Greenspan comments Friday????greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
I just heard a "promo" on CNN regarding some type of speech event for Alan Greenspan tomorrow, Friday, Sept 17th, regarding y2K. Anybody else hear that? When and where? I hope someone will be able to post a transcript. TIA!!
-- jeanne (email@example.com), September 16, 1999
Any takers on whether he'll repeat his oft-quoted (mainly by me :) ) "99% is not good enough" spiel...
I bet not...
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 16, 1999.
I predict that Greenspan will "cautiously" speak about Y2K in a way as not to get the masses riled, but enough to get the investors thinking that TSWHTF. The sheeple aren't listening, it's way over their heads. Interest rates will rise definately. It's time to take your profits now if you haven't already. Gold purchases should be made NOW! Oil prices will begin to escalate, hoarding is starting now. Greenspan knows what's going to happen, his wealth is safely tucked away.
-- no kidding (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 16, 1999.
Here's an article about it:
[Fair Use: For Educational/Research Purposes Only]
Thursday September 16, 10:37 am Eastern Time
Greenspan to say US banks ready for Y2K on Friday
WASHINGTON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will try to assure Americans on Friday that U.S. banks are ready to cope with the effects of the year 2000 computer bug, known as Y2K, a Fed official said.
Federal Reserve Board Governor Edward Kelley said on Thursday that Greenspan would aim to do this in a speech on Friday before a conference on Y2K readiness held by the Fed and the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion.
``I think Chairman Greenspan is going to reassure us all that we are in good shape for Y2K,'' Kelley told reporters.
He was speaking after a news conference by financial regulators on the readiness of financial institutions for the Year 2000 computer problem.
-- Linkmeister (email@example.com), September 16, 1999.
Then SOMEBODY better check to see if his pants are on fire.....
-- Chuck, a night driver (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 16, 1999.
No one's money is safely tucked away. Where? Where would you safely tuck it??? But this shows how deeply scared they are, doesn't it, to have him address this?
-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), September 16, 1999.
To get back to reality, this is what the BIS in Europe is saying,
Y2K really annoys the insiders, the establishment, the Tri Lats-- because it's the only thing they can't control, & it threatens to cripple or destroy all their controls. They firmly control the mega- banks, global money system, mega-media, all major political parties (on both sides in every nation), & the multi-nationals. But Y2K snuck up on them, & they're mad & scared. They're desperately spending billions to try to "fix" it but they know it can't be totally fixed, perhaps not ever. It will also be a major setback for Big Brother, in all its aspects, from tax collection to bank rule to centralized bureaucracy & monitoring. As a result, the average person will get a lot of unexpected benefits from Y2K. Some are hoping for a worst-case scenario. "However painful, it's a worthwhile cost to regain individual freedom" they say, in essence. Freedom has never been free. If U don't really feel Y2K is going to be a BIG DEAL, & if therefore it annoys or upsets U to read data reports from people who say it probably IS going to be a big deal, then don't bother to read this article. Skip on to the next one. Mostly, people aren't changing their minds, are decided re Y2K. If U are a new subscriber, U should read this so U see what we consider the critical/updated facts. Unless U get heavy/daily Y2K updated hard data (as we do) then it would be puzzling how U can decide either way--without all the new daily facts. But most people are deciding emotionally, not objectively, not factually. That's their option, even if subconscious. So, read on or not, as U choose.
For those few who are still reading (:-), here's the latest: Many are comforted to hear that govt & biz have Y2K "contingency plans." Instead, that glib phrase should scare them. Think about it! If all govt depts, banks, biz, military, airports, hospitals who claim they are Y2K- compliant (as most now claim) were really bug-resistant, why would they need vast contingency plans? "Contingency" isn't just a throwaway word; it means something, ie, what we'll do if our individual company/bureau/system breaks down.
They're spending massive money on contingency plans, which means they've little confidence in their claims they're fully Y2K- compliant. Some have thrown in the towel, admit they can't get compliant in time, & will rely mainly on contingency plans. At least they're honest. That can't be said for the blowhard bluffers who are hoping to con people they're foolproof. Fools, yes. Foolproof: unlikely. Only a minority submit to audits of their repair/test/compliance claims.
Many insiders admit they're far behind schedule & will be on a "fix- on-fault" basis in 2000, ie they'll fix/repair embedded chip/computer/system breakdowns if/as they occur. That means after trouble. The catch is: how do they get back up if the whole system is down? Bottom line: the world is one big web of contingency plans & fix-on-fault. Nobody is 100% safe/compliant, because it's impossible to attain. And that is fact, spoken by the world's leading engineering group. US Senate Y2K Report: "Y2K is not going to be just another 'bump in the road.' No, it's going to be one of the most serious & potentially devastating events the US has ever encountered." Govts tend to soft-pedal bad news, so that statement should be a wake-up call to many. Turn up your hearing aid!
The BIS (Bank for Int'l Settlements, Basel, Switzerland) is the central bank for all other central banks. Their Y2K view is not cheerful. In a fat report they say "some problems will be missed; new problems will be inadvertently introduced via the remediation process; even the best test programs may not detect all potential errors; uncertainty will remain up to & after Jan 1. In other words, it is inevitable there will be Y2K disruption, athough it's not possible to predict how serious or widespread this disruption will be."
So there U have it. Central banks will go into 2000 not knowing if these systems are fixed. They know most are not fixed, worldwide. Compare BIS language to your local bank's PR rubbish. The BIS report goes on in great detail. If U read it all U lose any shred of optimism. The general threat is a breakdown of the inter-bank payments system. And once down, how to get it back up? BIS says: Y2K is "unlike any other disruption problem where identical backup sites can be activated. But any uncorrected Y2K problem is likely to affect both sites so the backup would not be a contingency."
It gets worse. BIS, who says what neither private banks nor govt banks dare to say, reveals: "The inability of a major payment & settlement system to function smoothly, or have procedures for isolating problems, will intensify uncertainty/concern. In the extreme case, this could have repercussions throughout the global & domestic systems." Conclusion: the world economy is at acute risk. This is not some "doom/gloom" offbeat writer's view; it's the bluest of the blue chip banks. If your hair hasn't turned grey so far, read the following:
The BIS advises banks to get the home phone numbers of regulators & govt officials so they can be contacted at night or on weekends to discuss the prudence of "closing markets & declaring an emergency financial bank holiday." This is scarier than any Y2K newsletter writer (except Gary North) has dared to say. And it's the real thing! U see, if banks go down, there can be no stock/bond/property mkt, or any other mkt, except black mkts of course, using cash. And all this is separate from equal risks from no power, oil, water, & no phones/fax/e-mail. U don't like this? Does that mean it can't happen? Or can it happen even if U don't like it? Try to separate wish from reality. Author Dr.Edward Yardeni, chief economist/global investmnt strategist at Deutsche Banc-Alex Brown has come back from Y2K retirement & says: "Y2K summary: Most have eyes wide shut....My prediction for a global recession in 2000, at 70% odds remains...Stock mkt down 10-30% (that's 1-3000 DJIA pts). Recession major causes: breakdown in just-in-time manufacturing system, & in global oil industry. Y2K could cause another energy crisis." (I'm virtually sure of it--HS)
EY notes Y2K press coverage is childish, reports the good news press releases, make no comment, ask no questions. "Some frame Y2K as an all-or-nothing story. Either planes fall out of sky or nothing happens. None consider in between. Anyone who talks in between is lumped into the doomsday category & dismissed as far-fetched..Public is led to believe the casual assurances of the few means everyone will be ready. EY says: "Y2K will turn out to be the greatest story never told--- properly." Reporters squeeze answers out of politicians thought to be in hanky-panky, but never ask ONE question about any Y2K report by anyone in banks/govt/biz.
Jacquelyn Williams-Bridgers, US Inspector General,testified in Senate: Half of 161 nations assessed are reported at medium-to high- risk re Y2K failures in telecommunications, energy &/or transport. Her strong conclusion: "The global community is likely to experience varying degrees of Y2K-related failures in every sector, in every region, & at every economic level. The risk of disruption will likely extend to int'l trade, where a breakdown in any part of the global supply chain would have a serious impact on the US & world economies." Now, tell me dear readers, WHY doesn't TV & the press tell U this? My answer: the banks won't let them. Maybe U have a different answer?
As I reported before, the US State Dept will issue Y2K travel advice in Sept. 3 cheers to USSD for integrity in this regard. But it will shock a lot of people. The penny will finally drop. US govt Y2K topdog Koskinen says the US is considering evacuating US citizens from nations with widespread Y2K failures. Each ambassador will make that decision. More than a penny is dropping now. More like a silver dollar. I've only scratched the surface of all there is to report. What bothers me most is the nuclear power plant risks, a global risk, at least in the northern hemisphere. But I can't cover it all. And most people don't even want to hear it.
I'm optimistic that Y2K will paralyze most tax collecting computer systems to such an extent that govts will quickly switch from the income tax to a sales tax (the only fair system), which isn't computer complex & will allow govt to function, ie, bring in money, their 1st concern, 1 of the Holy Trinity of govts (the other 2: power & control).
Here's some more reality.
The problem is worldwide, systemic, interconnected.
"As a net is made up of a series of ties, so everything in this world is connected by a series of ties. If anyone thinks that the mesh of a net is an independent, isolated thing, he is mistaken...."
"The conveniences and comforts of humanity in general will be linked up by one mechanism, which will produce comforts and conveniences beyond human imagination. But the smallest mistake will bring the whole mechanism to a certain collapse. In this way the end of the world will be brought about."
Sufi Prophet Pir-o-Murshid Inayat Khan's prophecy made in 1922 (Complete Works, 1922 I, p. 158-9)
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 17, 1999.
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 17, 1999.
This just showed up:
Greenspan: Y2K Failures Negligible
Filed at 8:51 a.m. EDT
By The Associated Press
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan today characterized as viritually nonexistent the threat that the United States will suffer massive computer failures because of the Year 2000 date change.
But he cautioned that the economy could still be effected, depending on how many businesses and consumers alter their normal buying patterns because of unwarranted fears.
"The probability of a cascading of computer failures in mission- critical systems is now negligible, given the testing that has been done, the backup plans that are in place and the great adaptability and ingenuity of the American worker," Greenspan said in the keynote speech to a daylong conference of federal regulators on Year 2000 preparations.
The conference was convened to survey what has been done and what is left to do in getting the U.S. economy ready to handle the Year 2000 date change.
(I think the key here is "mission critical". Also, it's "blame the public" if problems happen...)
-- (email@example.com), September 17, 1999.
So he's done a de Jaeger... where are the honourable leaders, we've been sold out again and again...
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 17, 1999.
I watched the couple of minutes that CNBC carried before they cut it off with a "no problem" commentary by the talking head...
Greenspan had the perfect way to qualify his remarks and he used it a few times. If the problems aren't "systemic" then no big problem.
Well, last I check everything was interconnected and part of the same system...
Also, he raised "contingency plans" over and over along with demonstrating the obvious faith that he has in both corporations and their desire to stay in business spending and doing what ever is necessary to do so and in good ole fashion American ingenuity. He even mentions Apollo 13 and the NASA efforts to bring those three home using only parts available in the spacecraft.
Earth to Alan...not every organization can employ engineers and scientists of same kind of calibar as NASA. And didn't you see Deep Impact? Those scientists weren't nearly as lucky or as smart as the ones in Armageddon...and who's going to our Bruce Willis, staying on the rock when the nuclear bomb goes off?
-- Michael Taylor (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 17, 1999.
What a lying bastard. Of course he feels he has to say this to cover his ass. When things start crashing he's just going to say "It's irrational anti-exuberance due to fears of investors" because some investors did not take his all-knowing advice.
-- @ (@@@.@), September 17, 1999.
"I am Alan Greenspan, your ALMIGHTY GOD, I know all and see all, I control every single dollar on this planet because if I don't like what I see I'll change your interest rates. Do not worship false dollars before me! How dare you doubt me! I will take back all of your paper money and give you the 2 cents that it is worth. You will burn in Eternal Hell if you disobey me!"
-- @ (@@@.@), September 17, 1999.
Looks like Mr. Greenslip just bought us a span of more peaceful prep time. The Show goes on, stay on status quo please, stay in your seats, there will be no intermission ...
-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (email@example.com), September 17, 1999.
I just now (7am) Pacific time heard the sound bite being used from Greenspan...who would trust a man with a voice like that? Sheesh...spooky, but I digress...he was urging people not to allow panic to spur them to over buy goods, and hoard cash...and then made some inocuous final analogy that if all us good little kids follow those guidelines, the rollover would be like the fairytale of 'the dog that did not bark.'
Alan's been at the happy weed again. I have always found it interesting that Lord Greenspan was one of Ayn Rand's inner circle of disciples.
--She in the sheet needing her first cuppa coffee, bad.
-- Donna (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 17, 1999.
CNNfn's take on the story:
Greenspan: Y2K fears ease
-- Tim (email@example.com), September 17, 1999.