someone i know asked this question on a much less popular board. i'll ask it here, and see what you all think:

>>"Does anyone know how Y2k will effect the manufacturing industry? A lot of machine tools used in manufacturing are CNC which stands for computer numerical control, which I would assume would have some type of imbedded chips thus having some danger of defect before, on or after Y2k.

Everyone knows that the average business (or person for that matter) does not take y2k seriously or does not have the capital to fix the problem (which includes the 10,000's of machine shops around the country). Now should these machine shops machine tools malfunction this would unable them to fulfill purchase orders which means that they will not get paid. This has many consequences but I will just use one. I will use the banking industry.

Now lets ASSUME that the entire banking industry is Y2k ready (only because of the billions of dollars theyve used to fix the problem). The banking industry has many different facets which one is equipment leasing and financing (a mere $300 Billion dollar a year industry). Now if these machine shops can't fulfill purchase orders and in turn they don't get paid because they don't have product, this will cripple the cash flow of any company. This will lead to defaults on loans and leases on these very machine tools that these machine shops are financing and leasing. Many banks have billions and billions of dollars of hard assets like machine tools on their portfolios. If banks survive internal malfunctions of Y2K how in the world can they survive the consequence a non-performing portfolio scenario.

Looking at this logically you will see the government, utility companies, major corporations and so on and so on are spending billions of dollars to be Y2K ready. IF THERE WAS NOT A Y2K PROBLEM THEY WOULD NOT BE TRYING TO FIX IT, I hope we all agree with that statement. Why isnt the backbone of are economy doing the same? Small companies are the backbone to our economy. If these small companies arent ready for y2k that would, at the very least, sink us into a recession. Some say nothing will happen but when I take a logical approach to the y2k matter and see small companies ignoring it, I cant see the logic of one saying y2k is a hoax or nothing is going to happen. "<<<

additionally:

>>>"I just used machinist to keep it simple. Medical equipment, construction equipment, printing equipment, woodworking equipment, computers, software, vessels, airplanes make up over 80% of equipment leasing (not including equipment financing). Equipment leasing alone totals a $300 Billion dollar a year industry. "<<<

Valid points? or no?

-- Super (Slfsl@yahoo.com), August 25, 1999

Answers

Machine shops are a very good example. They are some of those vendors down the line to which works gets outsourced. In my son-in-laws shop, they laugh when he asked about Y2K and its effect upon their new computerized equipment. He's an old style machinist who still works with the antiquated equipment in the shop...can do more accurate work by feel and in less time than the younger guys on the computer models. He was not happy with the change to the computerized equipment. And now it looks like he may be the only one who could keep the shop going come January. If there's electricity, he won't be out of work.

-- Shelia (Shelia@active-stream.com), August 25, 1999.

Most CNC equipment does not use real time clocks and is therefore not vulnerable to y2k problems.

-- dave (wootendave@hotmail.com), August 25, 1999.

The problem in manufacturing will be the eproms (embedded chips). Most machine tools have date sensitive eproms for maintenance cycles. Tests on systems from farm tractors to 5 axis machine tools with clocks rolled over to 2000 indicate that the eprom goes into a maintenance loop failure. In some cases it takes up to 90 days to isolate the noncompliant eprom. More problematic is that the eprom manufacturer may not have replacements available or they are no longer being produced. In such cases complete main boards with latest eprom techonology is installed. However, industry sources have indicated that the new boards are usually incompatable with the existing equipment requiring further retrofits. Yep, looks like this will be just another "bump in the road"...

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Y2KOK.ORG), August 25, 1999.

Thanks, dave

-- Super (Slfsl@yahoo.com), August 25, 1999.

Oh gawd! dave- I hope you're right. My husband works on CNC and doesn't believe there will be a problem. He does not want to raise the issue with the boss either. I can only wonder if they have reviewed the implications of y2k for their business.

-- Gia (laureltree7@hotmail.com), August 25, 1999.

Gee, UncleBob, I wish you could explain that part about tractors to our agricultural industry leadership. They are still in denial on embedded systems and the possibility that y2k might affect family farm operations.

-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), August 25, 1999.

Are you new to the Y2k discussion?

Looking at this logically you will see the government, utility companies, major corporations and so on and so on are spending billions of dollars to be Y2K ready.

Yes, we all agree, doomers, pollys, and trolls KNOW these facts.

IF THERE WAS NOT A Y2K PROBLEM THEY WOULD NOT BE TRYING TO FIX IT, I hope we all agree with that statement.

No arguement there. I do not believe I have read of anyone who said there never was a problem.

Why isnt the backbone of are economy doing the same?

They ARE doing the same. They do not have the greater degree of the major entities, so they do not have the cost of the major entities.

Small companies are the backbone to our economy. If these small companies arent ready for y2k that would, at the very least, sink us into a recession.

If the small companies had ignored the warnings of problems, then as suppliers they have been contacted by the major entities and warned that if they did not become compliant, they would be dropped as a supplier.

Some say nothing will happen

They may have believed that at one time, but when told that their existance depended on resolving the Y2K faults, they remediated or were dropped by those they supplied.

but when I take a logical approach to the y2k matter and see small companies ignoring it, I cant see the logic of one saying y2k is a hoax or nothing is going to happen.

Where have you seen it said that Y2K is a hoax or nothing will happen? Through awarenes, there should not be anyone who believes that. At least anyone with a vested interest in business that can be impacted. I do admit there are people who say - its no big deal, or it's a lot of hype, but those people are the ones who are not involved in the situation in any way. Such as my babysitter, the cook at the resteraunt, a hairdresser. There are many people for whom Y2K is not a concern, and have no reason to be concerned. Their opinions are irrelevent.

additionally: "I just used machinist to keep it simple. Medical equipment, construction equipment, printing equipment, woodworking equipment, computers, software, vessels, airplanes make up over 80% of equipment leasing (not including equipment financing).

I am confused as to what you are saying here. Do you think none of these have been tested and remediated? If so, then rest assured that every one of them have been scrutenised and checked and remediated and tested to the nth degree!

Equipment leasing alone totals a $300 Billion dollar a year industry.

Any company that leases non compliant equipment will not last very long.

Valid points? or no?

Valad, yes, but at this stage of awareness I do not believe there is much to worry about. Try checking some "middle of the road" sites to see what has been done to date.

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), August 25, 1999.

"Gee, UncleBob, I wish you could explain that part about tractors..."

Well, the president of the Arizona farm bureau testified before the senate last spring (no longer have the link) and basically stated that they were screwed. He stated that his company purchased two identical tractors within 4 months of each other. They rolled the clocks and one of the tractors failed and one didn't. Same make and model. When they rolled the clocks back to 1999 the failed tractor still did not work. It took factory reps over 90 days to isolate and fix the problem.

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Y2KOK.ORG), August 25, 1999.

Cherri,

Just wanted to share my personal (small business) experience with regard to Y2k and leases. I have a very small business providing computerized medication dispensers and personal response systems to elderly clients. The bulk of my business is with state and non- profit agencies to the tune of about $50,000 per year. I also have several leases for some of this equipment at $18,000 through one leasing entity - VGM out of Waterloo, Iowa. They have never asked or written to inquire about the Y2k compliancy or readiness of the equipment they "own" (I did, they are). I have no way of knowing if this is typical in the industry, only know what happens here.

It would be nice if I could just listen and read all the happy news about how seriously the businesses and utilities are taking Y2k but when I truly look at what the circumstances are in my immediate circle I am not favorably impressed. For example:

My local water district has been anxiously trying to track down a large generator to "reserve" in case the power is out for several days. They thought they could count on O.E.S., just found out they can't - OOPS! Back to square one and it is....... August/September already..... sigh. When I spoke to my county O.E.S. guy a while back they had not even inventoried the readiness and contingency capability (or lack thereof) of the water suppliers in the county. But he was very comfortable stating that they don't see any problems here (answer to my very first inquiry about Y2k readiness in my area). Oh and he also said that emergency services were all ready for Y2k, including dispatching centers, etc. I informed him that the sole ambulance provider for these local two counties still had not upgraded their computerized ambulance tracking/dispatching system - as of June - he was at a loss for words.

I am a very optimistic person usually but I can't wonder if what I found locally is typical on a larger scale but that the talking heads spew what they are told to spew and perhaps don't really know what the true status is. Hoping for best, preparing for the worst, blah, blah, blah........

-- Kristi (securxsys@cs.com), August 25, 1999.