Ed,

One of the things I strongly believe is that we're on the cusp of having a lot of software provided to us as services in the form of industry people are calling "Application Service Providers".

I argue (even within my own company) that ASPs ARE the future of software.

As more and more people who know less and less about computers start using them, ASPs will emerge as the leaders in software services.

Instead of having Peoplesoft or SAP installed in your company (or your "old" COBOL), you'll use these services through a "guaranteed service" Internet connection (with authentication and encryption) and leave Y2K concerns with these companies. These companies will have hundreds or thousands of customers running the same Peoplesoft or SAP (or perhaps software the ASP creates) and will have a tremendous incentive to avoid having Y2K-like software disasters.

So the risk of Y2K problems will reside with the supplier, unless bugs exist in the Web browser software, or the Operating System running the web browser.

I think Y2K will drive what WAS already becoming an ASP industry into one much more quickly, as companies that aren't Y2K dump their systems in 2001/2002 for ASPs who ARE Y2K.

So I no longer believe that Y2K "depression" becomes a long term threat unless the core electricity or telecom infrastructures of the country become threatened due to civil disobedience.

Application Service Providers will then "become certified", "certify" their people and so on, if there truly is any "value add" for certification in the mind of the customer.

Think of a doctor's office ASP, a beauty salon ASP, an auto repair shop ASP.

Companies already heavily invested in technology (grocery stores, banks, manufacturing ) will probably not become ASPs, but many "service" industries will.

My thoughts.

Glen Austin

-- Glen Austin (gdaustin@aol.com), August 18, 1999

Answers

From: Y2K, ` la Carte by Dancr (pic), near Monterey, California

To the extent that multiple companies, or even whole industries rely on the software from a single supplier, even such as Microsoft, we will be laying ourselves open to further Y2K-like disasters.

-- Dancr (addy.available@my.webpage), October 08, 1999.