Power grid 2-4 weeks blackout nationwide with rolling blackouts and brownouts thereafter for several months. sewer and water systems failures for 2-4 weeks locally, telephone and telecomunications reduction in service to 10-20 percent of exisisting service for 2-4 months,only customers with political and economic clout will have priority service, natural gas interruptions and reduction to 35% of existing service for a period of 6 months to a year. Oil from overseas will be reduced to 25 % of existing services for 1 year. Food delivery and supplies domestically will be curtailed to 25% of exisisting services for 12-16 months. manuifactured goods will be down to 15 % of current deliveries for 12-16 months due to a y2k imposed oil shortage and rationing. Sharp economic depression for 6 months followed by a recession lasting 2-6 years if no war happens as a result of the y2k,followed by a brisk internet lead economic recovery. I see y2k an environmental problem with many to come down with health challenges. Upside of y2k It will put the breaks on Global warming, force communities and nations to work together to overcome the CHE's,force the militaries of the world to retink it's nuclear policies,and Force the Govt's of the world to work on a sound currency and economic policies that will be sustainable for our future generations. They will ban deriveratives after the massive economic damage they will cause. Govts will be modified and corporations control will be limited and monitored by the survivors. This is my educated best guess and not my worst case senario for domestic U.S and G-7 nations,outside this group problems will be of longer duration. Y2k will be a crisis of known and unknown quanties. What's your guess. This thread is for contigency planning purposes . I hope I am wrong , but two years of intense research has lead me to these conclusions. Share your thoughts.

-- y2k aware mike (y2k aware mike @ conservation .com), September 01, 1999

Answers

A scenario should at least be consistent. A drastic reduction in oil supplies for a year will destroy our truck-based distribution system. Food shortages would be everywhere. Extensive power failures would follow (oil and gas fuel many plants.) A depression would not be short and limited, but long and severe. Social/political reaction would also be severe. Food, water or power shortages for any length of time could destroy a major city.

There's a common feeling that "well, there's no actual destruction here, just failed software, so the economy can just restart". But there was no physical destruction in the 30's (not even a Y2K problem!) and we got a decade of depression. Japan has seen nearly a decade of recession just due to bad lending and asset inflation.

Y2K on top of or causing a credit collapse, a stock market collapse, a trade deficit collapse, possibly a collapse in the value of the dollar, will not be easily shrugged off. If even half of what you are proposing comes to pass, it will be the end of an era.

-- You Know... (notme@nothere.com), September 01, 1999.

If all activities collapse to the extent that you say Mike, it will be a 10 and recovery will be slow and painful. With rotating brownouts, how can systems be fixed? The public health problems will be immense with death and disease in the big cities becoming so prevalent that it will be difficult to maintain civilization. If a depression starts, the defaults will be self-perpeptuating. Will the Governments still be in denial when everything has crashed? The bump in the road wll be as tall as the Rocky Mountains. Governments will be local. The Federal Government will be a laughingstock and will be ignored with no functioning revenue system. Curly has one year of supplies and figures that the depressed people will become even more depressed and lose the will to live. I think we will muddle through at an 8. Lower fuel supplies and higher fuel prices will lead the economy down. Airlines will go bankrupt, loans will be in default and the economy will collapse. It will not be pretty and many will not survive.

-- Moe (Moe@3stooges.gom), September 01, 1999.

"Upside of y2k It will put the breaks on Global warming, force communities and nations to work together to overcome the CHE's,force the militaries of the world to rethink it's nuclear policies,and Force the Govt's of the world to work on a sound currency and economic policies that will be sustainable for our future generations."

That's a poly attitude if I ever saw one. Too much greed, too much self-serving, too much evil exists today to believe Phoenix can rise from these ashes. There are already those who are planning how to make themselves filthy rich from the pending disaster. It isn't just government that is corrupt in this world. Satan is very busy -

-- April (Alwzapril@home.com), September 01, 1999.

A four-week national blackout in January is not something our society will recover from in our lifetime. Of course, the definition of "recovery" is about as loose as the definition of "Y2k readiness," so there is room for debate. But in terms of recovering to a post 1950s lifestyle, no.

-- Hiway (Hiway441@aol.com), September 01, 1999.

Many Tinfoils are predicting a two-four week national failure of the grid, and 30% of you who took a recent poll said that 100 million or more people are going to die because of Y2K. It's fascinating that mental illness appears able to be spread by the Internet...

"People who want to survive Y2K should be prepared to kill."

(its@coming.soon), July 27, 1999.

"So, of course I want to see y2k bring down the system, all over the world. I have hoped for this all of my adult life." -- Gary North

"Do I wish to see the present Federal governmnet completely disemboweled? Yes, absolutely"

Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), July 05, 1999.

"Another Polly is dead. Good riddance. The rest will follow shortly anyway when TSHTF.

(its@coming.soon), August 15, 1999.

"Just about any sacrifice is worth getting rid of it (federal government) and moving BACK to a Constitutional republic with extremely limited Federal government powers. Even if it means the decimation of the population. If the population is 'content' to live under this tyranny, then they deserve to be wiped out as a result of Y2k. They do not deserve to call themselves 'Americans' because they have not the first clue what an 'American' is." - Paul Milne, August 1, 1999.

"This is just too important to let one or two people shut me up. Here is my post my warning to all! Please take heed!

Shut down all appliances. Trip the breaker to your house. When the GPS system crashes at midnight power is going start fluctuating. Without proper synchronazation, there will be meltdowns and rolling brownouts/blackouts!

This navy paper thing stinks to heaven! it is a DISTRACTION so we will fall prey to the disruptions! Separate yourself from the grid NOW!

Batten down the hatches, the roughest ride in history begins at the stroke of twelve!

Tempest (in@tea.pot), August 21, 1999.

-- Y2K Pro (y2kpro1@hotmail.com), September 01, 1999.

If the power is off for 2-4 weeks NATIONWIDE, the die-back would be on the order of 100,000,000.

Godspeed,

Pinkrock

P.S. Global warming is a myth.

-- Pinkrock (aphotonboy@aol.com), September 01, 1999.

I'm expecting two to four weeks in January.

Too many 2nd hand and "insider" tips are all converging on that figure.

Rumours would be all over the board. We are not seeing that, in my opinion.

Critical industries? Well, first of all, any industry is critical if it is where your paycheck comes from.

Given power problems, oil problems, ad nauseum, at least a year to get things limping along. Maybe more. That does not mean fixed, all better, just "get by".

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), September 01, 1999.

A variety of things will disrupt the food production and distribution "system" (really many different interrelated systems). Therefor disruption will last at least until the next harvest season (summer 2001).

-- ng (cantprovideemail@none.com), September 01, 1999.

And everyone issued just one number this time...

-- Tim (tbr9615456@aol.com), September 01, 1999.

One month of major fuel/power disruption and those few of us left will be fighting who ever decides to invade our former country.

-- rambo (rambo@thewoods.com), September 01, 1999.

Violence will be the killer. Cities will become burning incinerators after 3 days of no power. I think the Jo Anne effect will come into effect. It really is not that hard to imagine what the scenario will be, it will be a total breakdown of society, and years to recuperate.

-- Got Ammo? (gotammo@gotammoooo.com), September 01, 1999.

I can't predict what will happen except for this, which is based on a wise surmise:

What happens at the rollover will not be exactly what any of us has expected. None of our predictions will be borne out precisely.

Everyone will be unprepared to some extent.

Adaptability and ingenuity will abound. Some will lose control.

No one mind can encompass all of it.

The future is unknown as walways.

-- Forrest Covington (theforrest@mindspring.com), September 01, 1999.

Yikes

-- John (lake@falls.com), September 01, 1999.

Forrest..I think you have hit the nail on the head. We all know about power, gas, water, sewage, yada, yada. But what are going to be really interesting are the things that will happen that no one thought of and some of the obvious things we THINK will happen, won't! Its those things that come from behind and blindside us, that I wonder about in the darkest of nights

Taz...who has decided she cannot prepare for everything, especially the unthought of and unknown.

-- Taz (Tassie@aol.com), September 01, 1999.

Systems will fail that were thought to be ready. Millennium madness will have all on edge beforehand. Panic buying, even for the three-day snowstorm will bring JIT to its knees. At least several water systems for urban areas will fail. Epidemics to follow as citizens drink unsafe water. Hospitals unable to cope with the magnitude due to their own failures and decision not to stockpile drugs.

Chemical plants exploding. Fire departments unable to respond for various reasons. Many home and apartment fires as citizens seek warmth and light. Telecommunications spotty. Fear. Inner city looting. International communication links severed. Bank and financial market holiday. Imposition of martial law. Inability to enforce martial law. Flight from the cities. Gunfire in the country.

After that it gets worse.

Now, if you want to hear my pessimistic scenario...

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), September 01, 1999.

Pro,

You WANT everyone to hate you......DON'T you?

Pinrock

Global warming is an unproven theory, just like the Y2K problem is an unproven theory. Are you going to wait till 1/1/00 to start making a stash? Equally stupid to wait till we can't go outdoors without SPF 1,000 sun screen to start paying attention to what we do to the environment.

Taz,

Yep.
The power will probably stay on, so we'll all go back to merrily sucking water from our taps and all die in a massive cholera epidemic, when the purification systems fail. I've already thought thru those kinds of scenarios. I'm not really going to be all that surprised, if the lights are still burning, in January. With so much attention being focused on THE DATE, there's probably a massive effort being undertaken to string together some band-aid patch. I'm not going to relax, however, till at least the end of next summer, maybe the end of the year. Life will go on, but so will my rotation of stock, in my food and water stores and I won't be touching water that I haven't purified on my own.

-- Bok0non (bok0non@my-Deja.com), September 01, 1999.