IBM, Red Cross suggest safeguards for New Year's Computer giant and aid agency suggest using common sense

Jonathan Chevreau Financial Post

A recent internal publication issued by International Business Machines Corp. focused on the Y2K problem, advises employees around the world to make personal contingency plans and be prepared on personal finances, including putting aside some extra cash.

The special 1999 issue of IBM's Think magazine, headlined simply "Understanding Y2K," also advises workers to be flexible about vacation plans and to be prepared for unusually heavy workloads in the fourth quarter of 1999 and first quarter of 2000.

"In planning for the transition to 2000, nothing is being taken for granted, and few scenarios are too far-fetched," it warns.

For personal living preparations, it largely relies on the recommendations of the American Red Cross, available on the Internet at www.redcross.org/disaster/ safety/y2k.html.

"Stock non-perishable foods, water and medications you use regularly," the IBM publication says. "Have some extra cash on hand; fill your gas tank a day or so before New Year's Eve; and have blankets, gloves, flashlights and extra batteries on hand in case of power failures." (It suggests candles are hazardous.)

While the document says "there's no reason to panic," it also suggests that employees "should talk to your personal bank/credit union/health-care provider about whether they are ready." It also cautions people to "beware of rumours," particularly spread over the Internet.

While personal preparation suggestions are often cited by Y2K skeptics as coming from the lunatic fringe, it's quite another thing coming from IBM or the Red Cross.

But IBM acknowledges it has been essentially near "ground zero" in the whole Y2K phenomenon. In 1964, it reminds us, IBM introduced the System/360 mainframe, and used a two-digit year to conserve space on punch cards.

Indeed it is a former IBMer-- Peter de Jager -- who became dubbed the Paul Revere of the Y2K crisis when he issued his call for action in a 1993 article in Computerworld magazine, headlined "Doomsday 2000."

Last March, Mr. de Jager declared Doomsday had, in fact, been avoided, asserting that the world had at least broken the back of Y2K enough to avert the most far-out "end of the world as we know it" apocalyptic scenarios.

That doesn't mean there won't be days or weeks of disruptions. What's remarkable about the IBM publication is its repeated reminders that "all markets, all businesses, all governments and all communities are interconnected."

In fact, IBM's graphic descriptions of Y2K interconnectedness and interdependencies aren't radically different from the dire falling-domino theories of such Y2K doomsayers as Dr. Gary North and Joe Boivin.

"It's not enough to convert your own business, because you're not ready until your entire supply chain is," IBM says.

"It's not enough to live in a Y2K-ready neighborhood unless all its interwoven threads -- businesses, schools, neighbourhood associations, police and fire departments -- are ready. Y2K will throw these interconnections into sharp relief."

The publication warns of the billions of embedded chips contained in such diverse technologies as oil-drilling equipment, airplanes, medical devices and microwave ovens.

It says efforts to find and fix embedded chips will continue "well after Jan. 1, 2000." Mr. de Jager calls embedded chips the wild card of Y2K.

But Y2K, according to IBM, is not primarily about the way we code dates in computer software, hardware or components. Rather, "it's mostly about how information technology has spread throughout our economy, society and personal lives."

IBM recognizes that opinions about the consequences of not being Y2K-ready "range all over the map. Perhaps the biggest problem with Y2K is that no one knows exactly what will happen."

From its interaction with customers around the world, IBM does not see anything to support predictions of a global recession or some kind of "digital winter."

It says large U.S. organizations "should be ready," although it is "less certain ... how small businesses and less developed nations will fare... Many are on the move now, but they've got to pick up the pace."

IBM met with some internal resistance when it began one year ago -- relatively late in the game -- to gather data on contingency plans. It eventually came up with 10 scenarios "that could possibly go wrong -- from applications and systems failures to disruptions in utilities, telephone and public mail services." It called the exercise sobering.

That's why businesses have developed contingency plans and why individuals should also regard some personal preparations as a form of insurance against disruptions.

The Red Cross suggests having on hand at least a three-day supply of household staples. This is consistent with the most conservative Y2K-preparation gurus, who compare any possible disruptions to a weekend storm. There are plenty of Y2K experts who argue for a month or many months of supplies.

The Red Cross Disaster Supplies Kit checklist includes storing a gallon of water per person per day, non-perishable food, a first-aid kit, non-prescription drugs, various sanitation items such as toilet paper, tools such as flashlights and battery-operated radio, a non-electric can opener, warm clothing, extra eyeglasses or contact lenses and much more.

Canadian Y2K gurus would add to the list a supply of firewood for a fireplace or wood stove.

Don't wait until the final few weeks, since such supplies could be unavailable, scarce or very costly.

Coming from prominent Y2K gloom-and-doomers, such survival contingency plans might appear ludicrous. But when they come from IBM and the Red Cross, maybe -- just maybe --there may be cause to take at least the teensiest bit of personal preparations.

Besides, even if Y2K ends up a blustery gust rather than a raging storm, there's always the possibility a major blizzard or other act of God could strike.

Residents of Eastern Canada who suffered through the ice storm almost two years ago would have welcomed having a lot more than the Red Cross' three days worth of provisions. Mr. de Jager told CTV News last week that two or three weeks of provisions would be prudent.

As of tomorrow, there are just 100 days until the turn of the century.

Jonathan Chevreau can be reached by e-mail at jchevreau@nationalpost.com

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Y2KOK.ORG), September 22, 1999

Answers

In fact, IBM's graphic descriptions of Y2K interconnectedness and interdependencies aren't radically different from the dire falling-domino theories of such Y2K doomsayers as Dr. Gary North and Joe Boivin.

IBM...say, aren't they the same group of doomers that claimed the FAA's mainframes couldn't be made y2k compliant?

ROTFLMAO

-- a (a@a.a), September 22, 1999.

Excellent article Uncle Bob. I'm sending this out asap to my DGI relatives and friends.

Things are really, really heating up now.

Mike

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-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), September 22, 1999.

Well if all we had to worry about was a few days without electricity, wounldn't be a problem. I am almost sure we a heading to a big down turn in the economy big time.Maybe a depression and soon. I do hope people on this fornum have stocked for both, either one is life theating.You can die by not thinking ahead. In fact,I think most and including me have been living in a fools paradise. we think nothing can happen to us. Well, I guess every age thought the same thing and where did it get them, Rome burned, pompei oh that hurt, depression ''29 hit they jumped out of windows many feet up, the common people didn't see it coming either, they were hurt,some starved,but the one what survied never forgot and they told their kids the ones who would lesson,of how they made it.Will we as a people have the same kind of gumption as owner parents and grandparents I hope so I truly so.

-- ET (bneville@zebra.net), September 22, 1999.

Surely y'all know what I think about the Red Cross and their "response" to that three-day storm named Floyd. They fix on failure and thousands of North Carolinians are hurting excruciatingly because of it. This is NOT what Red Cross public service ads promise. Don't trust their three-days-of-preps-for-Y2K!

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), September 22, 1999.

Uncle Bob - link please, to Financial Post article, at least. thanks, chris

-- Chris Byrne (cbyrne98@hotmail.com), September 22, 1999.

Here's the link...

http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost.asp?s2=investing&s3=personal finance&f=990921/83616.html

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Y2KOK.ORG), September 22, 1999.

Now in the easy-to-use push-button package: IBM, Red Cross suggest safeguards for New Year's

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), September 30, 1999.