A Ray of Hope

Yes, I am ready for the possibilities of Y2k, however, as an older American (mid '60s) there are other possibilities other than "mild" to "disaster" involving Y2k.

Most of you reading this are not old enough to recall a world without computers. I was a child during World War II. We suffered shortages, "make do" and became quite innovative in getting along with life. My father rode the bus to work, although we owned a car, as a patriotic duty.

I can envision a mobilization like WW II which could even INCREASE employment rather than suffer a depression, as more and more people are called upon to do by hand what a computer now does. Oldsters like myself will be called into service, i.e., those who know how to function without a computer. The computer jockeys who now run our major corporations will be the ones unemployed. Even when I began law practice we used a typewriter and carbon paper to make multiple copies of legal documents. That time could return.

Some will say I don't appreciate the problem, that there are embedded chips, etc. Well, that equipment will simply be scrapped, and we will start from scratch. Yes, there will be hardship, but whether we make it will depend on political leadership which we do not now have ANYWHERE, and yes, the politicians will be changed.

Maybe the manipulators on Wall Street and in the media will take a real fall which would be good for all of us, and we might return to a society which values work and not the sound bite.

-- W. Earl Gheesling (gheelaw@wichita.infi.net), August 14, 1999

Answers

Re returning to manual typewriters and carbon paper ...

a few years ago, my younger son came home from school and reported, "The teacher asked us a really weird question today!"

"What was it?" I asked.

"The teacher wanted to know if any of us knew what carbon paper was?" he said.

"Yeah? And did anyone?"

"Well, none of the kids did ... except for my friend Sam, who raised his hand and said, 'Carbon paper is that stuff grownups tear up into little pieces after they sign their American Express bill in a restaurant.'"

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (HumptyDumptyY2K@yourdon.com), August 15, 1999.

I agree with most of the points mentioned in this post, including the fact that it might be good for all us to return to" a society which values work." I'm afraid, however, that the transition back to "manual" will be extremely painful. I'm also a retired worker. I have revved up my manual typewriter, bought new typewriter ribbons and carbon paper. My husband and I have done the same in other areas as well. What concerns me are millions of workers, who might scoff today at a carbon-paper system, trying to adjust quickly and smoothly into the older ways of doing. I can imagine the chaos. Many additional workers will be needed; where the companies suddenly find the desks, the paper forms, the manual typewriters and calculating machines, not to mention the space to put them in?

During WWII, I worked on one floor of a large central office of a railroad. In this section (part of accounting) were approximately 50 employees. Each had a large desk capable of holding many paper forms. On top of the desk was a calculating machine or in a few cases a typewriter. Fifty desk chairs accompanied the array. Today, through the use of computers, fewer desks and fewer chairs are on hand. A comparable section of accounting now occupies less than half the physical floor space. And of course,there are fewer employees.

People who say that we will simply return to "manual" are not thinking of the logistics of the change. Multiply my example by countless other companies. Where will all the manual machines come from? Where will all the skilled operators come from? Where will the additional floor space come from? All this doesn't happen overnight.

My younger neighbor who works in a bank said that the bank has asked for all who have manual typewriters at home to bring them in. Apparently, they are beginning to work on some contingency plans that don't include electricity. Big problem, though: manual typewritrrs take a considerable amount of finger strength. It's an entirely different kind of touch. How long will it take keyboard operators to learn how to make a presentable product? There will be no way of correcting errors outside of wite-out or erasers. There will be no "delete" buttons.

When I worked for a farm and refrigeration machinery company, we had many government contracts. Carbon paper and thin onion skin paper would not make enough copies for the government. We had to make multiple copies on either a "ditto" machine or a mimeograph. Is it possible to obtainthese machines today? Remember there will be no copy machines, no faxes.

I'm over 75. Even though I would like to help, I can't go back to work eight hours a day in a fast-paced environment. I might be pressed into consulting on manual practices for a few hours a day. That is, I might if I could get to work in the first place. Will we have gas for our cars?

I think the reversal to manual will be overwhelming. My examples given above are just the tip of the iceberg. Comparable problems will come to light in every business and factory.

-- LurkerII (lurker@stillalert.com), August 17, 1999.

Mr. Gheesling, and Lurker II,

You two exhibit a spirit of resourcefulness and innovation that really makes me proud. I'm not quite as old as either of you, just having turned fifty, but I beg to differ with you on this issue of returning to manual operations.

You must surely realize how much and in how many ways we are a different society now, than we were in the 40's. You talk of business on manual typewriters, for example, but can you really see anyone climbing 30 flights of stairs, to work in an office where the windows don't open, with no electric lights, no A/C or heat?

Can you imagine people walking to work from the suburbs, because there is no gasoline for their cars? Remember, we have effectively destroyed even the concept of public transit in most cities, now. I agree with you, that we will find ways, incredible ways, to do things should we have to. But, I believe the (possible) malfunctioning of interdependancies in our life support systems as well as our business support systems, may be insurmountable challenges for many people and many organizations.

I truly wish I had more neighbors like you.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), August 17, 1999.

Hello, Lon. Thanks for the kind words, but if you re-read my post, you will find that I do NOT think that it will be easy to go back to manual. You mention climbing 30 flights of stairs,no heat, no A/C, etc. I couldn't mention all the factors that would enter in. I concentrated only on the nitty-gritty within an individual office. Please re-read my post.

-- Lurker II (Lurker@stillalert.com), August 17, 1999.

OOPS, sorry, LurkerII. That's the very first mistake I've ever made, I swear it! :

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), August 17, 1999.

Hello, Lon: We're not arguing. We agree! And you're right - we need to look forward to LIVING in the new millennium. Cooperation, not a bunker mentality, will be the key.

-- Lurker II (Lurker@stillalert.com), August 18, 1999.