Y2K Impact on the Financial Markets - NYC Security Analysts Newsletter

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Here's some investment strategies & projections from a good friend of mine, Dennis Grabow. In April he addressed the New York Society of Security Analysts at their conference: "The Year 2000 Computer Problem: Impact on the Financial Markets" .

In their newsletter, the NYC Society of Security Analysts wrote about his comments along with those of Ambassador Kamal, from the United Nations.

Here's a copy of the article: http://www.millenniuminvest.com/research9.htm

-- Cheryl (Transplant@Oregon.com), August 11, 1999


Heres the summary, a little understated, until you think about what its ramifications are:

****** Y2K Economic Forecast

According to Grabow:

A market correction will probably come this year and will last for some time. We will have a recession starting at the end of 1999. Unemployment will start to rise at the end of 4Q99. There will be a credit crunch, and some countries will be denied credit. Real estate will take a significant hit because it is tied to the stock market. National and international air travel will be restricted, which will slow commerce. People will learn that there is risk in equity. Grabow believes that non-compliance failures will start in 2000 and last for a few years. He feels that earnings are overstated, multiples are at an extreme, and that we will see a market correction based on multiple compression, because earnings are not going to be where analysts predict. And even if a company puts forth Herculean effort and becomes Y2K compliant, its ultimate success may be dependent on other sources (for electricity, water, etc.). If one or more of its suppliers fails, even a compliant company may find itself unable to function. The concern is that many people still don't take Y2K issues seriously. And we're setting the stage for a bubble.

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), August 11, 1999.

Thanks Cheryl..

Here's the LINK

-- PJC (paulchri@msn.com), August 11, 1999.

Moderation questions? read the FAQ