All the talk about preparing for Y2K as if preparing for a hurricane has me thinking tonight. The talk of preparation by the news media is classic Y2K. I live on the coast of east central Florida in Daytona Beach and I took some time to tour a few stores. There isnt a battery to be found. Candles, generators, oil lamps are either sold out or are few and far between. With the threat to utilities, water is at a premium. The news media is saying "FILL the gas tank in your car", stations might be open but may not be able to pump gas. Interesting it's not "make sure your gas tank is HALF full".

Unrelated to utilities: Hope this is ok, but I can't help but to think of you all out there during this time.

An interesting detail I noticed regarding food at a local Publix Supermarket. Zero spam (yes Cory, keep stocking), tuna, vienna sausages and of all things, Franco American canned spaghetti/raveoli. Bread? 90% gone. Ketchup minimal, but plenty of mustard. Paper plates? Gone. Toilet paper? Hmmmm, only about 50% gone. Cat litter gone. Interesting that the cat and dog food aisle was rather full except for Pedigree Dog Food section which had 1 can remaining.

Didnt check at local pharmacies, but it must have been an interestng day for them. The news media is really hyping the fact that everyone SHOULD have a 2 week supply of prescription medication. It is being reported that not only might pharmacies be closed but if open, "they may not be able to get resupplies". Leaves me thinking, "is this for a hurricane or Y2K?".

Its amazing how fast it has happened. Store shelves were full yesterday. Gas tanks were empty yesterday. All was calm and peaceful. Like I said, can't help but to think of you as I listen to the TV and radio. Today, suddenly, almost like out of nowhere the hype is tremendous. It has come fast and furious. The reports have Y2K written all over it.

Hurricane Floyd today, Hurricane Y2K in 109 days.

-- Anonymous, September 13, 1999

Answers

Norm,

This is classic behavior. The local merchants know and expect it to be this way, *every time.* Even with the threat in view, they wait for the last minute. Don't want to be "stupid" and buy stuff we might not need, right? Then, rush, rush, rush, and clean the shelves. This is what will happen to the majority of people even if Koskinen and Company starts pushing the Y2k matter. But he won't. Yet I read that privately he is very distraught that complacency is the order of the day.

-- Anonymous, September 14, 1999

I was just thinking about this same topic yesterday, as I watched the Weather Channel and all those folks standing in line for plywood and food. The reporter said that they ran out of plywood in Florida and had to send for more in surrounding states. When Y2k hits - where are we going to send for more? FEMA and the Red Cross have told us that we should treat Y2K like a hurricane -i.e. three days of food and water. Seems like they underestimated hurricanes and Y2k.

By the way, best of luck to you Norm. Terri

-- Anonymous, September 14, 1999

Norm's story exemplifies why scoffing at or ridiculing _anyone's_ personal choice to have contingency plans and preparations for Y2K is counterproductive and illogical. Regardless of your view about the impact severity of Y2K, being prepared for an emergency is just plain good sense ANY TIME. If Y2K concerns have prompted some people to arrange for heat, non-electric lighting, water and/or purification of same, and a stock of food and/or medecine, then not only is that family better off but the community and the country is also that much farther ahead in dealing with whatever emergency arises, whenever it arises.

Having contingency plans in place for emergencies is just plain SENSIBLE. It doesn't matter what the motivating factor is. And if Y2K has upped the overall emergency preparation level of citizens, we should be saying, "GOOD!".

Thanks very much, Norm, for the report. It very nicely highlighted how quickly the media and government recommendations for preparedness can accelerate over the two-three days being promoted for "a bad storm", and how few individuals actually even have that.

-- Anonymous, September 14, 1999

Norm - best of luck and be safe. Please update us on your status when you can.

-- Anonymous, September 14, 1999

Posting from Charlotte, North Carolina;

The memory of hurricane Hugo which pretty much devastated this area ten years ago has prompted a surge of prep purchases here today.

Yesterday Home Depot had a generous supply of generators. As of noon today they have none. They are also out of D cell batteries, low on other batteries and flashlights too.

The grocery stores are being rushed as well.

Glad to not need to be a part of it.

If you see a map with Floyd's path and Charlotte happens to be on it, note how far away we are from there.

S

-- Anonymous, September 14, 1999

Like Hugo, Here's a REAL event we need to prepare for...

Regards,

-- Anonymous, September 14, 1999

Factfinder,

By the tone of your post it looks as if you're not preparing for Y2K. I would really hate to see you go begging since you have been such a major contributor to this forum. But don't worry, I'll save a few cans os spam just for you.

Regards,

-- Anonymous, September 14, 1999

Bill, Thats the nicest offer I believe I've had on this forum...but um, spam? Akkk...my old standby is beanie weenies...

I really don't mean to make light of the Hurricane, this is a serious deal. And so is y2k, but it's nothing close to this hurricane as far as the potential for disaster (my opinion of course!). I experienced Hugo, and this looks bad...

I do plan to make preps for y2k - extra milk and bread before the panic run :)

Regards,

-- Anonymous, September 14, 1999

Fact Finder,

I applaud your intention to make Y2K preps before the panic run. This means you won't be part of that particular aspect of the Y2K problem.

Further, it means you will actually be part of the solution to that aspect of the problem; being prepared well ahead of time.

I made the decision some time ago to maintain a steady state of preparedness for a variety of emergency situations. Because I have my stuff together it means I am not tapping into the slim reserves "out there", I'm leaving more for others, and I'm not adding to the confusion.

Just for fun, when do you expect the Y2K panic run to start?

-- Anonymous, September 15, 1999

what i have found singularly amazing about the orders to evacuate was the total lack of coordination at the state or federal level to oversee or facilitate the mass exodus.

is this the precursor to a y2k exodus due to a city with no water or dare i say it... electricity?

people stranded in miles of traffic, cars overheating, cars running out of fuel, tempers short, people panicking, and babies howling... sounds like an ad for the local sunday night horror flick.

... or hasn't anybody noticed?

-- Anonymous, September 15, 1999

Let me add my $.02 to this (somewhat) OT thread...

I'm watching this whole hurricane thing play out with an enhanced interest, as the storm seems to be heading my way shortly after landfall. The local TV weather track has the storm going right over my house. ;-)

So, here's a bit of perspective on this thing.

My daughter came and visited me in my office after school today. She was estatic when she walked in the door. "Guess what, Dad? No school tomorrow!"

Hmmm. Interesting. "Well," says I, "There goes one of your snow days for the year already, and we're not even out of September yet." Ah, kids. The end of this school year is so far in the future, thinking about extra days of school on the back end is not even on the radar screen.

I had a short list of things to pick up at the store on my way home (storm or not), and my daughter and I got to talking about what we might need if the storm got bad here.

"Well, if the lights go out, we'll need candles," she says.

"No we won't," I responded. "Remember the oil lamps?"

"How about some bags of ice to place in the freezer so the ice cream doesn't melt?" Trust a 12 year old to think about the ice cream.

I pointed out to her that we had other ways to get power to the house. "Oh, yeah, I fogot about the generator," she said. "And we've got all that water stored...enough food...what about food for Chelsea? (Our dog)?"

"That's on my list, dear."

Now, I got to thinking about it, and mentally ticked off the items on my preparedness list. Heck, we were already ready for just about anything mother nature could deal at us (short of huffing, puffing, and blowing the house down). So, a bit later, we left the office for the food store to pick up the few non-essentials on the list. Now, my spouse had been to the store earlier in the day, and detected no "unusually large crowd of people".

But when I went to the supermarket about 4:30, it was bedlam city. No kidding. Now, I'm used to last minute panic buying before a forecasted snowstorm, but this was beyond anything I'd seen for snow. It was surreal. Bread was basically gone. Bottled water was picked over. Every line in the grocery store was operating, and every one of them was 6 people deep in line.

Now, as I was standing in the speed line to buy the bag of dog food, it occured to me: the initiating event for the "run" was most probably the closing of school for tomorrow! All of a sudden, the potential seriousness of the situation hit people smack upside the head, and they rushed to the store.

On the way home, daughter asked: "Do you think a lot of people in town have generator, Dad?"

"Probably not," I replied. "But let's hope that no one needs one anyway."

We've got a little family gesture that means, essentially, from your lips to God's ears. My kid made the gesture, and opined, "Well, I'm glad we've got one."

From the mouths of babes...

-- Anonymous, September 15, 1999

OK, here is my OT subject to an OT subject. If you need an emergency fridge, and power is gone: Plate full of water, put a small pot in the water and put food inside the pot. Get a larger pot and turn it upside down and cover the smaller pot completely. THe larger pot should have the rim immersed in water (water tight seal). The water inside will evaporate, thus keeping everything inside cool. It will condensate and roll down the sides and go on with a continuous cycle. If you want a bigger fridge, use a plastic garbage can and do the same thing. That is my lowtech solution to fridgeration for camping trips and it will work great for any emergencies during Y2K.

The storm. I honestly think that 80%plus of the population has waited way too late to start preparing. I don't understand the mentality of waiting to the last second before preparing. Why does there have to be a knocking at the door first? Anyway, I personally assume that even if Y2K does not herald doom, we are still going to see the same mob mentality of people storing up in late December. So I advize that even if you expect nothing, have some stores just to get by that time. I hate the thought of lining up for hours just to get my wheaties on the table.

-- Anonymous, September 15, 1999

Y2K Aspects of Hurricane Floyd

Some Things I Found Very Interesting

I lost power for only 14 hours. I am thankful that Florida Power & Light got us back on line so fast considering that 85,000 homes were without power. FP&L does good work for a good price. However, following the storm FPL was announcing on the radio that they would not send out crews to make the repairs until it was safe to do so. Now by this time it was daylight, rain was light or just a drizzle and winds may have been 25 mph or so. I have seen their crews out making repairs in far worse conditions. With all of the storms I have been through I had never heard this talk of safety before. (Please let it be known that I am not saying I want line crews to take extra risk so I can have power)

PHONES? WHAT, NO DIAL TONE?

Another thing I had never heard before (not to say it hasnt happened) but following the power outage many phones went dead including mine. This was several hours after the worst of the wind and I was thinking that weakened tree limbs had fallen on phone lines or something like that. BUT NO, it was announced over the radio that Southern Bell had lost power also and that their backup generators and batteries only allow for a few hours of backup power and after that.....? The phones go dead. Is this something new? Y2K PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCMENT

Here is an interesting deal. Before we lost power, we are watching the coverage of the storm and there was a Public Service Announcement about Y2K. It was several children (I guess therefore believable) saying to prepare for Y2K.... standard government issue, food, water, medicine etc. The children were URGING that if people had bought supplies in preparation for the hurricane and did not need to use the supplies, to please save those supplies for Y2K. Also, they added that you will need a 7 to 10 day supply of these essentials. I dont know if this was a local or national advertisement but it was fascinating to see it. Anyone else see this?

FOR THE CONSPIRACY CROWD

I live on the mainland but own a business on the barrier island and I wanted to get over to see what the deal was. Well, the bridges were closed, something you would expect if there was devastation but this was not anything near devastation. I did not press the issue with the police. A friend of mine who lives on the island did. He wanted to get home like the rest of the 2 million evacuees on the Florida coast. He told me that the police said that no one would be allowed on over the bridges until FEMA gave the okay. FEMA? I'll give that a big HMMMMMMMMMMMMM.

Finally, like Rick, I felt very well preparded. The additional preparation for Y2K (above that for a hurricane) left me feeling confident that I have done well to care for my precious family. This was a psychological benefit and would have been even more so had the outcome been worse. I didn't need to buy anything in order to prepare. (except a couple of Hershey bars)

-- Anonymous, September 15, 1999

Steve, Good question, I have thought a little about the potential for a y2k panic prep rush at the end of the year, but the timing, its hard to say. The unknown factor is what kind of press y2k will be getting as we approach it. Thoughts, anyone?

As far as always being prepared, it seems to me that the individualist types like to be prepared for almost anything that they perceive as a threat. There are those who go to extremes (totally self sufficient) for various reasons as well. To each their own. I like to prepare for threats myself, but I quit preparing for the bugy man a long time ago. I may pick up a few things before the store shelves clear, top off my tank a few weeks early and keep it a bit full, but I won't have to prepare for y2k, because it just isn't gonng to be a big event. There will be a decent number of minor/moderate problems in the press the first few days after the rollover, and maybe even a severe one or two, but that's about it. As far as y2k affecting power to any signficant degree, that's a laugher. I have never been so confident of anything in my life.

Regards,

-- Anonymous, September 15, 1999

Factfinder, I hope you're right that you "won't have to prepare for y2k, because it just isn't going to be a big event". You have a lot more confidence than Lt. General Kind who's heading the 40 million dollar National Y2K Information Coordination Center.

From a recent interview with the General:

Q: " Are you expecting serious problems on January 1, 2000?"

A: "I don't think anyone really knows what's going to happen. If someone tells you what will happen with certainty, then they aren't credible. The reason we're doing the things that we are is that there is a potential here. We think we've followed good remediation and testing procedures here in the federal government, and we hope that's been done in other organizations, in industries, in other nations. It's prudent to be prepared. We're prepared to collect the information, assess it and try and recognize the early trends. These could be good as well as bad, and we're hoping they're good."

I'll choose being prudent over confidence in any good outcome for Y2K. Too many global variables which cannot be predicted.

(By the way, I enjoyed the "bugy" versus "bogey" man quip! Nice play on words even if I don't agree with your surety.)

-- Anonymous, September 15, 1999

<<<>>>

In my humble opinion, the press will have a field day with this deal and will fuel the fire of a panic. I believe it is not IF but WHEN their fury will be unleashed on the story. I also believe that the truth will not matter at that point, exaggerations and even untruths will be gas thrown on the fire. In the last 14 months I have seen 2 very good examples of hysterical television/radio generalism. The first, the fires that sweep through Volusia/Flagler counties in Florida in July 1998 and now hurricane Floyd. It is blatantly obvious to me that the scheme for both was to take a fact, produce hysteria and then offer calm reassuring (common sense-duh) advice all in hopes of selling advertisments. And the public absolutely eats it up.

-- Anonymous, September 15, 1999

I'm trying to have all my preparations finished by end of October because I think the media hit and panic will start early in November. By then, I can see Ted Koppel and his, "Y2K - Disaster of the Century" headline. Since C-Span has already started treating this like a "real" story, the other media can't be too far behind. I've also noticed a little more action/information about Y2K through the mainstream paper media.

The biggest problem I foresee is not enough time for everyone to prepare. And this is a problem that could have been avoided if the leadership in this country would have just said something like, "We're doing our best - but we don't know. Why don't you just store up a little extra food and water, just in case." Instead, we get a lot of smiley faces who are busy preparing their own shelters on the sly.

When people who think Y2K is a fairytale speak with me, I smile and say, "Well, store some food and water anyway. This way you'll be eating food at last year's prices - you'll save money. And you just never know when you'll be hit by a storm."

Rick, I hope you and your family and safe and snug as Floyd comes visiting your way.

Terri

-- Anonymous, September 16, 1999

Well, it looks like we'll be getting less-that-hurricane force winds and a ton of rain - power has already gone out briefly once today, and we're not supposed to get the full force of the remains of the storm until later this afternoon. The windows in my office are leaking like a sieve, but the ISDN line is still humming along. :-)

At this point, the biggest concern is high tide on the Delaware River early this evening (I live just north of Delaware Bay, about a block from the Delaware River). I'm pretty much ready for Y2k, but I don't think anyone is ever ready for flooding. ;-)

-- Anonymous, September 16, 1999

HI - luckily Floyd missed much of Charlotte, NC --- (unlike Hurricane Hugo)....

We are around 250 miles inland, but the degree of panic by those unprepared was unbelievable at the grocery stores....generators, batteries, water flew off the shelves in about 48 hours....People weren't paying attention while driving. I didn't know things were bad at the stores and stopped Tuesday for a few items and realized the unprepared were suddenly preparing and got the heck out of there...

If nothing else,,,all early y2k preps will be worth all the effort at the end of the year when 'everyone' else decides to prepare......believe me, you don't want to be anywhere near the crowds.....

-- Anonymous, September 16, 1999

Thankfully, Floyd didn't cause as much destruction as it might have, unfortunately there were still 7 reported deaths.

Regarding my statement regarding the potential for y2k to have any significant on electric power, in retrospect my use of the term "laugher" is inappropriate, I regret the choice of words. Y2K has indeed been a real technical problem. A more accurate statement would be to say that based on the findings in the industry and the remediations undertaken on the very few significant problems, any significant effects on power by Y2k is simply not a plausible scenario.

Bonnie, you made a few posts that caught my attention, and I wish to reply to some of your comments. I believe that this is at least the second time you have used a quote to imply that my credibility should be questioned. Now dont get me wrong, I have no problem if you wish to do this  it puts me in fine company along with NERC and various other facets of the utility industry whose credibility you have questioned (even to the point of accusing them of lying, covering up, etc.). What I object to is the way in which you do it - by misapplying a quote, and by having someone else (the person you are quoting) do it for you. If you believe that I am not credible, thats ok, you are welcome to your opinion, but why not have the courage to say it yourself?

Interesting quote by the general, but was he speaking about the potential for Y2K to have any significant effects on the ability of power generation and distribution when he made it? It appears to me that he was talking about all of y2k in general, and this point has some validity if taken as no one can know everything about y2k and what scenarios are plausible. To misapply this quote when to my statement, restricted to a narrow facet of Y2K - the potential for adverse effects on power generation and distribution facilities- is unfair at best, underhanded at worst.

I have talked to dozens of engineers involved in Y2K and even more engineers who are responsible for plant power systems. I have yet to find a single one of them who believes that their plant or distribution facilities will have a problem with Y2K. I also have not found any of them who believe that their plants will have a loss of power on the rollover to Y2K. These engineers have been working on power systems for years and resolving serious problems for years. They didnt all of a sudden go stupid for Y2K. Many of these engineers do indeed laugh at the Y2K hype and since they have dealt directly with the trivial y2k bugs, with very few serious problems, but they took the task of assessing their systems very seriously. I also refer you to the industry links I provided in the Embedded Systems Revisited thread  please notice that many of the things I have been saying for the past year are said there as well. I, and the industry as a whole, may have no credibility, but at least we have a consensus, and if the good Lord is willing, we will have power.

By the way, I enjoyed the "bugy" versus "bogey" man quip! I did too, especially after you pointed it out, because until you then I thought it was just a spelling error :)

Having contingency plans in place for emergencies is just plain SENSIBLE. It doesn't matter what the motivating factor is. And if Y2K has upped the overall emergency preparation level of citizens, we should be saying, "GOOD!". I strongly disagree  the end does not justify the means. We are all accountable for our actions  if you spread false rumors and exaggerations about Y2K, you are flat out lying to people, intentionally or not. And what about those who believe some of these false prophecies about Y2K, Bonnie? What about people who hear such dire predictions and then overreact? Thanks to the myth makers, many are preparing for the worst  widespread power outages and fuel shortages. Unfortunately, we are likely to see more injuries and deaths due to "preparations" than due to the Y2K problem itself. For example: Tim is preparing for Y2K by storing gasoline in 55 gallon drums and wants to know if the drums should be vented. An anonymous poster asks if anyone has anyone looked into storing liquid propane in the home? And Leo offers this handy little Y2K heating fuel suggestion just dissolve styrofoam into gasoline to make a napalm like substance. John asks whats the best type of generator to run from a second floor condo with a small deck.

Bonnie, will you assume your portion of the responsibility for any harm to these people, or their families, that they take in reaction to some of the claims you make? Now maybe you didnt advocate these kinds of extreme measures, but hey, you have been telling everyone that NERC and the industry are hiding things and lying. Another stick on the fire of untruth

I flatly state that the risk of significant power outages due to Y2K is insignificant, and that the only preparations needed for possible power losses are those that would be appropriate for the winter storms that occur every year. I will accept full responsibility for my statement, and I give it knowing that God will be my judge.

-- Anonymous, September 16, 1999

Bonnie,

There is a very interesting essay available from Cynthia Beal.

www.co-intelligence.org/y2k_mid999Beal.html

I stand in awe of her ability to focus on, explain, and comment on, the continuing Y2k saga. She goes to considerable lengths in looking at the phenomenon of "mind-set." I must personally say, that one of the side benefits of this whole Y2k adventure is a deeper awareness and respect for mind-set, which I had previously (erroniously) thought was merely the result of lack of information. But, no, it goes far beyond that. It actually flies in the face of information and eithier ignores or distorts the information in order to maintain the desired personal opinion. The mind-set.

In the above comment from FactFinder is an interesting accusation. He says, in part, that he strongly disagrees with your, and others, position that warning the public and going into strong preparation mode is Good. He mentions all the possible horrors that could happen if people make foolish mistakes in their preparation. He seems to feel that it is grossly irresponsible to advise people in that way. The irony of this is that it can be turned around 180 degrees and used against his own position, but his own mind-set doesn't permit that. It is this sort of argument by FactFinder, and others in *his* camp, that first puzzled, then frustrated, and now simply astonishes me.

On the one hand, I note that FactFinder is well aware of, and involved in, the problems of complex systems and their possible "common-mode" failures. He is properly concerned about that sort of dependency that we have elected to bring upon ourselves. Yet, when it comes to Y2k and its effects on complex systems, he doesn't see that as very dangerous. What it comes down to in the end is that either he is mostly right, and we are mostly wrong, or vice-versa. I guess it has always been this way in social or even scientific thinking. As the old carnival hawker said, "You pay your money and you take your chances."

-- Anonymous, September 17, 1999

Norm, I was very interested in your observations regarding FP&Ls restoration efforts. I cannot say with any certainty just what their specific policy is regarding the commitment of personnel resources to the restoration effort or when that policy was implemented. What I can say is that my admiration for that particular competitor is boundless. Florida Power & Light, in my opinion, is the premier expert in restoration/reconstruction in post storm conditions and each event, regardless of magnitude, they learn to improve their process. Most importantly, they share that knowledge readily and are often one of the first utilities in the state of Florida to offer assistance elsewhere. even out of state.

The premature commitment of personnel and material resources only serves to delay ultimate restoration and compound costs. Clearly, the risk to personnel is much too great and is simply impractical. Generally, the trigger seems to be approximately 40 to 45 mph winds and yet even this is often dependent on the circumstances and work conditions. Debris driven by 45 mph winds can be just as deadly as those driven by 100 mph winds, not to mention the potential risk of energized conductors. While 75 mph winds may not qualify as catastrophic on the Saffir-Simpson scale, it is very difficult to convince an experienced lineman that is subject to exposure to the elements otherwise.

Typically, the post storm sequence for restoration in delivery systems is transmission substations, transmission systems, distribution substations, distribution primary circuits, lateral circuits, secondary circuits and finally secondary services. Very often, homes or businesses damaged by storms cannot be reconnected until private repairs are made and a revisit will have to be scheduled. This is not because utilities are reluctant to provide service but rather because of the public safety issues. One significant threat is the improper use of home generators and the failure of the user to provide an open disconnect point with the local distribution network. I would urge anyone to read the instructions, follow directions, have the utility pull your meter, and DO NOT wire the generator to your home wiring without professional help. Store generator fuel safely and keep the storage area well ventilated. Ensure that you inform lineworkers that you have a home generator in use.

In 1992 following Hurricane Andrew, I purchased a home generator following a earlier visit to the City of Homestead, Florida. As we drove through Miami toward Homestead, I was appalled at the progressive destruction as we traveled farther and father south. As we left Miami proper, I felt that Homestead could not possibly have suffered as badly as Miami. I could not have been more wrong. When we arrived at Homesteads utility facilities to check on our crews, the scene was incredible. As far as you could see to the horizon, the trees left standing had been stripped of leaves, pine trees snapped at mid trunk, power poles snapped at ground level, chain link fences acted as filters for every type of airborne debris until they collapsed. It was astounding in the extreme. Every corner turned offered another incredible picture or fired the imagination for what it must have been like. A utility employee from Homestead told me that while he felt reasonably safe after moving his family into his office, the hours and hours of howling, moaning winds was maddening and served only to frighten the children. Before leaving Homestead, I asked one of our volunteer linemen if he had any lasting impressions of the restoration work. His response was Restoration, what restoration? Were rebuilding this system from the ground up and when we finish, this system will be practically brand new. But since you asked . Honestly you know, I dont think I could ever kick over another ant hill as long as I live. Now I know how the ant must feel. His thoughts sure put things in perspective for me.

-- Anonymous, September 17, 1999

The statement above is: "The risk of significant power outages due to y2k is insignificant". I also have much confidence in the quality of the engineers running our power plants and the quality of their equipment. If there were absolutely no equipment failures,telecom failures,etc,etc in the USA, that does not necessarily mean that there's no significant risk of power outages due to y2K. It takes ENERGY of some type to run those plants. Presently about 52% of our oil needs is imported. See any problem there??? Tunnel-vision will keep you focused on a small part of the potential problem and will eliminate the view of the big picture. Or, it could be, that "tunnel- vision" is just another way of saying "mind-set". I have never been able to understand the inability of some to see how our World As We Know It is totally interconnected.

-- Anonymous, September 17, 1999

Just a couple of things on this OT thread. The sheriff of Orange Co. Fl (Orlando) told the public, "if you are not prepared now, you have no one to blame but yourself". The other thing I want to remind people of is that fact that while we don't get hurricanes in January, they do get blizzards and ice storms up north. And they don't pass over in a few hours. Taz

-- Anonymous, September 17, 1999

Factfinder, you made a blanket statement:

"I won't have to prepare for y2k, because it just isn't going to be a big event. There will be a decent number of minor/moderate problems in the press the first few days after the rollover, and maybe even a severe one or two, but that's about it".

It certainly seemed to me that you were "talking about all of Y2K in general", too. Your prediction for the electrical industry came after the "not going to be a big event prediction". I put out a quote which indicates that the government appointed head of the ICC has no such surety. I said flat out I think there are too many global variables which cannot be predicted and that I "don't agree with your surety". I've been saying the scope of the problem is beyond definitive predictions for months and that prudent risk preparation is wise.

You think the outcome of Y2K can be predicted. You said you strongly disagree with my statement that having contingency plans in place for emergencies is just plain sensible. I'd say it's quite obvious that we disagree on the potential for risk the Year 2000 can bring. You seem to be taking things very personally when the difference is basically our view of the scope of the issue.

I stand by my oft-stated opinion that a prudent risk management strategy is just as wise for individuals and families as it is for industry and government. If you see this as panic mongering, too bad. Have you written to complain that all the contingency plans by the industry and the $40 million spent on the ICC are a waste of money and time, too? How many memos have you sent to the Board of Directors telling them there's no reason to waste time and money on drills, extra training, extra personnel on site at rollover?

I suppose you think the comparison between the NERC MAIN Region's public and confidential statements indicates for sure that they have told the whole truth and nothing but the truth?

And no, I am not assuming responsibility for the individual decisions or types of contingency plans anyone makes. I've stated often that people have to make up their own minds about issues. That's what being an adult means - taking responsibility for yourself and your own decisions. The devil made me do it, or Bonnie made me do it, or Factfinder didn't make me do it, concept of responsibility transfer you're into is crap in my opinion. There. Is that direct enough for you?

I'd be laughing about you seeming to think I'm some kind of extremist if I wasn't so tired of taking hits, particularly via e-mail, from both sides of the Y2K fence. There are plenty who think I'm not extreme enough and accuse me of doing the same kinds of damage to people by not taking a stronger stance. My opinions are my opinions, end of story. Other people are perfectly capable of thinking for themselves, and I expect them to do so.

-- Anonymous, September 17, 1999

"My opinions are my opinions, end of story. Other people are perfectly capable of thinking for themselves, and I expect them to do so".

Not bad. I can live with this.

Regards,

-- Anonymous, September 17, 1999