OT US economy straining at the seemsgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
title of Economist article: http://www.economist.com/editorial/freeforall/current/us9460.html
UNITED STATES Straining at the seams
Americas inflation is low, but the economy is still dangerously stretched More about Americas economy Resources Search archive
[..] Two important and related uncertainties could cloud this picture. One is the stockmarket. If Wall Street shrugs off higher interest rates entirely, as it did in June, an orderly slowdown will be harder to achieve. Conversely, a big correction in the stockmarket could precipitate an uncomfortably sharp slowdown. The other unknown is how foreigners will behave. Americas trade deficit rose to a record $24.6 billion in June, and the country is heading for a current-account deficit of 4% of GDP this year. As the economies of Europe and Asia perk up, foreign investors who are financing this sizeable deficit may demand substantially higher interest rates to do so.
The recent slide in the dollar and the strengthening in bond yields could be but the beginning. If foreign sentiment turns sharply, Americas much-needed economic slowdown could occur more suddenly than anyone expected. And Alan Greenspan would then no longer seem a demi-god.
-- Drken (Drken@bubble.gone), August 22, 1999
The bubble will burst.
Prepare for the worst.
-- Randolph (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 23, 1999.
The bubble will pop Prepare for a flop.
-- enough is (email@example.com), August 23, 1999.
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), August 23, 1999.