A comment in Chap. 9 about Y2K effects not coming all at once started me wondering:

1. Isn't the majority of the "Categories 1 & 2" members of our US population pretty much expecting a January, 2000,-only time of trouble?

2. If so, and the sequence of events is similar to the 1929 Crash, what will be the general public response and/or behavior?

Now, if initial problems are not particularly onerous, what will be the response from lawmakers and the public, particularly vis-a-vis Programmers and regulation? Will there be a change over time, if effects increase over time and in severity?

Given the penchant of both parties in Congress to believe in the efficacy of "Big Gummint" to solve problems: Could we see a spate of all manner of "solutions" offered into the legislative process, if the Y2K impacts seem to run on and on and on?

Regards, Desertrat

-- Desertrat (arthur@surfsouth.com), August 23, 1999

Answers

In the 3 years prior to Jan 1 2000, most of the world did not understand y2k....why will they understand it after?

I think it will be a time of great confusion and that y2k will be the catchword but it will be hard to set the blame anywhere.

Things to expect:

1. Many people will continue to believe that panic was the problem, not broken computers.

2. As much as they suffer and crumble, big governement and big banking will be wanted back. They are pretty important to keeping big electric grids and big oil industries going anyway.

3. Just like the banking industry of today is still affected by things which happened in the Great Depression, world politics will be affected by y2k for the next 50 years.

4. After the big breakdown, there will be great returns to anyone who can fix things. Expect most countries politicians to make a call like "together we can fix this". In due time, a lot of things will be fixed.

-- Thom Gilligan (thomgill@eznet.net), August 30, 1999.

This is posted elsewhere, but I thought it fits in this thread as well.

...

In the Overiew of the World Bank's 1999/2000 World Development Report, "Entering the 21st Century," they have come to some interesting conclusions from their much touted fifty years of having funded projects in developing countries. In light of the global risks of the Year 2000 technology problem, will these insights be key to understanding how to reduce the various challenges of a post-Y2K world? The World Bank identifies two inevitable trends: globalization and localization. Will globalization and localization be relevant?

Globalization is defined as the force driving a "progressive integration of the world's economies, [requiring] national governments to reach out to international partners as the best way to manage changes affecting trade, financial flows, and the global environment." In the hypothetical aftermath of broken technologies, breakdown of communication, break down of banking and financial structures, etc. on the one hand and the internal problems of various countries, will previous attitudes about globalization change? Diminish or intensify?

Localization is defined as a force expressed in "the growing desire of people for a greater say in their government, [manifesting] itself in the assertion of regional identities. While a post-Y2K world may see a louder and more insistent desire for a say in government and, perhaps, a re-defining of government, how will localization play out if there is a general distrust of local government that failed to make emergency relief available and various contingency plans for infrastructure that got broken? I think that there will be intense mixed feelings about localization either way. What will prevail?

The four great insights that the World Banks see as key to development strategies and the stabilization of the international community are as follows:

1. Macroeconomic stability is an essential prerequisite for achieving the growth needed for development.

2. Growth does not trickle down; development must address human needs directly.

3. No one policy will trigger development; a comprehensive approach is needed.

4. Institutions matter; sustained development should be rooted in processes that are socially inclusive and responsive to changing circumstance.

Will these insights matter in a Post-Y2K world?

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), September 16, 1999.