I listened to Peter de Jager's 100 day countdown message on Ed Yardeni's site. He spent most of his brief talk on electric power, how the Y2K thing evolved in the industry (late). One of his main points is that no one anywhere has demonstrated a single finding that, unfixed, would have interrupted electric power.

There are at least two reports of such problems that have come to my attention in the last 18 months. One was mentioned in a Y2K article in US News and World Report in early to mid 1998, where rolling the clocks forward caused shutdown. The other was an anecdote from Sen. Bob Bennett, who had just seen a successful Y2K test at a power plant when he asked, "You tried that before I came here, didn't you?" The plant managers admitted that they had already run the test, then admitted that the test had failed at another plant, and that's why they chose this one.

Were these reports made up? Why is the State Dept. rating some geographic areas as moderate to high risk of power interruption if no significant problems have been found anywhere? If anyone knows of any problems found that would interrupt power, would you please tell Peter de Jager?

-- Anonymous, September 24, 1999

Answers

PC World has an article that states "according to de Jager you can relax. Power generation around the world is unlikely to be affected." Also, "the whole notion of blackouts, is bogus." And again, as in the T-100 audio conference the article states that "Nowwhere (globally) has any power utility found anything related to Y2K that could have shut off or disrupted power supply" also, "he reckons that there may be some blackouts over the millenium period , this will be due to local management problems as demand fluctuates, rather than computer systems." http://www.pcworld.com/pcwtoday/article/0,1510,12918,00.html

-- Anonymous, September 24, 1999

CA Magazine September 1999 By Peter de Jager

<<>>

At least Mr. de Jager is calling for alternative sources of power as a contingency.

-- Anonymous, September 25, 1999

What does it matter, De Jager will be flying on one of the empty airplanes that will not be falling from the skies.

He will be one of the few stupid enough to fly if his flight is not cancelled due to lack of demand by then.h

-- Anonymous, September 25, 1999

There already were folks in Great Britain who lost electricity due to a y2k problem

-- Anonymous, September 25, 1999

From the US Senate's Y2K Committee 100-day report, executive summary:

"A prolonged, nationwide blackout will almost certainly not occur; that is, the power grid will work. However, local and regional outages remain a distinct possibility depending upon the readiness of the 3,000 utilities serving any given area."

Dear Senators Bennett and Dodd:

you could have saved yourselves a lot of trouble if you had only talked to Peter de Jager.

Sincerely,

-- Anonymous, September 25, 1999

There seem to be outrageous claims and predictions being made at both extremes of the Y2k scenarios. The far out Doomers see the end of the world and a return to primitive tribal type social conditions. The far out Pollyanna sees little or no problems, never were major problems, and things will be pretty much the same. Sure, a possible mild recession, but then a returning booming economy. I think those in the vocally extreme areas (when not intentionally lying or deceiving you) are both suffering deep psychological stress, but it is being resolved in two different ways. Peter deJager has publicly admitted to such stress-out and openly stated his longing for this whole thing to be over. He has bounced from Doomer to Pollyanna. If that change of character did not come from some basic dishonesty trait, and I don't think it did, then he has had a sharp internal reaction to the unfolding news. He has not slowly slid from Doomer, down through the large middle ground, but rather made an abrupt shift of position last year. I personally give him no more credit anymore for solid intellectual thinking than I do to any disturbed person. Mental disturbance is a very shaky ground. Fear, confusion, and foreboding can push almost anyone into a period of invalid thinking. The person who becomes so disabled is rarely able to see what has happened to him/herself. For myself, I subscribe to the Ed Yourdon scenario of a year of disruptions followed by a 10 year depression. We had something like that start in late 1929. That is a middle ground ballpark probability to me. Statements from de Jager or Com ED are nothing more than a simplistic La-La Land, the way I interpret what's going on.

-- Anonymous, September 26, 1999

P.S. on Com Ed. They are right now deep into an attempt to merge with PECO, so what would you expect them to be saying about their own remediation work so far?

-- Anonymous, September 26, 1999

Didn't I see a post from Malcomb not too long ago that described a problem found by a competing utility, that might have interrupted power?

-- Anonymous, September 26, 1999

Bill,

The problem encountered by our main competitor would not have interupted power, but would have meant that generation would continue at its previous setpoint unless altered manually. Also plant would need to be started manually rather than via remote control.

I believe that at this stage they have developed a work-around for this issue, but it is difficult to obtain information on competitors. Next time that I see my friend who works for them I will get a better update on their progress.

Malcolm.

-- Anonymous, September 26, 1999

Thanks Malcolm. Sorry I spelled your name wrong.

-- Anonymous, September 29, 1999

I wanted to add my two bits here. A couple of weeks ago a strong storm pocket touched down in the neighborhood. Several poles were taken down and a 6kv substation tripped off. This substation is across the street from me. It is surrounded by a ten foot brick wall which is topped with razor spikes all around. The two sets off double steel doors are manually operated and battery powered flood lights were on. Within a few minutes there were two trucks, a supervisor and several crewmen. I assume one of the transformers took a hit and it wasn't long before partial power was restored and full repairs completed within 6 hours. These guys had it all together. Very profesional.

This is what most likely be my last words on the grid. Based on my own personal research and observations I expect the grid to mostly stay up during the Y2K rollover period. One or two obscure failures may give operators a few minutes of activity, that's all. Of much more concern will be the following weeks and months, due to economic issues as well as other possible embedded systems problems, the wild card of Y2K. There ARE viable alternatives to nuclear dependence. I would feel much better if we did not have nuclear power at all. The eastern portion of North America is most at risk in this area. This risk is ongoing, right now. I am goinf to start a new thread on the topic of localizing power generation with green fuels as one positive aspect of the whole issue.

To sum it up - The grid will more or less remain as it is through the rollover. The weeks following will most likely offer challenges and I am glad I don't live in the eastern interconnect region. (80% dependence on nuclear)

-- Anonymous, September 30, 1999

Hmmm...deJager has become more optomistic than me?? ;) I am not so confindent, I think that we might have had some regulatory problems at some nuclear plants with plant computer systems, at coal plants with stack emission monitoring systems (no proof, not an expert opinion, just a gut feeling). I have seen industry findings of operator stations that malfunction (but the actual control system keeps humming). Throw these kinds of problems together with humans, and its possible something can go wrong.

Internationally, I have posted a link in another thread to a 1999 problem that WOULD have caused a plant shutdown on January 1, 1999.

I have said that I haven't found a device that will directly trip the plant - that doesn't mean that it's not out there, but if it is, at least it's rare. My confidence that the lights will stay on is based on: 1. Industry is identifying and fixing (by far mostly minor bugs in embedded systems). And testing mission critical systems. 2. If a plant, or a few plants, DO trip due to missed Y2K bug problems, it doesn't automatically mean a loss of power to the customers, plant trips happen all the time - enough capacity would have to be lost to cause protective trips (or manual opening of breakers) for a loss of power to occur.

Regards,

-- Anonymous, October 06, 1999