Why Bank Runs Are Almost Inevitable In The U.S.

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

The banking industry is frantically trying to prevent the American people from taking proper precautions regarding their personal finances. We're being constantly bombarded with the message "Your money is safe in the bank; do not withdraw it for Y2K". Of course, the more they tell us our money is safe, the more some of us start to wonder why they're so worried if our money is indeed safe.

Actually, it's not going to matter whether or not the U.S. banking system is Y2K compliant or not because most of the rest of the world will not be compliant. Ask yourself what Joe Public here is going to do when he sees the evening news showing people standing in line and fighting among themselves in front of the banks in a number of other countries next January (if not earlier). He's going to go down to his bank here in the good old U.S.A. the very next morning and withdraw every cent he has. In other words, the bank runs here will be precipitated by bank runs elsewhere.

Our banks may or may not be OK regarding Y2K but it's no secret that the banks in most of the rest of the world will not be. Y2K bank runs are almost inevitable in other countries and that fact makes them almost inevitable here as well. This is not even to mention the problem of corrupt data being transmitted by non-compliant banks to compliant ones.

The only sensible, prudent thing to do is to cash in everything as soon as possible and sit on the cash until next March or so to see what happens. Otherwise you may well lose everything.

-- cody varian (cody@y2ksurvive.com), August 26, 1999


The banks are going to be their own worse enemy. You are right in asserting that the more the stories are viewed by the public the more they will think about withdrawing funds. I wonder if bank robberies will go up in the last 4 months of this year??? More cash at the bank then under my mattress.

-- y2k dave (xsdaa111@hotmail.com), August 26, 1999.


You may well be correct. We have, however, seen footage on TV over the last 20+ years about bank runs in other countries, without producing them here......

Russia, Argentina, Brazil.

One thing that concerns me about holding cash is the possibility of the government changing the unit of currency and declaring the old currency obsolete after a certain period of time.

This has happened in a number of countries this century. It is normally done after a period of hyperinflation and usually carries strict limits on how much "old" currency can be converted to the "new" money.

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), August 26, 1999.

>>>>>>>>Ask yourself what Joe Public here is going to do when he sees the evening news showing people standing in line and fighting among themselves in front of the banks in a number of other countries next January (if not earlier). He's going to go down to his bank here in the good old U.S.A. the very next morning and withdraw every cent he has.>>>>>>>>>>>>

I don't agree. At least, not in the way you see it. Within the past few years I have seen News footage of of people standing in line to clear their bank accounts in Russia, Jakarta, Mexico, and middle Europe. I have also heard rumors of Japanese housewives waiting to close accounts. I have heard of Bosnian banks that closed doors and all deposits were just stolen. I have heard of Russia playing with it's currency and devaluing it's citizens money. I have read about several South American nations literaly screwing their own citizens out of their savings.

In fact, I followed the savings and loan swindle pretty closely right here in the good old USofA. A lot of people lost their money in that scam, and lots more waited an eternity to get theirs.

Simple fact is the US population herd is very sedate. Seems that nothing short of outright mass murder gets them moving, and then only if it occurs right next to them.

I used to expect banks runs. Now I am not so sure. My opinion of the American public has degraded a lot lately. Now I expect apathy to rule. I think most people who have some money in the bank will leave it because it's the easiest thing to do. It requires no thought and no action to do nothing. Afterward they will piss and moan, or crow with delight, over the way it turns out depending on what happens.

I am still sure of ONE thing though... should it turn out to be bad and lots of people suffer, they will all blame someone else. The hue and cry for a scapegoat will be heard from mountain to sea and you can BANK on THAT!

-- Art Welling (artw@lancnews.infi.net), August 26, 1999.

why not just trade IOU's back and forth until they get everything fixed??? you people are so negative

-- corrine l (corrine@iwaynet.net), August 26, 1999.

There have bank runs in other countries on the news in the past but does the populace of those countries historically have the same confidence in their banks as Americans do? Are their deposits insured? What events precipitated the runs? Y2K is worldwide, not national or regional. Time will tell how the American psyche handles this event.

-- Scott B. (sebram98@yahoo.com), August 26, 1999.

Gotta disagree with Art here. Past foreign bank runs may have been easy to compartmentalize as just that--foreign. But for Joe Public, Y2K may provide the psychological bridge from there to here. Considering the percentage of people already planning to take out "a little extra," this thing is a tinderbox waiting for a spark. Scariest aspect of Y2K, IMO.

-- Thinman (thinman38@hotmail.com), August 26, 1999.

"One thing that concerns me about holding cash is the possibility of the government changing the unit of currency and declaring the old currency obsolete after a certain period of time."

Jon - I figure there won't be time to print everything new. (Look at the effort just for a mild planned increase in currency.) However, I could see some value in preferentially saving the new $20 bills rather than the older ones. And I haven't seen any newly printed $5 bills since at least last year - I wonder what that means.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), August 26, 1999.

All valid points, made buy all. It is quite puzzling to me how people who have been given the privileged infomation on Y2K, such as the info handed out on this forum, still leave there moneys in the bank. Somwere under 2% of our population is Y2K savey. If that same 2% were to go to the bank today and try to clean out there accounts, they whould not be sucessful. $200,000,000. in street cash wouldnt cover it. The question is what will be the trigger that wakes up the 98% of our public to Y2K and they deside to go get a little cash. You who are the previleged few, better get going, it may already be to late to get the cash...---...

-- Les (yoyo@tolate.com), August 26, 1999.


I agree with you 99.9%.

The reason why bank runs never happened here when news footage from overseas wa shown on our nightly news is because the runs were literally a world away. There was not perceived connection. There was no need to panic.

Perception is the key that will create panic.

When the event becomes tactile, that is you can see it, smell it, feel it, fear it...then it will be all too real. When it is donw the street from you, at your local bank, it will be all too real.

What I'm trying to say is that when the people that had the slightest clue see people lining up outside their banks because they want to draw out their money "just in case" then that will be all it takes. Soon, the people that didn't have even the slightest clue with start to smell something going on. The news media will only heighten the situation to a crisis on tv, on the radio. Then, you'll have the totally clueless heading down to the bank simply because they heard something on the news. Or, maybe they just happened to be driving by and saw a commotion.

The reason why I've never bought into the point of view that anyone who is pulling out money now will cause a run is because the people that are acting now are doing so well ahead of time. They wont be in line at the 12th hour wanting to pull out money "just in case."

In my mind now the only question will be the size of the snowball when it starts. Will the snowball be manageable or will it become too big to stop without causing a holiday.

Also, with an understanding regarding marketing a message, the current PR campaign by banks may actually hinder it. There is no way they can reach a 100% favorable awareness rate with the consumer. If they get a 20% favorable awareness rate then that would be a miracle. So, they have critics out there right now who aren't exactly sure. On top of that, with their PR campaign, they've taken a gamble. They've actually placed a small bit of doubt in a certain percentage of those that come in contact with "the message." Especially with anyone who read the Sermon.

What percentage would it take to create a bank run?

Let's give the banking industry the benefit of the doubt.

Maybe they were successful and their message reached the majority of people. Maybe they had an amazing success rate in getting a favorable result. Maybe they've done the most successful campaign in history and they've reached 95% of their account holders.

Can 5% of the account holders cause a bank run? What if they only get a 90% favorable response from their customers? What can 10% do?

A realistic scenario is it would be great if they've managed to even get 25% of their customers to even pay attention. And, out of that 25% they had a 5% favorable response.

Then there is this. There was always a percentage that had already made up their minds that they would be pulling out their money, "just in case." The 100% favorable response was never, ever really possible.

This same kind of situation will play out in the sock market as well.

It is a self-fulfilling prophecy and I don't see any way around it. Greed is a strong motivator in the market. Fear is an even stronger motivation.

Fear and greed together? I get shivers just thinking about it.

The tought part is there will be a lot of people out there that wont ever even have a clue until it's too late. They were never part of the self-fulfilling prophecy but they'll be impacted.

I'm very open to being wrong about this.



-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), August 26, 1999.

We will be surprised if the News even SHOWS any bank runs. There's a complicit agreement to put the lid on any Y2K "unpleasant" realities. But after 2 weeks in January of no water, phones, electricity, gas, sewers, food, etc, the weeples *may* notice life is no longer comfy.

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), August 26, 1999.

sock market? roflmao...it's early on the West Coast...

tiepose like crazee...



-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), August 26, 1999.

Got mine, didya get yours?

-- Porky (Porky@in.cellblockD), August 26, 1999.

they won't prepair,but they'll remember.....

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), August 26, 1999.

Michael brings up a good point. The one constant that you can count on in the American public is greed. If the public perceives that they may lose their money, it is a forgone conclusion that they will storm the banks. If they believe that the market has topped out and they may lose out on their anticipated 20% yearly gain, they will stampede for the exits.

When other countries were having the bank runs in the past, the U.S. didn't have people continually telling them "keep your money in the bank, keep it in, dammit!" The banks will learn the meaning of the term "backfire" in a real hurry. They are the ones planting doubt. It is this doubt that will make JQP start to wonder what all the fuss is about.

-- ariZONEa (got@cash.huh?), August 26, 1999.


I completely agree with your assessment. As an illustrative point, I have a friend with a Garmin GPS40 that was listed on the mfr's webpage as requiring a download to be compliant with the GPS rollover. I told him, sent him the link to Garmin's webpage, and reminded him several times between June and last week. His answer was always, "Yep. I better get that done." I reminded him a final time, the day before rollover, and he still didn't "get around to it". As of yesterday, he still hasn't turned his GPS on to see if it is toasted, and he's taking it on a remote hunting trip next weekend!

This fits with all the stories about advance warnings to areas soon to be hit with hurricanes, tornados, etc. who STILL wait until the event is upon them before cleaning out the grocery stores in a frenzied panic. I've never heard, but would be interested to know, even then how many don't make it to the store at all...kinda like my friend with his GPS?

I've been predicting for a long time that there will be NO bank runs, precisely for the reasons you state. I've seen nothing that causes me to rethink that position. Glad I've got mine!

-- RUOK (RUOK@yesiam.com), August 26, 1999.

Great posts with excellent points. Thanks.

But I've seen nothing to change my mind from last year - market crash and bank runs by December *at the latest*, major oil problems by January. Global Depression.

-- Dan G (thepcguru@hotmail.com), August 26, 1999.

I can't understand everyone expecting bank run problems with a January time frame. Its gonna hafta be pre-rollover. Its all cycles, psycology and perceptions. I think the most plausible senario is a 'run' on equities in the 4th quarter, probably Oct because of its historical significance on stock market crashes. If this unfolds, it will contibute enough to societial 'gooseyness' for a nice pre- millenium bank run. If it doesn't, public perceptions might be ok.

The key y2k fundamental is how extensively non-compliant systems will corrupt the healthy ones. If they do, Gary North is right or systems will get so defensive on who they exchange with the system will sputter. Is there a software program that can check data integretity???

The other thing I dont understand is everyone wanting to get into cash. No fiat currency throughout history has ever lasted more than 2 generations or so. The dollar is backed by the full faith and integrity of our US gov so a key question is how will our gov do on the rollover? I'm not buying their compliancy claims. They are definately too bureaucratic and unresponsive to unroll some big new currency. The IRS spent $4b on a new mainframe system that doesn't work. Think of those implications. Hayek was right on his "Denationalization of Money" although he didnt live to see it. We're still in the midst of a optimistic bull market boom so JK Galbraith and Greenspan are still the heros but not for long. Its the financial cycles that drive gov policy and not the other way around. Once again societial man is gonna get slammed by the inherent cyclical capacity of our herd induced booms and busts. R Prechter & his mentor, Elliott, are right - we're in the fith wave of a wave 5. Get into tangibles.

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), August 26, 1999.

The banksters KNOW that there's not enough CASH in the system to cover all potential withdrawals from demand deposits and credit lines. Only from 1% to 5% or so, depending on who's counting.

The banksters have foisted a fragile, fraudulent system on us, so what else are they going to do but to try to stay the course, and lull you into complacency.

Withdraw early and withdraw often.

-- A (A@AisA.com), August 26, 1999.

``You never know what will happen and it's not a bad idea to put some money away as a precaution,'' says Dave Cosper, Ford's executive director of corporate finance.


Worries of Year 2000 disruptions spark rash of corporate offerings

The Wall Street Journal Monday, August 23, 1999

Richard J. Almeida, chairman and chief executive officer of Heller Financial, isn't sure if the markets will go haywire as Year 2000 approaches.

But he'd rather be safe than sorry.

So Mr. Almeida's company, a major lender to midsize and smaller companies, has raised $750 million over the past month, capping more than $3 billion raised so far this year, to square away its funding needs before any possible market turmoil related to Y2K.

``It was really anticipating the fact that there could be market disruptions in the fourth quarter,'' Mr. Almeida says. ``Our feeling is there would probably be a lot of adverse psychology, so we should try to anticipate our funding needs early.''

U.S. companies are scurrying to raise money, in part to sock away cash before any market disruptions caused by the Y2K computer bug. Or to be more precise, disruptions caused by fear of the Y2K bug.

Since May 1, $23.8 billion of initial public offerings have been completed, up from $14.7 billion in the same period last year, according to CommScan LLC, in part due to an impetus to go public ahead of potential Year 2000 market problems. Meanwhile, nearly $31 billion of investment-grade corporate bonds were sold last month, up from $17 billion in June and $11 billion in May, according to Credit Suisse First Boston. And $20 billion of bonds have already been sold this month.

Says Geoffrey Coley, co-head of global capital markets at Salomon Smith Barney: ``Y2K has been part of the calculus in virtually every decision by corporate issuers in the last three months.''

It's difficult to distinguish exactly how much of the rush is from Y2K-specific fears, of course. Also driving the capital-raising drive are fears of rising interest rates by the Federal Reserve, concern about a fourth quarter that has been difficult for bond investors for the past two years, and a desire to issue before summer vacation season peaks.

But executives say worries about Y2K troubles are playing a big part in the race to raise funding. Even companies with overflowing coffers are concerned: AT&T raised $3 billion in one-year securities last month, in part to ensure the company will have enough cash on hand at year end, according to people close to AT&T.

``My fear is we're ready for Y2K, but will there be redemptions from mutual funds hurting liquidity in the market?'' asks Thomas Capo, treasurer of DaimlerChrysler, which sold a massive $4.5 billion in bonds last week, the seventh-largest investment-grade bond deal ever. ``There's a huge question of how investors will behave near the end of the year, and as an issuer it's prudent to get the majority of the year's requirements done now.''

Ford Motor is itself ready for Year 2000. But the company was glad to get its record-breaking $8.6 billion bond deal done last month, rather than test the market later this year or early next year, after the start of 2000.

``You never know what will happen and it's not a bad idea to put some money away as a precaution,'' says Dave Cosper, Ford's executive director of corporate finance.

Corporate leaders are more prone to view Y2K as a mass mania fueled by consulting companies and the survivalist industry than as a fundamental threat to society. Few believe the financial system will stop functioning as computer clocks attempt to flip over to Jan. 1, 2000.

But many corporate chiefs and investment bankers fear that investors will shift away from riskier bonds, like corporate and junk bonds, later this year and stick to cash or safe Treasurys. This could handicap companies in need of financing, causing fallout in corporate boardrooms.

``If for some reason something goes wrong and a CEO turns around and says to a treasurer `Hey, where's my funding?' +the treasurert is likely out of a job,'' says Dominic Konstam, senior strategist at First Boston. ``There's little upside for these guys'' in waiting to raise financing later in the year.

Executives may be right in being nervous about the availability of financing ahead of 2000: 58 percent of investors surveyed recently by Merrill Lynch said they plan to build their cash on hand ahead of Y2K, and 29 percent said they plan to increase their holdings of Treasurys. And 87 percent of corporate-bond investors expect ``liquidity'' - or ease of trading without price disruptions - to fall moderately or seriously as Y2K approaches. Moderate or serious liquidity problems are expected by 53 percent of money-market investors.

The move to juggle funding has been notable in the market for commercial paper, the short-term securities sold by companies looking for short-term borrowing. Many corporations don't want to have commercial paper that expires, and needs to be refinanced, near year- end. So they have been replacing shorter-term instruments, which often must be refinanced every seven to 28 days, with securities maturing next year. The result: a surge in the supply of commercial paper, with spreads widening.

At a recent meeting of the Financial Executives Institute, members said ``they're all avoiding settlements from Dec. 30 to Jan 7,'' said Philip B. Livingston, president and chief executive officer of the Morristown, N.J., professional organization. ``They're trying to avoid any kinds of deal closings in that period. It's going to be a dead period in financial markets.''

Even if big money managers stay the course and computer systems stay afloat, individuals are a wild card. Frightened by the end-of-the- world hype that the banking system will collapse, people may decide to go out after Thanksgiving and pull an extra $1,000 in cash out of their money market funds.

-- Be aware (and@be.prudent), August 26, 1999.

corrine I said: "why not just trade IOU's back and forth until they get everything fixed?" OK, let me get this straight. You give me an IOU. But then, I need to buy something, so I give someone an IOU, which of course depends on you making good on your IOU. And the person I buy something from gives someone an IOU which depends on me making good on my IOU which depends on you making good on your IOU.... I DON'T THINK SO!!! "Cash is king", folks.

(Darn, I wish I had thought of that IOU approach, I would have put in on yesterday's humorous "Be a polly" thread.)

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), August 26, 1999.

Be Aware brings up a great point here...

What about Corporations stockpiling cash? They're doing it now, heck even the news is reporting this.

Wont that have a serious affect? They obviously have great access to huge $ amounts. Amazing how the banking industry isn't telling them to keep all their money in the bank.

Isn't what we are seeing in the Corporate world right now really equal to their version of a run on banks?



-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), August 26, 1999.

Thanks for all the responses, y'all.

Though it's true we've seen a few minor bank runs in the past couple of decades, they were completely local events that had no connection whatsoever with the American public. Y2K bank runs will all happen at approximately the same time, a time in which the attention of the media will be on the Y2K question (How Bad Is It Going To Be?) in early January.

There are two possible bank run scenarios. The first one, which is the least likely of the two in my opinion, would occur sometime late this year and it would be entirely fueled by the perception of the public that their money is not safe in the bank. Since the American public is grossly apathetic and complacent, I doubt very much this will happen. As long as the banks are open and doing business, people are going to continue to be dumb enough to keep their money there.

The second scenario is far more likely because it is driven by actual banking system failures in January that are specifically caused by Y2K. The news media will simply have to report it for fear of missing the scoop to some other network or newspaper or whatever. Once people here see ordinary people in a number of other countries, people like look pretty much like us, frantically trying to get to their money at banks with closed doors, the fever will hit here. From that point on, it takes off like a rocket and the fractional reserve banking system is all over.

If the Y2K situation in South America, the Far East, Russia, and even Europe is as bad as we've been told, many times, bank runs there are almost inevitable, and if they happen there, they'll almost certainly happen here. I think there's no way to avoid this, which is why I think anyone with any sense at all should convert his investments to cash and hold the cash until next year.

-- cody varian (cody@y2ksurvive.com), August 26, 1999.

I was listening to the tom Sullivan show, KFBK 1530 Sacramento, CA, and he was asking people to call if they were or were not planning to take money out of the bank for Y2K. His point being that banks are contacting ministers to give sermons to their congregation on how dangerous it was to have money in their house. There were at least 10 phone calls and all ten calls said that they were taking money out of the bank (all of it), that they didn't trust banks, and that they would get angry if their pastor gave a sermon on the subject. I think there has already been a run on the banks and they are feeling the heat of it now. Why else would they be so concerned and ready to react now? People are going to take money out not because ATMs may not work, but because there's no money in the ATMs.

-- money bags (moneybagss@moneybaggs.com), August 26, 1999.

I work at a computer help desk; I deal with people and their problems all day long. I get people that forgot what to do, people that don't understand what to do unless you explain it to them as if they are a robot, people that don't listen to what I tell them so I have to repeat myself-more than once, people that already have the answer and don't need to listen to me (why did ya' call me then??)....I don't have much faith in "human intelligence" and "common sense" People *are* Sheeple. They *need* to be *told* what to do.

I am beginning to believe that bank runs won't begin untill it is too late; ie. next year when the banks crash. If other countries start having bank runs this year (or possibly) next year...what makes you think that the major media will broadcast such news?? Is this the same media that is covering the Y2K story like a starving hawk watches his prey??? Heck, they may not even show bad events that are happening in THIS country, much less anywhere else.

-- Brent James Bushardt (brentj@webt.com), August 26, 1999.

I'm not an economist - I really don't know much about the banking system - or international monetary system. However, several weeks (or month or so) ago, I remember seeing a thread that compared the "money" supply now and i.e. like last year. As I remember, it was about half...I was shocked.....or maybe it was something to do with a "spread" or "margin". Anyone remember that, or can look up the present figures???? TIA!

-- jeanne (jeanne@hurry.now), August 26, 1999.

Brent: I agree that the bank runs will most likely not start until after the first of the year. They will be caused by real banking system Y2K computer failures, both of hardware and software, and they will be impossible to cover up or deny. They will occur overseas first (this assumes our banks will be totally compliant, which I doubt) and the news will spread rapidly, immediately. The news media will cover it because each network or newspaper will want to compete with all the others and they will simply have to assume that their competitors will cover the story. It's just going to be too big a story to deny.

I think a conservative, reasonable analysis of the problem will lead an honest person to the conclusion that major bank runs are almost inevitable in January of 2000.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), August 26, 1999.

Hey, Brent -

You had anyone call in about a broken "cup-holder" on their PC? Classic. Turns out the guy was thought the CD tray was just a place to put his coffee mug, and it (of course) snapped off. Expected us to fix it under warranty, as well. *sheesh*

Used to run a tech support dept. Just another reason why I'm none too sanguine about Y2K...

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), August 26, 1999.


I will NOT be making any bank runs later this year.

Because, well, I did it earlier this year.

But now I've invested the money in tangible barter items.

I'm cash poor and TP rich.

Of course, I could be wiped out by a diarrhetic mob...

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), August 26, 1999.

In answer to Jon....

One thing that concerns me about holding cash is the possibility of the government changing the unit of currency and declaring the old currency obsolete after a certain period of time.

This has happened in a number of countries this century. It is normally done after a period of hyperinflation and usually carries strict limits on how much "old" currency can be converted to the "new" money.

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), August 26, 1999.

Jon, Maybe now you understand that 'paper' can NEVER actually be money. It never was money and never shall be money. But, people TREAT it as money and THAT is what is so dangerous, treating things of 'one nature' as if they were things of another nature. You can 'treat' a tiger like a cat, but it is still a tiger and will kill you. Our founding fathers KNEW that paper 'money' was NOT money and ONLY allowed for the COINING of money which means Precious metal.

You have been cheated and stolen from. And now, you (editorially) are about to reap the reward of treating the 'paper' tiger like a cat.

The ONLY way that paper can be used appropriately as money is when it is a mere receipt for precious metal and there is the STRICT assurance that the paper can be instantaneously and unquestioningly exchanged for the metal and appropriately SEVERE penalties are meted out for failing to do so.

Paul Milne

-- Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), August 26, 1999.

Cody- I've gotten to the point where I am checking this forum all the time here at work. Pretty much the whole time I'm here. And I have been getting rather morose lately...I need to believe that TEOTAWKI is not going to happen. I started my preps too late; I don't have the financial situation needed to move; I live in the City, my mother is in the suburb's with a sewage treatment plant at the end of the street, my girlfriend is within 2 miles of some major chemical plants...I can't see anyplace that is safe to wait out Y2K... I was planning on storing the stuff I am buying at my mothers, but now she and dad are having 'problems'.

To top all that off, there is a MAJOR target for Nukes or Terrorists to strike that is nearby to all of this...NOT a cheery situation.

On a more cheerfull note...

Mac- I've heard that one many times...it is a good one :) About the worst I've had was like this:

User: "I'm trying to dial in to ******. the screen says the line is busy. What's wrong?? This was working yesterday."

Me: "Ummmm, the PHONE LINE IS BUSY. That means that the LINE IS FULL. You must wait a few minutes and try again."

User: "well, can't you *DO SOMETHING*???"

Me: ?!?!?!?! (long pause while I breath out slowly and count to 10 silently) "No, it's just a normal situation when the LINE IS BUSY."

User: "Well I think that, blah, blah, blah....etc."

This line of reasoning always has me in stiches too...

User: (after problem determination is done and I tell them what to do to fix it-and they don't like the answer) "Well, this was working yesterday/last week/two minutes ago. Shouldn't that mean that it should work now??"

Me: ?!?!?!?! (long pause while I breath out slowly and count to 10 silently) "Yes, but things usually work properly before they break."

User: "oh, yes, that's true"

It's a lovely business to be in.......

-- Brent James Bushardt (brentj@webt.com), August 26, 1999.

Could not help adding my story about the stupid people using computers.....After spending about 8 hours on the phone that one day, most of the time with the person in charge at the insurance agency, I sincerely and naively suggested they buy the 'Windows for Dummies' book because none of them were familiar with Windows or a mouse. The next day, my boss's boss's boss got a call from the agency complaining that I had called them a bunch of dummies. It is Unbelievable how stupid computer users are until you spend time at a help desk - the lowest job in the computer industry.

It will not take too many computer problems to make the dummies throw up their hands and stop the show. Planning for an 8 or 9.

-- There tooLong (HelpDesk@LousyJob.com), August 26, 1999.

Well, Paul, it is now 75 days since your bold prediction of NO MORE than 90 days before the bank runs start. Don't worry, I haven't forgotten.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), August 27, 1999.

I don't know anything about the Milne 90 day bank run prediction, nor do I think it matters particularly whether the bank runs come precisely when he predicted or not. I do think that if an armed robber wearing a ski mask and brandishing a .357 Magnum kicked in Paul Davis' door, Paul would probably assume he was just collecting for the Boy Scouts.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), August 27, 1999.

Milne did not predict bank runs in 90 days. Paul Davis is talking about this item from the FreeRepublic site. The liquidity crisis described then seems to be falling into place as we speak. Keep an eye on current trends.

-- v (v@v.v), August 27, 1999.

And WE are keeping close tabs on your moronic statements, Paul Davis -- everything from running trains on peanut oil to doomers selling dope to finance their Y2K preps. Gawd, you are bonkers!!

Milne never made that prediction, and you frigging know it. "a" posted Milne's commentary on an ARTICLE that quoted SOMEBODY as predicting the 90 day event, BUT MILNE DID NOT MAKE THAT PREDICTION. And you know it!!!!!!!!!!


-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), August 27, 1999.

Didn't we have a thread recently on "stupid quotes from forum polly's?" Did it get deleted? Maybe this would be a good time to post them.

-- need a laugh (needalaught@needalaughh.com), August 27, 1999.

All these attacks upon superfluous predictions are mostly superfluous.

They mostly come out at night. Mostly.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), August 27, 1999.

"As I understand it, Mr. Kemp is simply suggesting we take precautionary measures to provide an anchor for our currency and all the world currencies that wish to link with the dollar in order to simplify financial transactions and record-keeping. The simple fact of the matter is that the global banking network, which not long ago relied on calculators and pen-and-ink ledgers, is now completely reliant on computers. "Money" is now largely electronic. Even if our financial markets are the most Y2K compliant in the world, a breakdown anywhere in this incredibly complex system may feed back to us in ways we cannot foresee or imagine. We need to think through what steps we can take right now to ensure the integrity of this system."

Dan Quayle...

At least one of 'em is a GI...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), August 30, 1999.

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