Economic impact of y2k on markets is starting ..... look at these headlines.greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Scan these headlines from the worldnetdaily site:
You may or may not agree with their politicas or their opinions on life in general, but just consider another 100 days of this kind of headlines: these attitudes will not immediately have a stock market impact, but we've never seen as much "headlined" news ever.
It's starting ...... how far are you ahead of the crowd?
-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 27, 1999
THE ECONOMY Growth slows in 2nd quarter Y2K stockpiling now expected to give a boost --Reuters
FINANCIAL MARKETS London delays new metals contract Reason: 'Members' concerns about Y2K' --NASDAQ News
Y2K fears postpone futures launch Hong Kong investors not interested at this time --South China Morning Post
Japanese bond liquidity is weak Blame a 'strike' by traders wary of Y2K risks --Market News International
Online exchange trades after-hours Some brokers waiting until next year because of Y2K --Denver Post
They're Y2K-ready down under Sydney, New Zealand exchanges pass tests --Australian Financial Review
Asian bond markets: Calm before storm? Issuers afraid Y2K will prompt move to U.S. Treasuries --South China Morning Post
INVESTMENTS Authors urge Y2K flight to quality See potential market tumble of 20% to 50% --Toronto Star
First survive the Y2K crash Then enjoy 'most wonderful investment [era] ever known' --Financial Post
Forget Y2K -- invest now Vancouver analyst sees no market decline --Financial Post
FEDERAL ACTIONS Y2K workers get to keep leave Accrued vacation time can be used next year --Government Executive Magazine
Five charged with Y2K nondisclosure SEC also settles four previous cases --Reuters
-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (email@example.com), August 27, 1999.
Everybody better finish up any unfinished business quick and get their ducks in order. Thanks for info Chuck. We are going out today for some shopping to tie some ends up. I'm glad we are done so we can sit back and watch when things start moving fast. Just talked with neighbors and they went out power shopping yesterday to finish their supplies. They were undecided abt how long to go for and the navey papers pushed them over the line....:>
-- Moore Dinty moore (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 27, 1999.
The complete Y2K daily report
See 'Countdown' page for the full story
-- Diane J. Squire (email@example.com), August 27, 1999.
this is going to be controversial, but i *think i'm right:
the MORE you see y2k in the news, the LESS people will worry about it. people will see the economy keep booming, and see y2k in the headlines, and pretty soon they won't be worried anymore.
kinda like the first time you see a story about mass graves in kosovo. you're sickened...it's almost hard to talk.
then, the more they show those stories about graves, the less impact it has each time....
i think the economy is going to go up and up for a bit longer, then when there is a substantial drop, i think the bottom will fall out. "substantial" in this case, being conveniently relative to the amount of days left till y2k.
i.e. if it's a 200 point drop on monday, people might not do anything... but if it drops 200 points on 12-27-1999... well.... avalanche?
Just my opinion
so, flame away....
-- Super (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 27, 1999.
But super - that's the key difference: the previous hedlines and tag lines were excessively (and probably unrealistically) optimistic. The headline is what hte public sees - and before today, the public had to read deep inside the story, had to analyyze VERY carefully all the numbers reported, and had to have a deep background in the industry and the government JUST to interpret the story.
NOW, the headline is screaming "Watch Out" - that's a whole different ballgame towards affecting public impressions. And in hte stock market, the whole price structure is based on "impressions" of future prices.....not on reality. And verybody "knows" but doesn't want tomiss on the potential for future growth (profits) by stepping off the roller coaster before it starts going down.....
-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (email@example.com), August 27, 1999.
Super--I disagree. When people start losing money and the news media gets people worried it will have a snowball effect. I'm predicting the last two weeks of September and the first 2 weeks in October to be stampede time. One more observation. Have any of you noticed how Clinton is not helping Gore out very much with his campaign? Clinton knows he's going to remain in office and there's not going to be any presidential election. Hil*liar*y's look at the senate seat in New York is nothing more than a smoke screen.
-- ~~~~~ (~~~~@~~~.com), August 27, 1999.
Agree completely. I don't claim to know what the "big money" folks are doing. They usually manage to cover themselves......
Concerns about Y2K are starting to hit the financial headlines. As the old saying goes, "Sell on Rumour, Buy on fact". The rumours are getting awfully loud and persistant.
-- Jon Williamson (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 27, 1999.
I agree with ~~~~~~~~~ whats his name. September/October is the traditional panic time. With the market at these price/earnings ratios and other things going on in the background, we don't even need y2k. Anyone who is not expecting a crash is whistling past the grave yard. Read history, you'll see it over & over.
-- rambo (email@example.com), August 27, 1999.
i agree with "super" I am a CPA and just yesterday i spoke with a client who is heavily in the market and he told me there is absolutely no reason for the market to go down.!!!!??? The philosophy of most of the people is to make the "ReTIREMENT" money now and they are not able to forsee that something may go wrong and you can hit them over the head with 2x6 and they still will not believe you. Most of the people who are invested do not even follow the market they call the broker and if he says there is not reason to worry they are content. When the market goes down who gets to sell first-the broker and his assets or you. I am sure he gets out before you.
-- rena (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 27, 1999.
I work for one of the largest electric/gas utilities in the country. Ninety-five percent of my coworkers are all GIs and they have moved their money out of the market into more stable funds. I didn't have to hit them over the head with a 2x4, I just showed them facts. Some, no matter how much you show them the proof, they just can't stand the thought of anything bad happening to them. Therefore, they continue on the same path until they fall off. And when they fall off Mr. CPA, your client will come looking for you asking why you didn't warn him. Better tape record all your transactions with your client for now on and have a gun availabe in your desk for self defense.
-- ~~~~~ (~~~~@~~~.com), August 27, 1999.
You do have a point!,
Look how fast the Turkey death toll left the screens! What's on TV tonight?
-- David Butts (email@example.com), August 27, 1999.
Do to a citation on a previous thread, I bought and read "The Great Crash of 1929" by John Kenneth Gailbraith. What was more interesting than the parallels of 1999 with 1929 was the huge mental disconnect in 1929. Many have stressed over the notion that "the whole world is nuts but us" will find dark consolation that 1929 was exactly such a disconnect. It is very easy reading and a nail biter in the current context.
-- Dave (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 27, 1999.
Forget getting the ducks in order...get your chickens properly taken care of...eggs could be valuable...
-- Mad Monk (email@example.com), August 27, 1999.
Thanks Robert, I keep harping on this but I believe it is an extremely important statistic. The Dow and S&P may be hitting new highs but MANY stocks are not close to their old highs. Folks are scratching their heads and asking why!!
The cummulative Advance/Decline line is hovering at the lows it set last fall when the Dow was at 7400.
It's coming and it ain't gonna be pretty. Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve won't be able to bail out this capitulation and they know it.
-- Ray (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 27, 1999.
"No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time..." President Coolidge, Dec. 4, 1928
"The nation is marching along a permanently high plateau of prosperity" Irving Fisher, 1929
"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanent high plateau... I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher than it is today within a few months" Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, Oct 15, 1929
"The industrial condition of the United States is perfectly sound... nothing can arrest the upward movement" Charles E. Mitchell, president of the National City Bank, October 14, 1929
"The markets generally are now in a healthy condition... values have a sound basis in the general prosperity of our country" Charles E. Mitchell, president of the National City Bank, October 15, 1929
"I doubt if anything that will not affect business can affect the market, which is like a weather-vane pointing into a gale of prosperity" Charles E. Mitchell, president of the National City Bank, October 16, 1929
"...fundamentals remained unimpaired" Charles E. Mitchell, president of the National City Bank, October 24, 1929
"There is nothing in the business situation to justify any nervousness" Eugene M. Stevens, President of Continental Illinois Bank, October 30, 1929
"the fundamental business of the country -- that is, the production and distribution of goods and services -- is on a sound and prosperous basis." President Herbert Hoover, October 30, 1929
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana, 1863-1952
"The farther backward you look, the farther forward you are likely to see." Sir Winston Churchill, 1874-1965
"A page of history is worth a volume of logic." Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr
"Study the past if you would divine the future." Confucius
"We have far more people selling derivatives, index funds and mutual funds [unit trusts] than there is intelligence for the task *"
"When you hear it being said that we've entered a new era of permanent prosperity with prices of financial instruments reflecting that happy fact, you should take cover *"
"In the late Twenties it was impossible to read any discussion of the economy without encountering the new paradigm, namely radio and electronic communications. One should read about that before putting too much emphasis on the computer world as the new paradigm *"
* Professor J K Galbraith, 1999
"The fate of the world economy is now totally dependent on the growth of the U.S. economy, which is dependent on the stock market, whose growth is dependent on about 50 stocks, half of which have never reported any earnings..." Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, Friday, May 21, 1999
**Remember This:Amateurs built the Arc professionals built the TiTanic**
-- drken (email@example.com), August 28, 1999.
Robert, yeah, it's becoming rather obvious except to those who will not see or hear. Ever see the scene in Chisolm where all the bad guys are sitting in town having a big time picking on the locals and then they start to hear the roar and rumble of Big John's stampeding cattle herd? BTW, have you ever eaten at Stilesborough Biscuits in Kennesaw?
-- doktorbob (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 28, 1999.
While these may be headlines on the internet or in some other local news media, for the most part they are isolated and are being kept that way by the very same media. As I have state before, the media is doing a very good job at keeping y2k at the local level and not making a national or international issue. This is a very fine tuned propaganda apparatus and its hitting on all cylinders to keep this LOCAL.
-- y2k dave (email@example.com), August 28, 1999.
ROTFL.............I agree...guess I'll go buy some chickens now.
-- Moore Dinty moore (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 28, 1999.