The Gary North Failures re: his Y2k predictions.

1. "Months before January 1, 2000, the world's stock markets will have crashed."

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/index.cfm (Paragraph 6).

2. "The exodus of programmers will begin no later than 1999."

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/index.cfm (Paragraph 5)

3. "The GPS rollover (to Jan. 6, 1980) on August 22, 1999, may create big problems for banks and bank wire transfers... My view: the banking system will be gone before y2k arrives."

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2818

4. "The Euro conversion is doomed. The deadline for stage one is January 1, 1999, and nobody has made it."

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/3048

5. "Month by month, my former critics are moving my way. I'll be mainstream in a year."

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/1880 - 6-24-98

6. "In January, 1999, the Jo Anne effect will begin to take its toll. That's when corporate fiscal years start rolling into 2000."

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2434 8-29-98

7. "If the Jo Anne effect begins to create panic in the corridors of the corporate world, think of April 1, 1999, when the three major trading partners of the United States roll into fiscal 2000: Canada, Japan, and New York State."

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2434 8-29-98

8. Some major computer problems will begin in early 1999, growing worse in the fall of 1999. This gives us even less time to prepare.

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/1385

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), September 10, 1999

Answers

Valid points there Cher... Makes me want to rent a Sandwich Board in Times Square --------------------- "The End is Near!!" | | _____________________|

-- Billy-Boy (Rakkasn@Yahoo.com), September 10, 1999.

Cherri

I could respond to your apparently gleeful report several ways.

(1) Gary North is a bad psychic; therefore, I won't call him for future predictions.

(2) Gary North is a bad psychic; therefore, I will discount everything he has contributed regarding Y2K.

Or, and this is probably what you really want to hear,

(3) Gary North was wrong about his predictions regarding Y2K, therefore, nothing will happen on 01/01/2000. Because of this fact, I will no longer prepare for "a bump in the road", "a 3 day storm", "an earthquake", etc. Hell, I'm so relieved that nothing is going to happen I'm canceling my homeowners policy and car insurance.

Thank you for enlightening me and setting me free.

Oh, and do you have corresponding accurate statements made by North or anyone else you'd care to share with us.

Burying my head in the sand because Gary is wrong,

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Y2KOK.ORG), September 10, 1999.

There is a better chance of a Gary North prediction coming true, then there is Cherri ever doing her reply to Cory. Talk is cheap Cherri.....

-- TomWaits (TOmWaits@zensearch.net), September 10, 1999.

There are a lot of problems not being reported in the press, my Cherri. The thing is, Mr. North is no programmer, he's a thinker, a sociologist type. And he's right about the eventual outcome. But the experts who understand computers have said all along that fiscal rollovers, 9999 etc would NOT be earth-shattering. YOU have to dig, stop relying on others. Find out what compliance really means, what kinds of integrative testing has taken place etc. There is an actual truth to this, IF you dig deep enough. I've been saying this all along, Y2K ain't no mystery! Owl

-- owl (new@new.com), September 10, 1999.

A similar review of Michael Hyatt's failed predictions can be found here.

When I think about it, the pollys have challenged such doomer predictions as Hyatt's and North's all along, and turned out to be right on every count that I know of. However, the likes of Hyatt and North, despite their obvious errors of Y2K analysis, are still praised for their services to society, while the pollys are still criticised for encouraging non-preparedness (and therefore vulnerability to the dangers of Y2K, in the doomers' eyes), despite having apparently done a far more accurate job with their own Y2K analysis.

It's a strange world we live in.

-- Richard Dymond (rjdymond@hotmail.com), September 10, 1999.

If Gary and Michael are so wrong why are governments preparing the way they are. Dig deep and watch what they do not what they say.This applies to banks and industry as well. Several 9-9-99 hits were seen in forex markets yesterday. Gary may not be a programmer but invaribly he will be "right on track".

-- rowland morgan (morgan77@home.com), September 10, 1999.

Owl,

I believe that Ed Yourdon (Computer Professional/Inovator) thought enough of the "trigger" dates to have them posted on his webpage. Do not recall if he attached a weight to each date or whether a statement attesting to their relevancy was listed on the website?

Regarding Tom Waits statement, "There is a better chance of a Gary North prediction coming true, then there is Cherri ever doing her reply to Cory. Talk is cheap Cherri..... "

Tom, hopefully I will hear from Paul Milne (at the same time Cherri writes the reply to Cory) regarding my request for proof of all those Ericsson failures that he claims to have happened.

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001App

There have been alot of rash statments made on this message board and very little material to back them up. Regards,

-- william holst (w_holst@hotmail.com), September 10, 1999.

Cherri:

Gary doe have an agenda. He really wants to save as many people as he can from a problem he percieves. As a "market timer" he may not have a great record but I believe he looks at it as an investor does, for the long haul.

Many Many things have mitigated the "awakening of the herd" to Y2K. Those who GI are amazed that everything is soooooo quiet. This can be good if it really is a BITR, but if it is 6 or worse this quiet is really eeery, sur realistic,

It is like the PHANTOM WAR of 1939(?) after Brition and Germany declared war and nothing happened (for a while). Then the preverbial scat hit the rotating thingy and we had WWII the sequal.

Cherri, hold on to your hat, keep your powder dry, Y2K may not peak till mid next year as the supply lines dry up. Or you may get luck and Scary Gary will take a place in the tide pools off the beaten path of history.

Time, Time, Time will tell. This is a process, not a event.

-- helium (heliumavid@yahoo.com), September 10, 1999.

William,

Excellent point regarding evidence (see As requested, growing evidence for more on the lack of evidence...).

And which polly suggested people cancel insurance policies? Insurance policies, after all, are coverage against things that may actually happen - Y2K does not meet this criteria. Insurance policies are coverage against things that have happened - Y2K problems, as predicted here and elsewhere by "experts" such as Mr. Yourdon and Mr. North, have not occurred.

The insurance policy analogy demonstrates the same critical thinking skillset that conjured the doomer meme in the first place, and is proof positive that the entire matter is - as polls reflect this sentiment of the populace - lots of hot air by fear-mongers.

To paraphrase C. S. Lewis, the doomer meme has every amiable quality, except that of being useful.

Regards,
Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), September 10, 1999.

Twenty years... Gary's best friend is the law of averages. He has to be right some time.

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), September 10, 1999.

Regarding polls,

Well, I guess if the polls say that nothing will happen, then who am I to argue.

No longer thinking for myself,

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Y2KOK.ORG), September 10, 1999.

Doomer meme? My ass. You morons live from CNN to KFC to TGIF. When the SHTF, it will be a sorry sight to see. All you pollys are intellectually challenged. Ever strung more that 5 or 6 thoughts together, at once? Thought not....

Anon

-- anaon (so@long.com), September 10, 1999.

I don't think it's going to be as bad as GN says. While he has had a positive effect on general y2k awareness, his doom and gloom slant is transparently obvious in light of his past record of Malthusian prognostications. Nevertheless, even if things end up HALF as badly as he predicted, we are all in for some rough times.

-- coprolith (coprolith@rocketship.com), September 10, 1999.

Malthusian prognostications?

Geez, and I thought I was a pseudointellect...

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Y2KOK.ORG), September 10, 1999.

Anon,

If pollys are intellectually challenged, and yet have demonstrated more accuracy in predictions than the memed, where does that leave you? Somewhat less, I estimate...

And, where are all the apologies and crow consumption promised by the purveyors of fear? Once again, the response is defensive. I half expect Mr. Yourdon to post an update to his site in the next 10 days explaining how the lack of any substantial evidence his predictions regarding the summer/fall of 1999 are actually more "evidence" he was correct in his "under-estimations."

Doomers, time for a new meme - this one's finished.

Regards,
Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), September 10, 1999.

Excuse me for being stupid here, but since "nothing is going to happen" why are the little trolls wasting their time reading our posts and adding their unwelcome comments here??? I may be mistaken but don't they have their own Pollyanna boards? And if in their wee little unlogical minds they truly believe this is all about nothing, shouldn't they get on with their grasshopper ways and forget any boards at all? Just wondering.

-- Tiara (sorceress5@hotmail.com), September 10, 1999.

OK, so he's a lousy psychic. I still appreciate his links!

-- Rebecca Waldock (RWaldock@nomail.com), September 10, 1999.

Cherri, nice work! The posters here are just pissed because the big boys who have been flipping their lips and predicting total collapse are eating crow now. Isn't this somewhat like a cult? You get a chrismatic leader and a few followers to listen and it's a snow job the rest of the way.

-- ####%%%%% (####@%%%%.com), September 10, 1999.

Yea Cherri, ignore the fact that many computers WILL fail. This can't be a problem because the predictions are partly wrong. Right Cherri. Now, go back to sleep.

I'm starting to loose respect for you.

Tick... Tock... <:00=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), September 10, 1999.

Good work Cherri. I have copied these and added them to the stunning compendium of failed Y2K prognostications by Hyatt, Yourdon, and the rest of the Tinfoil elite.

Somehow, I don't think this will persuade the "True Believers of the apocalypse" though...

-- Y2K Pro (y2kpro1@hotmail.com), September 10, 1999.

Cherri, go to this website and have a really good laugh at the fear mongers: http://www.y2kchaos.com/s35p109.htm "Significant Dates and Circumstances to Watch." This was written by a Presbyterian Minister

-- #####%%%%% (####@%%%%.com), September 10, 1999.

I posted this on another thread but it seems to fit here as well.

Excuse me but Im confused.

Does anyone (polly or doomster) believe that hardware, software, machinery, etc. dont fail everyday for reasons that have nothing to do with Y2K? Hard drives fail and computers crash every day. The question is how does it affect you. The idea that somehow every failure is Y2K related or conversely when 1/1/2000 comes and goes (or what ever other mystic date you choose) that everything will work perfectly for ever and ever is more than ludicrous.

The way I read this board is that everything (power outage, computer problem, whatever) is a portent of things to come, except when it isnt.

To say there wont be any problems next year is probably over optimistic, however you define bump in the road. The question is will there be enough problems or will any specific problem be so widespread as to affect a significant part of the population. If you buy dog food at the store down the street and it goes out of business but another store two blocks down the street stays open is that a problem? Maybe for the people who went out of business but your dog wont starve.

The doomsters on this board have been predicting and proclaiming widespread problems. If it doesnt happen they will be wrong. I dont think that when Y2K comes and goes and all the lights stay on, water comes out the tap, cars run, etc that youll be able to claim a vast cover up. Thats like saying all of North America is without power today but you didnt notice it because of a government cover up.

If an ice storm ( a real one not a Y2K analogy) hits an area of the country hard and people are out of power it will have nothing to do with Y2K but the people will still be out of power. But it will have nothing to do with Y2K.

-- The Engineer (The Engineer@tech.com), September 10, 1999.

Y2K - Its the Year 2000, Stupid

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), September 10, 1999.

Tiara, we've all been wondering the same thing for months!

-- (they@won't.leave no matter what), September 10, 1999.

Y2K Pro & Cherri, here's another site with some outrageous predictions, author even admits they are outrageous and challenges you to prove him wrong:

Westergaard Year 2000 Economy

http://www.wbn.com/y2ktimebomb/Economy/Predictions/index.htm

-- ####%%% (####@%%%%.com), September 10, 1999.

Gary North is SQuirrley,

Whereas I respect his intellect and his commitment with the potential problems at hand. He has blown it several times with credibility. I don't know if any of you remember this but a few months ago he sent out a report about this special oil filter that his mechanic has that everyone should order. when noone took him up on it he chastised people for not inundating his mechanic with orders. This and serveral other occurences have made me suspect about Mr. North. Again I do appreciate all he has done for awareness, I just intuit he may be over the edge.

-- David Butts (dciinc@aol.com), September 10, 1999.

Tiara, just calling a spade a spade and pointing out the truth. Wouldn't you rather know the truth than to believe a stretch of the imagination?

-- ####%%%%% (###@%%%%.com), September 10, 1999.

And another thing...

Anyone who posts a response in green crayon must need help from his mom or another adult.

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Y2KOK.ORG), September 10, 1999.

"Dear" Pollys,

"Calling a spade a spade" I would be More than happy to have this all be hype, exaggerations and all the other words you like to throw around...But I always believe in playing it safe, I'm Not going to look at my 20 mth old son and tell him "sorry sweetie, we don't have anything to drink or eat, I believed the government." I'd rather look a fool now than watch my child die rather unpleasantly if there is Any chance of problems.

On this board we have important things to think about, you don't need to agree or believe...just Don't waste our time or server space.

-- Tiara (sorceress5@hotmail.com), September 10, 1999.

1. He's been wrong on a few, but there's still time on some. 2. As regards banking, the situation IS quite tenous at this time. You've actually got people like McDonagh below, a Fed official stating publicly that the Yen/Dollar slide doesn't matter while all the while these guys are adding so much liquidity thier eyeballs are watering. Get with it Cheri. There's quite a few odd things happening here. You must be blind or stupid. They also changed their policy on Thurs regarding collateral for primary dealers allowing unprecedented liquidity. They're not doing this for nothing....Duh.

> No change in monetary policy due to Y2K? > > Fed says adds reserves via O/N, 7-day system repos (Reuters) > NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve injected > reserves to the banking system on Thursday through > a round of overnight and seven-day fixed system repurchase > agreements, the New York Fed confirmed. The > operation was generally expected, although analysts had figured > on either overnight or multi-day repos. > - Sep 09 9:37 AM EDT > > Fed seen doing overnight, possibly term repos (Reuters) > NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is likely to > add temporary reserves to the banking system on Thursday through > overnight, or possibly multi-day system repurchase agreements, > analysts said. ``The Fed has a fairly large add need even after you > take account of the outstanding 38-day system RP, because the add need > remains large for the entire maintenance period,'' said James > Blumenthal, an economist at MCM MoneyWatch. > - Sep 09 9:18 AM EDT > > Alert: Ny Fed to Permanently Extend Long-term Repos to 90 Days > From 60 Days Currently (Reuters) > (This is a headline-only alert, although it will likely be > followed by an article soon) > - Sep 08 10:41 AM EDT > > Alert: Fed Says Added $2.005 Bln of Reserves Via Wednesday's > Overnight System Repos (Reuters) > (This is a headline-only alert, although it will likely be > followed by an article soon) > - Sep 08 9:53 AM EDT > > Fed says add reserves via overnight system repos (Reuters) > NEW YORK, Sept 8 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve injected > reserves to the banking system on Wednesday through a round of > overnight system repurchase agreements, the New York Fed confirmed. > The operation on the final day of the Fed's current two-week bank > maintenance period was expected. > - Sep 08 9:32 AM EDT > > Fed adds reserves via six-day fixed system repos (Reuters) > NEW YORK, Sept 3 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said it added > temporary reserves to the banking system on Friday through six-day > fixed system repurchase agreements. Fed funds were trading at 5-3/16 > percent at the time of the operation, slightly below the > Fed's 5-1/4 percent target for the rate. > - Sep 03 9:41 AM EDT > > Fed adds reserves via overnight system repos (Reuters) > NEW YORK, Sept 2 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said it added > temporary reserves to the banking system on Thursday through overnight > system repurchase agreements. Fed funds were trading at 5-5/16 percent > at the time of the operation, above the Fed's 5-1/4 percent target for > the rate. > - Sep 02 9:45 AM EDT > > Alert: Aug 24 Fomc Voted to Expand Collateral Used for Daily Fed > Repo Operations (Reuters) > (This is a headline-only alert, although it will likely be > followed by an article soon) > - Sep 08 10:37 AM EDT > > FOMC announcement spurs rally in U.S. mortgage debt (Reuters) > NEW YORK, Sept 3 (Reuters) - U.S. > - Sep 08 3:51 PM EDT > > Alert: Fed Says Adds Reserves Via Six-day Fixed System > Repurchase Agreements (Reuters) > (This is a headline-only alert, although it will likely be > followed by an article soon) > - Sep 03 9:30 AM EDT > > Fed adds reserves via overnight system repos (Reuters) > NEW YORK, Sept 2 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said it added > temporary reserves to the banking system on Thursday through > overnight system repurchase agreements. Fed funds were trading > at 5-5/16 percent at the time of the operation, above the Fed's 5- 1/4 > percent target for the rate. > - Sep 02 9:45 AM EDT

Proof that the FED smokes crack on regular basis. > > > IMM currency futures mixed, yen up sharply > Sept 9 - IMM currency futures continued mixed with Dec yen > sharply higher and carving out new daily highs after stronger > than expected Japanese GDP. Dec yen broke through resistance at > $0.009346 and at $0.009355, with further resistance at > $0.009610, which is near one year high, traders said. Dec yen > rallied after Fed's McDonough said dlr/yen drop not significant > for U.S. economy. Talk of BOJ intervention continued and > expected if dollar yen breaks below 108.00, traders said. > ((Chicago Derivatives Desk(312)408-8750, > chicago.derivatives.newsroom@reuters.com)) >

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), September 10, 1999.

Tiara, it isn't the government that's making these predictions, it's the Y2K computer experts that are making the predictions. The government is smart to let the experts look like fools.

-- #####%%%% (###@%%%.com), September 10, 1999.

Here Cherri, Decker, and other pollies with Attention Deficit Disorder - maybe this will help:

September
         1  2  3  4 
5  6  7  8  9 10 11 
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 
19 20 21 22 23 24 25 
26 27 28 29 30

October
                1  2 
 3  4  5  6  7  8  9 
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31

November
    1  2  3  4  5  6 
 7  8  9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 
28 29 30 

December
          1  2  3  4
 5  6  7  8  9 10 11 
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 
19 20 21 22 23 24 25 
26 27 28 29 30

January
                   1

Hint: We are now at the blinking RED 10. Y2K is at the bottom. Get it?

-- a (a@a.a), September 10, 1999.

I cant remember Cherri, is it every 100 or 1000 years that you find love in Brigadoon? Keep trying girl! The emperor wears no clothes!!!! Cover up girl!!!!

Deo Vindicie, BR

-- brother rat (rldabney@usa.net), September 10, 1999.

Good work Cherri. And a@aa, funny post!

Regards,

-- FactFinder (FactFinder@bzn.com), September 10, 1999.

I'm surprised no one seemed to notice that of G.N.'s 8 statements, only 1, #5 is demonstrably wrong (he has not become mainstream). Many of the others are not predictions but scenarios (if this, or may cause) and the rest still have time to come true, such as months before 1/1/00 a stock market crash.

-- Doug Platt (dplatt@ptialaska.net), September 10, 1999.

Doug,

I would interpret "mainstream" differently than you. When virtually every Y2K forum throughout the Internet is familiar with Gary, That seems fairly mainstream to me. I'd agree with you that for the most part his other statements did not strike me as being entirely wrong.

-- @ (@@@.@), September 10, 1999.

LOL, a. Does that come in a wallet size?

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), September 10, 1999.

Cherri:

If that is the extent of Gary's inaccuracies then I am very very scared.

-- Will (sibola@hotmail.com), September 12, 1999.

Y2K really annoys the insiders, the establishment, the Tri Lats-- because it's the only thing they can't control, & it threatens to cripple or destroy all their controls. They firmly control the mega- banks, global money system, mega-media, all major political parties (on both sides in every nation), & the multi-nationals. But Y2K snuck up on them, & they're mad & scared. They're desperately spending billions to try to "fix" it but they know it can't be totally fixed, perhaps not ever. It will also be a major setback for Big Brother, in all its aspects, from tax collection to bank rule to centralized bureaucracy & monitoring. As a result, the average person will get a lot of unexpected benefits from Y2K. Some are hoping for a worst-case scenario. "However painful, it's a worthwhile cost to regain individual freedom" they say, in essence. Freedom has never been free.

If U don't really feel Y2K is going to be a BIG DEAL, & if therefore it annoys or upsets U to read data reports from people who say it probably IS going to be a big deal, then don't bother to read this article. Skip on to the next one. Mostly, people aren't changing their minds, are decided re Y2K. If U are a new subscriber, U should read this so U see what we consider the critical/updated facts. Unless U get heavy/daily Y2K updated hard data (as we do) then it would be puzzling how U can decide either way--without all the new daily facts. But most people are deciding emotionally, not objectively, not factually. That's their option, even if subconscious. So, read on or not, as U choose.

For those few who are still reading (:-), here's the latest: Many are comforted to hear that govt & biz have Y2K "contingency plans." Instead, that glib phrase should scare them. Think about it! If all govt depts, banks, biz, military, airports, hospitals who claim they are Y2K- compliant (as most now claim) were really bug-resistant, why would they need vast contingency plans? "Contingency" isn't just a throwaway word; it means something, ie, what we'll do if our individual company/bureau/system breaks down.

They're spending massive money on contingency plans, which means they've little confidence in their claims they're fully Y2K- compliant. Some have thrown in the towel, admit they can't get compliant in time, & will rely mainly on contingency plans. At least they're honest. That can't be said for the blowhard bluffers who are hoping to con people they're foolproof. Fools, yes. Foolproof: unlikely. Only a minority submit to audits of their repair/test/compliance claims.

Many insiders admit they're far behind schedule & will be on a "fix- on-fault" basis in 2000, ie they'll fix/repair embedded chip/computer/system breakdowns if/as they occur. That means after trouble. The catch is: how do they get back up if the whole system is down? Bottom line: the world is one big web of contingency plans & fix-on-fault. Nobody is 100% safe/compliant, because it's impossible to attain. And that is fact, spoken by the world's leading engineering group. US Senate Y2K Report: "Y2K is not going to be just another 'bump in the road.' No, it's going to be one of the most serious & potentially devastating events the US has ever encountered." Govts tend to soft-pedal bad news, so that statement should be a wake-up call to many. Turn up your hearing aid!

The BIS (Bank for Int'l Settlements, Basel, Switzerland) is the central bank for all other central banks. Their Y2K view is not cheerful. In a fat report they say "some problems will be missed; new problems will be inadvertently introduced via the remediation process; even the best test programs may not detect all potential errors; uncertainty will remain up to & after Jan 1. In other words, it is inevitable there will be Y2K disruption, athough it's not possible to predict how serious or widespread this disruption will be."

So there U have it. Central banks will go into 2000 not knowing if these systems are fixed. They know most are not fixed, worldwide. Compare BIS language to your local bank's PR rubbish. The BIS report goes on in great detail. If U read it all U lose any shred of optimism. The general threat is a breakdown of the inter-bank payments system. And once down, how to get it back up? BIS says: Y2K is "unlike any other disruption problem where identical backup sites can be activated. But any uncorrected Y2K problem is likely to affect both sites so the backup would not be a contingency."

It gets worse. BIS, who says what neither private banks nor govt banks dare to say, reveals: "The inability of a major payment & settlement system to function smoothly, or have procedures for isolating problems, will intensify uncertainty/concern. In the extreme case, this could have repercussions throughout the global & domestic systems." Conclusion: the world economy is at acute risk. This is not some "doom/gloom" offbeat writer's view; it's the bluest of the blue chip banks. If your hair hasn't turned grey so far, read the following:

The BIS advises banks to get the home phone numbers of regulators & govt officials so they can be contacted at night or on weekends to discuss the prudence of "closing markets & declaring an emergency financial bank holiday." This is scarier than any Y2K newsletter writer (except Gary North) has dared to say. And it's the real thing! U see, if banks go down, there can be no stock/bond/property mkt, or any other mkt, except black mkts of course, using cash. And all this is separate from equal risks from no power, oil, water, & no phones/fax/e-mail. U don't like this? Does that mean it can't happen? Or can it happen even if U don't like it? Try to separate wish from reality. Author Dr.Edward Yardeni, chief economist/global investmnt strategist at Deutsche Banc-Alex Brown has come back from Y2K retirement & says: "Y2K summary: Most have eyes wide shut....My prediction for a global recession in 2000, at 70% odds remains...Stock mkt down 10-30% (that's 1-3000 DJIA pts). Recession major causes: breakdown in just-in-time manufacturing system, & in global oil industry. Y2K could cause another energy crisis." (I'm virtually sure of it--HS)

EY notes Y2K press coverage is childish, reports the good news press releases, make no comment, ask no questions. "Some frame Y2K as an all-or-nothing story. Either planes fall out of sky or nothing happens. None consider in between. Anyone who talks in between is lumped into the doomsday category & dismissed as far-fetched..Public is led to believe the casual assurances of the few means everyone will be ready. EY says: "Y2K will turn out to be the greatest story never told--- properly." Reporters squeeze answers out of politicians thought to be in hanky-panky, but never ask ONE question about any Y2K report by anyone in banks/govt/biz.

Jacquelyn Williams-Bridgers, US Inspector General,testified in Senate: Half of 161 nations assessed are reported at medium-to high- risk re Y2K failures in telecommunications, energy &/or transport. Her strong conclusion: "The global community is likely to experience varying degrees of Y2K-related failures in every sector, in every region, & at every economic level. The risk of disruption will likely extend to int'l trade, where a breakdown in any part of the global supply chain would have a serious impact on the US & world economies." Now, tell me dear readers, WHY doesn't TV & the press tell U this? My answer: the banks won't let them. Maybe U have a different answer?

As I reported before, the US State Dept will issue Y2K travel advice in Sept. 3 cheers to USSD for integrity in this regard. But it will shock a lot of people. The penny will finally drop. US govt Y2K topdog Koskinen says the US is considering evacuating US citizens from nations with widespread Y2K failures. Each ambassador will make that decision. More than a penny is dropping now. More like a silver dollar. I've only scratched the surface of all there is to report. What bothers me most is the nuclear power plant risks, a global risk, at least in the northern hemisphere. But I can't cover it all. And most people don't even want to hear it.

I'm optimistic that Y2K will paralyze most tax collecting computer systems to such an extent that govts will quickly switch from the income tax to a sales tax (the only fair system), which isn't computer complex & will allow govt to function, ie, bring in money, their 1st concern, 1 of the Holy Trinity of govts (the other 2: power & control).

Every credible Y2K writer accuses govts/banks/biz of lying about the problem & their readiness. But it is left to humourist Art Buchwald to wrap it up in a recent column that concluded: "Fibbing is what Y2K is all about." Many a sober truth is spoken in jest. If U don't take my Y2K advice, take advice from cartoon character Dennis the Menace, who recently told his mother: "We should be stocking up on cookies for Y2K." Make mine ginger snaps! :-)

Harry Schultz

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 12, 1999.

good old Gary is just preserving hi 100% track record, thats all. why is anyone suprized?

-- statman (stat@statman.stats), September 18, 1999.

good old Gary is just preserving his 100% track record, thats all. why is anyone suprized?

-- statman (stat@statman.stats), September 18, 1999.