German Intelligence Agency Sounds Alarm : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

p> The millennium bug has become globalized through the international vagabond nature of hardware and software. A study by the Federal German Intelligence Service (BND) from this spring assesses the worldwide efforts to thwart the data loss worst case scenario as follows: "function failures up to complete breakdown can be expected almost everywhere". Of the estimated 80bn computer chips worldwide, 800m have not been tested. Ninety-three per cent of all personal computers made before 1997 or which have older chips in them are considered at risk.

Fear reigns, according to the BND dossier, in airport control towers. Thus the international civil air transport organization ICAO is encouraging a greater interval between takeoffs and landings.

Attempts are being made to spare the economy from a black January. William McDonough, head of the Federal Reserve Bank in New York, believes that the calendar jump "will be a matter of survival for businesses and whole markets". The London and New York stock exchanges are considered exemplary in their preparation; the Paris and Singapore exchanges have thus far declined to release specific information. In Bangkok, whoever does not make their year 2000 activities public is expelled. The British government is considering closing the banks for five days.

Even the computers of the western military forces do not yet seem to be ready for the crisis. German intelligence service experts relate that because of a software problem, the F-16 fighter aircraft of the Netherlands would not be able to be refueled in flight in an emergency. Nine out of 10 computers of the British Navy were considered susceptible. In a test, the Rapier antiaircraft missile system reportedly failed completely.

According to the BND, China is among the worst prepared nations. The wild mix of hardware and illegally copied software make preparations much more difficult. The computers of the 40 domestic airlines with their 17,000 terminals reportedly "are seriously susceptible to Y2K". Y2K is the American shorthand for the change in millennium. The national leadership reportedly ordered the heads of all the airlines to be in the air on New Years Eve.

In Europe, Russia is considered a problem child. The BND authors have determined that 60 per cent of all official networks require new software. Up to now, the World Bank has given an anti-crash credit of 100,000 dollars; estimates put the amount needed at up to 3bn dollars.

An unintentional launch of intercontinental missiles is considered "unlikely". Nevertheless, Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin have arranged for a joint early warning centre in Colorado Springs with a direct line to the Kremlin.

In the United States the millennium problem is matter for decision by the president. The armed forces have been reassured, according to the BND, by the exercise in the summer of 1998 in New Mexico that simulated 1st January 2000. In that exercise an F-4 bomber was controlled by a computer that had been adjusted, and everything went according to plan. The US issuing bank is already printing banknotes worth 50bn dollars in order to satisfy the conceivable run on cash because people do not trust their plastic cards.

Canada seems to the BND to set the example. Leave reportedly would be cancelled for the police and the army, in some cases until the middle of March; military forces would be on alert; and members of the government would come together in a "war room" on New Years Eve.

-- Dog Gone (, August 27, 1999


Won't be long now. Will be interesting to see if various governments openly Get It just before Rollover ...

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (, August 27, 1999.


-- Diane J. Squire (, August 27, 1999.

I wonder if the German populace GIs, or is just ignoring it.

-- Mara Wayne (, August 27, 1999.

Sounds bad. Jenkins! Get me my deluxe blinders. ;)

This will be ignored as well.

keep your...

-- eyes_open (, August 27, 1999.


-- Roland (, August 27, 1999.

Let's just hope the phones in Russia work so when Bill&Borris call the bunkers to tell them to "stand down. There is no launch.", the men/women with the triggers GET IT.

-- CygnusXI (, August 27, 1999.

Hot link :Sorry about that

-- Dog Gone (, August 27, 1999.

Just 75 working days 'till the END. Only 49 workdays 'till Thanksgiving, when productivity tanks.

Emphasis then must shift to quickly designing, implementing, testing, and parallel production using paper based 'workarounds.' Just 26 workdays to do that between T - Day and the End.

-- K. Stevens (kstevens@ It's ALL going away, August 27, 1999.

German populace is not getting it at all. Even more DWGI then here.

-- STFrancis (, August 27, 1999.

Those wacky Germans in the BND! "Function failures up to complete breakdown can be expected almost everywhere." Gosh I'll bet the chief German wackos who wrote that report are of buying beans und bratwurst.

And I'll bet they're ordering a huge stockpile of tinfoil from Krupp. What a buncha high-level government loonies. Glad they're over there in Wogland, right Pro?


-- Wildweasel (, August 27, 1999.

I seems like the European gov'ts are having an easier time admitting the possibility of Y2K failures than the U.S. is. Could be "us" that pulls the rest of the world down, rather than the other way around.

-- Bokonon (, August 27, 1999.

No Bonkers! it means we are living in a Police State - they are not...

-- Andy (, August 27, 1999.

My brother-inlaw just returned from visiting friends in Germany and France. I asked him what the people over there think about Y2k. The people he visited just laughed it off. They think Americans are over- reacting. They said " If it comes, it comes." Just thought I would pass this info along.

-- R.U.ready (, August 28, 1999.

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