DISCOVERY CHANNEL's one hour Y2K special : awesome conclusions Flint and Hoff shouldn't like. Question: No impact upon the US ???greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread |
Discovery Channel started to broadcast yesterday (Sept.13) a full-hour Y2K special throughout Latin America, Spain, Florida, California and New York State targeted to a sizeable 330 million Spanish-speaking audience. Same program will continue to be broadcasted throughout Spanish-speaking countries in the coming days.It was awesome to see and hear about Latin America's state of Y2K un-readiness pretty much defined by both large company managers (exporters) and government officials as "approximately 70% will be 'done' by December 31, the rest will be fixed on failure with contingency plans". Only self-reported wishfull thinking was given as back-up.
The shaky voices and fearfull looks of those responsible for Y2K remediation (one individual briefly talked about 'the impossibility of testing') in Latin America speaks for itself. Mexico City's traffic lights are 'no problemo' because traffic lights have a back-up battery that lasts 8 hours! At least that's what the individual responsible for Mexico City's traffic lights system declared, while proudly smiling at the camera.
SMB's aren't even aware of Y2K, let alone having approached it with any strategy other than "time will tell". These SMB's are the larger companies' vendors, so supply chain management will be fun come 2000 These companies in turn export key raw materials (oil and minerals) and other resources to the US and Europe, sometimes as single source.
No one from the banking world dared to participate in this Discovery Channel's one-hour Y2K special. Boiler plate statements were the name of the game for government officials (sound familiar?) but Y2K analysts that participated in the program (including Gartner Group's)made it clear how vulnerable Latin America will be by 00:00-2000.
I wouldn't be surprised to find that the US State Dept. Report (to be issued by Sept.15?) includes serious Y2K un-readiness for Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, and Argentina.
Does any one in his/her right mind think that this will not have an impact upon the US?
Take care
-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), September 14, 1999
That the U.S. is IMMUNE from Y2K problems in other countries is the polly's second most cherished belief. (The polly's first most cherished belief is that the U.S. is itself going to be ready for Y2K and not encounter its own crippling Y2K problems.)
-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), September 14, 1999.
KOS,You said a Polly Cherished belief. Did you perhaps mean a Polly Cherri's belief? Just need to make sure you weren't referring to Dr. Cherri.
-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), September 14, 1999.
King of Spain,You are talking about 'educated' pollies, right King? 'Cause the regular garden-variety polly doesn't even get that far! Usual response is shoulder shrugging (why-to-what?), Bill Gates will fix it 'soon', my brother-in-law says it's all hype, I read an article in a magazine at my dentist's office that said that Al Gore knows all about Y2K so..., etc.
Actually, 'educated' pollies and us realists are on the very same page in comparison to 99% of population concerning preps. Let's not fool ourselves guys, 'educated' pollies that post on this forum usually have a hidden agenda and wouldn't be surprised if they are even better prepared than the average 'doomie'!!
Take care King, and NO, no way: I just won't mud wrestle either with you or your wife or whoever !
-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), September 14, 1999.
There's no such thing as an educated polly.
-- (its@coming.soon), September 14, 1999.
Does anyone know why there is such a disconnect when it comes to the so-many-problems-elsewhere-no-effect-here disbelief system? Did these people take No Common Sense 301 when they were in college or what? Is there some sort of pschological explanation? I have wondered about this ever since my neighbor said all she was concerned about was having the gas to get to work - and work is a food distribution to restaurants! If there is no gas, her job will essentially disappear and it won't matter whether she has gas or not. Thank goodness her hubby is a GI.
-- Valkyrie (anon@please.net), September 14, 1999.
Valkyrie,one explanation is that, intuitively, human beings are used to the 'Law of Proportionate Responses'. A plane crash is worse than a truck crash which is worse than a bycicle crash,... and so on and so forth. Maybe you can think of other (better?) examples.
But still the mental problem holds: two little zeros, two tiny spaces on a check, CANNOT mean that the whole international banking system goes down. Follow me ?
Take care
-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), September 14, 1999.
UK Info - BrazilThe following information has been collated by the British Embassy on the basis of information currently available locally. No guarantee is given as to its accuracy, and no liability can be accepted in respect of any actions taken or omitted to be taken, on the basis of the following information.
ENERGY
Brazil's critical infrastructures have individual compliance schemes being monitored by regulatory bodies and with progress co-ordinated by SEAP (the Information Technology Secretariat). Contingency plans have to be ready by September and they must show the risks and preventive measures being adopted.
The National Electric Power Agency (ANEEL) will monitor the 72 power concessionaires in Brazil to check preparations. A test carried out in mid-June by electricity generating and transmitting companies that supply power to most of the country, to check their protection mechanisms against a possible shut off of their computers on the turn of the century, was a success. According to ANEEL, all electric companies, including distributors, have until 30 June to test systems and carry out necessary corrections.
Petrobras is the primary provider of oil and gas in Brazil. 92% of the company's management systems have been adapted. The major multinationals in the country are spending considerable amounts of money on Y2K compliance. Disruption to supplies at petrol pumps is considered unlikely.
Brazil relies on nuclear power for approximately 1% of its energy requirements. Its only functioning nuclear reactor at Angra dos Reis in Rio de Janeiro State is powered by a fairly simple Westinghouse system. 60% of its operating systems are ready. Current occasional power provision problems will probably continue in 2000, but are unlikely to be associated with Y2K computer problems.
WATER
There is no national regulation in this sector and considerable variety of Y2K preparedness. However, disruption is considered more likely to be in quality of water than supply.
COMMUNICATIONS
Brazil's telecommunications were sold in 1998 to private firms/consortia, which will be investing billions of dollars over the next 5-10 years on upgrading systems. Finance for Y2K compliance is not therefore a problem, but time may be. The long distance carrier, Embratel (purchased by MCI), is engaged in an intensive effort to integrate its systems with MCI's and become Y2K compliant at the same time. Four major companies have been working on tests and corrective measures and making results and information known to smaller regional companies. Integrated tests and contingency plans are expected in June 1999. SEAP believe that all necessary conversions will be made in time.
TRANSPORT
All traffic control systems in Brazil are expected to be problem-free with a few exceptions, particularly some more remote areas of the Amazon. Brazilian civil aviation authorities are working on compliance in conjunction with the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). ICAO will publish a list of civil aviation authorities which are not Y2K compliant, in August 1999.
The national airport handling company (INFRAERO) is already largely Y2K compliant. Successful tests were conducted last year at international airports in Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Brasilia and at the domestic airport in Sao Paulo. The lessons learned were disseminated to other airports.
The national airline, Varig, has devoted considerable resources to Y2K and all major companies expect to be compliant by the third quarter of 1999.
No problems are foreseen with overground train networks but underground train systems are still being tested.
ECONOMIC
The banking and financial sectors appear to be well prepared. The Central Bank has its own compliance unit, which meets regularly with IT representatives of the Brazilian Banking Federation (FEBREBAN). Financial institutions regulated by the Central Bank carried out a wave of tests between March and May 1999. Initial indications were encouraging. A second wave of integrated tests, including the International Settlements in New York, was undertaken during June and July. This validated earlier positive findings on the banking industry's Y2K preparedness.
HEALTH
Private healthcare providers are at the implementation stage and should be close to Y2K compliance because they operate relatively modern client server systems. Public healthcare data systems are regulated by the Ministry of Health and should, in large part, be compliant later this year. The Brazilian social security administration (INSS), which processes public healthcare data, uses IBM mainframes from the 60s and 70s but these are undergoing substantial modifications, to ensure compliance. Work is scheduled to be finished by September 1999.
As far as the healthcare provision is concerned, private hospitals tend to be better prepared with generators and assurances of compliant equipment. There is much equipment in public healthcare on which it has been difficult to make an accurate assessment.
GOVERNMENT
The mainframe used by the Federal Police, including at immigration control ports of entry, is already Y2K compliant. The network connecting regional and municipal departments on an administrative basis is expected to be fully compliant by the end of June 1999, or September at the latest.
Inland revenue systems controlling exports are already compliant and work is in hand on the import system. A potential problem area is phyto-sanitary control.
-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), September 14, 1999.
I can understand a non teotwawki view but there is simply no way the bitr is reasonable.We stopped manufacturing things in this country because trade agreements let our corporate bigwigs pay third worlders 14 cents an hour.
Now we will suffer the consequences.
-- Forrest Covington (theforrest@mindspring.com), September 14, 1999.
From http://biz.yahoo.com/rf /990913/bb2.htmlMonday September 13, 6:30 pm Eastern Time
Y2K apathy a big problem in South America
PLS call +5411 4318-0668 with further questions, tks
By Andrew Hay
BUENOS AIRES, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Year 2000 computer problems are expected to lead to ``inconveniences'' rather than a ``collapse'' in Argentina, Chile and Uruguay, but apathy over the possibility of computer glitches is holding back the nations' Y2K plans, government officials said Monday.
With between 80 percent and 100 percent of their computer systems now Y2K compliant, South America's southern cone nations are setting up contingency plans for things that may go wrong once computers are forced to interpret data dated with the year 2000 and beyond.
Computer specialists around the world have been working to assure that older systems programmed to read only the last two digits of years can handle the changeover, recognizing ``00'' as 2000, not 1900.
The problem facing Argentina, Chile and Uruguay is poor understanding of the problem and a lack of interest in preparing for the problems that cannot be fixed.
While August Argentine government figures show the telecom sector 95 percent compliant, Energy around 80 percent compliant and most banks fully compliant, contingency plans - which have to be ready by late November are way behind. In the case of the energy sector they vary between 23 percent and 61 percent. Chile has done 77 percent of work towards Y2K preparation but is also stuck trying to get contingency plans out of the government and private sector.
``I don't see any real interest in this problem among the population,'' said Argentine Year 2000 coordinator Norberto Koolen speaking at a World Bank-sponsored Y2K forum in Buenos Aires. ``We don't have a culture of making contingency plans.''
With only 16 weeks before the Year 2000, Argentina, Chile and Uruguay are making last-ditch efforts to ensure government agencies and companies identify what could go wrong and detail plans to fix any glitches. The consequences could range from computers spewing out bad data to complete crashes of systems controlling utilities or air-traffic control systems.
``We don't see a collapse,'' said Uruguayan government Y2K coordinator Juan Mussio, ``It's possible, though, we'll see some inconveniences.''
Both Argentina and Chile expect to each spend $1.5 billion on fixing the Year 2000 problem, both putting around $150 million toward state projects, even though Chile's economy is about a fourth of the size of Argentina's.
In the case of Argentina, Koolen said the state had already spent about 60 to 70 percent of its budget, and would spend about 80 percent before 2000 and around 20 percent after the date change.
In Argentina, the sectors that will face most problems are likely to be those of small and medium-sized business and health care. In the case of health care, finding, checking and in some cases fixing microchips embedded in equipment was often like trying to find ``a needle in a haystack,'' Koolen said.
With areas of these sectors adopting a ``wait and see'' attitude to Y2K, it is critical they have contingency plans for possible glithces. ``They're just not used to making the sort of detailed check lists necessary,'' Koolen said.
Some provincial Argentine energy companies may not be fully compliant but at least 80 percent of the nation's electricity capacity is assured of being available Jan. 1 -- a time when demand, at its highest, only reaches 60 percent, Koolen said.
Chilean Y2K coordinator Aldo Signorelli said it was crucial for companies and populations to understand services will function so long as this ``minimum level'' of capacity remains, even amid possible failures.
Civilian air-traffic control and radar systems run by the Argentine air force have yet to reach full compliance, Koolen said, although other operations at Argentina's principal airports are Y2K ready.
In the United States and Europe, Y2K fears have subsided as governments and companies have reported switching millions of computers to Year 2000 dates without failures. Koolen said Argentines have been less aware of this process and the task facing the nation was to educate people on the problem without alarming them.
-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), September 14, 1999.
Great work Hoffy! Keep the sheeple snoozing a while longer with "good news" about Y2K.
-- Worried (worried@nervous.com), September 14, 1999.
I love Hoff but I've never seen a more trusting pollyanna in my life.I'd hate to see how he debunks the Easter Bunny, tooth fairy and Santa Claus around the house......
-- lisa (lisa@work.now), September 14, 1999.
UK Info - MexicoThe following information has been collated by the British Embassy Mexico City on the basis of information imparted by Mexican Coordinating Commission on Y2K Convergence, the Auditing and Administrative Development Ministry (Secodam) and the Central Bank. No guarantee is given as to its accuracy, and no liability can be accepted in respect of any actions taken, or omitted to be taken, on the basis of the following information.
GENERAL
In many sectors, a high degree of state participation is making central planning and coordination of conversion to millennium compliance more straightforward than in countries where there are large numbers of utilities and suppliers. For embedded technology in particular, Mexican operators are relying on advice from international contractors. There is close cooperation with US and Canadian counterparts in several fields, and Mexico is sharing its experiences with other countries in the region. In addition to what follows, contingency plans are being or have been drawn up for critical mission systems in all areas.
ENERGY
Conversion equipment has been fitted throughout the sector so that all IT systems are now believed to be compliant.
Electricity
There are only two electricity distributors, Luz y Fuerza and CFE. Real time contingency tests for distribution systems were successfully completed late last year. A further test simulating the effect of telecoms failure on the energy sector will be conducted in conjunction with a US counterpart in September.
Oil and Gas
There is one oil producer and distributor, Pemex, and only a handful of gas distributors. Work is in progress. Completion of work on all critical systems and 95pc of other systems is expected by September.
Nuclear power
Only 3pc of all energy supplies. Tests were started in July. Completion expected by November.
WATER
The CNA manages all aspects in conjunction with local distributors. Distribution outside Mexico City does not involve the use of computers. For Mexico City, work has been completed and no problems are foreseen.
COMMUNICATIONS
Each individual entity is working on its own GPS systems.
Telephones
Telmex own the whole network (competing service providers use Telmex infrastructure). The company has completed its own preparations and expects no problems. However, you may exist in this sector due to the complexity of necessary preparations.
Satellites
Satmex is working closely with US counterparts and foresees no problems. A leading international manufacturer has concluded that Mexican satellites should have no Y2K related problems.
Almost all is manual. Some minor corrections have been made.
TRANSPORT
Air
The Mexican organisation responsible, ASA, is receiving help from IATA and does not foresee problems.
The organisation responsible, Seneam, is modifying radars and software with the help of international manufacturers. Some problems remain, but Seneam have had these analysed and report 92pc progress. 4 national airlines have participated successfully in publicly announced real time tests. The authorities do not anticipate manual flying, though procedures do exist if required. They expect Airports to be functioning at close to normal capacity effectively on 1 January. IATA is considering designating several Mexican airports as safe alternatives to some airports in Central America.
Immigration and Customs
Immigration facilities are mainly manually operated. No problems foreseen. Tests have been successfully completed on Customs facilities.
Rail
Relatively little advanced technology in use. No problems foreseen with central traffic control system.
Ports
Relatively little advanced technology in use. Where automated, tests are being implemented and no problems are foreseen.
Highways
The network of modern long distance toll motorways is privately administered. Tests are underway and no major problems are foreseen. Most roads are government-owned, and no problems are foreseen with these.
ECONOMIC
The Trade Ministry (Secofi) operates a helpline in conjunction with the Businessmens' Coordination Council (CCE) and has organised an extensive awareness programme. Major industrial companies are thought to be advanced in their preparations, but many SMEs (under 100 employees) are believed to have taken few steps and coordination is difficult. The National Statistical Office (Inegi) believes that few SMEs will be badly affected as they rely little on computers other than standard packages for administrative purposes. The supply-chain management of many larger and better prepared firms includes working alongside SME suppliers to keep problems to a minimum.
Tax
The Inland Revenue Service (SAT) started preparations in 1996 with the introduction of new millennium-compliant computers. Problems are not foreseen with other IT equipment and preparations have been completed.
Import/Export
The Foreign Trade Development Bank (Bancomext) and Customs have completed their modification programmes.
FINANCIAL
The Central Bank completed all internal checks by December 1998 and has now finished external checks of banks and financial institutions. Smaller financial institutions are causing slight difficulties, but the Central Bank believes that the financial sector, including money markets and the stock exchange, will be ready in time. This view is shared by several international consultants. A residual risk may exist due to the sectors reliance on the communications network.
The main problem is likely to occur if there is a panic rush on the banks to withdraw money. The Central Bank is therefore working in conjunction with US and Canadian Central Banks to increase the amount of notes and coins in circulation during a two week period in late December and early January. The Central Bank has participated in simulations organised by the Bank of International Settlements.
HEALTH AND SOCIAL SECURITY
Those involved, the two state providers of health care (IMSS and ISSSTE), the Health Ministry and a small private sector, are all working on modifications. Only 6pc of all state appliances are believed to be sensitive to date-change problems. While a failure of technology used in administration could affect services, no machines with embedded technology in the public sector are thought capable of adversely affecting a patient's health. Secodam believe that there is no serious threat to human life.
Social Security - both private and public fund managers have completed tests. No problems are expected.
Further information may be obtained direct from the following websites:
Y2K National Conversion Commission: www.y2k.gob.mx
Administrative Reform Ministry: www.secodam.gob.mx
Trade Ministry: www.secofi.gob.mx
National Statistical Office: www.inegi.gob.mx
Central Bank: www.banxico.org.mx
-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), September 14, 1999.
Why this "Hoffmeister" guy spends so much time here trying to convince us that Y2K is no big deal is a mystery to me.
-- Worried (worried@nervous.com), September 14, 1999.
Everybody wants to rule the world. Some people, take your pick; eco- freaks, satan freaks, techno freaks, etc. think they can turn a Y2K blow out to their advantage, and carve out their own little weird-ass kingdom. Some people are playing both sides against the middle to fuck up the other guy, so theys can grab a bigger hunk of the pie for themselves after the roll-over.
-- Mr. Blond (favors@f/f.yum), September 14, 1999.
So, worried and blondie--let me get this straight. What you're complaining about is that Hoff posted something you don't want to hear because it's not scary enough? GREAT! If you only hear one side, you won't have to think any more, I guess. So why bother reading anything here, if you've already got everything figured out?Al
-- Al K. Lloyd (all@ready.now), September 14, 1999.
Worried, maybe Hoff is just trying to give you additional data, so you could learn something. But that's foolish on his part, we all know that people on this forum (very very intelligent by far) can not learn anything at all. They are way too smart to take in any additional information.BTW, look up the meaning of the word forum. That may answer your own question, you dummy.
-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), September 14, 1999.
Maria, you're so sensitive.
-- lisa (lisa@work.now), September 14, 1999.
Maria, you and Hoffy make such a great team!
-- Worried (worried@nervous.com), September 14, 1999.
Hoffy=good cop, Marie=bad cop?
-- Amused (amused@laughing.com), September 14, 1999.
LOL Lisa! Good one.Was hoping for a transcript... no such luck...
Discovery Channel Online...
http://www.discovery.com/Search Discovery
http:// www.discovery.com/search/search.htmlMaybe youll have better luck, George.
Diane
-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), September 14, 1999.
REPEAT UNTIL # Hoffmeister_posts=0;
display "";
END;
-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), September 14, 1999.
Hoffy you info indicates that Mexico (for one) is better off than the US is currently!!! Thanks, I now know where to go come next year. I just need to figure out how long it'll take to walk there....LOL *^)
-- Brent James Bushardt (brentj@webt.com), September 14, 1999.
US Info - VenezuelaY2K INFORMATION: As a consequence of the so-called Y2K "bug," on or about January 1, 2000, some automated systems throughout the world may experience problems, including unpredictable system malfunctions. In countries that are not prepared, the Y2K problem could affect financial services, utilities, health services, telecommunications, energy, transportation and other vital services. U.S. citizens who are traveling to any country during this time period should be aware of the potential for the disruption of normal medical services. Travelers with special medical needs should consult with their personal physician and take appropriate precautions. While travelers do not necessarily need to alter their travel plans, being informed and prepared for possible disruptions is prudent.
Venezuela is reliant on computerized systems and is aware of the potential impact of Y2K. Venezuela appears to be somewhat prepared to deal with the Y2K problem and is concentrating its efforts on contingency planning. In Venezuela, it appears that there is a moderate risk of potential disruption in the electric power sector, which could have implications for all other local sectors. U.S. citizens traveling to or residing in Venezuela in late 1999 or early 2000 should be aware of potential difficulties.
It is difficult to predict the severity or duration of Y2K-related disruptions. U.S. citizens in Venezuela should take practical precautions, anticipate the potential for disruption to their daily activities, and be prepared to cope with the impact of such disruptions. Information about personal preparedness and Y2K is available in the Department of State worldwide Public Announcement of July 26, 1999 which is accessible on the Department of State, Bureau of Consular Affairs home page at http://travel.state.gov/y2kca.html.
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Y2K INFORMATION: As a consequence of the so-called Y2K "bug," on or about January 1, 2000, some automated systems throughout the world may experience problems, including unpredictable system malfunctions. In countries that are not prepared, the Y2K problem could affect financial services, utilities, health services, telecommunications, energy, transportation and other vital services. U.S. citizens who are traveling to any country during this time period should be aware of the potential for the disruption of normal medical services. Travelers with special medical needs should consult with their personal physician and take appropriate precautions. While travelers do not necessarily need to alter their travel plans, being informed and prepared for possible disruptions is prudent.
Argentina is not heavily reliant on computerized systems and is working with the international community to minimize any impact as a result of Y2K. The government established a Y2K commission in August of 1997 that has helped design and evaluate Y2K solutions for the countrys social and economic infrastructure. Argentina continues remediation efforts and contingency planning, and appears to be prepared to deal with the Y2K problem. In Argentina, it appears that there is a low risk of potential disruptions in such key sectors as banking and finance, telecommunications, and electric power. Disruptions may occur in hospital services, which are provided at the provincial and municipal levels where Y2K preparedness is not as advanced, although the federal government is working with the local governments to achieve Y2K compliance. U.S. citizens traveling to or residing in Argentina in late 1999 or early 2000 should be aware of potential difficulties.
It is difficult to predict the severity or duration of Y2K-related disruptions. U.S. citizens in Argentina should take practical precautions, anticipate the potential for disruption to their daily activities, and be prepared to cope with the impact of such disruptions. Information about personal preparedness and Y2K is available in the Department of State Worldwide Public Announcement of July 26, 1999 which is accessible on the Department of State, Bureau of Consular Affairs home page at http://travel.state.gov/y2kca.html.
Aviation and Y2K: The U.S. Department of Transportation is heading an international year 2000 civil aviation evaluation process to review information on Y2K readiness in aviation based on reports to the International Civil Aviation Organization and other available sources. The Federal Aviation Administration is working with the industry and its international partners to encourage sharing of Y2K readiness and contingency planning information so that air carriers will be able to make appropriate decisions. Please consult your airline about contingency plans in the event of unforeseen Y2K-related delays, cancellations, or disruptions. Please see the Department of Transportation Y2K home page at http://www.dot.gov/fly2k for updated information on Y2K and aviation issues.
As January 1, 2000 draws nearer, we will provide updated information available to us about important Y2K issues in Argentina on the Consular Affairs home page at http://travel.state.gov/y2kca.html. In addition, please monitor the home page of the U.S. Embassy in Buenos Aires, Argentina at http://www.usia.gov/posts/baires_embassy for additional updates.
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Y2K INFORMATION: As a consequence of the so-called Y2K "bug," on or about January 1, 2000, some automated systems throughout the world may experience problems, including unpredictable system malfunctions. In countries that are not prepared, the Y2K problem could affect financial services, utilities, health services, telecommunications, energy, transportation and other vital services. U.S. citizens who are traveling to any country during this time period should be aware of the potential for the disruption of normal medical services. Travelers with special medical needs should consult with their personal physician and take appropriate precautions. While travelers do not necessarily need to alter their travel plans, being informed and prepared for possible disruptions is prudent.
Brazil is working to minimize the impact of Y2K and is also cooperating with the international community on Y2K issues. Efforts in major public agencies and private firms in Brazil are apparent, especially in the private sector. However, many local governments and small/medium sized businesses are lagging. Brazil appears to be generally prepared to deal with the Y2K problem. Nonetheless, at the present time it appears that there is a risk for potentially moderate but largely isolated disruptions in telecommunications, electricity, the health sector, and possibly financial services. U.S. citizens traveling to or residing in Brazil in late 1999 or early 2000 should be aware of potential difficulties.
It is difficult to predict the severity or duration of Y2K-related disruptions. U.S. citizens in Brazil should take practical precautions, anticipate the potential for disruption to their daily activities, and be prepared to cope with the impact of such disruptions. Information about personal preparedness and Y2K is available in the Department of State Worldwide Public Announcement of July 26, 1999 which is accessible on the Department of State, Bureau of Consular Affairs home page at http://travel.state.gov/y2kca.html.
Aviation and Y2K: The U.S. Department of Transportation is heading an international Year 2000 civil aviation evaluation process to review information on Y2K readiness in aviation based on reports to the International Civil Aviation Organization and other available sources. The Federal Aviation Administration is working with the industry and its international partners to encourage sharing of Y2K readiness and contingency planning information so that air carriers will be able to make appropriate decisions. Please consult your airline about contingency plans in the event of unforeseen Y2K-related delays, cancellations, or disruptions. Please see the Department of Transportation Y2K home page at http://www.dot.gov/fly2k for updated information on Y2K and aviation issues.
As January 1, 2000 draws nearer, we will provide updated information available to us about important Y2K issues in Brazil on the Consular Affairs home page at http://travel.state.gov/y2kca.html. For a local view, those interested may consult the Brazilian national Y2K web site (available in the Portuguese language), which is http.//www.a2000.gov.br. At this web site, one may find the latest local news and links to the main sectors concerned with the strategies to minimize the potential disruptions related to the Y2K phenomenon. Another Brazilian site with Y2K information is http://www.mare.gov.br/a2000/.
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Y2K INFORMATION: As a consequence of the so-called Y2K bug, on or about January 1, 2000, some automated systems throughout the world may experience problems, including unpredictable system malfunctions. In countries that are not prepared, the Y2K problem could affect financial services, utilities, health services, telecommunications, energy, transportation and other vital services. U.S. citizens who are traveling to any country during this time period should be aware of the potential for the disruption of normal medical services. Travelers with special medical needs should consult with their personal physician and take appropriate precautions. While travelers do not necessarily need to alter their travel plans, being informed and prepared for possible disruptions is prudent.
Mexico, increasingly reliant on computerized systems, is working with the international community to minimize any impact as a result of Y2K. Mexico appears to be prepared to deal with the Y2K problem. Mexico's general Y2K awareness is high. The Mexican Government formed a Year 2000 National Conversion Commission in June 1998 to oversee Y2K problem remediation and contingency planning. The Commission has made extensive efforts to build awareness and expedite and supervise remediation in both private and public sectors. The Y2K National Conversion Commission has effectively engaged national Y2K coordinators from the U.S., Canada and other countries.
Mexicos systematic approach to Y2K remediation was adopted by the World Bank as a model for other countries seeking assistance in dealing with the millenium bug. In Mexico, it appears there is a low risk of potential Y2K disruptions in key sectors. Adequate manual overrides exist in computerized sectors, such as electricity and water. Mexico could experience localized Y2K problems in some services, such as the highly-automated communications sector. U.S. citizens traveling to or residing in Mexico in late 1999 or early 2000 should be aware of potential difficulties.
It is difficult to predict the severity or duration of Y2K-related disruptions. U.S. citizens in Mexico should take practical precautions, anticipate the potential for disruption to their daily activities, and be prepared to cope with the impact of such disruptions. Information about personal preparedness and Y2K is available in the Department of State Worldwide Public Announcement of July 26, 1999, which is accessible on the Department of State Bureau of Consular Affairs home page at http://travel.state.gov/y2kca.html.
Aviation and Y2K: The U.S. Department of Transportation is heading an international year 2000 civil aviation evaluation process to review information on Y2K readiness in aviation based on reports to the International Civil Aviation Organization and other available sources. The Federal Aviation Administration is working with the industry and its international partners to encourage sharing of Y2K readiness and contingency planning information so that air carriers will be able to make appropriate decisions. Consult your airline about contingency plans in the event of unforeseen Y2K-related delays, cancellations, or disruptions. See the Department of Transportation Y2K home page at http://www.dot.gov/fly2K for updated information on Y2K and aviation issues.
-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), September 14, 1999.
Dear Hoffmeister/SAPmeister:As you seem to be keenly interested in supporting what our common friend Flint has defined as the "Departments of Applied Nepotism" of the Americas, I suggest that ASAP you try to get a clue of what those self-reported, boiler-plate Y2K readiness percentages mean around this part of the world.
Hoff, you are hanging on a limb of a tree you never climbed before. You no nothing of this part of the world, otherwise as serious and competent individual that you are, you wouldn't dare post what you are posting. Literally and conceptually, you've never been here Hoff.
Dear wordsmith Flint:
Your worse fears have been confirmed even by the wishfull thinking data presented by Venezuelan authorities. Fortunately though, Saudia Arabia (your second concern) is holding a Y2K awareness meeting with other oil-exporting countries of the region.
Things look just as you feared Flint, so keep your powder dry and your ass close to the ground.
Take care
-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), September 14, 1999.
Well, glad to see someone can make accurate predictions.From last night:
http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001O 58
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So you keep doing what you're supposed to Hoff ! I can't help it !!I'm just wondering what you'll say to us tomorrow Hoffy, after the US State Dept. issues its status on foreign countries. I'm sure you'll think of something, right?
-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), September 13, 1999.George:Let me guess. Either the State Department says other countries are in bad shape, (in which case they're in bad shape), or they say other countries are actually pretty good, (in which case we have proof the government lies and other countries are STILL in bad shape). We been around this block 1,000 times by now, you know.
Also, make sure you know what the State Department is really talking about. I'm quite concerned about, say, the oil port loading equipment in Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. I really don't care if the Department of Applied Nepotism is compliant in either country.
So far, the only announcement has been a list of 35 countries that never answered our questionnaire, rather than those who at least returned it. Which tells us nothing, so we'll see who uses this nothing to further which propaganda purposes. Don't miss your big chance, George.
-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), September 13, 1999.----------------------
-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), September 14, 1999.
Hoffmeister, did anyone ever tell you that you might be a wee bit GULLIBLE???!!!!!!!!! What the hell do you think these stupid foreign countries are going to say? "Nope, we never worried about it. Guess you shy American school teachers will have to go someplace else for coconuts and wild sex orgies."
This is why INDEPENDENT reporting is so valuable!!! Because sometimes people DO NOT TELL THE TRUTH. Or, to put it another way, THEY LIE. (You know, like the FA-- ... never mind, forget it.) Especially when they have EVERY REASON to lie and NO REASON to tell the truth!!! (You can even ask "all governments are amoral" Flint about that one.)
Gawd!
-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), September 14, 1999.
Sorry, Your Highness. Was just posting the information George appeared to be looking forward to last night.Whether or not I take at face value surveys and assessments is not the point. They do provide pieces of information that need to be considered. Unless, of course, the conclusion has already been made.
As for an overall assessment? The UK and US State Department, or George? Yep, pretty much a toss-up.
-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), September 14, 1999.
King, maybe the explanation is simpler: a hidden agenda. Bingo !!Hoff and Flint wouldn't know what a "curro" is even if it bit their cute asses. And maybe Flint and Hoff should learn what "diego" means. (NO, it's not a name you dumbells!). But they wouldn't know, they've never been there. So they should just crawl back into the peanut butter and jelly sandwiches they live in and keep their big mouths shut about stuff they shouldn't even whisper about.
But maybe its their 24 x 7 x 365 responsibilities that force them to try to convince as many lurkers as possible while they can.
How sad
-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), September 14, 1999.
"Diego"?Doesn't it go before the "B"?
-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), September 14, 1999.
Dear Hoffmeister/SAPmeister:The U.K. Embassy 'collated' reports are indeed a funny(?) obsolete post at this late stage of the y2k end-game. Quote: "Integrated testing and contingency plans to be concluded by JUNE 1999". Bbwwahhhahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaaaaa!!
Hoffy, you dare to address Y2K and you don't even know what date it is TODAY ??!!! Excuse me again... Bbwwaahahahahahahahahaaaaaaahahaaa! Do you wish to collate that we are now in SEPTEMBER !!!! (Hoff, if you don't improve soon you might be fired, think about it)
And the US reports you post are certainly encouraging Hoff, particularly taking into account the credibility of the sources, of which you know NOTHING about my dear SAPmeister. By the way, didn't you and your wifey get credited for a one-way trip to the South Atlantic Falkland Islands on Dec. 31 ??? You'll surely learn, I betcha!
-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), September 14, 1999.
Yes, George, I'm absolutely positive that you, and you alone, know the "true" story on all these countries.By the way, resorting to the "Milne" laugh doesn't become you. Stick to the "hidden agenda" stuff. I think it works better for you.
On the tickets, it was Cancun. And no, Andy never coughed up the resort or the tickets...
-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), September 14, 1999.
Why does this thread remind me so much of Marc's security cop concerned thread? Oh...NOBODY else has been there, but MY 18 hours of computer science classes prove that...George, you have absolutely NO evidence that others on this forum haven't spent extensive time in Latin America. Until you have that evidence, I'd suggest that you refrain from considering yourself the "insider" on these countries. You might also explore the "Discovery" channel when you have a chance.
-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), September 14, 1999.
Dear Hoffmeister/SAPmeister:(1) No, dead wrong again. It's not me alone. It's really millions of people that know the true story about these countries. The problem is that you are not one of them. You sound like one smartalec urban gringo trying to explain a 12 year-old estancia boy from the Pampas how he should throw his "boleadoras". You would end up counter- spinning yourself right to the middle of the manure pile (I can just hear you saying "Hell George, it's 'bolas', not 'boleadoras'! How sad again)
(2) Dead wrong again Hoffy, it's never "Diego" for Crissake, it's "diego" !! The only "Diego" South of the Rmo Grande is Maradonna (with double 'n' Hoff, otherwise it would be misinterpreted again. BTW, do you even know what Maradonna's role has been in local politics?) But you wouldn't know the difference between Buenos Aires and Buenas Noches so what the hell.
(3) Dead wrong a third time, it was the Falklands Islands 'cause we agreed that the local English speaking kelpers would suit you better than the deep-eyed Mayan aborigines you might run into in Canczn. BTW Hoff, 'Canczn' carries accent on the "z", O.Kay?
Hoff, do yourself a favor: just keep your mouth shut this time will ya?
-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), September 14, 1999.
"How sad"Took the words right out of my mouth, George.
PS: What I agreed to was Cancun (sorry, don't feel like digging up the accented u. Live with it). I'll take my chances with the "deep-eyed Mayan aborigines", as long as I can get drinks on the beach at 10:00 AM.
-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), September 14, 1999.
Anita dear, I'm not saying and have never said that "others" on this forum could not be knowledgeable about Y2K in Latin America. Surely they might be, yes indeed. But not Hoffy.So I'm saying that Hoffmeister/SAPmeister is making a fool of himself by posting what he is posting about Latin America simply because he couldn't tell a "peronista" from a "pelotudo", which happens to be a most pertinent differentiation under current political circumstances.
Could you?
-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), September 14, 1999.
Certainly glad to hear that you are willing to take your chances with the deep-eyed Mayan aborigines Hoff, 'cause if Y2K hits Mexico as bad as it probably will, you'll have your drinks served by the beach at 10:00 AM allright, but up your nose, if your know whatta I mean !I can't believe how hard and how far you can go Hoff trying to make lurkers believe that South American, self-reported, unvalidated (most probably un-signed!!) boiler-plate Y2K readiness percentages are to be taken as solid data upon which we should all base our personal and national strategy for approaching Y2K... It's either your gullibility, your ignorance, or your hidden agenda (or maybe all three?)
-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), September 15, 1999.
Hey everybody!Please check out Big Dog's new thread:
" The simplicty of Y2K: Lying "
Makes sense?
-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), September 15, 1999.
Way to go, George!!! Hoffy tries hard to reassure people about Y2K, but he really fell on his face this time. You made him look like a total idiot. Thanks for the laughs!
-- Amused (amused@laughing.com), September 15, 1999.
If I understand George correctly, his main problem seems to be summed up here:So I'm saying that Hoffmeister/SAPmeister is making a fool of himself by posting what he is posting about Latin America simply because he couldn't tell a "peronista" from a "pelotudo", which happens to be a most pertinent differentiation under current political circumstances.
Patently obvious is that George offers absolutely no actual information or backup, "verifiable" or just plain "rumors", to refute any of the information in these reports.
No, George's only point is I make a fool of myself by posting assessments made by the UK, and the US, because I "dont' speak the language", and haven't "been there".
A fairly interesting stance. Using this logic, no one is apparently qualified to post information outside of areas they specifically are involved in, much less try and make a judgement as to what that information means.
Using this logic, people throughout this board have made fools of themselves repeatedly. Anyone not directly involved in Electric Utilities, for example, should not makes a "fool" of himself by posting information on the utilities.
What's even more interesting, is that George, with his "insider" experience and vast "understanding" of how things work, apparently didn't see this coming. Two nights ago, George was actually citing these upcoming assessments to support his points.
Now, what changed in the 24 or so hours between the time George was citing these upcoming assessments, assessments George was apparently ready to accept as information, and the time George was claiming I make a fool of myself for even posting them for review?
Did the "political circumstances" which George understands because he knows the difference between a "peronista" and a "pelotudo", change?
Did the "credibility of the sources", of which I "know NOTHING", change?
Somehow, I doubt it. What "changed", was the fact that the assessments didn't agree with George's beliefs. Thus, they autmatically are to be dismissed, indeed, not even referenced.
Somehow, I doubt that any of this would have been a problem had the assessments included dire statements of imminent doom. In fact, my guess is George would either have been posting them himself, or dutifully adding his agreement on other threads.
-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), September 15, 1999.
Listen Hoffmeister/SAPmeister, you sound far less intelligent than what you are supposed to be: your UK and US posts prove MY point Hoff, not YOURS !!Read them, understand (which you obviously can't) what they are saying, who they are talking about, where the back-up comes from, etc., etc.
Hoff: It's all SOUTH AMERICAN, self-reported, absolutely un- validated, dreamed-up, etc., etc. latino CRAP. O.Kay?? Maybe it's pretty much the same in the US. Maybe you would know better than me concerning the US, would you? Still, around the countries of the Latin American region it's not that I'm an expert Hoff, it's millions that know what I'm saying. That's why they've had more coup d'etat and military juntas than hairs in your head, that's why 5000% (five thousand) hyperinflations were not uncommon not that long ago, etc., etc. Lying and faking facades is a National pastime around here
Hoffy dear: Your US Report talks about the possibility of isolated disruptions in Brazil's banking system, right? Wrong, because banks only exist in important places around in Brazil, the rest is cash, in which case the Real would suffer a far greater run that it took with the Tequila effect, because interest rates are down (yes, down) to 30% but if they go back to the 60% they were six months ago Brazil's internal debt (50% of GDP!!) is unpayable right NOW, today. Who says that, me? No, Hoff, Pedro Malan, a gentleman you wouldn't know who happens to be Minister of Economy of Brazil while Fernando Henrique's popularity is down to 12% and unemployment close to 20%. Meanwhile Argentina, Brazil's Customs Union trade partner in Mercosur would go through same old, same old only a month away from elections which will allow the opposition to step in power by December 10, with Y2K on it's spanking lap, with remediation not even attempted in many key areas (FOF) and testing not done because 'contingency plans'(which don't exist) would substitute for it, with SMB's not even aware etc., etc. Enough Hoff?
-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), September 15, 1999.
So now, these reports are information that support your points?Which is it, George? I posted these as information, assessments conducted by the UK, and US. You spent all yesterday calling me a "fool" for even daring to post these. But now they support you?
Of course, you make sure to include the obligatory claim they are "SOUTH AMERICAN, self-reported, absolutely un- validated, dreamed-up, etc., etc. latino CRAP". Just to be sure to cover your bases.
Along with the claims of "remediation not even attempted in many key areas (FOF) and testing not done because 'contingency plans'(which don't exist) would substitute for it, with SMB's not even aware, etc, etc". All with such substantial backup.
Again, George, what changed from two nights ago, when you were looking forward to these assessments?
Did any of these political realities change in the meantime? Did the national pasttime of "lying and faking facades" occur overnight?
Would you have been so adamant that these reports be completely ignored (or not, apparently), had they made dire claims that massive failures were expected?
No, I think not. This selective acceptance of information is a well-worn tactic here. Sources are valid, until the information doesn't "fit" the conclusions already derived. They then become "deceits", and "lies".
-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), September 15, 1999.
Actually, now that the reports are "up" and out... it's the State Department that looks pretty foolish, IMHO.As for Hoffy, well... he's just "himself" as usual.
Diane
-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), September 15, 1999.
Hoff --"Selective acceptance of information" is otherwise known as analysis and judgment. You do it. George does it. Everyone does it. Stop making it sound so bizarre. George has his reasons for analysis, which are primarily based on his long, real-world experience in Latin America. Fine. Why don't you let it drop and we'll see whether his experience trumps your "selective acceptance" of the Gartner Group data?
BTW, are you now working for the Meta Group (how did your paid trial with them go?) or the Gartner Group? Nothing wrong with that, it's just a job, but inquiring minds want to know.
-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), September 15, 1999.
Nope. Meta Group never came up with the $$$.As for George, I'd generally agree that he probably does have experience that would be useful in assessing parts of the international situation.
Unfortunately, all I've actually seen is strident posts, filled with every Y2k "doomer" truism available. That's not analysis.
The point about "selective acceptance", though, is still valid. George demonstrates quite well here that the "acceptance" is based on preformed conclusions. George was citing these reports prior to their release; but then, because the actual contents did not match his preformed conclusions, they are to be ignored.
I've readily admitted I have no direct knowledge on the international status. In my opinion, one has to consider all available information. That includes Gartner Group, US State Department, the UK, and others. It also includes people who have direct knowledge of some aspects. To conclude, however, that one should completely ignore assessments made by these other sources, based solely on his experiences, is the same as if I were to say you can ignore all other assessments of Fortune 500 companies, because I have worked with a half-dozen or so, and thus know the true status of all these companies. It wouldn't wash for me; it doesn't wash for George.
-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), September 15, 1999.
Hoffy, I'll cool down. Let's cool down.Now then, I 'cited' (as you say) the US State Dept. Reports the day before knowing perfectly well that they would just re-print the un- signed, un-validated, etc., official Latino crap, which is possibly just as crappy as the Anglo-Saxon crap, but you would know much more about that than myself, I assume.
So I agree with Diane Squire in that there is more than one fool around here: the Latino fools that lie and boiler-plate about y2k and the US fools that re-print the crap without questioning.
How do I know what I know? I'd rather not tell you Hoff, for professional reasons. If you insist real hard, I would eventually end up telling you some (I guess) but I'd rather not. It could probably harm me. Don't ask for details. If it's that important to you, I'll try to find an oblique way to reveal my sources. For the time being suffice to say that I am an op-ed columnist for Latin American economics and trade affairs in the Wall Street Journal New York, El Economista, El Cronista, Ambito Financiero, etc., which makes me the most widely published Y2K columnist in the Spanish language and the most widely published Y2K columnist South of the Equator, for what it might be worth. Please don't force me to reveal more. Probably I've said more than what I should have already. And around this part of the world that means staking your life, including family. I've been there.
Take care Hoff, and please don't be gullible.
-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), September 15, 1999.
By the way Hoff, I never said that you "should ignore assessments from all other sources". I didn't even suggest it. All I can say is my honest opinion, just like anybody else, for what it might be worth.I have known all too well, been directly involved, first first hand, in the real trenches of this region of the world for the past 50 years. Y2K seems to be its natural enemy, because planning and preventing is not part of the culture. Improvisation ? Yes, indeed. A rare mix of sweet laughs and intelligent resentment? You bet. But Y2K doesn't care about all of this, it will just swiftly sweep up all those who didn't care, lied or simply ignored it. And because of this, Y2K will also (and you have a hard time grasping the interconnectedness) bite back US interests, way of life, quality of life, directly or indirectly, be it through foreign debt, oil, key natural resources and other essential supply line goods and services, and the markets, of course.
Take care
-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), September 15, 1999.
A couple of people have e-mailed me privately asking what my take is on US spin, lying, etc.I should assume that it is just as bad as in Latin America, although I don't have the first hand evidence that I have for L.A. In the US I find that spin is alive and kicking. The FAA would be a good example. The SSA could be the next example (I hope that you guys already know that it is not 'compliant' as Clinton once claimed).
Take care
-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), September 15, 1999.