If this was posted already, sorry... I missed this one (re: earlier Senate testimony.. another "take")... with all the Navy Y2K Pentagon Papers firestorm last week.

Diane

19 August 1999

State Department Survey Predicts Global Problems from Y2K

(Inspector General says no region will escape Y2K) (860)
By Phillip Kurata
USIA Staff Writer

http://www.usia.gov/cgi-bin/washfile/display.pl?p=/products/washfile/latest&f=99081902.clt&t=/products/washfile/newsitem.shtml

[Fair Use: For Educational/Research Purposes Only]

Washington -- A survey conducted by the U.S. State Department has produced a worrisome assessment of impending global problems related to the year 2000 (Y2K) computer date change.

"With less than six months to go before the Y2K date change, the global picture that is slowly emerging is cause for concern," State Department Inspector General Jacquelyn L. Wiliams-Bridgers said in a recent statement to the U.S. Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem.

"Our assessments suggest that the global community is likely to experience varying degrees of Y2K-related failures in every sector, in every region, and at every economic level," she added.

The State Department has surveyed 161 countries about their efforts to adjust their computer systems to avoid errors when computer calendars reach the year 2000.

The Y2K problem has arisen from the two-digit method of marking the year on software programs written decades ago but which are still in use. Analysts say the appearance of "00" on computer calendars could cause the machines to mistake year 2000 for 1900.

"In some countries, these failures could be a mere annoyance, such as a malfunctioning credit card terminal, while in others there is a clear risk that electricity, telecommunications, and other key systems will fail, perhaps creating economic havoc and social unrest," Williams-Bridgers said.

[...clear risk... WILL fail...]

The inspector general predicted disruptions in international trade, which could have a serious impact on the U.S. and world economies because of breakdowns in the supply chain.

Of the 161 countries surveyed, the inspector-general said about half are considered to be medium or high risks for Y2K failures in the telecommunications, energy, and transportation sectors.

"The situation is noticeably better in the finance and water/waste water sectors, where around two-thirds of the world's countries are reported to have a low probability of experiencing Y2K-related failures," she added.

The majority and most serious of the Y2K failures are likely to occur in developing countries and the countries that once made up the Soviet bloc, Williams-Bridgers said.

She said from 52 to 68 of the 98 developing countries surveyed are at medium or high risk in the telecommunications, transportation, and energy sectors.

India, she said, is poorly prepared for the millennium change. Y2K remediation work has not been completed in any sector, and contingency planning has barely begun, she said.

"Most worrisome is the potential vulnerability of the 70 percent of the electrical power sector controlled by the State Electricity Boards, large parts of which only now are beginning basic inventories and assessments," she said.

With regard to China, the inspector general spoke of "cautious optimism" about Y2K readiness in the world's most populous country. She said Chinese officials have expressed confidence about the electric power grid but are worried about railroad freight, medical devices and embedded chips.

The People's Daily, the Chinese Communist Party newspaper, has reported that 70 percent of the large and medium-sized businesses in China do not take Y2K seriously. The People's Daily commented that China's widespread use of obsolete computers and pirated software is another factor that puts the country at Y2K risk.

The computer systems used in Ethiopia's air transport, electricity, and water sectors appear to be compliant, but the telecommunications sector appears to be lagging, Williams-Bridgers said.

At a roundtable discussion in one Middle Eastern country, the inspector general said businessmen expressed fears that breakdowns could occur in utilities, telecommunications, medical services, food distribution and the aviation system. One report suggested that water may be the weakest link in Y2K preparedness in the Middle East, she said.

The State Department surveyed 24 countries in the former Soviet bloc. Fourteen of them were rated as being at medium or high risk in the telecommunications sector; 15, in the transportation sector; and, 17, in the energy sector.

Despite concerns about the energy sector, the inspector-general reported that the Russian nuclear power systems appear to have been adjusted for the millennium date change.

"The nuclear sector reports that all safety systems are Y2K compliant, and provisions are being made to ensure that back-up power will be available," Williams-Bridgers said. "Plant operations computers may have undiagnosed problems that could force a shutdown, but we expect safety systems will work as needed."

Commenting on an unnamed Balkan country, the inspector general said the Y2K remediation campaign is disorganized and under-funded but has some positives.

"While the telecommunications, air transportation and financial sectors are largely compliant, or likely will be by year-end, other sectors, including water purification, rail transportation, and the all important energy sector appear to be lagging far behind," Williams-Bridgers said.

With a little more than four months remaining before January 1, 2000, the State Department is heading a U.S. effort to encourage Y2K contingency planning.

In August, the State Department is notifying selected governments of its concerns of Y2K problems that could affect U.S. citizens living or traveling in those countries. In September, the department's Bureau of Consular Affairs will publicize its concerns to the traveling public when it issues consular information sheets concerning Y2K.

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), August 23, 1999

Answers

Diane;

You are such a bearer of Good tidings this morning!

Maybe you sould go back on vacation ;) and I would not have to hear about all this STUFF!!!!

Thanks for the post.

-- helium (heliumavid@yahoo.com), August 23, 1999.

Ok-- what's going on here????

I just read in a thread below, that everything is A-ok because the stock market is doing so good! Does'nt the left hand tell the right hand what each other is saying??

Not only that but now AP reports that there were several glitches with GPS so What the hell is going on???

MY POOR HEAD IS [SPIN]NING!!! dAMMIT!! What a joke--

-- David Butts (dciinc@aol.com), August 23, 1999.

LOL helium.

Okay. I'm about to take a long hike and inhale a latte. (May or may not make it back later).

Time... to "time out"... and sniff the roses.

;-D

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), August 23, 1999.

Diane: Thanks for the post. For all the ole Vietnam Vets-does the present scenario remind you of LBJ and his sidekick McNamara? There's a light at the end of the tunnel type thingy? We always said that light was the business end of an AK-47 aimed at us! Thinking your right but hoping your not.Sipping my coffee and brandy!

-- Neil G.Lewis (pnglewis1@yahoo.com), August 23, 1999.

Diane:

You simply must be a lady of unbridled, brimming optimism to remain a "Hi-tech" 5 as the info flows in.......

Neil:

Funny, I was just thinking about that comparison this morning. I'm just a bit too young to have served in Vietnam, but "smoke and mirrors" sure sounds the same:

"Look at how many tons of bombs we dropped this week"

"Body count"

"percentages" (of what?)

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), August 23, 1999.

C'mon guys, it can't happen here, the Czar has told us that a million times, when you gonna get it through your heads? What happens in other countries is their problem, right? And everybody knows the folks in Foggy Bottom are afraid of their own shadows. I'll bet that State Dept. study is already outdated, anyway.

As with a number of other government reports, this one -- if it does show up in the media -- won't be on the front page. And it's a sure bet it won't provoke any public discussion of the interconnectedness of the world economy, or our dependence on it.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), August 23, 1999.

Diane:

Better watch all that inhaling and sniffing. It might go to your head!

Then the press will pick up on it, and there goes your credibility!

Godspeed,

Sniff em if ya got em.

-- Pinkrock (aphotonboy@aol.com), August 24, 1999.