I received this today:

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Hi all........ If you still have ANY investments in mutual funds or stocks, today is the day to get out. Market is plunging. I waited an extra day too long myself after being ready for so long. Japanese yen up over two hundred points against the dollar in a little over an hour's market. Dow Jones down 170 in the futures in an hour and a half.........(cost me 3000 just not ordering YESTERDAY as was my intention........"got busy") Our trade deficit figures were so astronomical that the truth could no longer be swept under the rug. Oh yes, it may rally a little in a day or so as the uninformed are hustled back in "on dips"''', but Nick says that this is it. The beginnng of a huge crash. GOD bless you. Better a day or two or a week early.

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), September 21, 1999

Answers

Since when is 150 point drop (www.cnnfn.com) a "crash"?

-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@Anonymous99.xxx), September 21, 1999.

don't expect the market to crash before the last 2 weeks in december.

why? because i say so.

anything less would be uncivilized

-- Super (slfsl@yahoo.com), September 21, 1999.

Opinions about the stock market are like *ssholes.....everybody has one............

Last summer when the DOW dropped to about 7400 many here were screaming 'Sell NOW, it's plummeting, get out while you can.....'

Of course it is now about 10600 and those that sold then lost big time.

I personally think the market is overvalued and will go down yet.....however this ranting and raving that a crash is imminent is little more than uneducated hype.......if it does drop you feel smug and if it doesn't you keep on saying that it will and you feel smug anyway 'knowing' that only you have this great insight.

What goes up must come down.....spinning wheel......SO WHAT!! It can drop another 3200 points and still be equal to where it was just over a year ago.

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), September 21, 1999.

Too bad your informant didn't include the actual figures for the astronomical trade deficit. I guess I'll have to hunt them down when I have a bit more spare time.

I agree that if the yen/dollar falls to somewhere around 100 under intense pressure from the currency traders, then it will rip the equity (stock) markets loose and set them flapping like a flag in a high wind. At that point, if the Federal Reserve doesn't act to raise rates, the dollar will plunge and take stocks down with it as foreign hot money flees the US to avoid currency risk. But if the Fed does act to raise rates stocks will plunge anyway, as profits will surely weaken.

My guess is that interest rates rise in response to the weakening dollar, but too little and probably too late, so that by Christmas we'll see a shallow stair step of 1/4 point rises trailing out from last July up to December. To the best of my memory, the Fed has not announced more than 1/4 point move under Alan Greenspan since Black Monday in 1987. He loves those little blips.

Today may or may not be a tooth-rattler. But stock traders are all getting the idea that new highs are *not* coming soon and downside risk is increasing rapidly. I'll bet there are a lot of secret bears out there wearing bull's clothing.

Disclaimer: I am not an investment professional or insider. I just like watching the game and trying to figure out where it's going. YMMV.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), September 21, 1999.

Craig,

"Of course it is now about 10600 and those that sold lost big time."

Statement assumes one sold near the bottom and never bought back in. This is an assumption, not a statement of fact.

-- mike (maples@voy.net), September 21, 1999.

A 1% or 2% drop in the indexes does not constitute a crash...

hide and watch...

growlin' at the TV...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), September 21, 1999.

164 points and sliding fast....

-- ha! (laughing@the"rich".com), September 21, 1999.

Even the "experts" have been waiting for the CRASH! Bob Brinker of Moneytalk keeps sounding like a doomer, he has now become a bad news bear.

-- roller coaster (rollercoaster@rollercoasterr.com), September 21, 1999.

Its real quiet on the helpdesk today...usually the phones are going apeshit when the Market is 'cashing its chips.'

-- J.A.F.O. (Morgan Stanley@Dean.Whitter), September 21, 1999.

Gold jumps $5 after the BOE Gold sale and the market goes down.

If this isn't wierd, what is?

-- Brian (imager@home.com), September 21, 1999.

If this isn't weird, what is?
My forum vote for weird today is Hoffmeister's response to Ed Yourdon's open letter to Greenspam. ;-)

I've given up trying to understand what the market is up to. Just sitting it out safely on the sidelines (cashed it in months ago) and watching with fascination as it fluctuates, often for no discernible reason. Still, I don't actually expect a true crash (oops, market correction, not crash) until December, or maybe even January.

-- RUOK (RUOK@yesiam.com), September 21, 1999.

All the "experts" are telling any sucker to buy on the dips and sell high. Whats wrong with that picture???? I am glad to be out of the market.

-- y2k dave (xsdaa111@hotmail.com), September 21, 1999.

Yen and the Euro are up (US dollar down), Dow dropping around 200 points, market halted, I am starting to wonder if Andy is right. This day sounds like the worst case senerio for some. Abrupt changes in critical market areas.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), September 21, 1999.

Brian M.

This one is for you :o)

I sure hate it when something happens to distract me from all the other stuff but this day is looking to be an  interesting one.
 

Trade Deficit, Dow Drag On Dollar

The dollar tumbled to a 10-day low against the euro after the
Commerce Department reported that the U.S. trade gap in July had
yawned to $25.18 billion, topping both market expectations and
June's record deficit of $24.6 billion.

Snip
 

``Japanese officials built up expectations in the market in which
they implied a promise they could not deliver,'' said Marc
Chandler, chief currency strategist at Mellon Bank.

The dollar briefly slid below 104 yen from its 104.62/72 New
York start, then recovered to trade near 104.80, still off nearly two
yen from late Monday levels above 106.

Currency dealers had been closely watching for signs the Bank of
Japan would ease monetary policy in a bid to gain the support of
U.S. and European authorities for joint action to restrain the rising
yen.

Intervention fears had pushed the yen off multi-year highs against
the dollar and euro reached last week amid ongoing optimism
Japan's long-dormant economy was recovering.

But the yen surged anew as intervention fears faded, and dealers
predicted the currency would strengthen further.

``I don't think we've hit the bottom in dollar/yen,'' Chandler said.
``Most people I've talked to are still looking for a test of 100
(yen).''

-- Brian (imager@home.com), September 21, 1999.

Tokyo surges 350 points - Sep. 21, 1999

Tokyo closed more than 2 percent ahead before the central bank surprised the markets by offering little policy response to the yen's recent appreciation.
     The announcement sent the yen up 2 percent against the dollar and pulled back other markets in toward the close of Asian trading.

Snip

With markets expecting the bank of Japan to loosen monetary policy, the benchmark Nikkei 225 index in Tokyo closed up 357.5 points at its session high of 17,932.79, with telecom stocks providing an additional focus.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), September 21, 1999.

Since Andy is more than likely sleeping I will have to step in a continue the market - gold watch :o)

There is no doubt that the market is convulsing.

Gold Closes almost $6 up on the New York spot price.

Oil is down.

Total wierdness.

RUOK

I am going to have to check out Hoff's Greenspan thread.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), September 21, 1999.

Eight times as much demand for gold than supply in regards to the BOE gold sale.

 USAGOLD | Forum

The Bank of England announces that the gold on offer (approximately
25 tonnes or 803,600 ounces) has been allotted in full at a price of
$255.75 per ounce. Details of the result are as follows:

Amount of gold on offer (approx.)____803,600 oz
Amount applied for___________________6,420,400 oz
Times covered_________________________8.0 times
Amount allotted to bidders____________804,000 oz
Allotment price________________________$255.75
Scaling factor at allotment price______58.5353%

All accepted bids which were made at prices above the allotment price
have been allotted in full at the allotment price. Valid bids made at the
allotment price have been allotted an amount of gold equal to the
amount bid for multiplied by the above scaling factor and rounded up
to the nearest 400 ounces.

By close of business in London today, applicants whose bids have
been successful in whole or in part will be notified by the Bank of
England of the exact weight of the gold bars allotted to them and the
amount payable in respect of their purchase. Payment must be made in
US dollars to the Bank of England's account at the Federal Reserve
Bank of New York, no later than 12 noon New York time on 23
September 1999.

The next two H M Government gold auctions are scheduled for
Monday 29 November 1999 and Tuesday 25 January 2000.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), September 21, 1999.

Down 250pts @ 14:30cst. Ouch!

-- CygnusXI (noburnt@toast.net), September 21, 1999.

The Dow's been testing the current trading range of 10,800 - 11,600 for weeks. It settled at the low end in the last few days, then fell through today. Technical bounce later this week, but a new and lower range is most likely. Too much bad news in a historically weak time of year.

Glad I got out months back. Way too volatile at present.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), September 21, 1999.

DOW down 230 pts. @ 3:53 EST; everything down over 2%.

-- sarah (qubr@aol.com), September 21, 1999.

Looks like there maybe more selling tomorrow...

Tuesday September 21, 3:41 pm Eastern Time

Dec S&P futures build losses, fall 32-pt limit

CHICAGO, Sept 21 (Reuters) - December Standard & Poor's 500 index futures added to losses and fell the first 32-point limit in afternoon trade on Tuesday.

The contract fell to 1316.80 and then pared losses slightly.

The initial 2.5 percent downside limit for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange contract is in effect for 10 minutes. If at the end of 10 minutes lead month futures are locked limit down, trading would halt for two minutes and resume with next downside limit down 5 percent or 65 points.

After 1430 CDT/1930 GMT the 2.5 and 5 percent downside limits do not apply, and the first limit is down 10 percent, the exchange said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990921/5a.html

-- Homer Beanfang (Bats@inbellfry.com), September 21, 1999.

Talk about a rock and a hard place

 CBS.MarketWatch.com - Trade gap soars to record $25.2 billion

If the dollar does not stabilize or strengthen, import prices could soar further, causing U.S. inflation to rise. "That would argue for more concern at the Fed about an overheated domestic economy and the prospect of importing some inflation rather than the beneficial deflation of the past two years," said David Orr, chief economist at First Union.

Orr also said the rising trade gap will make it harder politically for Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers to intervene to strengthen the dollar, since a stronger dollar would hurt exporters.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), September 21, 1999.

 On the Current Monetary Policy

September 21, 1999
Bank of Japan

9. In relation to the foreign exchange rate policy, we have heard arguments in favor of non-sterilized intervention. In the reserve market, however, there are various flows of funds such as currency in circulation and Treasury funds other than those resulting from the intervention. The Bank conducts its daily market operations taking into account all the money flows, in order to create ample reserves to such an extent as described above. This strong commitment of fund provision is consistent with the government's current foreign exchange rate policy.

(Monetary policy for the periods ahead)

10. The Bank of Japan has been pursuing an unprecedented accommodative monetary policy and is explicitly committed to continue this policy until deflationary concerns subside. The Bank views the current state of the Japanese economy as having stopped deteriorating with some bright signs, though a clear and sustainable recovery of private demand has yet to be seen. In pursuing the zero interest rate policy, we need to carefully examine its adverse side-effects, but deem it important to support the economic recovery by continuing easy monetary policy for the periods ahead.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), September 21, 1999.

Hi, Pastor Brown:

I'm the only one at the factory who has been warning that the stock market will crash this year. The other coworkers all scoff, except for two GIs, (the only GIs I know personally).

I have been anticipating a drastic plunge this month, but I most certainly wish the crash would happen next year, since I'm not totally prepared like you are.

Y2K or no Y2K, Wall Street will crash big time. I think the warning of Y2K being the cause of the crash is a red herring, which might cause investors to wait "until it blows over -- then it will rise again eventually". But the crash BEFORE Y2K will surprise them.

The more I study the banking system and monetary debt, the more convinced I become that the BIG crash is very close.

Please recall that David Wilkerson has been warning this year that Americans have been experiencing a temporary stock boom. It will not last.

Every mania has its disasterous collapse.

I must always remember that God Almighty is in control. His judgments are increasing.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), September 21, 1999.

Who is Nick, and where are his comments?

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), September 21, 1999.