Why the "No on 695" campaign will fail.

greenspun.com : LUSENET : I-695 Thirty Dollar License Tab Initiative : One Thread

By now, I'm sure that many of you have heard the commercials from the "No" campaign. Well, I've heard them as well, and they won't work.

Here is how I see it.

Mistake No. 1.

The anti-folks made a serious strategic mistake assuming that they could run a Paul Allen "Stadium Gambit" campaign; dump a lot of money at the last minute into a "No" effort and pull this off. The ONLY chance the "No" side had was two-fold:

a. They needed to start a "No" campaign immediately when it became clear that Tim, et.al., was going to be able to get the signatures they needed. By failing to act, Tim had a clear field and, relatively speaking, he dominated the communications channels to the most motivated segment of the voting population today. Tim framed the debate, and predicted both the media response (they are, after all, very predictable) and the response of the various levels of government and bureaucracy. Both sectors have obligingly behaved precisely as Tim had said they would, thus, further providing him with credibility that they lack. He has maneuvered them into playing catch-up from the beginning, and they have been more then happy to play along.

b. They have failed to offer any alternative. The small number of groups that make up the main opposition have the ear of our governor; they could have, and, most assuredly should have, pressed the governor into requesting a special session to address the issue.

John Carlson described the issue by pointing out that the choice of the governor (who has been strangely quiet on this issue lately) was to land the plane with the wheels up, or fly it directly into the ground.

By failing to develop a plan... by failing to call a special session to address these issues, those who believe that the MVET is the height of absurdity and that taxes are spiraling out of control have no real choice but to vote for 695. They have nowhere else to turn... because this group in opposition have turned away from dealing with the cause of the unrest (government) to, instead, blaming the people who control it... they are asking the voters to accept an unacceptable status quo.

No amount of money... no number of speeches or commercials... no spokesmen/women for businesses that have a vested interest in keeping the high level of tax revenue flowing will be able to impact what is becoming increasingly more likely.

Mistake No.2.

The opposition has done nothing to present empathy with the taxpayers of this state. Every word they say has to do with what government will lose... While they say nothing about what we pay... or what we'll keep. The incessant drum beat of "DOT will lose this; local government will lose that," etc, completely misses the point. The issue is NOT what GOVERNMENT will lose. It is, instead, about what the people will be able to avoid paying in taxes.

They, instead, infer that we are here to serve them. And "them," in this instance, is the combination of government and their respective lackeys; both union and business who continue to express concerns over their enlightened self-interest far to the exclusion of the interests of the bill-payers.

Mistake No. 3.

In taking the "Allen Gambit," they have failed to understand that voters, who are the primary stake-holders in government, have no stake in paying more and higher taxes. We have no emotional ties to an ever-bigger government, whose primary mission seems to be self-perpetuation above all.

The fact is that an add campaign that effectively tells us: "Gee, we know this tax sucks, and that you want to reduce your tax burden; but that's too bad; we know what's good for you, and you'll just have to take our word for it," is going nowhere.

What it boils down to is that when we are punching the holes in the cardboard, we'll all be asking ourselves this question:

"Do I support an initiative that will literally keep thousands of dollars in my pocket over the years and give me some say on tax increases? Or do I support a position that wants to keep that privilege for themselves?"

Regardless of one's position on this issue, the "No" side has done, effectively, nothing to address this issue, and are, as a result, doomed to failure.

The governor's failure to act; the last minute, all eggs in one basket campaign approach; the decision to portray 695 supporters as being stupid, uninformed and unable to comprehend; the continued idea that kicking the current dead horse is the way to go... all have worked in harmony to assure passage of this initiative.

-- Jim Westin

Only the finest in rechromed ASCII.



-- Westin (jimwestin@netscape.net), September 19, 1999

Answers

Another factor to consider- By failing to come up with an alternative the opponents have essentially made this a litmus test. Even those who initially had doubts about the initiative (John Carlson comes to mind) now are faced with two alternatives. They can support I-695, even if it has some warts that they don't believe are needed or advisable, or they can oppose it, knowing that if it loses, the loss will be seen as a green light for MORE taxes, More big government, etc. The lack of a more moderate alternative by the opposition has in effect, " burned the bridges" behind the Republican moderates who otherwise would have felt compelled to vote "Democrat lite." This was a serious strategic blunder, IMHO, in the hope that they could form a tactical coalition with the Republican Moderate (AKA, big business) establishment. Ultimately the Big Business Republicans couldn't hold the grass roots. It isn't over yet, but with 85% of the Republican support, it's looking more and more like it'll pass.

-- Gary Henriksen (henrik@harbornet.com), September 20, 1999.

"They needed to start a "No" campaign immediately when it became clear that Tim, et.al., was going to be able to get the signatures they needed."

In other words, their arrogance will be their downfall.

-- Joe Hylkema (josephhy@wsu.edu), September 27, 1999.


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