I preface this - join le metrople cafe - 2 weeks subs free...

Le Metropole members,

David Tice has served commentary at the Toulouse-Lautrec Table entitled, "Defaults Surge in First Half of 1999."

"As we have said before, today the bulls erroneously mistake unprecedented credit creation for wealth creation. Real economic wealth is not created by increasing the quantity of money or the amount and price of debt and other securities. The bulls are very wrong. And in this regard, we are quite sure that the Japanese today would not in any way consider their 1980's real estate and stock market bubbles as having created wealth for their economy; of course not. All the same, the bulls have certainly been able to perpetuate this bubble much longer than we could have imagined. We continue to work diligently to control risk while maintaining exposure to profit from a most overdue and inevitable stock market decline."

LOONEY TUNES prevail. Reverse yourself to Jan. 1, 1999. Imagine then you met a genie who told you the price of oil would double to $21, the US trade deficit would balloon to $24.6 billion and bond yields would rise to 6% - what would you have said would be a fair price for the Dow Jones ?????????

I am begging the question here, I know! Uncle Bill (Midas) says that all is not right in the natural forces of the markets.

So, let us have some Cafi fun. Goldman Sachs bought the close in the gold market today - in a BIG way according to our sources. The Dow closed at another new high and the Nasdaq closed at a new high by a point. Midas has suggested that these markets are being manipulated, so let us test this laughed at theory.

For reference note: the esteemed Mr. Richard Russell (of Dow Theory fame) commented just awhile back on August 13: "My Big Money Breadth Index (BBI) after dropping by one point to a new low, uncannily signaled a market rally - the BBI was up 6 to 1017. It does seem that every time the BBI approaches or even dips a point or two below a previous low, the market rallies. It's done it over and over again."

The "manipulators" want to preserve the status quo, not blow it up.

That means not too much of a "bubble extension" and not too much of a "gold price collapse." The $2 rule is of paramount important to the gold market. The mandated mantra of the "Hannibal Cannibal" crowd is: "no gold excitement, no gold excitement, $2 up sell, $2 up sell, discredit gold, discredit gold."

I challenge anyone to prove to me this has not been the case over the past year.

Do any markets trade with such transparent market action?

Bottom line: I suggest to you the gold price will now trend up NOW in "rinky dink" fashion with the same "mantra" and the stock market will sell off as the manipulators will dump their stock holdings they bought to prevent a "melt down."

I strongly suspect that is what will happen.

My opinion is also that eventually the biggest US financial scandal in 100 years is not too far away; this pitiful manipulation will be exposed.

That is just a matter of time. As that occurs, stocks will tanko and the price of gold will double - at a minimum. As a Cafi member, you will know: "what and why." 'When" is the real issue for all of us.

Nothing worse than equivocation! The great soul singer, James Brown, proclaimed, "I'm Black and I'm Proud."

Well, I can't sing. But I can howl - "The gold market is manipulated and it is foul."

Too much fun building for tomorrow's Midas. But we have been informed by the best of resources that tell us that just 4 hedge funds are short 30 to 50 million ounces of gold. It all fits. I will "howl" to you tomorrow.

Got to practice my "James Brown's tunes."

Stay with it: until "demain."

Le Metropole Cafi

All the best,

Bill Murphy Le Patron

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), August 26, 1999

Answers

If he really feels the gold market is manipulated, why does he want to buy gold? The diamond market is very openly manipulated to keep prices up at least 10 times the real market value of a diamond - why isn't he griping about that? And wowie - the same guys who determine the market value of diamonds are the same ones who mine the bulk of the worlds gold.

If he doesn't like a manipulated market and he thinks gold is manipulated - leave! There are several other precious metals that have a much better track record than gold over the last 20 years.

Oh wait, he is a gold DEALER, right? I guess that is supposed to mean he will someday be right and the prices will just soar. Think about it for a minute - if you bought in heavy 5 years ago then that money missed out on the biggest stock market runup in history. Where would gold have to go to match that? From the buying price of $320 or so to what? - $700 bucks an ounce? Doesn't make much sense. And I will bet you 10 bucks against a plug nickel he was NOT saying "buy into the stock market, wait a few, and then buy gold before the rebound" five years ago.

Now I personally don't give a hoot whether or not gold is up or down or manipulated (and what reason does he have for thinking THEY will lose control, anyhow), but I can't make any sense out of these documents that keep getting posted. After a sucky twenty year track record, (that actually goes back further if you except two wild years in the late 70's) you would think the gold bugs would shut up, not become as strident as crickets.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), August 26, 1999.

Paul, your ignorance is showing. If you insist on making a fool of yourself then no one can stop you. Fair warning.

-- ..- (dit@dot.dash), August 26, 1999.

Kitco Inc. - Past Historical London Fix -- Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium

Nothing in the record since 1979 supports the perennial claims that gold is likely to break out of its trading range. And the trend since 1987 has been down, down, down. Is it unreasonable to assume that those making these recommendations have substantial holdings of physical gold, gold stocks, or gold calls and do so to encourage buyers?

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), August 26, 1999.

Paul, many on the forum believe that there may be bank runs. There is a real possibility that the financial system could hose at rollover. In either case it is my personal intetntion to hold physical gold - hence the posts. If you are not interested, click on by.

Dit dot - I echo your sentiments.

Tom - I'm not a dealer, just a working Joe in IT. There is nothing I could possibly say on this forum that would have more than a snowball's chance in hell of running up the price of gold. To even suggest it is imbecellic :) No offence but the thought is risible.

As Sandy Shaw sang - click on by...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), August 26, 1999.

Andy -- I wasn't thinking of you, more of the "guru" types like Adrian Day, who has been flogging gold stocks forever. I should have been more specific.

I am convinced something is wrong with any analysis that repeatedly predicts activity that never happens. I used to think these hot shots knew what they were talking about. No longer.

If TPTB are managing the price of gold, (and I have no reason to doubt that!) that fact ought to be part of the thinking of anyone interested in gold.

Look at the long term record (see the link I posted) and you may want to reconsider your faith in gold as an investment.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), August 26, 1999.

Tom, I tend to agree with you. However, we are approaching y2k - all bets are off.

the rules have changed - TPTB know what's gonna go down in the very near future - us goldbugs are trying to fathom what ***they*** know and take advantage of it :)

personally i feel a lot happier with gold eagles than digital ones and zeroes...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), August 26, 1999.

So what is wrong with silver or platinum? If you want to hold something real, I don't care Andy. I just don't understand your fascination with gold. And I repeat, if you think the market for gold is manipulated by the biggest players in the world, WHY do you think they will drop the ball due to Y2K? Their stockpiles aren't going to evaporate.

You have to be assuming the entire world wide banking system is totally toast - and in that case your gold is going to be worth whatever the local barter market decides an ounce of shiny soft metal is worth. You might find gold trading at double silver, or three times silver, in which case the guy who bought 500 ounces of silver beats your 100 ounces of gold big time. You can't possibly predict the results if you are making that kind of assumption re the banks. Considering the number of people who are listening to the gold bugs, silver might well be the scarcer commodity.

Man, black pepper traded ounce for ounce even with gold over most of Europe for CENTURIES. If things went totally bad, you might be wishing you had bought into peppercorns instead.

Now I don't even begin to think the entire world banking system is toast. But I don't think gold is nearly the safe harbor for funds that you do, even granting your premises.

And BTW dit dot or dat dit or whatever. As I said to another fellow a couple days ago - it is real easy to mock and be brave when no one knows who you are. Come out from under the sheet and lets talk face to face, OK?

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), August 27, 1999.