Factfiner:

By now I think the regular visitors to this site know your views on electric utilities and Y2K preparation. You don't see any embedded chip showstoppers or IT issues that would affect power generation and distribuution, in essense, you don't see any real problems. But what about supply chain issues? Have you had any hands-on involvement in studies that consider how slowdowns or disruptions in the supply chain would impact power generation? Do you know anyone who has? Or what about the supply chain issue in general, does anyone that you know in NERC or other electric utility member group consider it to be a potential problem? Anyway, just interested in hearing your thoughts on this issue.

Regards

-- Anonymous, September 17, 1999

Answers

Bill, I have reseached Y2k in many areas as far as embedded systems, and while I see widespread problems everywhere, they are typically minor. It is possible that some areas of manufacturing, some highly automated plants, could have a signficantly higher incidence of servere y2k bugs in their systems, not everyones percentage rate will be the same. I just don't know every single area. Having said that, I am not concerned about supply side y2k bugs, embedded or business systems. Why?

The fragility of the infrastructure,the "Butterfly effect, is a myth. Society as a whole has a survivalist mentality. We're not butterflies, we're bees. Swat a hive, the bees will stir, you may injure a few, but the hive goes on. Take a bat to the whole hive, another will spring up to take its place. Not even the black plague wiped us out.

Business has this survival instinct as well. The ones that do not, stay not. Businesses will fix what they must in order to continue to operate....this is something I have no doubts about. Will they all get it right the first time? No way, the bell curve is alive, and while most will be just fine, you can bet that a few will have missed y2k bugs to deal with. But even then, they arent dead - very few embedded bugs will be severe (the ones that are, in higher level control systems, are almost certainly in companies with the knowledge to prevent them in the first place). Software bugs that cause severe problems can be fixed - how long? Depends on the software and support. As the money clock ticks, you can be sure that things will be fixed as quickly as possible. Most large companies are reviewing their suppliers and looking at alternatives for contingency planning.

Overall, my view: A fair number of minor problems but very few signficant Y2K bugs at the rollover, the ones that occur will be fixed. No serious problems with the "supply chain". People, Y2K is almost over now, the severe problems with new software will likely pick-up as the year end approaches, and carry through a smaller number toward the rollover, but the bulk of the problems will have already been experienced.

Y2K is a swat at a lot of hives, and the hives will go on buzzing.

Regards

Regards,

-- Anonymous, September 17, 1999

Bill, I have reseached Y2k in many areas as far as embedded systems, and while I see widespread problems everywhere, they are typically minor. It is possible that some areas of manufacturing, some highly automated plants, could have a signficantly higher incidence of servere y2k bugs in their systems, not everyones percentage rate will be the same. I just don't know every single area. Having said that, I am not concerned about supply side y2k bugs, embedded or business systems. Why?

The fragility of the infrastructure,the "Butterfly effect, is a myth. Society as a whole has a survivalist mentality. We're not butterflies, we're bees. Swat a hive, the bees will stir, you may injure a few, but the hive goes on. Take a bat to the whole hive, another will spring up to take its place. Not even the black plague wiped us out.

Business has this survival instinct as well. The ones that do not, stay not. Businesses will fix what they must in order to continue to operate....this is something I have no doubts about. Will they all get it right the first time? No way, the bell curve is alive, and while most will be just fine, you can bet that a few will have missed y2k bugs to deal with. But even then, they arent dead - very few embedded bugs will be severe (the ones that are, in higher level control systems, are almost certainly in companies with the knowledge to prevent them in the first place). Software bugs that cause severe problems can be fixed - how long? Depends on the software and support. As the money clock ticks, you can be sure that things will be fixed as quickly as possible. Most large companies are reviewing their suppliers and looking at alternatives for contingency planning.

Overall, my view: A fair number of minor problems but very few signficant Y2K bugs at the rollover, the ones that occur will be fixed. No serious problems with the "supply chain". People, Y2K is almost over now, severe problems (non date related) with new software will likely pick-up as the year end approaches, and carry over a smaller number toward the rollover, but the bulk of the problems will have already been experienced. The y2k date bugs at the rollover will be visible but not significant when viewed as a whole. And the predictions of most problems occuring not at the rollover, but the next few months, well, that's some great excuse making by those who once claimed that Jan. 1, 2000 was the critical date. I am glad to see at least this acceptance of reality though :)

Y2K is a swat at a lot of hives, and the hives will go on buzzing.

Regards

Regards,

-- Anonymous, September 17, 1999

FactFinder, Just the fact that your thoughts posted twice gives credibility to the supposition that Y2K's effects on electricity are going to be greater than you think. I can clearly remember the hundreds of Fortran cards used by my husband in college just to learn the basics of the language. Time after time, he had to return to the computer science building at MSU--the only building kept open for twenty-two hours per day--to try to succeed by changing one card and running his program again. If we had perfect machines in charge, things might be okay, but there are human hands and brains behind every single line of code, every data entry, and every embedded system. We're not perfect. A little extra caffeine, and a hand jumps. Or, a missed line, and the data won't enter. Please start stocking up on those beenie-weenies you like so much!

-- Anonymous, September 17, 1999

Factfinder,

Thanks for your prompt reply. You said:

Bill, I have reseached Y2k in many areas as far as embedded systems, and while I see widespread problems everywhere, they are typically minor. ( Did you miss the Chemical industry? They seem to think embedded systems could be a serious issue.) It is possible that some areas of manufacturing, some highly automated plants, could have a signficantly higher incidence of servere y2k bugs in their systems, not everyones percentage rate will be the same. I just don't know every single area. Having said that, I am not concerned about supply side y2k bugs, embedded or business systems. Why? The fragility of the infrastructure,the "Butterfly effect, is a myth. Society as a whole has a survivalist mentality. We're not butterflies, we're bees. Swat a hive, the bees will stir, you may injure a few, but the hive goes on. Take a bat to the whole hive, another will spring up to take its place. Not even the black plague wiped us out. (Factfinder this could be an excellent analogy if we had all the time in the world, I think the real issue is what would be the impact to a electric utility if a critical component of the supply chain was unable to deliver for a prolonged period of time.)

Business has this survival instinct as well. The ones that do not, stay not. ( This is exactly my concern, I'm not woried about the ones that are going to be sucessful, I'm concerned about the ones that may fail.) Businesses will fix what they must in order to continue to operate....this is something I have no doubts about. Will they all get it right the first time? No way, the bell curve is alive, and while most will be just fine, you can bet that a few will have missed y2k bugs to deal with. ( It is exactly the ones that want get it right that concerns me.} But even then, they arent dead - very few embedded bugs will be severe (the ones that are, in higher level control systems, are almost certainly in companies with the knowledge to prevent them in the first place). ( What makes you think they will prevent them in the first place? Remember you are the one that believes in the bell curve. So doesn't the bell curve logic apply to all companies, or just the ones that could'nt prevent problems in the first place?) Software bugs that cause severe problems can be fixed - how long? Depends on the software and support. As the money clock ticks, you can be sure that things will be fixed as quickly as possible. Most large companies are reviewing their suppliers and looking at alternatives for contingency planning. ( I agree, but a large amount of Small or medium businesses are doing nothing, they plan to fix on failure.)

Overall, my view: A fair number of minor problems but very few signficant Y2K bugs at the rollover, the ones that occur will be fixed. ( I agree but the real issue is how ling will it take to fix the ones that fail.) No serious problems with the "supply chain". People, Y2K is almost over now, severe problems (non date related) with new software will likely pick-up as the year end approaches, and carry over a smaller number toward the rollover, but the bulk of the problems will have already been experienced. The y2k date bugs at the rollover will be visible but not significant when viewed as a whole. ( Factfinder IMHO, you are not looking at the supply chain issue but are blowing it off as a non-isssue. And the predictions of most problems occuring not at the rollover, but the next few months, well, that's some great excuse making by those who once claimed that Jan. 1, 2000 was the critical date. ( I think rather than an excuse, this is a well thought out and reasoned response. Things will fail, they will be fixed, other systems downstream will fail etc. etc.) I am glad to see at least this acceptance of reality though :)

Y2K is a swat at a lot of hives, and the hives will go on buzzing. ( However, there may be a lot of dead bee's and honey may be in short supply for some time)

Factfinder, I am amazed how on one hand, you can be so analytical in your thinking on some issues but refuse to examine other issues. In any event, I'm always glad to listen to your opinions. BTW, I don't think Bonnie intentially meant to make you look bad with her post regarding hurricanes.

Regards

Regards,

-- FactFinder (FactFinder@bzn.com), September 17, 1999.

-- Anonymous, September 17, 1999

Bill, Wow, had this thread been a debate, you would have won hands down. Excellent points, all of them. I will be frank here, I am beginning to suffer from Y2K burnout, and really am almost tired of doing analytical "stuff". I took the easy way out in this thread and you called it right.

You asked if I had taken researched Y2K in the chemical industry, and no I have not. I have read a few articles and seen lots of the usual hype, but haven't done the research. I am taking the "easy" way out on this one as well, and assuming that the same types of equipment and controls that are used everywhere else are also used here. So there.

Give me a few days or a week or so before expecting my usual analysis, I need a vacation!

Regards,

-- Anonymous, September 17, 1999

Factfinder:

Thanks for your honest response. IMHO your integrity and honesty is beyond reproach. Your analytical logic has caused me to be less concerned about Y2K and electric utilities regarding the embedded systems issue. However, I am very concerned about supply chain issues.

The thing that most concerns me is the lack of credible information out there. Either Y2K will be a fizzle or it will have blockbuster impacts on society. It is extremely dificult to get a handle on what will really happen. Therefore for this reason, I'm preparing. We have a month's worth of food and water stored away. I figure it may be more than a winter storm but less than TEOTWAWKI. If a month of supplies won't suffice, then we will be living in an untenable situation, and it won't make much diference if we live or die because that would be a world in which we would not want to be a part of in any event.

Anyway, thanks for your honest answer, and please research the supply chain issue in depth. BTW, my wife and I are going grosery shopping today. We'll buy some "beanie-weenie's" for you. :)

Regards

-- Anonymous, September 18, 1999

Bill,

I hope you didn't really mean it when you said that a possible massive change in social structure would create an untenable situation that wouldn't be worth living in/for. I really don't think you have that option of opinion. Sometimes "It is darkest before the dawn" as the saying goes. Never give up. Never give up. Never give up!

-- Anonymous, September 18, 1999

Gordon,

What I was trying to say was since no one really knows how bad things will be, it's up to each individual to make thier own assessment and then act on that assessment. Some individuals are buying guns, heading for the hills and stockpiling a year's worth of food and water. Some are preparing for three or six months. Some are preparing for a three day storm. Most are doing nothing.

Since most people are not preparing at all, if Y2K is a ten, then our social structure will breakdown. There will be rioting in the streets and general anarchy. Gangs will roam the countryside with weapons looking for food. People will kill for food and water. That's why I'm preparing for just a month. I don't own a gun and have no intention of buying one. I don't believe in them. If it's a ten, I won't be involved in killing starving people.

I'm not giving up, I'm just trying to stay rational now rather than act in an ire-rational manner in an uncertain future.

-- Anonymous, September 18, 1999

bill,

this troubles me...

i feel that you should reconsider the length of time for which you have prepared... it will be too late if you require food for three months and you have only enough for one.

we, as a nation, are not accustomed to the need of doing without food... or most anything else for that matter.

if you are aware of maslow's "hierarchy of needs," you are aware that the more 'lofty' philosophies have a tendency to fly out the window when our basic needs are not being met... this includes your more 'lofty' philosophies/aspirations also.

three months is not an inordinate amount of food to store...

please reconsider.

-- Anonymous, September 18, 1999

Marianne, Thanks for your concern. The Government has convinced the populus that Y2K will be no more than a three strom, therefore most folks are either doing nothing or preparing for just a few days. I have heard estimates that 95 to 98% of the families in the US are doing nothing. That is a very large amount of folks that will be rioting if Y2K turns out to be a ten. You said:

if you are aware of maslow's "hierarchy of needs," you are aware that the more 'lofty' philosophies have a tendency to fly out the window when our basic needs are not being met... this includes your more 'lofty' philosophies/aspirations also. I am indeed aware of maslow's work and I believe him to be "right-on".

I got married when I was quite young. I was eighteen and my wife was seventeen. I was in the Army and stationed in Germany and my wife came over to be with me. Our oldest son was born in Germany.

Our son was nine months old when the US Army informed me that they had been "overpaying" me for the last two years. They said they were going to deduct thier money from my pay for the next three months. So instead of getting 300 dollars a month, I would only get one hundred each month. I went to my company commander, to the Army Relief Agency and to the Red Cross asking for help. They all told me that there was nothing that they could do. So what did I do for the next few months? I stole food. So believe me, I know from personal experience what people will do when they are backed into a corner. If it's a ten, expect food riots.

You also said: i feel that you should reconsider the length of time for which you have prepared... it will be too late if you require food for three months and you have only enough for one.

Marianne, what if you need food and water for six months, or a year, or two years and you have only prepared for three months? The point I'm trying to make is this: If's a 10, and society breaks down, then it really does not matter how long you are prepared to be without food and water, you and your family will be a target for those who have not prepared.

-- Anonymous, September 18, 1999

Bill,

There are so many ways that this could turn out, even if it goes into the 9-10 scenario. And it won't go into that immediately, anyway, that will take some time, more than 3 months I think. Read Little House On The Prarie. Sometimes all that hungry people want is work, so that they can trade for food. Have a little extra. You may make some very fine new friends. As Depak Chopra says, this is a universe of infinite possibilities.

-- Anonymous, September 18, 1999

bill,

let me try this tact...

if you would have known me and the livestyle i led pre 'getting it' you would not believe i could ever have adjusted to things as they might become.

one of the things that became crystal clear to me in a flash of enlightenment was my dependence for survival on everything outside of my purview.

considering the fragility and interdependencies of the society in which we live and the breathtaking incompetency of the government on whom we depend... this was not a good thing.

i have since 'getting it' taken the necessary steps to assure that i, myself, am capable of providing heat, light, water, and food while depending on no one but myself. i am capable of doing this for an unlimited amount of time.

how far we have come, in such a short time, from being an independent and self sustaining people to ones that cannot survive one week without depending on corporations and supply chains that are run without our best interests at heart.

all that matters is the bottom line. nepotism is rampant, the peter principle is alive and well, and we have mortgaged our future and that of our children's to a system built on perception and spin.

y2k or no y2k... i will never allow myself to succumb to that position again.

-- Anonymous, September 18, 1999

Whatever his position - Factfinder's voice is crucial to this forum.

I know I rely upon it. For an educated stance (although shared by so few herein) that provides VERY intelligent COMMUNICATION & a calming influence/// that evokes crucial debate that helps us all to THINK that much more clearly...

And Invaluably.

I wish i could grill you in private on water sytems - outside the topic of this forum....

-- Anonymous, September 19, 1999

Marianne, I sent an e-mail to a friend yesterday that is almost word for word your above post and I had not read your post. How do we get water? Faucet=water. I have never stored even one glass of water. When a hurricane was likely, I bought water (really stupid thing to do; I could have stored some right then from the faucet.) The point is, we die quickly from lack of water whatever causes the lack of it, and we depend on someone else to give us this life sustaining substance. My grandparents had no electricity and if people in those days wanted water, they had to dig a well. They had to provide it themselves, no one to depend on. If they wanted food, they had to grow it. If they wanted light, they had to have lamps and kerosene. I have no idea where they got the kerosene. I was a small child during this period of time. They had a pot bellied stove in the middle of the living room. It was warm right around it but very cold not far from it. When I was there in the winter time, my mother or grandmother would heat irons used to press clothes, wrap them in cloth and put them in the feather bed to warm the bed before I got in it. They had cows so they had milk. There was a spring down from the house where they kept milk and butter in the cold spring water.

We pay for these things now. Our independence is gone. Those that are preparing are buying 1999 items to take with us to possible 1900 conditions.

I'm with you. I will never again be relying on others to provide necessities for my existance. I will be able to live off the grid and off the faucet forever. I have taken back my independence.

-- Anonymous, September 19, 1999

Marcella, Marianne, et al... ANYONE: RE- WATER.

This forum is specifically for electric utilities.

BUT: WHERE is the forum for water utilities?

Is it by-default dependant upon ELECTRICAL ISSUES????

Jim Lord's 'leak' of the NAVY documents details THEIR accessment of so many US cities in threat for lack of water.

BUT THAT IS ONLY cities with Naval/Marine bases nearby!!!

How many more are at risk- outside that military accessment? And what is their status regarding scada/embedded chips and other ELECTRICAL inter-dependencies?

Are most of them *repairing upon failure* with VERY debatebly- functional 'manual back-up systems'???? Who knows?

Do they have parts they need? I don't even know the right questions to ask. About SCADA systems, etc. What little I have managed to review - gives me little peace. And I am not concerned for myself, but am INTENSELY concerned for countless others.

-- Anonymous, September 20, 1999

Hi everyone,

I'm not making a single personal survival preparation for the Year-end roll-over. I know that nothing will happen. The lights will stay on. We have seen to that in our two-year long rectification program.

The only thing that really upsets me is that, as Year 2000 Project Manager for Durban Metro Electricity, I have to report for duty at 2200 Hrs on 1999-12-31. It is the eve of the new millennium (I won't be around for the next one) and I have to go to work! Cruel world! One consolation, I can go to the rooftop and watch all the fireworks displays and listen the ships fog horns blasting away.

See ya on the night..........James Prosser

-- Anonymous, September 20, 1999

diane,

water is just one of the many things that factfinder has conveniently assumed will be 'same old, same old' come the rollover... even koskinen is concerned about the water supply.

and yes, i agree... even though i am prepared; i fear for those that are not. i can barely stand to look at the many older and more vulnerable people that walk the streets of our cities.. thinking about what could possibly go down as a result of the rollover.

when i read greenspan's latest statement[and ed's response] i could not help but notice the 'new' way of referring to y2k... "the century date change." obviously 'y2k' conjures up too much of a 'negative connotation' in some minds... so the newspeak is cdc.

this sends up more big, red flags in my mind. i wonder if they are ever going to actually warn the populous to adequately prepare... i believe they really intend to go right down to the wire on this. when and where did the people of this country ever lose so much control that we have allowed ourselves to be led by those that could not think their way out of a water closet?

i just don't understand how they can blithely put the people at risk and then assume they can pick up the pieces on the other side.

ever since i had that 'nde' experience as a child i have been a 'tad' too sensitive to the suffering of others, e.g., if someone suffers a serious injury to their right arm... my right arm begins to ache... events such as 'bhopal', the earthquake in turkey, and TMI take me 'over the edge.' i really do _not_ understand how 'they' can place the country in jeopardy and treat it as 'no big deal.'

yes... money is a powerful motivator, but i don't believe that anyone has figured out a way to take it with them when they leave the planet for the great beyond... and i am not talking about outer space.

jim,

all i can say to you is... a word to the wise is sufficient. my family's business was insurance, if you can't see the necessity of a more pragmatic form of insurance to ride out this debacle... god help you.

-- Anonymous, September 20, 1999

Bill Watt wrote:

Since most people are not preparing at all, if Y2K is a ten, then our social structure will breakdown. There will be rioting in the streets and general anarchy. Gangs will roam the countryside with weapons looking for food. People will kill for food and water. That's why I'm preparing for just a month. I don't own a gun and have no intention of buying one. I don't believe in them. If it's a ten, I won't be involved in killing starving people.

Our social structure may break down, but the collapse of civilization will not make us uncivilized. People make the leap from computer breakdowns to roaming gangs without a thought. Hollywood has conditioned us. It can't happen. I would make several separate arguments against it:

1) I cannot imagine how these gangs would get organized, conduct a thorough search and fairly divide the booty when they find it.

2) It does not work economically. The gang will not find enough food to sustain itself. It is suicide and while individuals can and will do anything, populations will not. The species will find a viable economy. We will not commit suicide.

3) People will not all run out of food and water at the same time. Those who are completely out will always be the minority, not the majority.

4) Violence in some places in inevitable, but violence consumes a lot of energy. People who do not have fresh water and food get sick fairly quickly. The violence will burn out.

5) The problem will not be a lack of food or water everywhere. The problem will distribution.

6) There is no historical precedent for it. If there is no food or water in one part of the country, the population will become refugees and flee toward food and water. There is a great deal of historical precedent for that.

I think Hollywood Horror is one reason for Y2k denial. Gary North (and Ed Yourdon) make this leap from widespread computer failure to New York turning into Beirut. It does not scan.

Clogged transportation networks, people on foot in the dead of winter, disease from bad water, death from exposure, real hunger... these are the worst case scenarios. Sarajevo. Leningrad during the seige. Modern day Russia. They are terrible consequences because they are real. Virtually anyone can prepare themselves to survive that.

But once you make the leap to Road Warrior... Hey, I'm a middle aged wuss! I can't survive that! Gary North offers me death or denial! No wonder I choose denial. I decide Y2k will not be a big deal because I am afraid of Dennis Hopper in Waterworld.

Where did Dennis Hopper get his cigarettes in Waterworld? How did Mel Gibson eat in Road Warrior? If the host goes down, the parasites are the first to go.

Focus on the real problems. If you are ready to be on your own for a month, you will probably have enough no matter what. Three months is better. Be flexible. Ready for anything. You are clever enough to fit into the new economy if the old one goes down as long as you have some breathing room. That is why you stockpile. Breathing room. So you don't have be part of the clog.

The bad news about Y2k is that it could mean TEOTWAWKI. The good news is that TEOTWAWKI is not nearly as bad as we imagine.

It's bad, but not nearly that bad.

Tom

-- Anonymous, September 20, 1999

Tom,

You said:

Our social structure may break down, but the collapse of civilization will not make us uncivilized. People make the leap from computer breakdowns to roaming gangs without a thought. Hollywood has conditioned us. It can't happen. I would make several separate arguments against it:

1) I cannot imagine how these gangs would get organized, conduct a thorough search and fairly divide the booty when they find it.

(The same way gangs got organized during the Watts riots. I 've been led to believe, that for the most part, existing gangs just saw a window of opportunity and took advantage of it. How does any gang get organized? They get together and conspire to commit illegal acts all the time. Thier motive? They want to get the loot. If Y2K is a 10, loot will be defined as food.)

2) It does not work economically. The gang will not find enough food to sustain itself. It is suicide and while individuals can and will do anything, populations will not. The species will find a viable economy. We will not commit suicide.

(I suggest you use this argument and tell it to the small business owners whose property was looted by gangs during the Watts riots. I don't think they would buy it. As far as populations doing or not doing anything, I think it all depends on which members of the population we are talking about. I doubt that members of a nunnary or monestary would harm anyone. But the rest us......well, that's a horse of a different complexion.

I agree, that in time, we as a species will survive and eventually build a better society. However, my comments were directed to the immediate aftermath of a "Y2K 10", which by defintion, reflects rioting. )

3) People will not all run out of food and water at the same time. Those who are completely out will always be the minority, not the majority.

(Tom, how do you know this to be true? I live in South Florida. I saw people cleaning out the shelves just before huricane Floyd was due to arrive. THey were the majority. In this instance, they would all run out of food and water at the same time because they waited until the last minute to get any. Since most people are not preparing for Y2K I would expect that they would, indeed, all run out of staples at the same time.)

4) Violence in some places in inevitable, but violence consumes a lot of energy. People who do not have fresh water and food get sick fairly quickly. The violence will burn out.

(Tom, have you ever heard of the "Donner Party", they were early pioneers that got stranded in a mountain pass. In the begining there were 87 of them. Only 40 surivived, they survived by eating the 47 that did not. From all accounts, they were decent law-abiding folks. And yet they somehow found the energy to devour thier friends.)

5) The problem will not be a lack of food or water everywhere. The problem will distribution.

(I agree.)

6) There is no historical precedent for it. If there is no food or water in one part of the country, the population will become refugees and flee toward food and water. There is a great deal of historical precedent for that.

(I agree. However, there also is no historical precedent for Y2K, with possible multible and diverse failures occuring at the same time. So it's really difficult to know how well multiple disasters can be managed at the same time.)

I think Hollywood Horror is one reason for Y2k denial. Gary North (and Ed Yourdon) make this leap from widespread computer failure to New York turning into Beirut. It does not scan.

(I personally do not believe Y2K will be a 10. I think it will either be a bump in the road or a 5 or 6.)

Clogged transportation networks, people on foot in the dead of winter, disease from bad water, death from exposure, real hunger... these are the worst case scenarios. Sarajevo. Leningrad during the seige. Modern day Russia. They are terrible consequences because they are real. Virtually anyone can prepare themselves to survive that.

(I agree, these may be long term results, but if Y2K is a 10, then I think food riots will precede them.)

But once you make the leap to Road Warrior... Hey, I'm a middle aged wuss! I can't survive that! Gary North offers me death or denial! No wonder I choose denial. ( You said it Tom, not me.) I decide Y2k will not be a big deal because I am afraid of Dennis Hopper in Waterworld.

(Tom, I am not saying that we are going to "road warior". However, I believe we will have incidences of "road wariorship" before we begin re-building our society.)

Where did Dennis Hopper get his cigarettes in Waterworld? How did Mel Gibson eat in Road Warrior? If the host goes down, the parasites are the first to go.

(My guess is that they got thier supplies from the movie production commissary :). )

Focus on the real problems. If you are ready to be on your own for a month, you will probably have enough no matter what. Three months is better. Be flexible. Ready for anything. You are clever enough to fit into the new economy if the old one goes down as long as you have some breathing room. That is why you stockpile. Breathing room. So you don't have be part of the clog.

( L O N G S I G H! I agree.)

The bad news about Y2k is that it could mean TEOTWAWKI. The good news is that TEOTWAWKI is not nearly as bad as we imagine.

(I wish I had the answer and I wish you did also, unfortuneally all we can do is wait and see.)

It's bad, but not nearly that bad.

(Please send me your crystal ball when you are finished with it!)

Regards,

Bill

-- Anonymous, September 20, 1999

If electricity goes, then people go from law abiding citizens to exist at any cost citizens. The strongest primal urge in the human psyche is existance. Yes, people will leave the cities within two days if they cannot get water. They will head for the nearest lake if they have transportation. A couple of million people will leave a large city about an hour and a half from me. They can reach two smaller lakes before they get to the lake outside my front door. My lake is enormous. Hundreds of thousands will make it to my lake. Am I concerned about my safety? You bet I am.

-- Anonymous, September 21, 1999

I know this exchange is getting off topic, sorry Rick.

Bill, I dont have a crystal ball. I admit to some degree I am applying an old bridge rule. If the King of Spades is offside the contract is doomed. Therefore plan the play as if the king is onside. There are certain Y2k possibilities I am simply not worried about because I cant do anything about them. Roving mobs and a nuclear exchange are both in that category.

But I have thought it through. I have tried to imagine what would happen if the plug was suddenly pulled on a large American city and I dont think many people have.

I dont know about Watts, but I was once caught in the middle of a Stanley Cup riot. It was crazy. A mob, not a gang. There was no reason, no objective. I am sure we will get that in some places if the power goes down. In other places it wont happen. But that is a far cry from organized gangs roaming the countryside. The riots will very quickly burn themselves out. Looters will probably cart home stereos and leather coats, just like always.

Existing gangs might be well enough organized to clean out the food on their own turf. But then what? By the time they think of branching out, there is very little food to steal in the next neighbourhood or the next. In a 10 scenario, distances suddenly become very great. The gang has to find a continual supply of food and water. In an economic sense, the gang will not be able to earn a living. The costs in energy expended finding and taking the food is not recovered by the amount of plunder.

There may be a dirty living preying on refugees, but they wont have much either. Taking a little away from a lot of refugees is a hard way to make a living. One of the reasons we have a lot of crime is that we are so wealthy. Crime does pay. It does not pay nearly as well when the victims are very poor.

I agree that people will be woefully unprepared, but the people cleaning out the shelves just before the datequake will not have completely empty larders at home. Some people will be completely out of food right away. Others will have a couple of days. Some people will have a couple of weeks. Others will be lardered up because they are always lardered up. As people run out of food (or get close to running out of food) they will move.

I have heard about the Donner Party and other instances of cannibalism. The difference is that the Donners had no other alternatives. They were stranded in a mountain pass. Again, in this instance there will be plenty of food - just no distribution network. Down the road from me there is a dairy farmer with a couple of hundred head. Within days, he will have to slaughter cows. Anybody who gets to his farm will be able to work for milk or meat. The fish farmer has a similar set of problems. His fish will start dying very quickly if the infrastructure blows.

The point is that there are smart alternatives. As a desperate person I can use my limited energy to get to the food and the working opportunity or I can use the limited energy to try to rob people when most people dont have anything to rob. Some individuals will make a stupid choice, but most people will head for the nearest grain silo and join the tent city around that silo. That will be their best survival option.

I agree that there is no historical precedent for Y2k. But there is historical precedent for the worst case. The Serbs pulled the plug on Sarajevo. Leningrad was under seige for nearly 900 days. We have had famines and droughts that forced large population shifts. The assumption here is that the multiple disasters are not managed at all. I think most people will stay at home for as long as possible waiting for them to fix the problems. Many - particulalry the weak and elderly - will choose to simply give up and stay in bed.

But the survivors will move until the population is again in equilibrium. If there is no food or water in a city, the population has to crash and it has to crash very quickly. The only way it can crash quickly enough is if people flee. People stockpiled stay, unprepared people move. At some point there is enough green space and game and water to support the population.

Food riots? They do happen, but mostly because the price of food has increased, and the public is protesting. I can imagine them happening but it is not a rational response to the problems, so they will not be widespread and they will quickly peter out.

Again the fundamental premise is that while individuals will behave irrationally, the population will not. There is a chance - of course - that an armed gang will shoot me for my rice, but I would have to be very unlucky for that to happen. It wont happen to very many people.

We may in the end be agreeing in the sense that my 10 on the Y2k Richter scale is really a 6 on your scale, but we have different reasons for the assessment. I figure that once we move past the bump in the road we can slide all the way to a 10 (on my scale) just by increasing the number of failures.

In my worst case scenario, the global economy collapses. Everyone is out of business and everyone is unemployed. What will happen? I think everyone will scramble to make a living, to sell something, to get their needs met. The result will be a wild surge of local economic activity. The black market becomes the new economy. Human beings come roaring back like the cockroaches we are.

We are all feeling our way in the dark when trying to predict Y2k outcomes. None of us have a crystal ball, and nobody knows what is going to happen. Very likely we are all wrong. That said, I am out of step with almost everyone in my predictions. I am as pessimistic as they come about the computer crisis. I do not believe the Y2k story as it is being presented to us. I think we will get many crashes, many failures, and the consequences will be very bad. In that context, I am much closer to Gary North than to John Koskinen.

But North leaps from our very nearly identical positions - that Y2k is a systemic problem - to Head for the Hills, the mutant cannibals are coming and I think that is ridiculous. So I end up fighting with the Pollyannas about the computer problem and fighting the doomers about the people problem.

It has been a long 18 months and no matter what happens, Im glad it is nearly over.

Tom.

-- Anonymous, September 21, 1999

If electricity fails in a large city, how long will it take for people to start dying? Three days unless they freeze to death before then. How long will it take before the inhabitants of that city realize there is no help coming because that many people cannot be watered and fed by the government? Two days if they are without water. Does anyone think enough water for New York City or Washington, D.C. can be trucked in? Where would it come from?

Bread is not the staff of life anymore - electricity is. We die without it unless we have a way to exist on our own.

-- Anonymous, September 22, 1999

Tom, I have to agree with Marcella.

Bill

-- Anonymous, September 22, 1999

I agree with Marcella, too. No power, no Western civilization.

Tom

-- Anonymous, September 22, 1999

I'll admit I've been a lurker for a while, with a few interjections here and there, but it just really hit me reading this thread. Do you really think we'll just tank it without electricity? Do you really belive when the power goes off, total mayhem? Do you really think the electric companies will just look at each other, shrug and pack it in? Maybe some people don't have a sense of duty, but there are alot of us who do. If I'm to protect my family and I work for any major utility, I would have to think getting my utility working is the quickest way to get order back, not hiding in my house with my stash, gun in hand ready to whack anyone who comes too close.

Come on, this has the potential to be the biggest cash cow in history. Every third world nation that folds will need cash, and cash comes from goods, so every programmer willing to sell his services to the highest bidding country is going to cash in. Every company affected in America will be the same way. Money is money, and I'm willing to bet if the oil doesn't flow, every Iraian, Argentinian, etc will be chased out to the national pipe line to manually open valves and fill the damn ships, for the CA$H. Every little dictator knows when the cash cow goes away, so do they.

Money makes the world go around, and opportunists are salivating!

-- Anonymous, September 22, 1999

TM,

I wish it was that simple. Unfortunately, if the grid goes down (for whatever reason), people still need to eat. They need to drink clean water. If the worst case happened and the entire grid went down, we'd be in a whole pile of trouble after a week or so.

Whether people have an incentive to fix something or not doesn't matter if they can't get clean water to drink. During times of crisis (like hurricane Floyd), generally supplies and workers are brought in from an non-affected area. If the whole grid is down, there won't be any non-affected areas.

Now, it appears from a technical standpoint that the grid probably won't go down. But there are other ways it could happen, including an economic collapse, or if a few suitcase nukes get set off in various major cities, or a severe oil crisis, or any combination of things.

Jon

-- Anonymous, September 22, 1999