I won't try and drum up interest in this again. Here is as clear as I can state it. At about the same time as the latest NERC report the natural gas utilities were reporting a 0 (zero, zilch, nada, null), percent readiness rate. Their percentage remediation had moved backward from the last governement assesment.

http://www.ingaa.org/NEW/YEAR2000/Results.pdf

http://www.ingaa.org/INFO/1999Press/080499a.pdf

-- Anonymous, August 11, 1999

Answers

Paul,

You're right. Those numbers are going the wrong way. From the overall looks of the reports you linked us to I'd say they are not very serious about the reporting anyway.

Instead of saying; "Year 2000 Planned Completion Dates Cumulative" that last word should be Speculative. That's what it mostly is.

Did you notice how contingency plans in place moved up by 2%? Of course contingency plans tested went down 28% in the same time period.

Shouldn't these reports come with a warning like:

CAUTION: This report may cause anxiety, depression, brain fog, skepticism, a sense of unreality and feelings of being small and powerless.

Like I said a while back; I wish there were a natural gas utilities y2k forum, and a banking industries y2k forum, and a chemical processing plant y2k forum, and a gas and oil y2k forum. An I wish someone as good as Rick and Bonnie were on each of them

-- Anonymous, August 11, 1999

How much natural gas do utilities burn?

I know that 53% of homes are heated with natural gas (of course electric is needed to start the furnace).

Given the situation in the gas industry, I decided to purchase some electric heaters last year as a hedge because I think electric may function normally sooner than gas.

And then there is firewood...

-- Anonymous, August 12, 1999

Paul,

I don't even see any really useful informtion on their web site. Looking at the sdata from their survey, which follows, (hope it formats ok) they don't include 'operations' in their survey, which is the most important part. So essentially, this is worthless to me.

xBob

Well here goes nothing for the data: Planning Inventory Assessment Remediation Validation Ready

Business Systems 0% 0% 8% 48% 57% 12%

Embedded Systems 0% 0% 1% 45% 57% 12%

Supply Chain 0% 3% 39% 8% 74% 0%

-- Anonymous, August 12, 1999

Let's try it again

Planning Inventory Assessment Remediation Validation Ready

Business Systems 0% 0% 8% 48% 57% 12%

Embedded Systems 0% 0% 1% 45% 57% 12%

Supply Chain 0% 3% 39% 8% 74% 0%

-- Anonymous, August 12, 1999

In fact, it rather appears that they must be using some of that 'new' math they hav e been teaching the kids, where they can't add. Nothing seems to even add up to 100%., let alone having the proper categories.

xBob

-- Anonymous, August 12, 1999

My greatest frustration with the official lines (allay,allay) from the government and corporations is that because people want to believe what the Prez says, they refuse to look further. Our leaders' (plural) have lied to us in so many ways about Y2K and for so long, that with statistics like these, no one would care anyway. I feel that I could lay these stats in front of them, and they would yawn. We have been taught not to discern for ourselves. My neighbors are convinced that we're nuts, but they'll remember what we've said if the gas doesn't work. They looked awry at me when we put in an LP tank, and a few have seen the grain piled in the garage, and all of a sudden two college-educated people living quietly in their neighborhood are wackos. To paraphrase the old saying, "If you yell 'fire' in a crowded forest and nobody leaves, is there going to be anyone left to rake the ashes?" Paul, thank you very much for posting this. When I can 14 turkeys, 40 chickens, and whatever venison the two men in this house can get this year, I will think of you. A few people are listening to whatever you and the other doomers, er...statistics-readers, are saying. Maybe all that meat will help to feed the neighbors when their stoves and furnaces don't work in Michigan next year. Factfinder, the system is broken and it can't be fixed; you're not helping yourself or others by denying the facts. If you can make it to my house next year, FF, I'll feed you. And it won't be crow.

-- Anonymous, August 12, 1999

Paul, my favorite part of this report is when the guy gave the terrible statistics, then announced the industry's optimism that everything would be done in time. Reminds me of the old saw, "There are three kinds of people--those who can count and those who can't."

-- Anonymous, August 12, 1999

Steve, your're right, I think Brain Fog about sums it up

Mike, 11% of electricity is generated directly from natural gas. I try to outline my thinking on this report in Slip Slidin away, posted earlier. Funny how there's zero percent compliance in natural gas and 98-99% electrical generating compliance per NERC, hate to say it but does not compute.

xBob, I may switch to a pseudonym here soon, despite the password as ugly as things look. "This is worthless to me" is 200% correct. What in the heck are they releasing. First, NERC uses 2 digit date fields in its raw data for the most recent NERC report then this rosetta stone like report on natural gas. What's up? It start's to look like a conspiracy of idiocy. I could laugh if 1) a young man and two children didn't recently lose their lives for a screw-up in this industry 2) the degree of date dependency on critical fucntions is hardly predicatable.

Ann, I don't think your nuts at all. All of Tiawan loses power when China is threatening invasion and this is not even reported on the evening news. Such bizarre silence worries me as much as the odd data coming out. Turkey, Yum. As the euyek marine Tom says Ah-ooga, trouble ahead, Ah-ooga. Let's hope were wrong.

-- Anonymous, August 14, 1999