http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19990819/V000093-081999-idx.html

-- a (a@a.a), August 19, 1999

Answers

Navy Predicts Widespread Y2K Failure

By Ted Bridis Associated Press Writer Thursday, August 19, 1999; 7:27 p.m. EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A Navy report predicts ``probable'' or ``likely'' failures in electrical and water systems for many cities because of the Year 2000 technology problem -- an assessment more dire than any other made by the government.

President Clinton's top Y2K adviser, John Koskinen, called the Navy's conclusions overly cautious, saying they assumed that major utilities would fail unless proved otherwise.

The most recent version of the study, updated less than two weeks ago, predicted ``probable'' or ``likely'' partial failures in electric utilities that serve nearly 60 of roughly 400 Navy and Marine Corps facilities.

The study predicted ``likely'' partial electrical failures, for example, at facilities in Orlando, Fla.; Gulfport, Miss.; Fort Lauderdale, Fla.; and nine other small- to mid-size cities.

It also predicted ``probable'' partial water system failures in Dallas; Nashville, Tenn.; Houston; Baton Rouge, La.; Montgomery, Ala; Tulsa, Okla.; and 59 other cities.

The study forecast likely partial natural gas failures -- in the middle of winter -- in Albany, N.Y.; Fort Worth, Texas; Pensacola, Fla.; Charleston, S.C.; Columbus, Ohio; and Nashville.

The military report contrasts sharply with predictions from the White House, which weeks ago said in a report that national electrical failures are ``highly unlikely.'' The White House report also said disruptions in water service from the date rollover are ``increasingly unlikely.''

Koskinen, who vouched for the authenticity of the Navy report, noted that all its worst-case predictions for failures were marked as ``interim'' or ``partial'' assessments.

``It's not nearly as interesting as the world coming to an end,'' said Koskinen. ``The way they worked was, until you have information for contingency planning purposes, you ought to assume there was a problem.''

The Year 2000 problem occurs because some computer programs, especially older ones, might fail when the date changes to 2000. Because the programs were written to recognize only the last two digits of a year, such programs could read the digits ``00'' as 1900 instead of 2000, potentially causing problems with financial transactions, airline schedules and electrical grids.

The Navy report was first summarized on an Internet site run by Jim Lord, a Y2K author, who said he obtained it ``from a confidential source of the highest reliability and integrity.''

``The military has to work from the worst case, but so do we,'' Lord told The Associated Press on Thursday. ``It's reprehensible for them to know this and keep it from us.''

Koskinen said the Navy wasn't withholding information from anyone, noting that the continually updated report was available until recently on a Web site maintained by the Defense Department.

``The last people in the world the department is going to keep information from is their own people,'' Koskinen said. ``In fact, the whole purpose of the exercise is to make sure they can provide appropriate information to servicemen on their bases and their families.

The report was pulled off the Web site two weeks, Koskinen said. Neither he nor Defense Department officials offered any reason why.

) Copyright 1999 The Associated Press

-- a (a@a.a), August 19, 1999.

Thanks "a", here is the link:

Washington Post Article

I think it is IMPORTANT to remember that this list only relates to cities that are located near these military facilities.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 19, 1999.

So Whaddaya think...???

Maybe this will wake a few people up?

Thank you Jim Lord.

-- Kristi (securxsys@cs.com), August 19, 1999.

Ordinarily I would think this would wake up the sleeping public but apparently there is no way to overestimate the complacency of the American people. We'll see if this causes any stir at all.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), August 19, 1999.

So it's confirmed...there is now an official line(Navy) that differs with the Kosky line.

I smell a RAT.

-- K. Stevens (kstevens@It's ALL going away in January.com), August 19, 1999.

Jim Lord published the report this morning, and by 7:30PM, AP had a story out on it. Cool!

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), August 19, 1999.

I didn't know if this would go mainstream. Now it has. Without the internet, it never would have.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), August 19, 1999.

There was almost no way they could NOT publish this! Man, did they work fast!

At the very least, Jim Lord is somehow vindicated; at most, this may be a huge trigger to raise Y2K awareness. Jim, history may refer to you as the "Daniel Ellsberg of Y2K."

I'll bet Koskinen and Clinton are PISSED right now! Of course, by releasing this, they're taking some of the "mystery" out of the whole thing, which may serve to quiet things down quickly. May not be a "bad move" on their part.

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), August 19, 1999.

Koskinen comment:

"``The last people in the world the department is going to keep information from is their own people,'' Koskinen said. ``In fact, the whole purpose of the exercise is to make sure they can provide appropriate information to servicemen on their bases and their families. "

Well now isn't that an interesting comment Mr. Kosikinen.

Is it fair to say that the last people in the world that YOU would keep information from would be the American public??

Ray

-- Ray (ray@tottacc.com), August 19, 1999.

can someone else try to access Jim Lords site where this document was located... i think it's been pulled.

Mike

================================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), August 19, 1999.

Actually, the URL has been changed. The new URL is:

http://www.jimlord.to/secretsurvey.html

or simply:

http://www.jimlord.to

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), August 19, 1999.

They've admitted it and spun it. The only reason (duh) they admitted it was Lord pushed it in their face. The same day. Um. That's known as a clue.

Now, here is the bottom line: the report is authentic (which is different than saying the data is accurate. We have no way to know, nor, perhaps, do its authors).

Here is the other bottom line: by admitting it immediately and spinning it, this will take its place with the rest of the "old news" about Y2K. It will NOT spur preparation except among those with eyes and ears.

You gotta hand it to Koskinen. This guy is good.

I mean, bad.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), August 19, 1999.

Mike and pshannon, just tried all those urls and could not get in. Will try again. read the report earlier this am at the initial site.

-- Barb (awaltrip@telepath.com), August 19, 1999.

pshannon, neither of those links work!!

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 19, 1999.

Mike, it seems that he only changed the directory, it is still accessible to this address http://www.jimlord.to/

-- Chris (%$^&^@pond.com), August 19, 1999.

ps... I'm getting 404 server errors with those urls...

Mike

=====================================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), August 19, 1999.

Tried again,pshannon's urls and the original from this am. No answer.

-- Barb (awaltrip@telepath.com), August 19, 1999.

Tried Chris's link, too. Doesn't work. Weird.

-- Barb (awaltrip@telepath.com), August 19, 1999.

I'm getting 403 errors, not 404. 403 means access is forbidden.

Very curious.

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), August 19, 1999.

Wow!

Jim Lord kicked the Worshington Pravda's butt.

OK, now back to work, everyone. OddOne's getting more White LEDs, anyone from the first buy who has built some interesting flashlights or lamps, write it up and post it here, email it to me, or send it to click on dc-y2k-wrp.

Rice, beans, canned tuna, batteries, firewood, lots to do.

-- cory (kiyoinc@ibm.XOUT.net), August 19, 1999.

Chris...I'm still getting errors...

John Koskinen, called the Navy's conclusions overly cautious, saying they assumed that major utilities would fail unless proved otherwise."

uh...duh.

Read that again. the Navy's conclusions are OVERLY CAUTIOUS because they assumed that MAJOR UTILITIES would FAIL unless PROVED OTHERWISE

isn't that the way it works? if a utility cannot PROVE it will be able to provide service then can it be assumed that the utility will, in essence, fail?

why don't reporters call this guy on some of this stuff he is saying?

Mike

=============================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), August 19, 1999.

Worshington Pravda

Cory, that's a classic... but kinda sad too, huh?

Mike

==================================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), August 19, 1999.

Keep trying, I'm sure his server is busy. Hot story. The page has changed in layout, but it's still the same article. Took me forever to download.

-- Chris (%$^&^@pond.com), August 19, 1999.

Just tried the URL. Got error msg 404--File Not Found. THEN CLICKED REFRESH and the site connected.

-- cb (refresh@web.page), August 19, 1999.

Mike, "isn't that the way it works?"

You got to hand it to Clinton he knows how to pick his PR people. Koskinen was sure on the ball today for "damage control" spining.

-- Chris (%$^&^@pond.com), August 19, 1999.

They printed the story so now private citizens won't bombard the government for Freedom of Information Act papers......

-- KLT (KLTEVC@aol.com), August 19, 1999.

No more 403 errors. Now the server can't even be found.

Probably just a bump in the road.

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), August 19, 1999.

When you get the error message do a "Refresh" it worked for me!!

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 19, 1999.

wow...amazing.

If this site is that overloaded already then this story may be way more than anticipated. I'm really fearful that a panic could be caused by this. Especially in light of the fact that Gary North will be on Art Bell tonight.

Am I totally daffy or didn't someone predict that by mid August a major shift would have taken place? Tomorrow they may be eligible for the cash jackpot. I think it comes directly out of the Y2k Czar's budget.

Mike

============================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), August 19, 1999.

Try this site

http://www.jimlord.to/CitiesatRisk.cfm

-- lurking (lurking@home.com), August 19, 1999.

I can't say I recall ever seeing an 'official' reaction so swift before. Lord releases info and in what, 12 hours? Kosky is waying in via web and WP has an article posted.

Methinks I smell a raw nerve.

-- Art (artw@lancnews.infi.net), August 19, 1999.

I assume that if it just got "published" by the WASHINGTON POST, that it has not actually appeared IN PRINT yet. The article does not indicate what page of a printed newspaper that it will appear. That could make A LOT OF DIFFERENCE on how the readers react.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), August 19, 1999.

I just wanted to say thank-you to Ted Bridis, too!!!

-- Gayla (privacy@please.com), August 19, 1999.

* * * * * * * * UNCLASSIFIED * * * * * * * * ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE ROUTINE R 151551Z JUN 99 ZYB MIN PSN 277503J24 FM CNO WASHINGTON DC//N4// TO NAVADMIN INFO ASSTSECNAV IE WASHINGTON DC//IE// UNCLAS //N02000// NAVADMIN 171/99 MSGID/GENADMIN/CNO WASHINGTON DC// SUBJ/Y2K SITREP 007 - CLARIFICATION OF TESTING, CERTIFICATION, AND REPORTING REQUIREMENTS//

REF/A/RMG/CNO WASHINGTON DC/161558ZMAR99// REF/B/RMG/COMNAVFACENGCOM WASHINGTON DC/151038ZDEC98//

NARR/ REF A, NAVADMIN 069/99, PROVIDED GUIDANCE WRT COMMAND-WIDE TESTING. REF B DETAILS CNO Y2K PROGRESS REPORTING REQUIREMENTS// RMKS/

1. THIS MESSAGE REITERATES COMMAND-WIDE TESTING, CERTIFICATION, AND REPORTING REQUIREMENTS PROVIDED REFS A AND B.

2. ALL NAVY ASHORE COMMANDS - NOT HOST INSTALLATIONS ALONE - ARE REQUIRED TO CONDUCT A COMMAND-WIDE Y2K TEST NLT 30 JUNE. THIS INCLUDES TENANTS AND COMMANDS LOCATED IN LEASED SPACES.

3. TESTING: INSTALLATION LEVEL TEST PARAMETERS ARE WELL DEFINED AND AVAILABLE AT WWW.NFESC.NAVY.MIL/Y2K AND WWW.N4.HQ.NAVY.MIL/Y2K. INSTALLATION LEVEL TESTING MUST INCLUDE: (1) BOS FUNCTIONS, (2) ALL POR AND NON-POR Y2K VULNERABLE PROPERTY ASSOCIATED WITH OTHER CORE MISSION AREAS. TEST PARAMETERS FOR NON-INSTALLATION COMMANDS (TENANTS) HAVE BEEN DELEGATED TO ECHELON II COMMANDERS WHO OWN / ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TENANT'S MISSION. INSTALLATION TEST PARAMETERS MAY BE USED FOR TENANT COMMANDS AS GUIDANCE IF DESIRED. HOSTS AND TENANTS TESTS CAN BE CONDUCTED CONCURRENTLY OR INDEPENDENTLY.

4. CERTIFICATION: ALL NAVY ASHORE COMMANDS (HOSTS AND TENANTS) WERE TO CERTIFY THAT THEIR ACTIVITY WAS Y2K COMPLIANT NLT 31 MARCH 1999. COMMAND-WIDE TESTING WOULD VALIDATE THAT CERTIFICATION. INSTALLATION CERTIFICATION REQUIREMENTS ARE WELL DEFINED AND APPEAR AT WWW.N4.HQ.NAVY.MIL/Y2K (UNDER SITREPS). CERTIFICATION REQUIREMENTS FOR NON-INSTALLATION COMMANDS (TENANTS) ARE DELEGATED TO ECHELON II COMMANDERS WHO OWN / ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TENANT'S MISSION. INSTALLATION CERTIFICATION REQUIREMENTS MAY BE USED FOR TENANT COMMANDS AS GUIDANCE IF DESIRED.

5. RECORDSKEEPING: SUBMISSION AND COLLECTION OF INDIVIDUAL COMMANDS' WRITTEN CERTIFICATION FOR BOTH HOSTS AND TENANTS IS DELEGATED TO ECHELON II COMMANDERS. ECHELON II COMMANDERS MUST CERTIFY AS SOON AS PRACTICABLE BY NAVAL MESSAGE TO CNO, N4 AND DON CIO, WITH INFO TO NAVFAC THAT ALL ACTIVITIES / UNITS UNDER THEIR COMMAND / RESPONSIBILITY INCLUDING THEIR HQ UIC ARE Y2K COMPLIANT.

6. REPORTING: ECHELON II COMMANDS HAVE TWO SEPARATE PROGRESS REPORTING REQUIREMENTS. AS PER REF B, ONE REPORT, THE SCORECARD FOR ASHORE INFRASTRUCTURE, IS SUBMITTED TO NAVFACENGCOM. IT REPORTS PROGRESS AND STATUS OF Y2K VULNERABLE PROPERTY ACROSS ALL CLASSES OF PROPERTY FOR ALL NAVY COMMANDS, BOTH HOSTS AND TENANTS. A SEPARATE REPORT, THE NAVY FACILITIES Y2K STATUS - CLASS II ONLY, IS SUBMITTED TO CNO N44. THIS REPORT ONLY ADDRESSES CLASS II PROPERTY AND HOSTS. N44 AND NAVFAC RECONCILE THE DIFFERENCES. REQUEST LOCAL REVIEW OF THESE REPORTS PRIOR TO SUBMITTAL TO MINIMIZE RECONCILLATION AND DELAY IN REPORTING TO SENIOR MANAGEMENT.

7. MY POC AT

OPNAV IS CDR xxxxxxx, CNO N4T, DSN: xxxxxx, COMM: xxxxxx, EMAIL: xxx@HQ.NAVY.MIL ; NAVFAC: CDR xxxxxx, DSN: xxxxxx, COMM: xxxxxx, EMAIL: xxx@NAVFAC.NAVY.MIL .

8. RELEASED BY VADM xxxxxx, DCNO LOGISTICS.//

BT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- --

-- anymouse (NoWay@No.How), August 19, 1999.

Oh Man! I'll bet our man Kosky is hittin the Rolaids tonight...I'd give anything right now to be Matt Drudge.

-- Gia (laureltree7@hotmail.com), August 19, 1999.

And Andy said the stock market would crash tomorrow(Friday) did he not?? Perhaps he will be right after all......

-- farmer (hillsidefarm@drbs.net), August 19, 1999.

Gawd, where is Maria when we need her?

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), August 19, 1999.

Trying to see that this thread has links to all the others...

Koskinen's "Take" On Jim Lord's Pentagon Papers (Steve Davis-- Coalition 2000))

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 001GgI

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), August 19, 1999.

"You can fool part of the people all the time and all of the people part of the time, but you can't fool all people all the time"- Abraham Lincoln

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), August 19, 1999.

U.S. Naval War College web site: "nwc.navy.mil/dsd/y2ksited/y2kproj.htm" Has been there for months. Some of their conlusions are classified. If too many of you try to get on a web site, access will be denied due to overload. So, if you do not succeed, try again later. A lot of stuff in there. I downloaded it in April for the first time. When I found your forum I thought that you all already knew about the U.S. Naval War College "get toghether" to study the Y2K problem. aster

-- aster (cimbri1@aol.com), August 19, 1999.

I don't know, George, we will see. It is easy to fool people who desperately want to be fooled. There is nothing in that Navy report that has not already been documented elsewhere, albeit having it all in one place, from an official Govt source, and of recent vintage obviously makes it kind of hard to kgnore....

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), August 19, 1999.

This is/was a major story and as someone said ,Jim Lord, and those who republished this, are somewhat vindicated.

But to me the signs of this becoming "old news" by tommorrow are aready there. Hope I'm wrong, but like BigDog don't expect this to wake the general public --- spin already working.

They (spinners are learning from Clinton and now fo it well. Theres a great supply of other news (earthquake, gun control) to bury this.

We'll see ---- hope I'm wrong.

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), August 19, 1999.

Aster, the Naval War College study/scenarios was posted and discussed here a few months ago, it's in the archives. The reason this article uncovered by Jim Lord is so hot is because it contradics what Koskinen has been saying publicly, that infrastructure problems in major cities were "highly unlikely", when the DoD expects "highly likely" major disruptions. Koskinen is finally exposed and validated by credible sources.

-- Chris (%$^&^@pond.com), August 19, 1999.

I just got back into Jim Lord's site. There is a place to download the this in either word or PDF format. Why not do it so you have your own and not have to worry if his site becomes unavailable?

-- (cannot-say@this.time), August 19, 1999.

Here's why I don't see this being old news by tomorrow.

Gary North is on Art Bell tonight. Perhaps millions of people who had no access to this story today will find out about it tonight. Considering that this show is carried by a lot of talk radio/news radio stations, this story may actually not even get "legs" until tomorrow.

Then again, it could slip away into the night like so many other hair raising disclosures...should be interesting.

Mike

==============================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), August 19, 1999.

Link to the Tonga site: http://209.26.202.182/

Has anyone seen any coverage of the "Secret Survey" in overseas media?

Incidentally, a very interesting aspect of the Naval War College study is the listings of participants in the different sections.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), August 20, 1999.

Just heard a 30 second summary of the story on CBS radio news. Should be on CNN soon at this rate.

Tick... Tock... <:00=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), August 20, 1999.

He was doing ok until he tried to sell me a protest pack. "1 @ $4.50, or for a limited time 100 @ $4.00 a pop.

-- Laughing all the way (totheB@nk.com), August 20, 1999.

a protest pack... it contains a video and other materials and it's shipped to you... do you think this guy is making a lot of money doing this?

buy a clue, wouldja?
-- Hey Laughing (know anything @bout business.?), August 20, 1999.

off

-- test (test@test.test), August 20, 1999.

Laughing all the way,

Yea, get real will ya! Next, you will be telling us about how much money Ed Yourdon made off of his book. Guess what. Ed had his book available for FREE on his web site for quite a while. I think he did a great thing by bringing the information to people that don't have a computer, still a vast majority of people in this country, and the rest of the world.

This problem is real. Most sites that I have visited, that do have something to "sell" are only trying to cover their costs. You think what you want. I haven't spent $.01 on Ed Yourdon, Rick Cowles, Les Rayburn, or any of the thousands of other "capitalists" out there that are trying to "profit" from Y2K. I don't need to. I have internet access...

Tick... Tock... <:00=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), August 20, 1999.

"You can fool most of the people most of the time -- and that's all I need" -- A. Politician

BTW -- Gary North is kicking butt on the Art Bell show this very moment. Had extensive discussion of Lord's post, and the reason for the Tonga (.to) site, Kosky, etc.

-- A (A@AisA.com), August 20, 1999.

Just saw the August 19th post story on the web.

Today is August 2oth,--- is it standard practice to list the web story as the 19th and have the PAPER story on the 20th???

Just curious!

-- David Butts (dciinc@aol.com), August 20, 1999.