The NERC Report and Me

I agree entirely with what Rick Cowles wrote about the most recent submission from the North American Reliability Council. There only real difference between our positions is that I haven't read the NERC report and I made up my mind about it a year before they wrote it.

I don't believe in the Tooth Fairy. It will take a lot more than the predictable report of an industry agency to change my mind about miracles. Particularly when the report is based on a survey where the methodology is pretty shoddy. Particularly when report definitions have drifted over the survey period. It takes more than that to make me believe in the Tooth Fairy. A lot more.

When I first got seriously interested in Y2k, the countdown clock read 719 days. Over the following few months I read an enormous amount about the problem without writing anything about the subject. I made my mind up on Y2k more than 500 days before rollover.

"In the final analysis, we are only marginally closer to being able to draw Y2k impact conclusions from all of the industry and government reports..."

I decided a year ago that it would be a lot harder to draw Y2k impact conclusions today than it would be then. I think I turned out to be right. As a quasi-public figure Rick could not close his mind a year ago, but I could and I did. (If Rick had closed his mind, he would be where Joe Boivan is today - basically without any influence at all.) A lot of people have asked me whether I am more optimistic today than I was when I wrote Tom's Take. The answer is no, but that is mostly because I closed my mind a year ago.

A year ago, Y2k was a real problem. If it was hype, it was hyped by my government in numerous reports and papers published in the first half of 1998. Nobody was equating Y2k concern with millennium madness back then. When I first started following Y2k, causing a panic was not a large concern. Everyone acknowledged the problem was real and everyone acknowledged that the scope of the problem made repair a real challenge. Everyone acknowledged the potential economic impact and the vulnerability of global supply chains. The only question a year ago was "Will the problem be fixed in time?"

Ed Yardeni was calling for the appointment of Colin Powell to the position of Global Y2k Czar with enough power to break kneecaps. Allen Simpson was saying "Failure was not an option." Howard Belasco was saying that the nation retrieved the Apollo 13 astronauts and the same kind of effort focused on Y2k could still win the day. DeJager predicted a Manhattan Project scale effort would be launched.

I do not believe in Tooth Fairies or miracles. I believe in bell curves. I believe in probabilities. The future is predictable in some ways. I may not know what number I will roll with a pair a dice if I toss them once, but I can predict with absolutely uncanny accuracy which number will come up the most frequently if I roll them a million times.

How likely is it that every single child at your local high school will make the honour roll next year? How likely was it that every organization delivering critical services would complete a difficult project within a fixed time frame? Particularly an IT project? How likely was it that we could lick Y2k when we can't fill potholes in a timely manner? The bell curve that seems to govern human achievement was not going to be good enough this time. Students who normally get a "D" would have to ace this exam. We had to get the centre of gravity across the finish line.

A year ago, we needed a miracle. The scope of the task was impossible. We were taking apart an electronic network that took 40 years to build, doing a simple repair over and over again and then gluing it back together. Everybody started late, and late IT projects finish late. I decided a year ago that the chance of avoiding many, many, many computer breakdowns approached zero. There are too many opportunities for human beings to screw up, and human beings screw up every day.

I do not believe in the Tooth Fairy. The problem was not going to be fixed in time. A global catastrophe loomed a year ago. Why did I close my mind? It certainly was not because I believed that NERC would produce a pack of lies. It certainly was not because I believed a conspiracy would emerge to keep Joe Public in the dark. I still don't believe that happened.

Rick Cowles does not believe the NERC report is a lie or that the companies reporting are lying. I did not close my mind because I thought we would see lies. I closed my mind because I expected the Happyface and because I expected many, many companies to finish. It is a very large bell curve, so many Y2k projects that there are millions of honour roll companies. The happyface and the honour roll... I thought there was a very good chance denial would hold right up to rollover. I still do. I knew I was going to be tempted to feel more optimistic.

In fact I have been very tempted. One thing Y2k pessimists have learned is that it is very difficult to be massively out of step with the larger society. It was harder than I thought, and my mind was closed. I kept reminding myself I understood how organizations and people behave when failure is imminent, but not an option.

When "Failure is not an option" comes down the pipe from the top, "Three bags full" goes back every time whether there is anything in the bag or not. Usually this does not matter because failure is usually an option and the boss is usually blowing smoke. This time it really does matter, but the response is the same. You could no more stop the "Three bags full" than you can stop your leg from twitching when the doctor raps your knee with his mallet.

What do organizations do when failure is imminent, but not an option? Do they lie? No. They redefine success until the bags are full. In the final analysis, mission critical will be defined by the number of systems that can be fixed and fantasy contingency plans will be drawn up to cover the rest. Everyone is going to be 100% ready because failure is not an option.

I don't believe in miracles, the Tooth Fairy or conspiracy theories. I do believe in human weakness, bell curves, and probabilities. I hope I'm wrong about all of this and maybe I am. If so I'm going to be wrong right up until events prove me wrong.

Will the grid stay up? Maybe. Perhaps. Probably. I guess. Why not? Does that mean we are going to skate by this Y2k thing with a scratch here or there, maybe a mild recession? Unless there is a tooth fairy we're going to be pasted.

My mind is closed.

Tom

-- Anonymous, August 12, 1999

Answers

Tom,

Your mind is closed, but what about your lips ?

-- Anonymous, August 13, 1999

menno,

a rather 'simplistic' analogy.

about three years ago i put out $30,000 in order to update my kitchen. i did the design work and hired the subs necessary to do the job. as i was the 'general contractor' i had to determine, after consulting with all the subs and suppliers, how to coordinate and schedule the work. this was based upon the estimated length of time each sub approximated they would require in order to complete their particular part of the project.

based on my experience in other areas of endeavor i factored in a fudge factor of three weeks. the deadline was 'carved in granite' as i was expecting guests from france.

to cut to the chase... waylaid are the best laid plans of mice and men.

the corian that arrived was the wrong style, when the correct one finally arrived the lack of coordination between the marketing department and the installation department resulted in the installer cutting the corian for a regular sink with a lip in lieu of the bottom mounted model i had chosen[this a 15' piece of corian already installed], now we had to await the arrival of a new piece.

and this was just the beginning of murphy's law in action.

we ran into some other problems while rewiring which caused the floor installation to be rescheduled, this, of course, threw off the schedule for the painters.

i *knew* 12 days into the project that we would *not* meet the deadline... this despite the protestations of the subs to the contrary.

now... i desperately wanted to believe that they would finish on time, but i *knew* that they wouldn't. i guess you could say that i closed my mind and started searching for ways to mitigate the impact on my guests. did this stop me from talking about the situation? did it stop me from constantly reevaluating the situation against the progress made each day? did it stop me from forming alternative plans?

no to all three questions.

when something impacts your life to any degree of magnitude, even when you know that the end result is not going to be in your best interests, you do not stop analyzing, evaluating, and rethinking your contingency planning *just* because the answer is not to your liking.

what should tom do? assume the fetal position? never discuss his take in a public arena? crawl in a closet and lock the door?

voicing one's opinion is both cathartic to the one 'voicing' and informative to those who are still in the throes of confusion.

just knowing there are 'others' out there who feel the same way and can put forth their conclusions in a logical, linear, and coherent fashion is somehow comforting to the rest of us.

leave tom alone... we need his thoughts.

-- Anonymous, August 13, 1999

Thanks very much, Tom.

-- Anonymous, August 13, 1999

Amen.

-- Anonymous, August 13, 1999

Marianne,

Excellent analogy and commentary. Since you are the kind of person you are, I'm sure you dealt with the "truth" successfully. It seems that many members of the public prefer to listen to "subcontractors" reassurances.

Tom,

You know the progression: Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance. Contrasting the posting of yours from last year, which seemed to have a very angry base to it, and then looking at the above well thought out and presented opinion, it now appears you are at the final destination, acceptance. Me too. Anyway, thanks for the overview.

-- Anonymous, August 13, 1999

Tom: "One thing Y2k pessimists have learned is that it is very difficult to be massively out of step with the larger society."

Boy, did you hit the nail on the head.

I researched for 6 or 8 months before I said a peep to anyone. [and made up my mind it was a problem that long BEFORE I discovered GN by the way.] Then I figured having done the research, having figured out it was not a hoax or hype, and that the potential consequences were serious, I should warn family, friends and coworkers. That effort has been AMAZINGLY unsuccessful. I have never had so much knowledge about a subject and failed so miserably in an effort before. It is humbling. Not that I take it personally (at least I don't THINK I should -g-)... as I have heard of similar failures from many others on various forums. But seeing the masses cling SO tenaciously to "the tooth fairy" way past time to put away such childish things is ... I don't know what.

-- Anonymous, August 13, 1999

Thanks, Tom. I don't think I closed my mind - but I certainly have been skeptical of the Happy Faces. I have hosted two local Y2K forums - with all the businesses, government officials and representatives of local utilities. The first one, in October, was eye opening to many folks - when I invited them, a large percentage didn't even know about Y2k, When I made contact with our local natural gas distributor, I was inadvertatnly given the number of the tech person in charge of Y2K. She was wonderful and forthcoming. She agreed that the more her department dove into the problem, the larger it became. She realized that they had a huge problem and that the public needed to be aware of the potential danger. She, of course, was not allowed to come to my forum. Instead, they sent a PR fellow who said things like, "I'm 100 percent sure we're working as hard as we can." Not impressive. The local government said, "Yep, sure, this is a problem and we'll start looking into it real soon." Well, nearly a year later - nothing. The bright side is that the local Red Cross started looking into this after the forum and has developed some plans with the NAtional Gaurd - but we're still talking about this like a week-end storm.

I was writing a weekly column about Y2K and becoming prepared. I stopped two months ago - because I found that Y2K had become a war - those who believed and were doing something about it and those who thought we were nuts.

I still talk to folks, one on one, and try to explain that they should store food and water - just in case. But I know that I am walking out of step with most of the population.

I wonder if Paul Revere had this much trouble?;^0

Terri Reid

-- Anonymous, August 13, 1999

Great post Tom!

I too have read much of Y2K. Not only that, but I've been intimately involved with Y2K remediation for an electric company (more on that in another post).

As an addition to Tom's post, I'd like to add an analogy someone made in a distant post on a distant site:

When he was a little boy he lived in Hawaii. One day he and his father found themselves looking at Japanese Zeros flying around and generally making a mess of things. His father did not try to find a safe place for cover as he believed it was an orchestrated practice drill. Even though bullets were flying and bombs were falling and stuff was blowing up down at the harbor, his mind would not let him believe that what he was seeing was the start of war in the Pacific Theater.

Denial has a purpose - it can protect our minds from overload. But we must realize that denial, if it runs too long, can leave us exposed to nasty surprises.

-- Anonymous, August 13, 1999

Like you folks I have been there and done that in warnings, further, I have added my financial expertise to Rick's discussion last week. Now my question is does anyone have a background to postulate the psychological or emotional reponse when it is found that they have been *spinned*. Is the response violent in search of supplies or to vent rage, or maybe clinical depression and abandonment of life? If some react one way and some another, is there any good information on the groupings? Since I live in a county of 24,000 in the West (with a water utility SKADA on back order) , I feel much less angst personally than those in cities. Maybe Ed Yourdon's new book-in- writing will shed some light on these expectations.

Red

-- Anonymous, August 13, 1999

Gordon wrote:

You know the progression: Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance. Contrasting the posting of yours from last year, which seemed to have a very angry base to it, and then looking at the above well thought out and presented opinion, it now appears you are at the final destination, acceptance.

I've never really bought the progression although I have experienced each of these emotions at different times. I think I have done fairly well at controlling my rage but it is still there. It is just counter- productive at this stage. Acceptance? Yes in the sense I am psychologically prepared for the worst. It will still shock me if the worst happens, or even if merely very bad happens. But I am prepared mentally to pick myself up off whatever mat I am

Menno chipped in with

Your mind is closed, but what about your lips?

I am very pessimistic and to my way of thinking, I make a pretty convincing argument. The least I can do is warn my readers that my mind is closed. When people call me crazy because I think there is a damn good chance we face a complete economic collapse, I usually agree with them. It is a crazy, unimaginable idea. My mind is made up and my conclusions are crazy and unimaginable. If that bothers you enough to discount my entire argument, feel free.

I figure that it should be the quality of the argument that really matters but to each his own.

Close my lips? How did you know? I can be standing with a group of people at a party and discussing anything. Suddenly a Y2k klaxon will go off. "Aah-ooga! Aah-ooga!" and everybody is diving for cover and looking around for the horn. I can even chug a beer and sound the alarm. "Aah-ooga!!"

Watch for me on Letterman's "Stupid Human tricks". I'm right between the guy who balances a canoe on his nose, and the guy who squirts milk out of his eye. My lips are closed but the "Aah-ooga!!" comes out as clear as day. Dave was amazed.

Tom

-- Anonymous, August 13, 1999

Most (95%) companies don't manage projects very well. This time, the scheduled Y2K project completion date CANNOT be slipped. Expect alot to miss it.

-- Anonymous, August 13, 1999

The feds, NERC, NEI, EEI, almost every industry utility group is saying electric power will be capablem of functioning on the rollover to y2k with no significant impact on the ability to produce and distribute power. I would put you guys somewhere between the "denial" and "anger" phases...

Regards,

-- Anonymous, August 14, 1999

To all,

What a wonderful collection of wisdom is on this thread,

Beginning with Tom Benjamin's very lucid post

Followed by Marianne's excellent analogy. By the way Marianne, you didn't tell us the outcome.

Then Linda's revelation on the human psyche: never before have so many denied so much based on so little.

And even FactFinder, with his convenient memory, which fails to remember all those caviate "if's" put before the 'ready' statements, such as 'if we have water', 'if we have fuel', 'if we have communications'

What a wonderful layout and display of the problem.

And then, the most important post of all on the thread, Red's most important challenge:

'to postulate the psychological or emotional reponse when it is found that they have been *spinned*.

I know Linda was amazed by her failure to convince others and I have been likewise dumbfounded. So I personally, won't even consider postulating an accurate answer to that question.

I will just think of the worst outcome which could happen, and try to prepare for that, as I know my judgement has been faulty on thinking that people would be able to connect the dots, and be convinced by 'facts'. It seems that FactFinder's selective memory of the 'facts' of the problem is going to 'win' the battle of pre-y2k pyschology.

Will 'Mad Max' win the post-y2k battle? I don't know, but I do know that if his world results, that mentality has a much better chance of survival than that of FactFinder.

The trick is to find the fine balance, between the two, because either one is a misfit in the other's world.

Maybe you should just call me 'semi-mad' xBob

-- Anonymous, August 14, 1999

FactFinder,

Please excuse me, I forgot to mention 2 things,

1. Please re-read Mariannes post

2. Please keep up the hope. We need you too. Too much doom and gloom makes xBob a dull boy.

-- Anonymous, August 14, 1999

The feds, NERC, NEI, EEI, almost every industry utility group is saying electric power will be capablem of functioning on the rollover to y2k with no significant impact on the ability to produce and distribute power. I would put you guys somewhere between the "denial" and "anger" phases...

Gee... back to posting press releases, are we?

-- Anonymous, August 14, 1999