Sunday Night Quarterbacks: Huddle Up For Dow Predictionsgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Let's put it all down here for posterity. Make your call for the condition of the stock market by week's end. As you formulate your prediction, consider:
The Dow has already lost 1000 points since Aug.
The fourth quarter approaches.
Y2K in the news. (Read: uncertainty)
Yen v. Dollar
Gold up 10 bucks.
Surely I have missed something. As you post your prediction, be sure to include your reasons.
My call: Dow 9000 by Friday.
-- semper paratus (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 26, 1999
Dow hovering around 11,000 by weeks end.
-- (DowGuy@wallstreet.com), September 26, 1999.
I second That!
-- ET (email@example.com), September 26, 1999.
I'm hoping gold gets manipulated down again. DOW up early in the week at least a little. Another plunge by Friday.
-- Linda (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 26, 1999.
I'm with Linda - if gold goes down we can all afford to buy a little more nuggets :)
I'm going for a major tanking on the 21st October.
By Friday - WAG, 10,777...
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 26, 1999.
If Americans were smart, we would see a Dow of 9000 by weeks end. But since they are stupid (they have proved it by a percentage of 95% Y2K DGI) the Dow will be back up!
-- freddie (email@example.com), September 26, 1999.
Dow 9.700 by 10/1/99
-- Jim Hawk (Hawk@eye.sky), September 26, 1999.
This is a little more long term but.....
Over the next 2 months the DJ will flirt with 9000 and at that point long termers will go into a buying frenzy, avoiding techie stock and the DJ will shoot back over 11000 but not fairing so well for nasdaq. By years end I see a nicely adjusted (but still a little bubble) DJ in place for slow, long term, normal gains....no more Bull Market...just "grazing cattle". As a side note I see upstart techie firms (IPO's in the last 12-24 months) dropping from the skies like flies.
-- Jack Mercer (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 26, 1999.
I think early this week, it will drop again. then- all the sheeple, heeding the mantra that they can't time the market, when the price drops, it's the time to buy, etc, etc, will buy more stock- blue chip stuff mostly- IBM, etc- and the market will rise again. then it will meander along, and drop big with the next bad news.....
-- farmer (email@example.com), September 26, 1999.
I don't like making predictions on a market this volatile. Most bets on market specifics are worthless in my opinion. Direction and trend are another story.
However, that being said, I want to wait for the Ecuadorian announcement and the open on the Nikkei in a few. They will give good direction.
-- Gordon (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 26, 1999.
9800 by Friday
-- maggie (email@example.com), September 26, 1999.
I'm with Linda!
-- The Count of Meijer Crisco (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 26, 1999.
Next week we will see a dead cat bounce.
Dow 10,700 by Friday.
Believe that the gore will start middle of first week of October.
-- wayne witcher (email@example.com), September 26, 1999.
I have posted here, but under another thread, my exact thoughts on gold. As strange as it may sound, gold will go DOWN from here(meaning the $268-9 level), continuing the long-term down wave. In fact, it just hit the target exactly for the upward "correction" in its long-term slide. Problem with gold is not that it WON'T be worth alot someday, it's just that that day has not arrived yet, as the big powers that be have done such a masterful collusion job on the public to make it seem that all gold is just "fool's gold". As for the DJIA, another surprise: it will meander this week, having met its bottom short-term target of 10,200. It will rise to only around 10,600 within the next two weeks, then LOOK OUT. I will post next week, as events unfold , the source of my information. But it WILL be accurate!
-- profit_of_doom (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 26, 1999.
I agree--gold down and the market up before they reverse again in the second half of October. But the market won't really totally tank-- yet...
-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), September 26, 1999.
Wall Street Braces for More Losses Yen, Interest Rates Worry Investors
By Amy Collins Reuters
NEW YORK (Sept. 26) - Unable to find a calm port of safety, analysts are expecting another down week on Wall Street amid concerns over the strong yen, higher interest rates and corporate profit warnings.
Even the weekend meeting of the Group of Seven and its attention to cooling off the strengthening yen failed to encourage Wall Street analysts.
''We share Japan's concern about the potential impact of the yen's appreciation for the Japanese economy and the world economy,'' said the G7 statement, issued Saturday.
Analysts said the statement was too vague to muster strong confidence on Wall Street. ''Basically, I'm not sure how the markets are going to interpret this initially,'' said Peter Cardillo, director of research at Westfalia Investments. ''It's somewhat dubious, because Japan in the past has taken less action than the United States really wanted.''
The dollar has sunk below three-year lows against the yen as the Japanese economy recovers and money flows back into Asian stocks. The dollar was at 104 against the yen Friday.
The week ahead will see few corporate earnings reports, two speeches from always-cryptic Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and the release of one of his favorite economic indicators, the National Association of Purchasing Managers manufacturing report for September.
''We're looking at scrambled eggs,'' said Alan Ackerman, a senior vice president and market strategist at Fahnestock & Co. ''I think there's going to be somewhat of a buyers strike.''
Wall Street was just stung by one of its worst weeks in history as it broke through the bottom of key support levels by midday Thursday. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 524.30 points for the week, its fifth straight weekly decline, and closed at 10,279.33.
The Nasdaq composite index closed 129.21 points lower for the week, at 2,740.41. The Standard & Poor 500 index closed 58.06 points lower, at 1,277.36.
Declines in U.S. stocks have been blamed on a range of causes, including fear of rising interest rates, the strength of the yen against the dollar, corporate profit warnings, angst that stocks -- especially in the technology sector -- are overvalued and trepidation over just how low a new trading range might settle.
Declining stocks have continued to outpace advancers. Friday alone, 264 stocks set new lows while only 9 made new highs.
''The trends in the background are bearish,'' said Stephen Shobin, a technical analyst at Lehman Brothers. ''The market's responding much more egregiously to bad news.''
''Fear of the Fed'' will be on everyone's lips again as Wall Street hunkers down ahead of the Oct. 5 meeting of the Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee, which could vote to raise interest rates for a third time this year.
Greenspan will deliver a speech entitled ''Lessons from Global Crisis'' at the World Bank/International Monetary Fund annual meeting Monday evening. Thursday evening in Minneapolis, he will speak on ''Trade and Technology.''
Monday morning, Federal Reserve Governor Laurence Meyer and Federal Reserve Bank of New York president William McDonough will address the Institute of International Bankers. Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Robert Parry will speak on monetary policy.
In addition to the speeches, analysts will watch the numbers. September consumer confidence figures will arrive Tuesday, the August durable goods orders Wednesday and August new home sales Thursday. Along with the NAPM number, Friday will also see the release of August personal income and consumption figures.
Only a handful of companies are expected to report earnings this week, according to First Call/Thomson Financial.
Internet holding company CMGI Inc. and microchip maker Micron Technology Inc. are expected to report Monday. Auto parts dealer AutoZone Inc., clothing retailer Nautica Enterprises Inc. and retailer Family Dollar Stores Inc. are set for Tuesday. Wednesday will see earnings from shoe seller Finish Line Inc. .
On tap for Thursday is Marriott International Inc. and two supermarket companies: Safeway Inc. and Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co., the operator of A&P.
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-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Y2KOK.ORG), September 26, 1999.
At close on 10/01: DJIA: 10,012 NASDAQ: 2623 NYSE: 571 S&P 500: 1227 DOT: 565
If I win, I'll buy a round for everyone. Beer or hollow-point, your choice. :-P
Weatherman (mostly cloudy)
-- Weatherman (email@example.com), September 27, 1999.
The "BIG MONEY" isn't about to let this go just yet. Somewhere along the way look for an S&P number like 1066.
-- thinkIcan (thinkIcan@make.it), September 27, 1999.
Ecuador, Taiwan, North Carolina, Turkey, Y2K. October approaching.
Dow 9500 Friday closing. That's optimistic.
-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 27, 1999.
I'll agree with Linda. A hundred point bounce for the DOW Industrials monday and tuesday, then down below 10,000 by friday. A thousand point drop by the end of October, another thousand by the mid- december. 6,400 by March 31 (although that could possibly be the end of June due to market closures and restrictions.).
Commodities: Oil steadily climbing to $30 by October 30, $40 by November 30, $50 by year-end. Coffee (now 90-something) slumping slightly until November 30, then climbing to $140-150 by January 25. Cocoa doubling by January 31.
-- Mad Monk (email@example.com), September 27, 1999.
whom really cares money does not exist anyhow so u all play the game THATS WHAT THEY WANT YOU TOO DO.
-- sandy (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 27, 1999.
10/1 -Dow 9,950, NASDQ -down 100
-- (email@example.com), September 27, 1999.
(1) Equador dafaults on US guaranteed bonds.
(2) Asian markets already down.
This does not look as optimistic as my earlier post!
-- Mad Monk (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 27, 1999.
Gold up 15.00!!! Futures up 10.
-- (DowGuy@wallstreet.com), September 27, 1999.