in sync to the downside is typical of a bear market. It's funny to see how many people are afraid of saying it but major averages are" indicating it, said Hochberg. "We are not done on the downside."

Indeed, Maguire said yesterday's turnaround in the Dow, when it quickly recouped most of its more-than-200-point drop, was due at least partly to fear of breaking the psychologically important 10,000 support level. It "got right near that level but it became apparent we were not going to go through that line in one shot," said Maguire...

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), September 29, 1999.