I'm wondering if the state GOP is starting to sweat their decision to back I-695. Two new polls this week are making it look like 695 is going to face an uphill battle to November.

http://www.seattletimes.com/news/local/html98/init_19990921.html

An Elway poll (Stewart, not the former QB) shows just 52% support for 695, a drop of 7% in one month. A Moore poll done last week shows just 50% support, down from their figure of 58% a month ago. What's more, the Elway poll shows only 40% support from the people most likely to vote.

But by all means, you supporters can sit back and relax, confident in your own minds that this thing is crushing the opposition. That's fine by me. I've only seen one flyer from "Operation Paper Blizzard." The support seems to be SO overwhelming.

-- Patrick (patrick1142@yahoo.com), September 21, 1999

Answers

Actually, if you look at the margin of error (5%) for each poll, there is no real difference between the two polls statistically. It's probably not worth getting too excited about either. Also if you note the bottom line in your citation: Still, Funk acknowledges that even the recent upbeat polls show only about a third of the people plan to vote against I- 695. "We've got a long way to go," he said.

But Patrick, I'll concede your point, it ain't over til it's over. You've motivated me to make another contribution to the pro-695 cause, and to spend more time preaching the gospel of I-695 to the people.

-- Gary Henriksen (henrik@harbornet.com), September 21, 1999.

Well that's true that they aren't significantly different, but only if you look at it in one direction, which means that the "real" number could be somewhere in the mid-50's. But of course the numbers in June and July had it in the high 60's, which certainly is significanly different than the low 50's. Then there is the basic fact of initiative polling that it is much more probable for an "undecided" voter to vote no.

I have no problem with motivating you further. The pro people could use all the help they can get. They're getting beat out in contributions at what, a 10-1 ratio? Besides, there are plenty of other people on this board who seem to be so confident that 695 will pass that I'd be surprised if they even feel it necessary to vote!

-- Patrick (patrick1142@yahoo.com), September 21, 1999.

"Then there is the basic fact of initiative polling that it is much more probable for an "undecided" voter to vote no. " Actually, the most frequent outcome with an undecided voter is for them to not vote at all, especially in an off year election.

-- Gary Henriksen (henrik@harbornet.com), September 21, 1999.

Pat.......

I am glad you brought up the fact that NO I-695 is beating out the contributions with a 10-1 ratio. And if you look at who it thats giving the bucks it should make you wonder why they have such an interest in 695. I am going to go out on a limb here and say that I'll bet their interest is not in the residents of the state of Washington, but more likely in the bottom line of their companies. I just looked at the list of contributors and frankly it scares me to think that the likes of that list be a factor in my everyday life. It looked to me like a list of whos who in the multi million dollar corporations and unions. I, for one, feel those people have controlled me long enough.

-- rons (ron1@televar.com), September 21, 1999.

Oh my God! You posters are missing the obvious!!

The polls were of only, at the most, 500 people in the state! 500 people do not a good poll make!

I want to see polls of 100,000 residents and see that on the news. I read today's article in the Seattle Times and was so disgusted with it that I wrote the writer a letter.

I'm waiting to see another stupid poll result in the Times like: "Gore scores a 60% favor, survey shows", then within the story it only shows they polled 100 people!

I'm so FOR I-695 and I know there are hundreds of thousands out there too!

-- Scott Davis (Scott@remove.aol.com), September 21, 1999.

Take a real web poll!!

Don't stuff the ballot box. Vote only once please.

http://www.alxpoll.com/cgi-bin/poll.cgi?user=145917

-- Sandy D (sandy_d1@yahoo.com), September 21, 1999.

Well Gary, I agree with your statement in this case. Given that I-695 promises to be pretty much THE thing to vote on in November, if you're undecided by that time, you probably won't vote. But that is little comfort to the Yes people.

The polls are showing a fairly weird trend that the "undecided" crowd is growing as we get closer to the election. On top of that, the increase is coming entirely out of the "yes" crowd. Speaking from a tactical point of view, the No campaign has it much easier now. They don't have to try to convince people to vote no on the issue, they just have to make them unsure about it. And you don't need a study to tell you that spreading FUD around is a pretty easy thing to do. Make people doubt their original "yes" impulse, and in this election, they stay home.

I don't think this was mentioned in the Seattle Times article, but the PI had an even darker picture for I-695's success. From the voters "most likely to vote" (those who voted in the last 4 elections), 47% actually oppose 695 to 40% approving it. Not a good sign for an off- year, typically low turn-out, election...

And Scott, we're not missing the obvious. We know a thing or two about statistics. A 500 person random sample is QUITE accurate at the state level. You should take a class or two about statistics BEFORE you complain about them. Ignorance of the science

-- Patrick (patrick1142@yahoo.com), September 21, 1999.

The interesting thing is that it failed to get enough signatures last year, in large part because the opponents said it would lead to other taxes (like an income tax). That lead to the annual approval requirement. Now the opponents are saying that it will re-instate the personal property tax. Given that a half million people signed up to this for a very modest outlay of funds by the organizers, I'd suggest that if it doesn't pass we make the next one like this: 1. License tabs are $30. 2. All other taxes are frozen or returned to their levels on 1 Jan 1999, whichever is less. 3. Personal property taxes on individuals (as opposed to corporations) are eliminated. 4. All future tax rate increases for education, public health, police, and fire services require a 60% majority. Other increases require a two-thirds majority.

If the usual suspects are going to pay ten times as much to fight the initiatives as we pay to propose them, ultimately we'll beat them just like Reagan beat the Evil Empire, he drove them into bankruptcy. As the man says, every dollar they spend on this is a dollar they can't use to buy politicians.

-- Mark Stilson (mark842@hotmail.com), September 22, 1999.