Any recent views from Yardeni about potential economic impact of y2k?greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Subject line pretty much is the question. Have seen quotes and interviews going back to '98, and was wondering if Dr. Yardeni has updated or restated any of his views. URLs appreciated. Thanks.
-- winter wondering (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 27, 1999
Check out his webpage - I think it is www.yardeni.com
He recently re-affirmed his guess of a worldwide recession (or depression?). Check it out firsthand to be sure.
-- Kristi (email@example.com), August 27, 1999.
Check this out:
This is the audio version of Ed Yardini's most recent meeting.
-- Homer Beanfang (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 27, 1999.
National Association of Manufacturers (NAW) released is study this week which Yardeni helped conduct. He reaffirmed his prediction of a "gobal recession".
-- curtis schalek (email@example.com), August 27, 1999.
Thanks people. And I just saw a few threads below a quoted article that came out apparently today, so sorry if this seems redundant-- I hadn't re-freshed my page before posting the question.
Was looking for text-- a good up-to-date quote to post over at the Suze Orman (financial advisor) message board. I had asked if there was any info about Suze's views on y2k available. Got a few answers from others on the forum. Was surprised by this one:
"I have the privelege of spending an afternoon with Suze in Los Angeles last April, and someone asked this question. Her recommendation was to obtain a statement from Social Security regarding how much you have paid in, your eligibility, etc. Since they've been having trouble, she stated that it might not be an impossibility for someone to claim that all of the records had been wiped out because of a Y2K bug. Otherwise, she advised us not to be concerned about the stock market, etc. She may have additional comments as the year winds down, but that's what I remember."
So, am working on a response along the lines of:
" I have seen others recommend getting PEBES statements from SSA. The comment beginning with "since they [implied SSA] have been having trouble..." is a little concerning though. SSA has been working on the y2k problem longer than any other organization. They started working on the problem back in '88 or '89. If they've been having trouble, think of all the other organizations that have only started to work on y2k issues in the last year or two."
Thought a Yardeni quote might be a nice touch.
So that's the background, folks. Thanks,
-- winter wondering (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 27, 1999.
If you have Adobe Acrobat, check out "Eyes Wide Shut."
Eyes Wide Shut
The predictions therein are slightly more optimistic than T-200:
1) 10% chance of minor disruptions. Only a few problems, which will be fixed rapidly. Stock market unaffected.
2) 20% chance of same impact as a natural disaster. Business as usual within a few weeks. Stock market mostly unaffected.
3) 25% chance that multiple problems will cause MODEST 6-month recession. Real GDP down 1%-2%. Stock market down 10%-15%, then soars.
4) 40% chance of major global recession lasting 12 months, maybe longer. Real GDP down 2%-3%. Stock market down 30%. Flight to quality. Deflation.
5) 5% chance of depression lasting 2-5 years. Blackout. Social and political upheaval. Stock market...you don't want to know.
In T-200, he states that he sees a 5% chance of depression, 45% chance of a serious world-wide recession (again compared to the recession of the early 70's), 20% chance of a mild recession lasting 6 months, 30% chance of no significant event.
He had a short spot on a Market Watch T.V. program in the past two weeks or so wherein he seemed even MORE optimistic, stating that it looked like power and telecom had been handled and that his only remaining fears were lack of solid information from overseas.
T-100 will be here soon. You can catch it via the same link as T-200.
-- Anita (email@example.com), August 27, 1999.