Stock Market: What's it going to do today? : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Dow down a 100 + points?! Where's the Friday recovery! Come on sheeple, don't let us down now.

-- Stan Faryna (, September 24, 1999


Here's CNNfn's US market summary page:

Leave it up in its own window and it'll refresh itself every five minutes with the almost-current values. As of 11:34 AM (eastern) the numbers for the DJIA were:

10198.91 -119.68 9/24 11:34

We might be about to see that "correction," folks...

That guy posts too much, and they keep shouting that he's called...

-- OddOne (, September 24, 1999.

Oh Boy! The Prediction Game!

The bulls will be pouring in whatever cash or credit (probably credit) they can lay hands on. Don't underestimate the ability of a fund manager with $20-30 Billion in assets to misuse a credit line in this market.

OTOH, the foreign money in the market is looking hard for any good news on the stabilization of the dollar. They got a little good news overnight, when the Japanese market slipped hard and the yen stopped appreciating against the dollar for a moment. That may slow down the exodus of hot money.

I say, look for a lot of volatility today, with the downside catching momentum in the last hour. Could be down 150-300 on the DIA. But, what the heck do I know?

-- Brian McLaughlin (, September 24, 1999.

"Sheeple?" What's next, Stan? Clinton with a "K?"

Looking at daily fluctuations in the market is rarely productive. The challenge for savvy investors is to ignore the "white noise" every day from the talking heads. I moved out of the market, mostly in April, because I felt the "big picture" suggested a downturn beginning in the fall. I made a decision to sit out the U.S. market until the middle of 2000... waiting for what I felt was a strong possibility of recession and some reasonable equity prices.

I have missed some opportunities over the summer, but I believe in my original game plan. For the most part, I ignore the daily reports and focus on the larger market fundamentals. We still are not even close to reality-based valuations. I respectfully suggest the virtue of patience. The Dow is of little concern to someone parked in short term T's.

-- Ken Decker (, September 24, 1999.

What's it going to do today?

It's going to fluctuate.

-- Rob Michaels (, September 24, 1999.

Ken the Y2K Cockroach splurts again. Eeewwwwww

-- raid (quick@spray.more), September 24, 1999.

I predict a 500 point drop today.

-- Rick (, September 24, 1999.

My IBM Put Option positions have all doubled in value!

I have several times advised all of you to invest in Put Options..........

Nobody listened!

Nobody made money, except me!

-- freddie (, September 24, 1999.

C'mon, Raid... I'm used to a higher quality of personal attacks. Perhaps you can dazzle us with your market analysis?

-- Ken Decker (, September 24, 1999.

Mr Decker,

IMHO the daily reports are adding up in a hurry here. Its kind of like the daily reports we see with y2k. Now on the one hand, you predict a recession that will last until at least the middle of next years but you don't see major complication with y2k. Am I correct here? Also, I got out of the market a couple of months ago and also missed some opportunities but in hindsight my t-bill investment look good. I also have to congratulate freddie. The spinmaster at CBNC stated that anybody trying to PUT the market was taking a big risk. LOL on him..

-- y2k dave (, September 24, 1999.

We have just received a nice bonus check. Is it too late to get into gold? What do you do with a few thousand? Walk into a coin store and get some eagles? How do you know if your getting ripped or not?

-- The Count of Meijer Crisco (40@cansof.course), September 24, 1999.

Today, only the gamblers try to profit on short term movements. The $64 question is where will it be in a month, or better yet on 12/31?

Not good timing for excessive weakness now. End of quarter stuff. Also I think I read somewhere where the large hedge funds allow only quarterly re-positioning, and scared money may start coming out before the next quarter (only 4 days left after today.) If these liquidations are large (only big investors get to play with these boys anyway), could be a rocky ride ahead for the next few days.

Down big today 150+ with short covering buying coming in to erase some of the losses today. Down 75 at the end of the day. How's that for a guess......12:16pm now.....Down down 101 as I type.

Guess for 12/31.........Dow 6500.......

-- Bill (, September 24, 1999.

Mr. Decker, you write smart and interesting posts, but MUST you be so insufferably smug, patronizing, and condescending ?? Even many great scientists and artists and other geniuses have been modest and humble people (though not all of them). I'm sure there are a few people as smart and capable as yourself reading this board. A little humility would go a long way in your case. I shouldn't speak myself, of course, considering the "Count" in my handle, but that is just a literary allusion.

-- Count Vronsky (, September 24, 1999.


I predict the recession will start next year and occur partly because of Y2K problems. The complications I see from Y2K are primarily economic. Unlike some on this forum, I do not anticipate a collapse of basic services nor do I foresee social unrest outside of large urban areas. Anticipating your objection, almost anything is POSSIBLE. In my opinion, the most probable impact of Y2K is a sharp economic downturn. As has been the case throughout history, the poor of the world will suffer the most.

I have a few acquaintances "shorting" the market... but it can be a dangerous game. A positive bounce can leave "Freddie" out to dry.

As for gold, it might be of some value in an inflationary setting. Personally, I prefer raw land with no restrictions or covenants. You can't grow crops or raise animals on gold.

-- Ken Decker (, September 24, 1999.

Made several grand in prudent bear yesterday. Will make several more today. The gold I stocked up on recently when I advised you all to buy at those firesale prices is gaining in value daily. It's still not too late to buy gold - which will be the only means of wealth preservation when the dollar tanks and we enter a hyperinflationary depression next year.

On no account listen to the brain dead moron going by the name of ddecker. Land my ass. there will be so much land and cars and houses up for sale at giveaway prices next year that it doesn't bear thinking about. All those .com yuppies will be going bankrupt by the boatload...

But you go right ahead. Listen to ddecker with his lame-assed t-bills.

The dolar is tanking right now and this idiot says to put your wealth in worthless pieces of toilet paper called t-bills.


Yeah, that explains a lot...

-- Andy (, September 24, 1999.

Hello Ken Decker: In your predictions above, you stated: "...nor do I foresee social unrest outside of large urban areas." Do you foresee social unrest inside large urban areas? If so, what do you believe will lead to such unrest? I have been visiting this forum daily since August 98, and do not recall that you ever had such a dismal view of coming events.

-- jeanne (, September 24, 1999.

Andy! You ditch your girlfriend, I'll ditch me boy, and get married this instant.

I'm burning up to play poker with you and your gold. (I'll return the winnings nightly :) .)

-- lisa (, September 24, 1999.


Don't you know that Ken is a closet doomer.

It's just taken a while for him to figure that out.

By springtime next year he'll be talking to his dog and saying, "I knew it was going to be bad." Time to throw another T-bill log on the fire.

-- nothere nothere (, September 24, 1999.


Way to go!! I remember you telling everyone about Put Options. If the market hits 10,000 I think it will trigger a major sell. Been watching those lame brains on CNBC palavering about "Now is the time to buy." I have not see that butthole, Joe Battipukelia lately. Mr. Bull Market himself. Bet his head is in a hole, probably up his ass.

-- ($$@$$.com), September 24, 1999.

I would say the market is going up again except for the fact that gold is going up so dramatically. I take that as a big sign. YOu can still buy physical gold, sure. I would suggest not buying locally. I did my first purchase at the Diamond Exchange and got a LOUSY price. Buy from an Internet company. You will have to send a check and when it clears, they will send the package. Do a search and price compare. I have used Afforadable Jewelry and Precious Metals. Good luck.

-- Mara Wayne (, September 24, 1999.

Wall Street turns mixed after negative opening

``I don't think we've made a bottom,'' said Bill Meehan, chief market analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald in Darien, Conn.

Cantor Fitzgerald

-- j (j@j.j), September 24, 1999.

Don't get me wrong, I don't want to see any so-called corrections. And I definitely don't want to see a Krash. And I only use the endearment, sheeple, with the greatest affection.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (, September 24, 1999.

Count Crisco,

Call around and compare prices. I did find one great place locally. I think it might be important and worth it to be able to take immediate physical possession. My newbie humble opinion on it.

-- Mumsie (, September 24, 1999.

Thanks Mara i was just at their website I think I'm going to order some Eagles. It's all so confusing - what to do.

Hey Andy are Eagles worth it? I was thinking of buying maybe $3500 today.

That Van Halen song Jump keeps on playing in my head. I can hear David Lee Roth singing "might at well jump"

-- The Count of Meijer Crisco (40@cansof.course), September 24, 1999.

P.S. As for the current President of the United States of America, I am on record (published opinion that dates back many years) for being far less generous than misspelling his name. But I do treasure a thank you note from him for my obscure book on black conservative thought.

-- Stan Faryna (, September 24, 1999., 09/24/1999: Jangled Nerves Remain in Control of Battered Market

...All the standard reasons for the market's recent weakness were operating today. Fears about a coming interest-rate hike. Fears about the yen's resurgence against the dollar. Fears about third-quarter earnings preannouncements. And, especially after yesterday's off-the-cuff reference to "absurd" tech valuations by Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) President Steve Ballmer, more than a little fear about how much higher this market can go.

Taken together, those fears are turning more than a few into amateur technical analysts. "It's momentum now," said Brian Belski, chief investment strategist George K. Baum in Kansas City, Mo.

Indeed, lately we've heard a lot about momentum, and the technical damage that the market has sustained. The S&P 500 futures have blown through the neckline on a head-and-shoulders pattern. The Dow has blown through key support at 10,500. The S&P 500 has blown through its 200-day moving average.

Which leads one to wonder, when will all this blowing be through?

Like every other honest person in the market, Belski doesn't know. But his recent conversations with clients haven't been suggesting that it'll happen anytime soon. "We're not close to a washout, because the fear factor isn't peaking yet," he said. "The bulk of my calls yesterday were, 'What do I need to buy, Brian?' That doesn't usually coincide with a market bottom. [Selling] peaks when people are begging you to tell them what to sell."

Concurring was John Bollinger, president of Equity, who noted that he hadn't seen any of the sentiment indicators that he watches change significantly lately. "That suggests to me that there's some further pain to come," he said...

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), September 24, 1999.



-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), September 24, 1999.

For those of you buying gold. Shop around on
-- John Ainsworth (, September 24, 1999.

Hey, are we betting here? I got one pack of 7-11 matches for Dow down 100 +/- 5 points. Any takers?

-- Stan Faryna (, September 24, 1999.

Sorry, Count, but on this thread I tried to stay on topic (with the exception of a brief riposte to "Raid.")

Andy, I hope you do well in gold. It has been a "dog" investment for two decades, but they say every dog has its day. By the way, many real assets will retain value in a hyperinflationary economy... and who's to say our next downturn will not be deflationary? If you want to bet on hyperinflation, why not leverage yourself to the hilt and buy gold... you can pay the notes with inflated dollars? Of course, if we have modest inflation or deflation... you may be broke.

On the subject of land, your statement about hyperinflation is contradictory with your contention land, cars and houses will be available "on the cheap." Hyperinflation, the rapid increase of prices, includes real property. (See the Weimar Republic)

Finally, while you hold a low opinion of the "full faith and credit" of the U.S. government, treasury bills have been a reliable investment for quite some time. I suppose if you think the U.S. government is going to fall, you might not want to invest in them. I happen to think the Republic will survive Y2K... so I prefer short- term treasuries to burying gold in a mason jar.

Jeane, social unrest is always a possibility, particularly in large urban areas. Witness the recent Los Angeles riots. While widely reported, however, most urban riots have "short legs." Ironically, the looters often raid merchants in their own inner-city neighborhoods. This said, I think some forum regulars overestimate the staying power and range of riots in early January.

On the accustion of being a "closet doomer," my preparation recommendations are a matter of record on the forum. In my opinion, your best advice is to tighten up financially for hard times

In such times, "T" bills should be more useful than consumer debt.

-- Ken Decker (, September 24, 1999.


I hope (with all my heart) you are right about the Republic. I believe the foundations laid were solid and the builders paid in blood, sweat and tears.

I also think we are riding on the residual crest of her glory. The foundation has been attacked, weakened and cracked. I hope your optimism is not misplaced by confusing the former with the latter.

-- Mumsie (, September 24, 1999.

I felt very relieved when the DOW regained its earlier losses.

That means I can make some more preparations before TSHTF.

-- Randolph (, September 24, 1999.

Listen to this crapola... :)

"Andy, I hope you do well in gold. It has been a "dog" investment for two decades, but they say every dog has its day. By the way, many real assets will retain value in a hyperinflationary economy... and who's to say our next downturn will not be deflationary? If you want to bet on hyperinflation, why not leverage yourself to the hilt and buy gold... you can pay the notes with inflated dollars? Of course, if we have modest inflation or deflation... you may be broke."

This guy, as well as being clueless, is totally naieve, or pretending to be dumb (not too difficult...)


check out the latest Ravi Batra book...

Gold is going to the moon my friends...

T-Bills will be useful for kindling...

-- Andy (, September 24, 1999.

G7 meeting will decide our fate this week.

-- Andy (, September 25, 1999.

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