A Bonnie Camp response snipped from EUY2K:

[snip]

Simplicity is often in the eye of the beholder. Pauls fine post may speak simply to some readers yet confuse other equally intelligent readers whose frame of reference in everyday life is not mathematically based. Chaos Theory has been brought up twice on this forum recently, and since I believe that a frame of reference can be found to explain a theory to anybody so it can be understood, Im going to tackle Chaos. I think it can be tamed and now that schools are going to be in session again, what better time?

So who wants to do Chaos Theory 101 with me? Wow! Look at that show of hands! (Hear those groans, more likely....*wink*. ) Seriously, gentle readers, follow along and I think youll discover that you already intuitively know a whole lot about the basic principles of Chaos Theory. No math here, nobodys going to fail this course and better still theres not going to be a test at the end!

Chaos Theory is also called Complex System Theory. For centuries scientists and mathematicians tried, and often succeeded, in coming up with various formulas for predicting (or modelling) the outcome of certain physical behaviors. If youve seen the recent movie, "October Sky", youll remember the scene where the two boys use mathematical formulas to help them discover where one of their missing test rockets should have landed. When they get to the area they still cant locate the rocket. One of the boys asks, "Was the wind blowing that day? If it was, it probably was coming from the west. It could have pushed the rocket so it would have landed over there instead...". Sure enough, they find the test rocket.

Now, a man experienced in rocket science would have known about factoring in wind velocity and direction when trying to determine a rockets path, or trajectory. Some things are quite predictable because of various Laws of Physics already formulated over the centuries. What this same rocket scientist could not predict any better than anyone else is how any woman he might meet would react to the question, "How ya doin, Babe?" Nor could he always accurately predict the weather. People and the weather are examples of complex systems. They constantly surprise us. In fact, one of the most essential components of a complex system is unpredictability, simply because there are so many, many tiny factors which are part of the system.

About forty years ago the common sense notion expressed by the following ditty hit the world of mathematics and Chaos Theory was officially born:

"For want of a nail, the shoe was lost; For want of a shoe, the horse was lost; For want of a horse, the rider was lost; For want of a rider, the battle was lost; For want of a battle, the kingdom was lost!"

This is now a big scientific deal, you ask? Yep. Everyone may now repeat after me, "Duh! Those scientists don't get out much do they?" *laughing* In all fairness, however, the mathematics involved can be as complex as the systems, they are a big deal, and certainly even attempting to discover new predictive patterns among such complexity is an ambitious undertaking. But the basic concept is a no brainer for anybody who has ever tried to figure out why a man or a woman did or said something completely different from what you had expected.

THIS is Chaos Theory? See? I said youd already know about it, didnt I? Another way of talking about Chaos phenomena is called the Butterfly Effect. In common parlance you might hear a phrase like, "A butterfly flapping its wings in Hong Kong might cause a thunderstorm in New York." In more scientific terms, to be able to precisely predict the weather youd need an exact replica of the earth, because all the tiny things like butterfly wings flapping would have to be factored in to any model.

Ill bet youve all watched the Olympics or various sports competitions at one time or another. When there are two athletes competing who are nearly equal in their abilities, maybe youve heard an announcer say something similar to, "Boy, these guys are both so good this match could come down to who ate the most breakfast this morning!"

Youve got the idea, dont you? Chaos Theory is a science of surprises; of trying to understand and pattern things that are almost impossible to predict like weather, emotional interactions, stock market vacillations, and on and on. One of the defining features of Chaos Theory is that chaotic systems are sensitive to initial conditions and even a very slight change in the starting point can lead to large or importantly different outcomes.

I can envision a lot of "Clicks" going on in readers brains while youve been reading this. Some of you are bound to have thought to yourself, "Heck, since I first started looking into Y2K I figured our global system of computers was just too complex and interconnected for anybody to able to predict for sure whats going to happen when little date problems are introduced into it."

BINGO!! You are a Y2K Chaotician! You get to call yourself Genius for the day. You also get bonus points if you saw the movie Jurassic Park and remember the character of Dr. Malcolm, played by Jeff Goldblum. He was a Chaotician. Remember the part where he drops water on the leading ladys hand to explain all the tiny little aspects which could affect which way the water ran off her hand? Remember his later phrase, "Life will find a way,"? Are you now mumbling to yourself that, "Y2K will find a way."?

If you are, theres only one thing to keep in mind. Unpredictable effects do not necessarily mean disastrous effects, nor do they mean benign effects. Unpredictable is just that. What can be predicted is that changes in the starting condition of a very complex system _will_ cause significant variations in outcomes from the original behavior. And when the original behavior was predicated upon reliability and accuracy, it's logical to extrapolate that changes in the outcome could include unreliability, inaccuracy and other unpleasant conditions.

The Year 2000 date problem will enter changes in the interconnected complexity of our global computer systems, in combination with human interaction with those systems. While small or individual system changes can be predicted and/or mitigated to a large extent by testing, these individual systems and the people who designed and work with them are only a small part of the vast complex system of computer processing. Certain prediction of the results of the millions of tiny 2000 complex system changes is impossible, but we know there _will be_ outcome changes.

Therefore, that makes contingency plans to deal with potentially bad outcomes a smart conclusion, both from a mathematical and common sense position. Since I think most of the readers of this forum arrived at a decision many months ago which supported both Y2K personal risk management strategies and corporate/governmental contingency plans , you were already on top of the implications of Chaos Theory, now werent you? Give yourself an A+, and what say we go watch Jurassic Park again, just for fun? Better yet, rent October Sky, it's a great film!

Oh - one last thing. Best case is to always study up and think things through for yourself. Don't take any "teacher's" word for anything unless it makes sense in the context of your own life and endeavors. I'm sure a Yahoo search (or any other) will bring up info on Chaos Theory.

-- Bonnie Camp (bonniec@mail.odyssey.net), September 06, 1999.

[/snip]

Critt

-- Critt Jarvis (critt@critt.com), September 07, 1999

Answers

That was good. Bonnie has a great way of making the complex issues understandable to the layman.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), September 07, 1999.

Entropy Rules

-- R (riversoma@aol.com), September 07, 1999.

Critt

Thanks for passing that along hopefully Bonnie will step in for a comment.
 

 I am an artist type and not a Math type Chaos but is a fascinating "mental diversion". May I recommend the book below for all the "newbie" Y2K chaologists.

 Amazon.com: A Glance: Chaos : Making a New Science

Chaos : Making a New Science by James Gleick
Paperback - 352 pages Reprint edition (December 1988) Penguin USA (Paper); ISBN: 0140092501

Chaos theory is one of the biggest revolutions in the history of man IMHO. Huge implications that rank up with Einstein's relativity. And it is just a start to further studies that folks are engaged in.

Chaos isn't quite what people would think. It is the study of dynamic systems over time, producing a "timescape" shown with fractals. Another words what seems to be totally random occurrences in our perception of time turns out to have underlying "patterns" and if you "plot" (millions of cycles) the data  over time it creates a fractal. The question is what is the underlying "timescape" that all things in nature follow? Just as space has laws for all things so does time.

It is quite a stretch as all the things we have been taught in school is wrong. Chaos indicates an order that is beyond our perceptions. But not beyond our lives. We are fractals. It is indicated by our blood circulation, lungs, brain, weather, rocks, trees a matter of fact all things in nature. Even the dispersal of the galaxies. It is the geometry of the 21 century.  An intelligence and beauty that "moves" all things.

Western Civilization is "doomed" not because of Y2K but because our perception of nature is wrong. Even the Stock Market is influenced by the whims of fractal nature. Biology is influenced by fractal nature. The flow of water is influenced by fractal nature.

R.

It is not Entropy, it is beyond that. What one would consider breaking down is actually building up. Chaos IMHO has similarities to evolution. Another piece in the great cosmic puzzle.

To some of the Tao types out there, look at the Taoist thought (root) as chaos management.

Now where is Hal :o)

If anyone has questions I would be happy to try and answer them

-- Brian (imager@home.com), September 07, 1999.

Slight correction

"It is quite a stretch as all the things we have been taught in school is wrong"

That would apply to cause and effect when multiple factors are involved. Gravity still has the same laws :o)

-- Brian (imager@home.com), September 07, 1999.

For newbies, Bonnie is a regular on the euy2k forum, electric utilities and Y2K, another forum here on greenspun. Rick has elected to password the forum, in an effort to keep trolling down. E-mail him at rcowles@waterw.com to request the password. <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), September 07, 1999.

Sysman-- Sent that e-mail August 23rd, requesting a password to the EUY2K forum. Still waiting.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), September 08, 1999.

Oh, yeah? Well, fractal you, too, Brian.

Complexity theory (a term I prefer to "Chaos") seems to be promoting new insights among the scientific community. Unfortunately, I think an adequate explanation is too complex to be easilly assimilated by non-mathematicians. But I really do like the way Bonnie writes. Good'n, Bonny.

"Timing has a lot to do with the outcome of a rain dance." --- Cowboy's Guide to Life

A major factor, inadequately explored in three-dimensional mathematics, is TIME---as it is also the case with entropy. Well, we're rapidly gaining a new and visceral appreciation of time around here, aren't we?

Overlooked in the horshoe-nail or butterfly analogies is the damping effect inherent in complex interacting systems---the basis of an argument propounded by some of our more adept Pollies. But consider that complexity theory was designed to cope with and help explain "natural" systems. However complicated our technology, we're supposed to be able to understand and manipulate our artifacts effectively. Sociological systems are natural systems; they just seem complicated by the scale of the interactions in this crowded period of history. Harry Seldon (character in Isaac Asimov's "Foundation" series) might have been among the first to appreciate Complexity theory. His term for it was "psycho-history;" and it was a fledgeling art/science then as Complexity is now.

"The first step...is the one on which depends the rest."---Voltaire

This is the most discouraging aspect as it applies to Y2K specifically. The first steps were, feeble, insecure, tentative and directionless, as were many of the subsequent steps [sigh]. This is sorely disappointing when one considers that we, as a species, should be beyond childhood. Although, when one considers that we are behaving toward our "Life, the Universe and Everything" like a pack of overconfident, invincible, know-it-all teenagers, a certain ironic correlation emerges. We do drive a little fast and recklessly, don't we?

I don't think we'll ever get a mathematical handle on Chaos if we're committed to pencils and chalk, even though Fermat's Last Theorem was solved on a blackboard. Our most brilliant and distinguished "biocomputers" may grok complexity (and even ten-dimensional geometry), but it's going to take more than concept-crunching for it to find many practical applications. I wonder how long the impending "Dim Ages" will last?

Sorry, I don't get around much anymore. But I wouldn't pass on a post with Ms. Camp's name in the headline. Thanks for real-ing me in.

Hallyx

"When we tug at a single thing in nature, we find it attached to the rest of the world." --- John Muir

-- (Hallyx@aol.com), September 08, 1999.

Gosh, Hallyx, I like your choice of reading matter! One of the interesting things about good ole Harry Seldon's pycho-history predictions was that they only worked on a large social scale. Big picture stuff, not what any individual group or business did or didn't do. It's really too bad that Asimov is no longer with us. It would have been nice to get his perspective on Y2K about now.

As you might guess, I also got lured here by seeing my name and wondering what Critt had gotten up to now? I think he likes to surprise people! Thanks for the comments, all, and I agree that there's a whole lot more to Chaos Theory than can be easily presented in a short post (or a long one, for that matter). I'm just a firm believer that having a very rudimentary understanding is better for folks than having none at all. Now I'm off to see if I can't catch up on what's going on in this forum. Lurk mode on.

-- Bonnie Camp (bonniec@mail.odyssey.net), September 09, 1999.

I'm really pleased to have found this thread,...my friend Faith Weaver pointed it out. My mind has flown to systems theory for the last few years. Read as much on whole systems as I could jam in my little brain. I realized that "new eyes", "new perspective", "out-of-box thinking" was being demanded of me, and I liked it.

I do think that hard-won solutions, a glaring fact in so-called modern human civilization, is in great part the failure to "think differently", and especially the failure to see wholes. (They took the Universe apart in order to understand, and forgot to reassemble...)Fritjof Capra's Turning Point, and related material was a great help to me, coercing my "just out of the cave" mind to juggle gestalts better.

With Hallyx and others I fantasize about hearing Isaac Asimov speak to the subject.

Thanks to Bonnie for her thoughts, and to Critt for posting them here.

There are more things in Heaven and on Earth than are dreamed of in your philosophy. --Hamlet, from the man formerly known as Shakespeare :-)

-- Donna (moment@pacbell.net), September 09, 1999.

For anyone wanting to read more on Systems Theory, or Whole Systems click below for a chapter from Fritjof Capra's book, The Turning Point

The Systems View of Life

What I like about Capra's stuff is the readability of his ideas. See if it works for you.

--The breeze, the woman and the sheet become one at the subatomic level

-- Donna (moment@pacbell.net), September 09, 1999.

Terrific find, Donna,

I wasn't ready for "Physics and the Tao" when I read it 20 years ago. But Dr. Capra has become one of my guiding lights after my having read some of his articles and essays. This chapter from "Turning Point" reminded me that my favorite systems theorist is Donella Meadows, who is an adjunct professor of environmental studies at Dartmouth College. Her article in last winter's "Whole Earth Catalogue" applied systems thinking to our environmental crisis. Well, in looking for some of her material, I came across David La Chappelle's site. He has reconstructed Professor Meadow's Whole Earth article "Places to Intervene in a System" and applied it directly to Y2K. Brilliant.

Another interesting article I found over there was

Anybody this deep into this thread is going to gobble these up like candy.

Hallyx

"Everything is deeply intertwingled." --- Tom DeMarco

-- (Hallyx@aol.com), September 10, 1999.

Well, SCREW html and the app it rode in on. Here are those articles from La Chappelle's site. Wonderful site, by the way.

Points Of Change and Y2k http://www.tidesofchange.org/pointsof.htm

Strange Attractors, Paradigm Shifts and Y2k http://www.tidesofchange.org/newton.htm

Another 113 days and I won't have to worry about this merde.

Hallyx

"To err is human. To really screw up requires a computer."

-- (Hallyx@aol.com), September 10, 1999.