From the Sri Lankan Daily News:

The Lost Millennium By Sir Arthur C Clarke

The 2000th anniversary of Christ's birth occurred around 1995 and nobody took any notice! Yet four years later, in what is either an amazing demonstration of ignorance, or a cynical attempt to exploit an erroneous chronology, self-styled prophets are proclaiming that all kinds of disasters will strike when the Year 2000 arrives.

Let us begin by disposing of a few myths and illusions. First of all, the Western, or Gregorian Calendar isn't even recognised by most of the world, and one can imagine the amusement of cultured Hindus, Buddhists, Muslims, Jews, etc. at the arrogance of those who believe that it has some special significance. and by a series of historical errors, even its connection with Christianity is so flimsy that the very terms A.D. (Anno Domini - the Year of Our Lord) and B.C. (Before Christ) are incorrect! For Matthew 2 clearly states that Jesus 'was born during the reign of King Herod', who is known to have died in March or April 4 B.C.

When the Three Wise Men told him that a Messiah had been born in Bethlehem, he launched a pre-emptive strike by ordering the slaughter of all male infants up to the age of two. So even if - most improbably - Herod gave this order on his deathbed, 4 B.C. is the latest possible date for Christ's birth. The usual guesstimate is 6 B.C., but it could be even earlier.

And there's another slight complication - the fact that our Almanac started off on the wrong foot, with 1 January 01 instead of 1 January 00. This meas, of course, that a full two thousand years will not have elapsed until 31 December 2000, and the next century (and millennium) will begin on 1 January 2001 - not on 1 January 2000.

A few months ago, when I pointed out that most of the celebrations planned on 31 December 1999 would actually be a year too early, this raised howls of protest from people who appeared unable to count. So I asked: would they be happy to buy 10 kilos of sugar from a grocer whose scales, when empty, pointed to 1 instead of 0? To accusations of being a spoil-sport, I answered that it was just the contrary - I had now given two dates to celebrate instead of only one Obviously, the psychological impact of those three zeros will be enormous, and a certain amount of partying is quite in order - just as it is in any family for 10th, 20th, 30th etc birthdays. But let's not fool ourselves by pretending that 2000 has any special significance in the human, much less the cosmic, scheme of things.

For now I have even worse news for the 2000-chauvinists - the very number 2000 is just a biological accident. If we had evolved with 4 digits on each hand instead of 5, we'd be counting in 8s instead of 10s. Such an 'octal' scale of notation has several advantages over the one we're now stuck with, as it would simplify communication with our binary (scale of 2) colleagues, Electronic computers do all their calculating in 1s and 0s, and require interpreters to deal with such unwieldy digits as 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9s...

So what would 2000 look like in octal? Here it is: trust me 3720

Does anyone feel like celebrating this nice round number - or would they prefer it in binary notation, as your friendly lap-top does?

11,111,010,000

"God" it has been said, "knows all numbers" - a truly awesome thought. But there is no reason to suppose that he prefers one system of counting over another - unless Genesis 1.27 is taken very literally indeed. Would even the craziest Apocalypse purveyors claim that because "God created man in his own image" He must therefore have ten fingers?

I fear that the answer is 'Yes', because there is no limit to human folly or credulity - witness the suicides triggered by the Hale-Bopp comet, when a lunatic cult interpreted an out-of-focus star image as a visiting spaceship-and decided that there was only one way to get aboard.

We may expect similar tragedies in the Year 2000, when predicted disasters fail to materialise, and so have to be manufactured to prevent loss of face. Let us hope that the alternative solution is more common. "Well, it would have happened, but our prayers averted it.'

Like every other year in the history of the world, 2000 will doubtless have its quota of catastrophes, both natural and man-made. But one of them will be unique; attempts to avoid it have already cost billions of dollars, and some of the best minds on the planet are now burning the midnight electricity, generating software in the hope of minimising its impact. I refer, of course, to the dreaded Y2K (Year 2000) Bug, which has taken most of the world by surprise, despite plenty of advance warnings. Here is the one I gave a decade ago in The Ghost From The Grand Banks:

Since the 1960s, more and more of the world's accounting had been taken over by computes, and the process was now essentially complete. Millions of optical and electronic memories held in their stores trillions of transactions - virtually all the business of the planet.

The human bank clerks and accountants who did what was still called "book-keeping" had very seldom bothered to write in the "19' before the two digits they had entered. These were taken for granted; it was a matter of common sense. And common sense, unfortunately, was what computers so conspicuously lacked. Come the first dawn of 00, myriads of electronic morons would say to themselves "00 is smaller than 99. Therefore today is earlier than yesterday - by exactly ninety-nine years. Recalculate all mortgages, overdrafts, interest-bearing accounts on this basis..." The result would be international chaos on a scale never witnessed before; It would eclipse all earlier achievements of Artificial Stupidity -

There were not enough programmers in the world to check all the billions of financial statements that existed, and to add the magic "19' prefix wherever necessary. The only solution was to design special software that could perform the task, by being injected - like a benign virus - into all the programs involved.

During the closing years of the century, most of the world's star-class programmers were engaged in the race to develop a "Vaccine 99"; it had become a kind of Holy Grail. Several faulty versions were issued as early as 1997 - and wiped out any purchasers who hastened to test them before making adequate backups. The lawyers did very well out of the ensuing suits and countersuits.

It was just as well that 1 January 2000 was a Saturday; most of the world had a full weekend to recover from its hangover - and to prepare for the moment of truth on Monday morning.

The following week saw a record number of bankruptcies among firms whose Accounts Receivable had been turned into instant garbage... (end quote.)

A few months from now, much of the above fiction will become fact. Perhaps an even more serious threat is posed by the myriads of date-sensitive microchips involved in tasks that have nothing to do with accounts - air traffic control, global positioning systems, power generation - the list is endless. And the situation will be worsened by the hi-tech psychopaths who enjoy designing ever deadlier computer viruses, and will certainly make the most of this unique opportunity. So much of the partying at midnight 31 December 1999 will be by candlelight, to the sound police and fire sirens.

Let's hope that everything is back to normal by the correct (Gregorian) Millennial date a year later. By all means drink a toast to 2000 when it opens - but save your best vintage for 1 January 2001.

Only then will you be able to make the proud claim 'I survived the 20th Century.'

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), September 10, 1999

Answers

Great story. By the way, where are all the BIG new century stories? Why aren't there plans everywhere, in many cities and towns celebrating the event of 2000 - a new century. Celebrating our successes? Any reports, other than the breifly mentioned big celeb in Washington, DC?

-- dw (y2k@outhere.com), September 10, 1999.

Hi OG,

Great post,

A few months from now, much of the above fiction will become fact. Perhaps an even more serious threat is posed by the myriads of date-sensitive microchips involved in tasks that have nothing to do with accounts - air traffic control, global positioning systems, power generation - the list is endless. And the situation will be worsened by the hi-tech psychopaths who enjoy designing ever deadlier computer viruses, and will certainly make the most of this unique opportunity. So much of the partying at midnight 31 December 1999 will be by candlelight, to the sound police and fire sirens.

Glad you're back :-)

-- CT (ct@no.yr), September 10, 1999.

Git,

A thousand years is as a day with the Lord. Some would say that we are in the year 5760 of the Hebrew calander, add 240 years of the Persian rule and you are at 6000 years. They believe that at the end of these 6000 years Jesus is going to catch away all his believers, at which time a 7 year tribulation period will begin. They believe that these 6000 years could end on the jewish new years day 1999. Sept 11 1999 is that day. I guess we only have to wait 1 more day to find out if there math is correct!

-- gambler (you never @know.com), September 10, 1999.

Note: We are on digital time. Ignores history. Ignores the moon, the sun and stars. AD2000 on tombstones. Should we start the clocks and calendars at 1 again?

-- dw (y2k@outhere.com), September 10, 1999.

Note: We are on digital time. Ignores history. Ignores the moon, the sun and stars. AD2000 on tombstones. Should we start the clocks and calendars at 1 again?

-- dw (y2k@outhere.com), September 10, 1999.

We may have to.

-- CT (ct@no.yr), September 11, 1999.

Old Git:

It could be like this:

HAL: Open the pod bay doors.

*click* *click* *click*

HAL: Open the pod bay doors.

*click* *click* *click*

HAL: Damn. Daisy, daisy...

Clarke: No, no, you're Y2K compliant! Work with it! Arrggh!!!

HAL: I'm Y2K, you're Y2K, ergo, mal...func...shun...junc...shun...

.....................................

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), September 11, 1999.

Dino,

LOL, Good to see yu. It could also be like this,

:-)

-- CT (ct@no.yr), September 11, 1999.

Great post OG!

I never noticed anyone mention it but during the Bennett, Dodd press club gathering Sen. Dodd mentioned that the New Year was the start of the new millennium. You would think he would know better.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), September 11, 1999.

>Dodd should know better

Dodd has learned that it is better to speak lies his voters believe than to teach them what they don't want to hear.

Leadership? What's that?

-- cgbg jr (cgbgjr@webtv.net), September 11, 1999.

ACC has such a brilliant, creative, active mind that I would follow him around as his humble slave just to catch a glimpse of what makes him tick. Well, not really. Almost.

-- coprolith (coprolith@rocketship.com), September 11, 1999.

Thanks, Git! I'd been wondering what that old Master had to say to us, and I'd be even more thrilled if you can catch his commentary at year-end and afterward for us.

dw: "By the way, where are all the BIG new century stories?" I hope it isn't WE who are spoiling their party? They should be able to have a pretty good one without us, eh? Images of Adolph & Joe & Mao & Oppenheimer to adorn the celebratory obelisk. What, 100 million? 150 million violently killed? Such a doomer I am!

Randolph: Of course, HAL has to appear at any party given.

For Mr. Clarke should he lurk hereabouts: Could we now be any nearer to our Childhood's End?

-- jor-el (jor-el@krypton.uni), September 11, 1999.