Let's just say.......

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Lets just say that most of the predictions on this forum are wrong. That Y2K comes and goes without much of anything happening to the general populace. That Power, Water, Phones are all OK. Maybe a small company or store here and there that didnt do anything goes out of business but in general nothing much happens that isnt more then an annoyance or aggravation for the vast majority. There may be a recession but itll be due to the natural end of the Bull Market, not Y2K induced.

How long will it take for the usual suspects that post for the light bulb to go on and say they were wrong? Will you wait until the middle of January (accumulated effects?), February 29th, March 1st, June, December 31st, 2001? 2010, 2015?

Note Im not asking for comments or a debate on if its a good idea to prepare or what you will do will all of your food and ammo afterwards. Im asking if there is a time period after 1/1/2000 when youll come to the realization that your basic assumptions were wrong if things dont go as predicted.

(And I cant help but wonder if you will blame it on Government or Companies for misleading you or will you blame it on the Y2K gurus?)

-- The Engineer (The Engineer@tech.com), September 21, 1999


If there haven't been any "showstoppers" by mid-February, then most of the systems have completed a full monthly cycle in a post-Y2K environment. Certainly they could be importing corrupted data which will grind them down later, but more spread out any Y2K effects, the easier it will be to address them.

Of course, I think your scenario has almost a zero probability.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), September 21, 1999.

I don't know that I qualify as a "usual suspect" but I post here from time to time. If things haven't gotten really bad by the end of March, I'll be very surprised. I'm fairly hopeful about the power grid staying up but I think the banks are going to take a massive, probably fatal, hit from a global investment meltdown caused by Y2K. This should take a month or two to really start to build momentum and we should see the effects in February or March. Combine this with massive business failures and huge glitches in government programs here and abroad, and we're in the deep do-do.

Note: this is not a prediction of any kind; it's simply how I think things will play out.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), September 21, 1999.

I will gladly admit I was wrong at the end of the first quarter 2000. Should I blame my hazard insurance company for their worthless advice over the years (my house didn't burn down)? I always thought decisions regarding various risks were MY responsibility.....

-- DaveW (dwood@southwind.net), September 21, 1999.

The Engineer,

I'll answer your question, if you'll answer mine.

I pretty much agree with Dog Gone. If there's no show stoppers by Mid Feb, and if there's only a couple of isolated show stoppers by July, I'll be willing to say my fears were mostly unfounded.

Now, my question: How long will you wait before you start eating old shoe leather and drinking grey water, when you find out that you're wrong?

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), September 21, 1999.

One more time...

Interview: Kind on Monitoring Y2K Millennium Bug--ICC Information Coordination Center (USIS Washington File)

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 001PZn


Q: And how long do you plan to operate?

A: From the 28th of December through the millennium until we are confident that any Y2K-related disruptions have stabilized.


Q: Are you expecting serious problems on January 1, 2000?

A: I don't think anyone really knows what's going to happen. If someone tells you what will happen with certainty, then they aren't credible. The reason we're doing the things that we are is that there is a potential here. We think we've followed good remediation and testing procedures here in the federal government, and we hope that's been done in other organizations, in industries, in other nations. It's prudent to be prepared. We're prepared to collect the information, assess it and try and recognize the early trends. These could be good as well as bad, and we're hoping they're good.

The essence of the problem is time compression. Multiple sectors could be affected in a short period of time. Normally, when you have a disaster it affects only one organization sector or geographical area. The potential here is for multiple effects. As time goes on, the more work gets done, the more testing gets done, things look better. And we shall continue checking and testing, but it's still appropriate to have the capability to monitor the situation when the time comes and to provide clear reports to decision-makers, the press and citizens throughout the world.


-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), September 21, 1999.

...and let just say that The Engineer is God and he is trolling on our forum.

-- (not@now.com), September 21, 1999.

Some words from John Koskinen on this topic:

http://www.techserver.com/noframes/story/0,2294,75662-119493-847488- 0,00.html

Koskinen, government's top Y2K expert, predicts failures for more than a day

Copyright ) 1999 Nando Media

Copyright ) 1999 Associated Press


WASHINGTON (July 29, 1999 6:14 p.m. EDT http://www.nandotimes.com) - Computer failures related to the Year 2000 technology problem could extend well beyond New Year's Day, President Clinton's top Y2K expert John Koskinen said Thursday.

Although Koskinen predicted a national "sigh of relief" in the early hours of Jan. 1, he also anticipates scattered electronic failures over the first days, weeks and even months of the new year.

Koskinen, chairman of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, said in an interview with The Associated Press that some failures may not become obvious until the end of January, the first time after the date rollover that consumers review their monthly bank statements, credit-card bills and other financial paperwork.

"It won't evaporate until after that," Koskinen said. "Clearly, this is more than a January 1 problem." But he also slightly hedged his predictions: "None of us are really going to know until after January 1."

Unless repaired, some computers originally programmed to recognize only the last two digits of a year will not work properly beginning in 2000, when those machines will assume it is 1900.

Some computer systems may shut down quickly with obvious failures, and others may gradually experience subtle problems or degraded performance that may take weeks to notice.

"The more difficult problem will be where the system looks like it's doing it correctly but it's doing it all wrong," Koskinen said.

Some failures won't be recognized until the work week starts Jan. 3, as employees return to their offices and turn on their computers for the first time.

Repaired computers also will need to recognize 2000 as a leap year, even though most years ending in "00" don't need to adjust for Feb. 29, he said.

A new $40 million Information Coordination Center being organized down the street from the White House will operate until March, sharing information about failures with states, federal agencies, corporations and foreign governments.

[snip to end]

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), September 21, 1999.

If things are improving by Mid-March, I'm actually committed to taking any sort of humiliation from the penultimate Polly himself, CPR.

He, on the other hand, must figure out a way to get to Temple, TX and make a rice & bean meal over sterno at a roadside truckstop. (Waco's actually closer to halfway, but...) Oh! hey! and you can come, too, Anita.

Once again, I want a BITR. I need a BITR.


-- lisa (lisa@work.now), September 21, 1999.

No, he's most decidedly not trolling.

But then, his portion of the power grid is actually the one I'd rather be living under, more than anywhere else in the U.S.


Perhaps, I'd feel more pollyish too, if I lived in the land of falling water and cascading streams.


-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), September 21, 1999.

* * * 19990921 Tuesday

This is Polly-Troll baiting tripe post--I know!... I'll be brief, anyway...

"The Engineer":

There'll be no escaping "misleading" Y2K statements from corporate- statists. In a U.S. stock market decline, there will never be reasons for any companies/municipalities in telecommunications, electrical power, water treatment, or financial industries to lose "confidence" of investors. I base this conclusion on the current U.S. standard of living ( i.e., customary telecomm, electric, financial, etc. in the present economy ). Even during the Great Depression there was demand for all infrastructure services!

However, if the any corner of the "Iron Triangle" infrastructure "breaks"--becomes non-functional--it will be self-evident where the shame belongs. A stock market collapse does not cause any segment of the infrastructure to become unable to deliver the "goods."

IMHO, the answer to your lame, baited question is:

October 1999 will be _the_ critical month! When small businesses see applications unable to project beyond 3 months ( into 2000 ), the failures will generate "awareness," propelling societies into the realm of unavoidable and irreversible public "Y2K Panic."

Basic Y2K assumptions are not incorrect!

* The code is broken and cannot be fixed before Y2K.

* There is sufficient Y2K PR spun denial to keep the sheep asleep.

* There are countless examples of failed/failing systems.

There will be no doubt that more systems failures will be observed and noted in horror by employees in the bowels of corporate-statist enterprises--GLOBALLY.

The only unknown will be the trajectory societies will choose to deal with and remedy the situation. All options will be open! Rebuilding upon, and/or preserving, vestiges of a proven failed socio-technology infrastructure should not be an option.

Regards, Bob Mangus

* * *

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus1@yahoo.com), September 21, 1999.

Howdy Engineer....Normally I dont repley to ploy questions, but it just so happens tomorrow I need to tell this fellow up in N.H. how long I will need his wonderful summer home for this winter. Im taking it from Dec 1 to June 1. Lots of beautiful streams and lakes, backup woodstove, and lots of pest-key deer. Little does he know I plan to be there for more then a year. However if this is a fart in the wind ( as Flint puts it ) I will come back and play the game June 2...just for the record w/ a 1000hrs of Y2K study I sold everything for cash last year...so I guess Im committied...good luck...---...

-- Les (yoyo@tolate.com), September 21, 1999.

I agree with Dave W. Certainly if Q1 of 2000 has no real showstoppers, I think it is safe to say that the Y2K problem pretty much was a lot tamer than most of us doomers would have thought. For which we would all be very happy about.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), September 21, 1999.

Bokonon, If Im wrong itll be pretty obvious, wont it?

Diane, Sorry you wandered off topic. Im not looking for any justification of what you believe. Im really not interested in a debate or trying to get you to change your mind. Just(if you are wrong) when will it be clear to you.

not, You better hope not.

Linkmeister, Im interested in your opinion, not Koskinens. He's a politician. They never admit they are wrong.

Bob, OK your are down for October 1999. So if it doesnt happen as you say we will expect a post from you in November?

Les, Good luck to you too. Even if you are wrong its nice country. You can get in some good skiing. It's not a bad way to spend the winter, Y2K or no Y2K.

-- The Engineer (The Engineer@tech.com), September 21, 1999.

A lie by any other name smells as bad. More than any computernoid speak about how remediation requires impossible overhauls, more than banks disappearing because of panic, more than terrorists, the simple fact that everyone in govt is lying through their collective teeth is more than enough reason to git reeady!!!


-- owl (new@new.com), September 21, 1999.

I expect problems to accumulate from January on.

If no serious effects are seen by July 1, 2000, I will be completely convinced that we made it ok.

A recession does not count as a serious event, as I see it.

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), September 21, 1999.

I will lighten up on the white knuckles within a week. I will start looking to average back into the market in spring (as long as the fundamentals look ok and the bubble has been deflated a bit), and I will disassemble and donate to charity the part of my stash which is truly excess sometime in June maybe. To answer your question, I think within a couple of weeks I'll have a good sense of where we are and where we might be headed. I must add that in the event of a BITR, I will require some mental tuneup to try to figure out how I got this one so wrong with so much effort to understand it. I also concur with others when they say that they will never look at the world quite the same. The silver lining of y2k that I didnt see coming was the education in politics, global affairs, computer networks, economics, the shady gold market (thanks Andy), and, most of all, human nature (including my own).

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), September 21, 1999.

Jon--A recession is a serious problem if you are out of work. I once heard this saying "A recession is when your neighbor is out of work, a depression is when you are out of work."

-- quoter (quoter@quoterrr.com), September 21, 1999.

By 9/1/2000 if nothing shows, and everything seems hunky dory, I will let my guard down...

Now, back to your train with you...


The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), September 21, 1999.


I'll relax *somewhat* if no major global showstoppers by January 15th, 2000.

But for the global economic repercussions to "ripple..." well... perhaps by June, 2000... we'll see.


-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), September 21, 1999.


I think you're missing a fine point here. Many of us have made changes to our lifestyle that we won't abandon whatever Y2K has to offer. I moved from town to my country house, and will never go back. My cistern will continue to water my organic garden, and the new big pantry will still contain extra supplies. We're eating our preps now, and replacing them as we go. I just bought two scooters and a lilttle diesel pickup. I don't need them, but I kinda like 'em anyway. (great fun)

But to answer your question, maybe a week after New Years I'll relax a little. Maybe by early next summer, if people are not eating their pets, and I have not lost half my customer base (small businesses), I'll get the old bus out of the barn fill it with cheap gas, and take a long trip. I know of at least a couple of Pollies who will want me to stop by and kiss their butts on the Courthouse steps, and I should be most obliged to accomodate them!

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), September 21, 1999.

If it is a non-event (infrastructure and economics) at the end of Q1, I would assume that serious risks to life and happiness are past. By end of Q2 and if we can all laugh at the fizzle, I'd be much relieved. That's not to say that my life isn't forever changed or that it was not prudent to prepare for Y2K as I did and recommended. As I have wrote elsewhere: prudence requires only that the action was best in the given circumstances. And the circumstances today dictate that preparation is a prudent course of action.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), September 21, 1999.

"Relaxation" dates:

Infrastructure: Feb 1st, 2000

Economic: July 1st, 2000

(Then I can think about that boat I've been wanting...)


-- Dennis (djolson@pressenter.com), September 21, 1999.

Great thread. I will be thrilled to post here New Year's weekend to say that the lights are on and the water's clean. This doomer hopes she's wrong, but ready just the same. I think I got to give it until at least Spring to see the global effects.

Something above caught my eye: the circumstances today dictate that preparation is a prudent course of action. Surprising that Stan would mention preps.

And I, too, will be happy to kiss the Polly's asses if Y2K is a no-show. In fact I will be thrilled.

-- semper paratus (almost@always.ready), September 21, 1999.

(And I cant help but wonder if you will blame it on Government or Companies for misleading you or will you blame it on the Y2K gurus?)

I wouldn't worry about what we little forum posters will feel if Y2K turns out to be nothing. Worry about those company CEO's and government agency heads who were tricked into spending millions and billions of bucks on this hoax. How 'bout the fools that spent $40 million on that new gov't bunker/communications center? Those whacko National Guard troops wasting their time practicing Urban Warfare so they could deal with disruptions. The Airlines that have cancelled flights on the busiest weekend of the year. The Coast Guard that turned away non-compliant ships away - and the ships so turned. All of that money and effort that could have been better spent on something much more profitable.

And since you obviously know the truth.. but didn't tell.. they are going to be *pissed* at YOU Engineer. Better watch out.

If I'm wrong? Just be eat'n my stash.. mostly bought 2 for 1. Saved a bundle whatever happens.

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), September 21, 1999.

When I'll relax.. end of first quarter probably. But as someone else said.. some changes are permanent. (happily so)

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), September 21, 1999.


Maybe I'm just feeling cynical today, but I suspect that starting next month, we'll see a progressive redefinition of y2k. Let's call this the doomie progression.

If 4Q99 doesn't bring bank runs or other clear evidence of public panic, of course this will be due to the success of the government/media/illuminati PR campaign, plus the fact that 'they' are keeping all of the one-quarter and shorter lookaheads secret.

After rollover, almost anything that goes wrong will be attributed to y2k, whether y2k is a contributor or not. Hell, already this forum is filling up with notices of earthquakes, and date bugs have nothing to do with those.

Remember when UPS went on strike, how that was used as 'evidence' of interconnectedness, considering all the bankruptcies during that strike. When it was pointed out that the bankruptcy rate during that 6-week period was well within the NORMAL range, did any of the domino- theory people recant? Hell no, they just dropped the subject.

Look at all the explosions people are posting about now. We don't know of a single one that was y2k related in any way, and nearly all of them have been analyzed totally and y2k wasn't involved. Yet next year, explosions of this same type will be attributed to y2k on principle.

And I've written before about trying to extract any y2k influence from a normal market downturn. You do your best to discount this, but you can rest assured that if the market indeed turns downward, y2k will be held responsible. Similarly, we have some people without power somewhere almost all the time -- the system is nowhere near perfect. Next year, every one of these normal events will be blamed on y2k.

I've said it before and I'll say it again -- pick ANY year in the last several decades. Look up EVERY problem of any kind that happened that year, and list them all. Damn long list, guaranteed! Proof Positive of how bad y2k was, had y2k happened January 1 of whatever year you chose! By July 1 of ANY randomly selected year, any of these doomies would have been saying See? I told you so!

I fully expect that y2k will indeed cause more than the normal share of difficulties that falls within any typical year. And if I had to choose between admitting error and pointing to a high level of background noise, I'd point with both hands.

(And by the way, I'll admit I'm wrong if y2k is clearly the culprit for any real difficulties starting last year or before. If there's any bank runs at all, then I'm wrong, since I predict they won't happen. EVEN IF these runs are unjustified because banking software is just fine, I'll still admit error.)

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), September 21, 1999.

(And by the way, I'll admit I'm wrong if y2k is clearly the culprit for any real difficulties starting last year or before. If there's any bank runs at all, then I'm wrong, since I predict they won't happen. EVEN IF these runs are unjustified because banking software is just fine, I'll still admit error.)

Ahhhh.... THANKS!

After the G8 and Cabinet Cheerleading sessions I was a little down. But this gives me hope for the future... sort of.

But another question.

The doomers have all said when they will be able to relax and go back to life as usual... or life as improved by preps made for Y2K. But when are pollies going to be able to relax? They NEVER thought it would be a problem, yet they devoted endless hours to it just like the doomers. So if they are willing to devote all that time and talent to a problem that doesn't exist, can there ever be relaxation? Because surely there will always be problems that don't exist. So much to do. So little time.

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), September 21, 1999.

If no huge problems arise by Jan. 3, I will be very happy. If, by mid- March we avert supply chain issues, I will call it quits with Y2K obesssion and get a life.

-- coprolith (coprolith@rocketship.com), September 21, 1999.

To Flint:

This isn't about who is right or wrong, its about who might live and who might die. If us "doomers" are right we might have saved some lives, but if the pollies are wrong people will die. Being an optimist all my life and STILL one I will gladly wear the title "doomer" if by my actions I save one single life.

If people aren't dying anytime next year due to Y2K I will gladly stand up and admit I was wrong and be VERY happy to do so.

-- Stacia (ClassyCwgl@aol.com), September 21, 1999.

Let ne invert the question?

How people must suffer needlessly before you aknowledge you should have been trying to train them and teach how to act more conservatively in their habits and preconceived notions?

When will you aknowledge that the threat was real?

What level of problems and disruptions would be needed to show you that the federal government was (as usual under the Clintons) hiding, lying, and denying the truth in search of better ratings and an immediate "feel-good" boost in their polls?

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), September 21, 1999.

Out driving just now I had another thought. All us "doomers" (well, maybe an exception or two, eh, PM?) say we would be very VERY happy to be wrong about our expectations for Y2K. And that goes for me too. I certainly don't WANT to be right about the kinds of disruptions I think I see ahead.


If we sail through rollover with no more than the usual glitches and inconveniences, I will really have to do some SERIOUS soul searching about my sanity, my "mother's intuition", my gut level feel of truth and lies, and my opinion of my native intelligence.

I figure I have spent a couple of hours a day (often more) over about the last 2.5 years researching this topic. I'm not a geek, and even those hours cannot turn me into a computer expert.. and of course this is at core a computer problem. But that is darn close to a whole years worth of 40-hour work weeks spent reading an amazing variety of material on this subject. Long boring Senate testimony and GAO reports, programers views, 10-Q reports, IEE & IEEE reports, state White papers, industry reports, and endless PR happyfaced reports. I've attended local meetings and talked to local utilities and businesses. And I've read on this and other forums a few tons of opinions on every new tidbit of news.

If it turns out that the pollies were right, I will be extremely happy that no one has to suffer.

But right after the celebration could you please reserve me a padded room at the nearest insane asylum, because if I could be totally wrong about something I have researched so thoroughly I don't think I could trust myself to know when it is safe to cross the street.

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), September 21, 1999.

He's probably a shill, Robert; don't waste your valuable time on him. If he's not a shill, and is an honest man, then he cannot have read TB2000, M. Bug, Sorokin, and >60 hours on Gary North's site (or the equivalent). Without that, people are generally not entitled to an opinion on the subject. It would be like listening to third-graders argue politics; there would be lots of opinions, little knowledge, and even less useful insight into the situation.


-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), September 21, 1999.


If Y2K is a non-event, you don't need a reservation for a padded cell, silly. I know what you mean, but I think that you might look at it differently. You might think of your time studying Y2K as an advanced degree in modern society. Your conclusions could be a bit off for who knows what reasons (and that happens in academics all the time), but whatever happens... you come away with new and profound understanding of this society and what the risks are to those in it (including yourself). If it is a non-event, you can make conscious decisions about what kind of risks are acceptable to you, decisions about what kinds of technology you want in your life, and decisions about the level of dependence on technology you think is fair and reasonable. In a very real way, you have a new found freedom. Spread your wings!

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), September 21, 1999.

Actually MinnesotaSmith,

I rather think Engineer is a "company man." Wonder what his private thoughts are?


-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), September 21, 1999.

Hey just what the hell kinda "engineer" are you anyway, a janitorial engineer? Good, cause you're gonna be busy next year cleanin up all the crap. Aren't you the same dimwit that tried to tell me that a major metropolitan airport has a power outage every day?

-- @ (@@@.@), September 21, 1999.

I rather think that anyone who speaks from direct personal experience is a company man, in the sense that they work for a relevant company. This includes Sysman as well as Engineer. We all tend to generalize based on how our own efforts are coming, that we're familiar with from day to day hands-on knowledge.

I rather think Diane speaks from her experience reading and citing those who draw their conclusions from reading what Diane writes, kind of a cloud of people up in the clouds. Sysman and Engineer generalize from their own particulars. Diane generalizes from her own generalities.

Like, she knows where she comes from, but how about all you zombies?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), September 21, 1999.


Time to swap out that nicotine patch again.


-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), September 21, 1999.

Linda: Look at it this way. If we make it to 1Q00 and nothing major has happened, that will be absolute proof that God exists because a miracle will indeed have occurred.

Flint: The only "progression" I see happening is with the pollies. You are becoming more ornery and Mr. Decker is becoming more homey. (He's signing his name "Ken" now - can "Red" be far behind?)

-- a (a@a.a), September 21, 1999.


So you admit you can't see Milne's progression either. I'm stunned at this unexpected ability to think for yourself, but you've gone up several notches in my estimation nonethelesss.


I'm not using, and haven't been using, any quitting aids. Just cold turkey. I agree it makes my comments more direct and less roundabout than they used to be. But I've read a great deal of admiration from *many* posters here of someone who speaks his mind straight out. You are one of those. Have you decided that molly-coddling is now better?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), September 21, 1999.


-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), September 21, 1999.

LOL Nikoli!

Yeah, I think he drives one of those little trains for 3 year-olds!

-- @ (@@@.@), September 21, 1999.

I think the first quarter of next year is a good date by which to know whether or not there will be serious problems. If not? Nothing much changes becasue we haven't bought anything or done anything extraordinary. I shall draw down our supplies some, perhaps to the three-month level, but I shall always keep a stash on hand. We shall hang on to our solar panels too--I like the free electricity, and it's not going to get any cheaper--and I think we'll keep adding to them.

If nothing happens, I was going to draw down the water to zero but after what Floyd did to the drinking water just east of us, I think I shall always keep a month's supply on hand, more if I can find a suitable place to store it.

Nobody to blame but myself for anything, but this isn't about blame. For me it's about being prepared, Y2K or not. Y2K was just a catalyst. I've had a few bouts with illness and injury this year and it has been sheer luxury to reach into the stash and pull out a convenient and tasty meal--bliss not to have to cook from scratch when I feel lousy. It was also bliss to have lights, TV, scanner, radio and fans when Floyd took out our electricity for a short while.

I feel more secure now than I ever have--ready for just about anything! (Even a fire--I finally bought another fire extinguisher after putting it off for years.)

BTW, I'm not assuming things will go wrong. I'm assuming there's a somewhat better chance for Y2K problems than there is of my house catching on fire--and I DID buy that second extinguisher.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), September 21, 1999.

Engineers don't know shit about software problems.

-- The Programmer (The Programmer@code.com), September 21, 1999.

'a' said

"Look at it this way. If we make it to 1Q00 and nothing major has happened, that will be absolute proof that God exists because a miracle will indeed have occurred."

This is going in the vault. I'm an agnostic, but will be delighted to remind you of God's existence come 1 April 2000, should the opportunity present itself.

-- Johnny Canuck (j_canuck@hotmail.com), September 22, 1999.

As I have said a few times before, I REALLY HOPE to have a Fourth of July party, wherein I (and a few choice friends) get to use my Millenium Mill for target practice, and then we can use the resultant kindling for the fire on which we do our cooking, of ribs, burger, sausage, etc. that we have purchased just that morning.

I, however much more expect to have to USE the mill for the bread that I will eat that morning.

Alternatively, when I bottle my 2000 meade, if I have NOT needed the preps in the basement, I will hold the celebration.


-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), September 22, 1999.

Flint, PLEASE go buy some nicotine patches...


The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), September 22, 1999.

I'll donate most of my food stash by Apr. 1, 2000, if everything's survivable.

Who would I blame? No one. That would be as pointless as trying to lay blame on individual cows in a cattle stampede.

-- Tim the Y2K nut (tmiley@yakko.cs.wmich.edu), September 22, 1999.

There have been quite a few posts since I last checked:

Owl, Is everyone in government lying all the time or only when they give good news? And by the way you didnt answer the question.

Jon and Dave Thank you. Quoter, Good point but that is true Y2K or no Y2K.

The Dog and Diane, That long and that short? Interesting spread of time, and thanks. And Company man. Not quite. LOL at that!

Lou and Stan, Thanks. It seems youve both decided to make some changes permanent, no matter what happens.

Dennis, Hope you have happy sailing.

semper, Kissing is optional, thanks for the info.

Linda, Im not saying the money was spent in vain, i.e. there arent and never were any problems. I was just inquiring as to the date by which you would feel that you could relax and get on with your life.

Flint, You are a man after my own heart. I have to confess I wonder if there is a bad ice storm next January some people (note please I said some, not all) will call it a Y2K cover up. Part of the problem of course is that now people are concentrating on these things where before they skipped over them and went right to the sports page.

Linda, No. I cant speak for all the Pollies. Some may have never considered it a problem. I think most of us considered it a solvable problem. I did think it might be a (very big) problem several years ago. However the more I looked into it (particularly in my own field) the more I came to realize that a lot that was written about it, especially in popular books and on a number of web sites was wrong. People were making incorrect assumptions on the way things worked and on how much was automated, etc. A lot of statements taken as fact were absolute nonsense. If your initial parameters and assumptions are faulty they lead you to incorrect results.

coprolith. Thanks

Robert, I notice you didnt answer the question. Ill answer yours after you answer mine.

Minnesota, Actually I have spent a lot of time reading some (not all) of the things you mentioned. I even corresponded a bit with Dr. North. One of the things that made me a skeptic about all of this was the lack of knowledge (and incorrect assumptions) in what is posted on his site. See my reply to Linda. Note that you didnt answer the question.

@, No, I tried to tell you that there are power outages in the US every day. Airports have them from time to time. Newark Airport had one a number of months ago due to a contractor digging up a cable. See Flints post above. If I drove trains for three year olds Im sure youd be a passenger, in the caboose. And you didnt answer the question.

a, First Quarter? Thanks.

Nikoli, I guess you ran out of steam before you could answer the question.

Old Git, Thanks. And again this isnt about preparing or not preparing. Im not making any judgement call though I will say I think it is/ was silly to worry (specifically) about Y2K and not worry about other things. The way I look at it, it makes no sense to live in CA and worry about Y2K but not worry about earthquakes. And if you are prepared for the one you should be prepared for the other. I hope you keep one of the fire extinguishers in the kitchen. Thats where most fires start, and thats where I have mine.

The Programmer, Software engineers do. By the way, what do you know about engineering?

Chuck, Nothing wrong with homemade bread, Y2K or no Y2K. Maybe youll like it better than store brought.

Tim, Thanks.

-- The Engineer (The Engineer@tech.com), September 22, 1999.


Shucks, I'll just go ahead and admit (not for the first time) that most of my predictions for Y2k-related happenings in 1998 and 1999 have turned out to be wrong.

I had predicted that last year's stock market dip would be worse and longer than it turned out to be. Upon later reflection, I realized that I had not taken certain important factors into account. So I no longer make stock market predictions.

Early last year I made a number of predictions about indicators of Y2k awareness and preparations among the general population. Only a couple of them could be said to have been close to what actually happened. So now I don't try to predict such things.

Now I'm just making my own preparations, watching what happens, and contributing what I can when I can. Neither a polly nor a doomer be.

-- No Spam Please (nos_pam_please@hotmail.com), September 23, 1999.

No Spam: ditto. I'm just a spectator now. I'm finishing up the last of the financial preps which will assure comfort and/or prosperity whether it's a BITR or catastrophe.

It's a nice feeling... done sandbagging, just watching the tides roll in........

Fun watching the pollies begin to itch, though.......

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), September 23, 1999.

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