Hoff, Rick Cowles (an electric utility expert, BTW) just blew your theory on NERC's claimed "almost 100% done" to smithereens. If you're not too embarrassed, you may want to go over there and stick your finger in the dike:

Rick Cowles take on the latest NERC report

-- a (a@a.a), August 09, 1999

Answers

Any comment Hoff?

-- a (a@a.a), August 10, 1999.

FWIW - Here's CPR's take on Cowles' impressions.

From http://www.insidetheweb.com/messageboard/mbs.cgi?acct=mb237006&MyNum=9 34289735&P=Yes&TL=934191375

COWLES, THE LAST OF HIS "SHELL GAMES FROM THE PEANUT GALLERY OF Y2K" has posted his "critique" of the NERC report.

I doubt any responsible member of the Power Industry will give him a bit of attention at this point. He offers a series of "diatribes" in this paper that exceed most of his past efforts.

Who is going to respond to Cowle's new IRRESPONSIBLE SMEARS AND DISTRORTIONS OF POWER UTILITIES??

I can only respond to a few of the charges off the top of my head. MY TIME is now too valuable to be bothered doing a "formal analysis" of his SALES PITCH FOR RICK COWLES.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

http://www.euy2k.com/deadline.pdf

".......  Y2k remediation activities are not complete in the electric utility industry.

WHAT ELSE IS NEW. The schedule of completion is known. Some have finished already and it is August. One large company, TXU (34+% power in TEXAS) has claimed "we will never say we are complete and finished because we keep checking". (Eric Schmidt, TXU).

 The smaller electric companies, represented by American Public Power Association (APPA) and National Rural Electric Cooperatives Association (NRECA), continue to lag the "bulk power distributors" in Y2k preparation.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx...COMMENT.... COWLES is "reaching" here. WHO and "prepare" exactly for what??? The small "Muni" billing co-ops that don't do a thing until they put a meter on the end of the distribution lines?? Or the small Co-ops or Munis that have addressed the problem but don't report to NERC like CITY OF LUBBOCK,TEXAS which just turned on a new plant designed to by Y2k compliant with dual Nat. Gas Feedlines for supply?? (See Lubbock's well known Y2k efforts in the Senate and House reports.) Try these numbers COWLES leave OUT: SEVEN UTILITIES in TEXAS make 85% of the POWER. Another TEN make Ten % more. 95% of the power in TEXAS can be accounted for and will be Y2k ready in just 17 "entities". OUT OF 175. (TXPUC data).

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 The nuclear power industry response to Y2k, as a whole, has been less than adequate. The response of the U.S. Government regulatory agency tasked with nuclear power safety oversight (the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission) has been nothing short of abysmal over the past 12 months. XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COWLES' OPINION. NOTHING MORE. No sources or data cited.

FACT: NUKE POWER IS THE MOST REGULATED OF ALL INDUSTRIES AND COWLES KNOWS BETTER. NO PLANT can stay in operation unless there is a Y2k plan in place. The NRC ...NOT COWLES...and industry spokes people have stated time and again that most plants don't have "Y2k problems" because they have "analog controls" (can't be y2k impacted) or checks made indicate problems of a manageable nature. Cowles even KNOWS which plants are being taken off line for Y2k FIXES during regularly scheduled maintanence.

Cowles is "fear mongering" without fact here.

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 The Y2k status of Independent Power Producers (IPP's) is being largely ignored, despite the considerable contribution that IPP's make to the overall stability of the domestic U.S. electric system. Over the past 18 months, I've had the pleasure (or frustration, in some cases) of working with quite a few electric companies, industry organizations, federal regulatory agencies,and state regulatory agencies. In many cases, the effort put forth has been outstanding. In more than a few cases, however, the efforts have been little more than a public relations shell game. ....."

SOUNDS TERRIFYING,,,,UNTIL..YOU FIND OUT THAT THE NUCLEAR POWER INDUSTRY IS THE MOST HEAVILY REGULATED OF ALL UTILITIES. AND...MOST RUN WITH "ANALOG CONTROLS" (AS COWLES SHOULD KNOW BUT DOESN'T MENTION).

FEW BELIEVE THERE IS A Y2K PROBLEM WITH THE NUKE POWER GENERATION SIDE OF POWER GENERATION OR DISTRIBUTION.

EXCEPT........RICK COWLES?????

SO,,,,,,,WHO IS PLAYING THE "SHELL GAME"????

SNIP >>>>>>>>>>

"......Here's my bottom line: while many electric companies took Y2k seriously, and I believe that they believe they've put the requisite effort into dealing with the issue, too many electric companies have not taken the issue seriously. There are companies that have simply gone through the motions, assigned "less than the best" personnel to deal with the issue, and have signed off on completion simply to get the industry associations (and pundits such as myself) off their back. My sense is that a significant minority of the companies showing up on the NERC reporting list as "ready" or "ready with exceptions" is being a little fast and loose with their Y2k readiness statements. This feeling is based on the following factors:  My direct involvement on the Y2k issue with many electric companies, industry trade organizations, and state level Public Utility Commissions  Raw statistical analysis of NERC and other industry reporting  Historic management reporting practices Since the day that the latest NERC report was issued, I've been asked many times if I believe the proclamations that the North American electric industry is ready to make the century transition. My short answer is that, no, I do not. ........."

SNIP:

NOTICE ......Cowles claims or "seems" to claim that he has some evidence or justification for his charges ...........BUT GIVES NONE...ONLY "my short answer is"..."no I do not"....believe "the North American electric industry is ready to make the century transition....."

WELL,,,BLESS MY SOUL. HERE IS MR. WEASEL. TODAY, ANYONE CAN SAY THAT....BUT THEY DON'T.

NERC SAYS......IF 1/1/2000 WERE TODAY.......THEY WOULD BE READY.

SO THE CHOICE COMES DOWN TO: RICK COWLES, (WHOSE BACKGROUND IS QUESTIONABLE AND WON'T EVEN ANSWER A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT HE HAS A COLLEGE DIPLOMA OR ANY WORK EXPERIENCE IN POWER GENERATION ENGINEERING...) OR.............THE INDUSTRY HE QUESTIONS WITH MAYBE 1,000,000 EMPLOYEES WHO HAVE SPENT THEIR LIVES SUPPLYING POWER.

COWLES OR THE INDUSTRY??

LOOK AT HOW ..........COWLES DISTORTS "NUMBERS":

TYPICAL MISUSE OF NUMBERS AND THE "GARY NORTH NUMBERS". HERE COWLES USES THE "7,941" power companies. HE TRIES TO SHOW THAT ONLY 3% ARE REPORTED IN THE NERC VS. EEI (ED. ELECT INST.)

"....The August NERC report is as prominent for its omission of information as much as for the conclusions it draws. I'm only going to latch onto one statistic: industry participation. While NERC and the electric industry contend that the information gathered represents a vast majority of the generation and transmission assets in North America, it is hard to reconcile the numbers and believe that a mere 3% (251 of 7941) of the EEI listed companies represent the only "critical" segment of the electric power industry (see Table"

SNIP:

Now, based on survey responses from the participants in column 2 of the above table, the electric industry as a whole, represented by NERC, has drawn the conclusion that Y2k will be a non-event for most of us (at least power-wise). But let's take a little closer view of some different numbers for one region of the country - my home state, New Jersey.

According to USDOE, Energy Information Agency statistics 3 , nuclear power provides somewhere around 30 percent of generation capacity required in the state. IPP's (non-regulated power generators) provide another 50 percent 4 . None of the nuclear plants in NJ are yet Y2k ready 5 . No one knows about the IPP's (including NERC, who I have queried on the subject repeatedly). Is New Jersey unique? Yes. But so is every other region in North America; that's my point. And that's why I think it's absolutely ludicrous to make global pronouncements about overall electric industry Y2k readiness. We simply don't know.

........... SNIP. XXXXXXXXX

WRONG. TO THE UN-INFORMED, THIS LOOKS VERY SCARY. HOWEVER...COWLES LIKE NORTH AND YOURDON LEAVE OUT ONE FACTOR.

!!!! WHO GENERATES THE POWER?? !!1 HOW MANY OF THE "UTILITY COMPANIES" COWLES CITE ACTUALLY HAVE THE SLIGHTEST THING TO DO WITH ......GENERATION AND DISRIBUTION (EVEN BILLING) OF THE POWER TO THE USERS??

THE OMISSION OF THAT BREAKDOWN IS VERY "CONVENIENT" FOR COWLES, NORTH AND YOURDON. IT ENABLES THEM TO CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR HYSTERICAL DIATRIBES WHILE OVERLOOKING THE FACT THAT :

30 UTILITY COMPANIES GENERATE OVER 50% OF THE POWER.

LET.......COWLES OR ANY OF THESE PEOPLE ANSWER THIS: HOW BIG A PERCENTAGE OF THE POWER GENERATION ........AND/OR DISTIRUBTION IS DONE BY THE COMPANIES IN THE ***NERC STUDY** COWLES CLAIMS TO BE "ANALYZING".

HINT. IN THE CASE OF THE NUKE PLANT GENERATION, IS THERE ONE PERSON IN Y2K "AWARENESS" WHO DOES NOT KNOW THAT THE 104 PLANTS GENERATE: 20% OF ALL POWER AND 40% IN THE NORTHEAST AND THAT NOT ONE OF THESE PLANTS NEED BE SHUT DOWN FOR 1/1/2000??

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NOW WATCH COWLES LAST TRICK:

FIRST HE STATES HE AND NO ONE CAN KNOW.

BUT HE IGNORES THE NERC SPOKESMAN STATEMENT THAT IF 1/1/2000 WERE TOMORROW, IT WOULD BE "BUSINESS AS USUAL". TOMORROW.

READ COWLES:

"..In the final analysis, we are only marginally closer to being able to draw Y2k impact conclusions from all of the industry and government reports. I think we can reasonably expect that, barring an unforeseen cascade type event, the power will remain on for a majority of the North American continent. The question then becomes: What percentage of this vast continent remains at risk for power failure? I can't say, and neither can anyone else, because no regional risk studies have been or will be conducted prior to the actual event. And above all, from an infrastructure standpoint, Y2k has been and will remain a regional and local event. If you're in one of those unlucky regional or local areas, then it will not matter to you whether or not the "majority of the North American continent" is unaffected. If the North American electric industry makes it through Y2k mostly unscathed, it's because the industry as a whole got lucky this time, not because of a dedicated, across the board effort that every single one of the 7,941 individual participants subscribed to. And if one large power company (or a few smaller ones) take a hit on 1/1/2000 or the days following, the entire industry loses. It loses the confidence of a public that has become dependent on an increasingly degraded and brittle electric power infrastructure."

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

LUCK ??? Luck of "INCREASINGLY DEGRADED AND BRITTLE ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE...."????

WHAT "BRITTLENESS"??? WHAT "DEGRADED INFRASTRUCTURE"?? (aside from unregulated demand from Consumers who want "meat locker" Air Conditioning everywhere.

AGAIN...."great taste but less filling" TYPICAL COWLES. Where is the PROOF that the power infrastructure is ANY LESS RELIABLE than 10,20,30 years ago?? The huge loss of power across many states in the 1960s that effected NYC and lead to some of the "rioting stories' repeated by the Mongers of y2k fear, HAS NOT HAPPENED to the extent and duration of the 1960s mess. The Industry learned. The Cascade in the West from the "downed tree" was of short duration.

When the Public is ready to carry the cost of burying power lines underground, then maybe HURRICANE or an ICE STORM OUTAGES seen in Canada and W. NY in 1998 will not last long.

BRITTLE?? In the worst heat wave in decades in Texas in 1998, who went without A/C?? Rolling brownouts from excessive demand can even be controlled.

WHERE IS THE "BRITTLENESS"??? IN COWLES HEAD OR ARGUMENT FROM THE "PEANUT GALLERY OF Y2K HUCKSTERISM???"

FINALLY WE GET THIS:

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So Where Do We Go From Here? In the time remaining prior to 01/01/2000, it is this writers opinion that Y2k readiness assessments must be more regionally focused. These regional assessments, conducted along the boundaries of the NERC regional council areas (depicted in Figure 1, below), could provide a greater level of granularity and local confidence rather than an overall proclamation that the entire continent is Y2k ready. These assessments must be risk based rather than operationally based. In very simple terms, if the chances of losing power in one of these regions today are one in a thousand, what are the chances of losing power to any local jurisdiction within the region on 1/1/2000 (or the weeks thereafter) for reasons due to or exacerbated by Y2k issues?

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ONE LAST QUESTION FOR "LITTLE RICKY COWLES":

WHAT THE HELL DOES HE THINK THE POWER INDUSTRY DOES .........EVERY DAY??

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

CHARLIE REUBEN

DALLAS XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

-- Johnny Canuck (j_canuck@hotmail.com), August 10, 1999.

Sorry, 'a', been busy.

In all seriousness, 'a', just what do you see in Cowles' analysis? Outside of his "opinion" that electrical utilities just aren't taking Y2k serious enough?

The only true analysis I see is in the table of electrical companies, and here he is truly misleading. The NERC assessment is based on 3088 responses, not just 251.

A much more informative analysis would be the % of generation capacity and peak load, and customer distribution %, that has been declared Y2k ready. His list of companies include 570 "Power Marketers", which neither produce nor distribute electricity. They serve only as middlemen, buying and selling energy at market prices. And I believe only 150 of those actually do that.

-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), August 10, 1999.

Zzzzzzz zzzzzzzzzzzz zzzzzz zzzzzzzzzzzzzz zzzzzz zzzzzzzzz zzzzzzz zzzzzzzzzzzzzz.... etc.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), August 10, 1999.

Who the hell is this lunatic Charles Reuben? And why the hell do people have to shovel his ravings over here?

-- Lane Core Jr. (elcore@sgi.net), August 10, 1999.

Lane:

Where are your oh-so-politely worded complains when 'a' shoves Milne's mindless ranting down our throats? Milne makes no more sense than CPR, but we must suffer him at least 50 times as often as we must suffer CPR.

Of course, both CPR and Milne have their camp followers. But if you don't like garbage being shoveled in here, then complain about ALL of it. Otherwise you lose credibility.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), August 10, 1999.

Flint commented:

"Of course, both CPR and Milne have their camp followers. But if you don't like garbage being shoveled in here, then complain about ALL of it. Otherwise you lose credibility. "

Lose credibility with WHO???

Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 10, 1999.

Milne makes no more sense than CPR.

Get some sleep, Flint. :-) Good night.

-- Lane Core Jr. (elcore@sgi.net), August 10, 1999.

Lane - are you an only child?

-- (a@aaa.com), August 11, 1999.

Lane - was your sister an only child?

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), August 12, 1999.