The debate begins over the Floyd evacuation

By Jim Loney

MIAMI, Sept 17 (Reuters) - It may not have been the storm of the century, but Hurricane Floyd sparked arguably the panic of the century as Americans fled the powerful and capricious storm.

One British newspaper columnist called the unprecedented flight "one of the dafter exercises in which the U.S. has indulged."

At the peak of Floyd's agonizing trek up the East Coast, emergency managers ordered more than three million people from their homes, said to be the largest peacetime evacuation in U.S. history.

Regrets?

"Not a bit. It was the right thing to do. It was the best thing to do," said Michael Loehr, operations officer for the Florida Division of Emergency Management.

Unlike the Orson Welles-directed 1938 War of the Worlds panic in one sense -- no one actually saw the menacing Martians while fearsome Floyd was clearly visible thanks to modern technology -- Floyd disrupted millions of lives along a thousand-mile-plus stretch of the U.S. Eastern seaboard.

Yet for hundreds of thousands of them, it was the hurricane that never showed, or fizzled into rain squalls and brisk breezes.

Even President Clinton, who cut short a south Pacific trip because of Floyd, found himself defending the evacuations when the storm failed to crush Florida and then weakened as it swept into North Carolina.

"There may be some people who question...whether we did the right thing to recommend all the evacuations," Clinton said. "But now that we have this technology at the National Weather Center, we have to act on it."

One view from afar took a different tone.

"In evacuating 1 percent of its population, the most powerful nation in the world has demonstrated an astonishing ability to mobilize its people, even in a near-pointless cause," London Times columnist Bronwyn Maddox wrote.

Floyd's menacing march was a tricky one for disaster officials. One of the most powerful storms in recent memory, it smacked the Bahamas with 150-mph winds and for a long time was aimed straight at the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach area, a region of nearly five million people.

Forecasters and emergency planners say powerful technology -- including satellite imaging and hurricane hunter planes -- allows us to see hurricanes with a vision that saves lives.

As proof, the ten deadliest storms in the United States this century occurred before 1957. The worst was a 1900 storm that hit the Galveston, Texas, area, killing more than 8,000.

Recent hurricanes, although the most destructive in history because more buildings are in the way, have claimed relatively few lives. About 40 people died in Hurricane Andrew, the costliest in U.S. history with damage of $26.5 billion.

Evacuations in big cities can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars per mile of coastline.

In Florida, more than 1.2 million people were told to flee, causing huge traffic jams on highways leading inland. They returned a day later to homes untouched by Floyd, which stayed far enough offshore to cause a heavy surf but not much more.

In greater Miami alone, nearly 300,000 people were ordered off barrier islands and out of beach towns when Floyd was trampling the Bahamas. Yet a sudden, last-minute turn left Miami twisting in a refreshing breeze.

But Miamians heeded the call. Many have harrowing memories of Hurricane Andrew in 1992, when thousands who stayed home during that storm crouched for hours in bathrooms and closets as its 175-mph wind gusts tore their houses apart around them.

"The people that are familiar with hurricanes realize the importance of evacuations," Miami-Dade Fire spokesman Luis Fernandez said. "It's those who have never been through it that feel they have been told to move too soon."

A Miami rumor control hotline gets grumbling calls from evacuees, Fernandez said. "There are those who call and say, 'I don't think I'm going to do this again, nothing happened.'"

Disaster planners fear the 'cry wolf' syndrome. Evacuations are rough on people -- putting up shutters, packing up kids, clothes and pets. If people evacuate too often for no reason, officials fear that maybe they will not move the one time they really need to.

But U.S. storm warnings and disaster planning works, officials said. In recent hurricanes, the greatest loss of life has occurred in countries with poor construction and without efficient communication and evacuation plans. Witness Hurricane Georges in 1998. It killed hundreds in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, where residents complained they had little warning, and few in Cuba and the United States, where coast dwellers were efficiently moved inland.

"We never feel like we're wasting people's time," Fernandez said. "We see those images. We see what happens in other countries. "That's what allows reality to sink in."

National Hurricane Center specialist Ed Rappaport said the NHC forecast on Floyd's approach to the Miami coast was perfect this time, where often they are slightly off.

"If it had been wrong and Floyd had moved ashore in south Florida, would there be such questions about the necessity of evacuations?" he said.

======================================== End

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), September 17, 1999

Answers

" and few in Cuba and the United States, where coast dwellers were efficiently moved inland. " why does it bother me that we are in the same group as a totalitarian despotic-communist regime? It kinda makes my skin crawl...

-- Billy-Boy (Rakkasn@Yahoo.com), September 17, 1999.

"In evacuating 1 percent of its population, the most powerful nation in the world has demonstrated an astonishing ability to mobilize its people, even in a near-pointless cause," London Times columnist Bronwyn Maddox wrote.

I wonder if this idiot would sound as smug after hiding in the closet during a storm as intense as Floyd was on Tuesday afternoon.

-- Uncle Deedah (unkeed@yahoo.com), September 17, 1999.

Evacuating was the right thing to do. Not sure if there is a 'right' way to evacuate 2-3 million people at one time.

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), September 17, 1999.

'"In evacuating 1 percent of its population, the most powerful nation in the world has demonstrated an astonishing ability to mobilize its people, even in a near-pointless cause," London Times columnist Bronwyn Maddox wrote. '

They don't get hurricanes in England, do they. Perhaps if they had managed to hold on to some of the British Empire there would still be parts of their country that is regularly threatened by them and they would be speaking from experience.

Much as I hate to say it, I agree with Clinton on this. (Watch out for flying pigs)

Keep your...

-- eyes_open (best@wishes.net), September 17, 1999.

Considering the opossible downside, a precautionary evacuation was a reasonable action. I'm not sure I would have declared the states of Florida and Georgia disaster areas before Floyd made landfall, though.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), September 17, 1999.

Hey, isn't this just a picture of our preparations for Y2K? "Prepare for the worst, but hope for the best." Fortunately for the people in the southeast, the hurricane settled down to a dull roar, and the people could return home safely. But what if the hurricane hadn't turned? In that case, the complainers would be lined up right now to kiss the feet of those who ordered the evacuation. Stop complaining, give thanks to God for changing the situation, and use this as a lesson in preparation.

-- Ann M. (Hismckids@aol.com), September 17, 1999.

I'm surprised the London Times could even focus on anything other than Princess Deadanna.

-- (sickofthis@crap.com), September 17, 1999.

I think most of you are missing the frigging point.

3 Million people were told to evacuate. They were instructed by the "best" emergency managers in the World. Many of them only got as far as the highway outta dodge. They couldn't get away! It evacuation routes physically could not hold the traffic.

The real question you need to be asking is how many of those 3 million people would have DIED on the highway if the storm had really come ashore.

Anyone want to speculate on the survivability of a Rav-4 in the face of a category 4 hurricane?

Yep, got them contingency plans right chea...

-- Lead Mouse in the Wall (greytek@hotmail.com), September 17, 1999.

Another failed prediction. Must be a polly that started this non-sense:

"Na, let's wait. We don't want any false predictions here. Let's wait 'til the 155 MPH winds actually hit, then we'll tell 'em to get out. We may loose the front line at the coast, but that's no big deal."

Tick... Tock... <:00=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), September 17, 1999.

Sysman,

You just opened the door on the next part of the issue. Imagine it's January and some of those same folks are being told to evacuate, this time for some pending Y2K-related emergency; a chemical leak, sewage spill, nuclear accident or such. Now just how many of those folks are going to take that warning seriously? Or a warning for another hurricane in the next few days or weeks?

At first I thought this would be a tremendous convincer for anyone who might be in a situation where evacuation might be required. A successful evacuation, where lots of people are saved would be a shining example. Instead the evacuation turned into a fiasco which threatened the lives of many of the evacuees.

In the end, the situation turned into a "blank" being fired at the time a big shot was needed. FEMA and the various state emergency agencies have egg on their faces and lost confidence in the eyes of the public.

Y2K responses will suffer accordingly. But those who could make the connection are certainly going to re-evaluate their Y2K situation, no doubt.

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), September 17, 1999.

WW,

I hear ya, but this was the largest evacuation in history. Some things were bound to be screwed up. I just hope that those in charge have learned from their mistakes. If Gret or some other storm does the same trick, I think those at risk would do the same thing, pretty much.

But Y2K is different. A storm is something physical. You can see it, hear it, and feel it. Y2K isn't, it's just an idea at this point. The end result may be "physical," but Y2K isn't. I think this is why people aren't as serious about it, yet.

Tick... Tock... <:00=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), September 17, 1999.

I don't think evacuation plans/orders for millions of people are feasible. It is one thing to try to get people off of barrier islands and immediately adjacent to the coast. but to try to get florida to pick up[ and go to Georgia or whatever is insane. the worst place to be in a huricaine is in your car on the road IMO.

when I was camping on Cape cod the summer that Huricaine bob hit the East coast- I woke up to the steady drone of traffic. Hordes of people were trying to get off the cape- the news broadcasts warned that it was already too late to join them- that the two roads/bridges off the cape was a solid parking lot already- and that at a certain point, the bridges would be shut down to clear them before the storm hit. So- we did as recomended and went to the shelter at the High School- one of several used for this purpose. all went well there. this seems to me to be infinitely more sensible- evacuate those who live on the water, in mobile homes, etc and have them and others who wish come to public buildings that are large, sturdy and set up for this purpoe- schools, town halls, libraries, etc- makes more sense than trying to get everyone to go long distances by car. Reminds me of the scene towards the end in Final Impact where the highway is a parkig lot and everyone is washed away by the wave...... no thanx- I'll hang out at home..

-- farmer (hillsidefarm@drbs.net), September 17, 1999.

Please bear in mind that you should not be fooled by the classy-looking masthead and type of The Times. The paper has gone steadily downhill since its purchase by Rupert Murdoch. See how the Electronic Telegraph treated the story:

An ominous silence, then Floyd struck By Philip Delves Broughton in Cape Fear, North Carolina

HOUSES were destroyed and roads washed away as Hurricane Floyd hit America's east coast, bringing huge waves and winds of 90mph.

Hundreds of thousands of people suffered power cuts and flights and trains along Floyd's path were halted. "We've had terrific damage," said James Hunt, North Carolina governor, in the state capital, Raleigh. Thousands of people have lost their homes, he added.

In New York, Mayor Rudolph Giuliani warned: "It seems as though the worst of the storm is really going to hit us." Schools in the city were closed and he asked businesses to do the same so workers could return to their families.

Flooding is now the greatest danger from Floyd. Eighteen inches of rain fell in 12 hours in Wilmington, North Carolina, close to where Floyd came ashore - far further north than the forecast target of Florida, which escaped with a soaking.

The Cape Fear basin, which includes Wilmington, was ominously silent in the hours before Floyd struck. Police hauled over anyone out on the already-flooded streets after 10pm, threatening them with a night in jail if they did not go indoors.

A few locals gathered in McDevitts bar in Wilmington, a long, low room with dartboards, pool tables and the promise of male strippers on the noticeboard. The jukebox played The Doors' Riders on the Storm. "We like to sit these things out with a few Blue Hurricane cocktails," said Fay Paul, the owner. "All there is to do during a hurricane is drink, play cards and use your imagination." Senta Lombardi, 35, a McDevitts regular, said: "Bread, beer and batteries, the three Bs, that's all you need right now."

At midnight, the winds began a long, premonitory whistle. Trees started bending back further and further like gymnasts warming up, until they were almost horizontal. The rain came again, falling in fat bullets.

In different corners of town you could see white flashes as power lines fizzed out of action. Soon after 3am, there was silence again as Floyd's eye passed through town. It lasted just a few minutes before the wind came back, this time blowing in the opposite direction. By dawn, Wilmington's roads were criss-crossed with fallen trees. Downtown, a white Volvo was stuck in the middle of the road with water up to its windows.

People, terrified of being cut off for days, were reduced to squabbling in convenience stores over packets of crisps and biscuits. South Carolina's governor Jim Hodges banned price rises on essential items, threatening fines up to $100 (#62) or 30 days in jail.

In Savannah, Georgia, they removed headstones from cemeteries in case they became projectiles in the hurricane. In the event, the city was drenched and windblown but not much more.

Hurricane Floyd caused what Vice-President Al Gore described as "the biggest peacetime evacuation in United States history". After the loss of five crew from a tug off Florida, three people have died, all in car accidents from driving on wet roads. There are concerns that the authorities have cried wolf so loud that next time the warnings will be ignored.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), September 17, 1999.

Apparently they evacuated the wrong people. Several thousand folks here in NC had to wait on their rooftops for a boat or a helicopter.

A ham operator involved in rescue efforts here reported on the Raliegh repeater that a boat went out with four men in it to rescue the stranded. The boat capsised and three men drowned. I won't tell the location in case the story is inaccurate, but I have no reason to doubt it.

Better computer modeling will help target the evacuation zones in the future and prevent these tragedies. The NOAA has gotten very good at path prediction, but we need to be better.

My parents were caught on the road for 12 hours. Their house was spared but the one next door was not. Better to be on the road stuck than playing roulette with a howling screaming deathsweeper.

-- Forrest Covington (theforrest@mindspring.com), September 17, 1999.

This was the largest evacuation...was it the largest hurricane? What was different about this hurricane, I mean. I live inland :) so I am not very knowledgeable about hurricanes. It seems like they're in the news every year, though.

Anyway, it was good practice for FEMA and others no doubt, and perhaps their troubleshooters can use it to figure out which of their preparations need work, which are okay, etc. They can scale it up or down, for different areas and population sizes, to fine-tune plans for regional disturbances, based on this great data-gathering opportunity.

-- S. Kohl (kohl@hcpd.com), September 17, 1999.

Hey, Deano -

Did you have to evac out of Jax? War stories welcomed.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), September 18, 1999.

This hurricane WAS one of the largest ones, with tropical force winds stretching out about 300 miles from the center and hurricane force winds about 100 miles from the center. What made this storm a little different is that it paralleled the coast from about mid-Florida to Wilmington, NC, rather than going in at a right-angle, affecting not only those in its path but also up to 300 miles inland. Then of course Floyd continued to hit states along the East Coast as it went north. Somewhat analogous to Y2K, those in the affected areas were generally glad they evacuated or prepared; those in the unaffected areas were generally either relieved or upset they had spent all that time, trouble and money "for nothing."

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), September 18, 1999.

Mac

We tried. Boarded up and packed up when we heard the winds would be in excess of 100 MPH. Tried to go to Keystone (little hick town sw of here) and was in traffic (GOING SOUTH!) for 4 hours. Around 11pm they said it turned north and wouldn't be so bad at the beach. We headed home and rode it out with 4 adults, 6 cats, 3 dogs (rottwieler, doberman and lab - all BIG) and one little 4 year old that I was about ready to put outside on the front porch!! Not really, but he was testing my patience BIGTIME! The house ain't that big.

Wednesday wasn't bad at all. Probably didn't get more than 3 inches of rain - got 6 this weekend from Harvey in the Gulf and it's still raining!

Downed limbs all over. Couple trees in the neighborhood were down. Don't think we ever lost power. Pool was a MESS! I found sycamore leaves (the big ones) all over and have yet to find the tree they came from.

Other than that, we were very, VERY lucky. Hope our friends up north get through it OK.

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), September 20, 1999.