As much as the American people grumble about government intervention, control, taxes, etc., I am still of a strong opinion that the majority of people will be begging for the troups to step in and stop the violence and looting. City dwellers are going to experience the greatest threat of violence and will need gov't assistance (NG,Army,police, etc.) for protection. Also, I think there will be an effort to contain violence by containing people. (Our local city's biggest y2k expenditure has been cones, barricades and vests and shields, helmets, etc for crowd control.) If you are in a "burn baby burn" area, you may not be allowed to leave and your area may be cordoned off from the rest of the city. If the whole city is burning, the whole city population may be shuttled around within its confines and not allowed out into the 'burbs or rural areas. And after a few days of no services, dead bodies and animals, human waste in the street, contaminated water, etc., there will be cholera and other diseases of pollution popping up. Then we outside the city will be demanding that the city be quarantined. If it comes to this point, there will be martial law. However,..... based on our history, I wonder if the gov't isn't smart enuff to evoke curfews ahead of time and perhaps prevent some of the carnage? For instance, on Dec 28th, after everyone has gotten back home from Christmas, a curfew could be put into place that would involve ALL CITIZENS. Everyone could have to be off the street by 7pm. Those who work later would have some kind of ID that gives them a variance. In additin, rationing of essentials could be ready to put into place. This could take on the form of the rationing system we had in WWII or it could be just in the populated areas and be vouchers for water and food from designated spots set up by FEMA. And then, last but not least, looters should be shot on the spot!! It seems to me, if all this was laid out to the public in advance and in no uncertain terms, the public would go along with it. Personally, I would rather see some boys in uniform walking down my road than looters coming my direction. It may even come to where people would take in a soldier and be responsible for his shelter and food while he patrols the neighborhood. I think there will have to be lots of controls, but if the people themselves feel that they are an integral part of keeping this nation together and putting HD back together they could become very inovative and responsible. There are times in life that in order for the individualist to survive, he must join hands with others.

Just Taz a ramblin' on!

-- Taz (Tassie@aol.com), August 18, 1999

Answers

Taz,

Interesting points ... but I agree with coprolith's comments posted immediate above mine (assuming this Greenspun software doesn't stick my message somewhere else in the thread!) -- i.e., it's all going to depend on just how serious Y2K turns out to be.

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (HumptyDumptyY2K@yourdon.com), August 21, 1999.

> the majority of people will be begging for the troups to step > in and stop the violence and looting.

A lot of us fear that the majority of the violence and looting will be *committed* by government troops enforcing tyrannical and unconstitutional presidential edicts. Violence and intimidation are what governments do best; they're rather poor at disaster relief and actually protecting people from violence. (Criminological research has shown that money spent by private parties to prevent crime is much more effective, dollar per dollar, than money spent by government for the same purpose.)

> Personally, I would rather see some boys in uniform walking down my > road than looters coming my direction.

If you've made any substantial preparations for Y2K, those boys in uniform will *be* government-sanctioned looters coming in your direction to confiscate the goods you sweated and sacrificed to obtain.

-- Kevin S. Van Horn (ksvhsoft@xmission.com), August 18, 1999.

Taz ... Nice post . Also, VERY well thought out reply and , IMHO, the correct interpertation of eventual reality in both cases. Keep a low profile Taz ! Eagle

-- (e999eagle@freewwweb.com), August 18, 1999.

Taz: what if those nice young boys in uniform are the looters?

-- cody varian (cody@y2ksurvive.com), August 18, 1999.

(1) I don't think that ALL areas will have violence and looting. If we believed that, we wouldn't be living in rural areas...at some distance from major metropolitan areas...(because things wouldn't be any worse in the city than in the country!).

(2) Riot/curfew obsrvation. It took a while during the Rodney King riots in LA to set up a curfew. And when they did, it was set up for the entire city, not just the areas in which violence was happening. I was a long ways away, in a peaceful area...and was shut down, anyway.

(3) Curfew and blackout. If the power is out and a curfew is established, what will happen? People won't have TV to divert themselves...will they continue to riot and loot, or will they find other pastimes? No answers to this, just questions...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), August 19, 1999.

I am aware that the the looters may be in uniform. But I don't think that is going to happen right away. The rioters and fires, etc will have to be contained first before they (gov't)get organized. I know, I worry about my preps and our generator being confiscated for "the good of the people". I am doing serious thinking re moving some preps out of the house and into a hole or somewheres. We are also having a 2nd well dug and having a deep well pitcher pump put onto it. So we will have water and then the neighbors can pump their own out of it. Our nearest big city is 80 miles away. I don't worry about riots here. I do worry about some camper setting the forest on fire, however, the forestry came through last week and burned out all the underbrush in controlled burns. Lots of things to worry about. The 'old days' weren't so hot, but they didn't have to worry much about the gubmint taking their food. Somedays I think the DGI and DWGI are the smart ones. They aren't spending money and sleepless nights and the gov't will probably take care of them. And I think we had better HOPE the gov't takes care of them. Ah well....first we have to get through what is predicted as one of the worst hurricane seasons.

Taz...who is getting downright befuddled over all of this. Hope Ed finishes his book soon so I can sort of organize my gray matter. My synapses are going astray right now. LOL

-- Taz (Tassie@aol.com), August 19, 1999.

And another thought (have to post them, they come so seldom). After the dust and smoke settles,and enuff looters have been shot that people are thinking twice about that, and FEMA has a soup kitchen on every major corner and people are still numb from their experience, what happens next? As people see the distruction of their world and as their fluid and caloric intake is cut, they will become lethargic and just sort of lay around or wander aimlessly. Who is going to organize them and get them off of dead center and into rehabbing their lives? And while this is going on, what is happening at the VA hospital, the nursing home down the street, etc? At first there will be all kinds of people and organizations running around with their badges. That only lasts a few weeks and then everyone poops out and wants to go home. You can see this at any major natural disaster. I like to think that the phrase of "when the going gets tough, the tough get going". But there aren't too many tough ones around anymore. I think in the long run, if we have over a 7-8, you are going to see more deaths along in April than is Jan. It will be the infirm,.. and those who have given up. They will be just quietly slipping away in the night without fanfare. Nature does cull her crop, whether we like it or not. In a nut shell, what I am trying to say is that along with acceptance of the situation, will come defeat. There will be a long lull of little activity and of little interest. America has never had to really be confronted with this type of adversity. And unfortunately, most Americans have never even read about such thing to mentally prepare them. How many DGI might GI if they but read the "Grapes of Wrath"?

Taz...just babblin'

-- Taz (Tassie@aol.com), August 19, 1999.

Taz, re: After the dust and smoke settles . . . and people are still numb from their experience, what happens next? As people see the distruction of their world and as their fluid and caloric intake is cut, they will become lethargic and just sort of lay around or wander aimlessly. Who is going to organize them and get them off of dead center and into rehabbing their lives?

I think this will be a temporary phase. There will always be somebody with an eye to better his/her condition (I'm talking legally, here). The Grapes of Wrath was a horrific book but it was not permanent. My grandparents lived it, came to California over the old Highway 40 with everything they owned strapped to their car and trailer. They settled on the (then) edge of Fresno and managed to scrape together enough cash to build a house, pay the land taxes, and still loan a few hundred dollars to a neighbor to help build an autobody shop in the neighborhood. Back then, nobody in the neighborhood had a NIMBY problem and the business was welcome. My grandparents got the money back with interest, too. Later, one of my uncles got started in the autobody business by working part time at the neighbor's place.

While I would agree about the numbness for the short term, I also think there will be a lot of stories like my grandparents' and their neighbors. I am looking beyond the cull, to a time when people accept the new state of affairs and start to rebuild on that.

-- Margaret (janssm@aol.com), August 19, 1999.

Margaret...I hope you are right. But I think the key word regarding your folks is "from". Where did they come "from" and I don't mean that geographically. Where your parents came "from" and where the people under 40 in this country come "from" is two different worlds. Your parents lived though adversity. As the modern ones say, "SH.. Happens". But your parents did not feel that their physical needs were "due" them. That the government or one of its agencies (welfare, SSI, etc) SHOULD take care of them. They had a sense of self responsibility and took pride in not taking handouts or being dependent on others. Its not that way today. Sheeple is a VERY good term for the masses. They will herd very easily. They will BEG for someone/some agency to be responsible for them. "I have come to take you to the shelter" will be welcome words. There are also millions of us that will fight tooth and nail for survival and what is right. We carry our values with us at all times. But how many of the sheeple are we going to be willing to carry? Are we to organize them into slave labor for food in order to get them off their butts? I don't know the answer. I just know that after reading Jim Lord and that secret document from the USN today, that I have little hope of anything less than a 10. Taz...who is wishing she had stayed in the Cascade Mtns.

-- Taz (Tassie@aol.com), August 19, 1999.

If y2k is mild...lots of talk, a few hearings and it dies away in public imagination.

If y2k is moderate (4-6)...Fedgov Gets Serious and imposes more red tape on all kinds of business and local/state govt. transactions, which hinder recovery from recession and shackle the free market. In the longterm, there is backlash toward a "global-local" economy where Feds lose their share of power.

If y2k is severe(7-8.5)...Fedgov imposes draconian emergency measures to restore order and keep people busy and not burning stuff, not unlike the New Deal combined with sporadic curfews, rationings, and controls. The immmediate result is that we get saved, not hosed, by Uncle Sam. The downside is that after the emergency, Uncle Sam does not return all of these powers back to the people, where the true innovation, industriousness, and greatness of America lies.

If Y2k is really really bad ( > 8.5 ), Uncle Sam tries but is too impotent to impose much control over anything at all. Under the subapocalypitc scenario, local and state governments take up the slack and gradually things recover largely free of Washington. If things Go Postman, government is at best in small city-states and at worst under armed thugs and kleptocrats and warlords.

-- coprolith (coprolith@rocketship.com), August 21, 1999.

Coprolith and Ed... I am not so sure that I totally agree with you. If its a bump in the road, ok. The sheeple will handle it. But when you get above that,the start of it all might even be dependent upon the geographic location of the road that gets the bump. The right...or wrong...road gets bumped and there are going to be riots. There are riots now in some cities whenever there is an "excuse". It is a "recreational high" for lots of people. And while the bump might not take us down, the riots could be the thing that drops the first dominoe.(I always have to laff when I thnk of this scenario, because I always have the image of the idiots hauling big TVs and VCRs out of the stores...all those expensive items that require electricity). I think it will come down to WHERE the bump is. (so much for "localized outages") If the lights go out in LA there will be looting and riots because of OPPORTUNITY, not out of fear or problem recognition. Most of those on the streets with the TVs in the grocery store cart will have no concept of y2k or that the lights might not come back on. And when the blacks in South LA start burning and shooting the Koreans, this time there will be all out war. The Korean community is prepared this time and they aren't going to put up with it again. So a good riot can esculate very quickly to the whole city (downtown) and then because of media, or lack of media, and because of racial pressures, it will leap like a fire storm into the next city. These people aren't going to be sitting at home saying, "dang, the doomers were right!" It will take a few days before they realize that the city is burning down because there is no power to move the water thus the hydrants are dry... and the hydrants are dry due to Y2K. And once it gets going, you had better hope that the telecommunications and TV ARE down. Because when it all gets national coverage it will soon be coming to your back yard. Forget reason or common sense. It will not exist in these burned out areas. It doesn't now and it won't then.

Taz..who just rocks and knits and thinks and snores and then gets up and goes to check the forum.

-- Taz (Tassie@aol.com), August 21, 1999.

I think there will be a government "show of force" BEFORE 1/01/00, whether it be National Guard, fed troops or what. As I understand it, the Nat. Guard is on alert for this date, and the activation order will probably come down 48 hours before the appointed time. No need to panic the sleeping populous.

Frankly, I would prefer it THAT way, than a violent response, such as Waco or Ruby Ridge.

Still, humans have a tendency to become quiet first in a crises. The violence will come when the creature comforts run out, and the govt. will not, or can not fill the need.

The response could be: "we're all in this together" so no need to get rowdy. Usually it is envy which creates the anger and violence.

-- W. Earl Gheesling (gheelaw@wichita.infi.net), August 21, 1999.