Y2K Update(Updated on 7/28/99)By John WyckoffFirst it was a subtle shift. Now its become a sweeping movement. For the past six months or so, the focus on solving the Y2K problem has been on software and on the time frame needed to rewrite and debug the millions of programs. All manner of doom and gloom was predicted and now, just as the critical dates have passed and nothing has happened, the focus has begun to shift from the programs to the human side of the equation.Recently, the lead story in an issue of USA Today noted that the Gartner Group, a well-known Y2K consulting firm, has reported that there could possibly be a billion-dollar theft from financial institutions as the clocks transfer into the year 2000. Another recent story dealt with the programmers who are working to eliminate the bugs in banking programs. It has been reported that some have allegedly built trap doors  the computer equivalent of a secret code to allow the programmers to get back into the inner workings of the program to steal information, transfer funds and do all manner of skullduggery.It should also be noted that police departments across the country are preparing for the worst as parts of our fringe population might decide that they can create mischief and distract the police with millennium concerns while they go about their usual occupation of robbing banks, stealing cars or burglarizing homes. So why the shift? The programmers have been doing their jobs and the programs are being rewritten, debugged and installed with nary a glitch. It now appears that the problems  yes there will be some real problems  will be relatively minor. They could well become major, however, if the public overreacts. Just as there are people who stand in line at the post office at midnight on April 15th to mail their tax forms, there will be people who will stand in line at 11:50 p.m. on December 31, 1999 to make sure they get that last gallon of gasoline or that last can of soup off the shelf. These are the same people who have a tendency to panic in almost any situation, or to get in front of you on the freeway or give you the finger if you don't respond the way they want you to. In short, they are the 20 percent of our population who are not particularly rational  instead responding to stresses by becoming emotional and aggressive.Well know more about the mood of the country as we come closer to 2000. The next critical date is in August when, according to the stories in computer magazines and on Y2K Web sites, the Global Positioning Systems (GPS) are predicted to fail. So far, the doomsayers have been wrong three out of three times.(Updated on 6/29/99)By John WyckoffThis morning, I read an interesting news story about the problem facing one particular industry - the pending shortage of honey. Apparently, a small California beekeeper had to increase his staff from 12 employees to 115 within the last six months - and the reasons are all related to Y2K.

According to the article, right-wing zealots and survivalists are purchasing all the honey they can find. It appears they believe the food supply chain will break down as the year 2000 approaches, and honey not only has a long shelf life, but is energy producing and an excellent food source.

With that in mind, I began a search to find if there were other products that could become scarce as this year ends and the new one begins. The first list I received had well over 100 items listed but, upon reading it, I thought it a bit too extreme. Therefore, I have reduced it to a more reasonable and manageable one.

Here's the list of the top 42 - or 43 if you include honey.
1. Generators
2. Water filters/purifiers
3. Portable toilets
4. Seasoned firewood
5. Lamp oil, wicks, lamps
6. Coleman fuel
7. Guns, ammunition
8. Hand-use can openers
9. Hand-use egg beaters, whisks
10. Honey, sugars
11. Rice, beans, wheat
12. Vegetable oil
13. Charcoal & lighter fluid
14. Water containers
15. Mini heater head (propane)
16. Grain grinder (non-electric)
17. Propane cylinders
18. Baby supplies: Diapers/formula, etc.
19. Cookstoves, propane
20. Vitamins, medicines
21. Propane cylinder
22. Feminine hygiene/Haircare/Skin products
23. Thermal underwear
24. Bow saws, axes and hatchets
25. Aluminum foil
26. Gasoline containers (plastic or metal)
27. Garbage bags
28. Toilet paper, tissues, paper towels
29. Powdered milk
30. First aid kits
31. Batteries (all sizes)
32. Flour, yeast & salt
33. Wooden matches
34. Insulated ice chests
35. Flashlights
36. Men's hygiene products
37. Fishing supplies/tools
38. Duct tape
39. Candles
40. Laundry detergent
41. Canned foods
42. Knives & sharpening tools

-- For (your@info.com), August 17, 1999

Answers

"For" commented amidst the massive paragraph:

"The programmers have been doing their jobs and the programs are being rewritten, debugged and installed with nary a glitch. It now appears that the problems  yes there will be some real problems  will be relatively minor."

Gee "For", don't understand why you would WASTE TIME posting these items for us RIGHT WING ZEALOTS!!

You LEFT WINGERS must have extra time on your hands since things have cooled off ot the WH.

Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 17, 1999.

The diapers and formula items are reason enough to insist that everybody have a three month supply... and it's too late for that.

Thanks for the list.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), August 17, 1999.

If you run out of Kotex or Tampons, you can always wear a diaper.

-- thinkingahead (thinkingahead@thinkinggahead.com), August 17, 1999.

oh thinking ahead....one would imagine you are a guy....may you suffer from a bout of y2k incontinence for offering such a brilliant idea :-)

-- tt (cuddluppy@yahoo.com), August 17, 1999.

Tinfoil will be hard to get, because the pollies tell us that just about everyone, except them, are wearing the "hats". LOL

-- CygnusXI (noburnt@toast.net), August 17, 1999.

Ray, For didn't write the article. He/she seems to simply be passing it along. It is an interesing one as we can now stand assured that everything is all right. We lousy nuts are the problem. Let's cut it out.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWAyne@aol.com), August 17, 1999.

Folks

Get a grip! I don't know the the politics of the writer, nor do I much care. The GOOD BOOK says it rains on both saint and sinner alike. I think the list is helpfull in any case.

There is nothing wrong with the observation that most programmers have found the bugs and have fixed them. In fact, the Doomer approach ASSUMES this. Most, but not all will be fixed in time, but can't be tested completely because only when we are in the actual 2000 environment will there be sufficient end-to-end capacity will there be a real test. The best estimate I have seen based on the metrics so far is that as of now, with just 82 workdays to go, England is on track to have 70% of firms done, and we here in the States are somewhat worse at around 65%. The FDIC is notifying member banks to expect a borrower default rate and/or Bankruptcy filing rate of up to 15%!

Now, dial in just the implied unemployment rate if 15% of employers go under, and the subsequent shift in consumer psychology, and the Doomer scenario is obvious! Left wing or right wing politics has NOTHING to do with it.

-- K. Stevens (kstevens@It's ALL going away in January.com), August 17, 1999.

Xgnus;

Tin foil is already in short supply, all the stuff at my store is now made from aluminum....

The TIN FOIL IS GONE... ALL STASHED AWAY....READ IT AND WEEP.

-- Its (All@Conspiracy.com), August 17, 1999.

K Stevens commented:

"Left wing or right wing politics has NOTHING to do with it."

Well K. Stevens, I must humbly disagree with you here. IMHO "For" was well aware of what the article said. If you don't think the RIGHT WING ZEALOTS will be targeted for as much blame as can be meted out by this Administration your sadley mistaken. Yes "For" knew EXACTLY what he/she was posting.

Whats say "For"???

Ray

-- Ray (ray@tottacc.com), August 17, 1999.

Ray

I never said that the right wing wouldn't be singled out as a scapegoat...only that I'm grateful for the list, as I'm using it as a check on my preps.

Please, I am not so naive as to thing the blame game will not be played. When Dickey Morris released the paperback edition to his Behind The Oval Office he included his "briefing notes" which detailed explicitly how to tar the Republicans with blame. Any regime which will resort to that kind of "Blood Libel" will resort to ANYTHING!

By the way, let my just add one item to my previous post. Most of the Y2K effects on Consumer psychology is expected to materialize in the March- June period because under the game of Accrual Accounting, you can juggle the books for about one Quarter before failures must be disclosed in public filings.

-- K. Stevens (kstevens@It's ALL going away in January.com), August 17, 1999.

OPPS!!!

I forgot to mention what the Republicans were to be blamed for

OKLAHOMA CITY!

-- K. Stevens (kstevens@It's ALL going away in January.com), August 17, 1999.