Ed: I would think one of the first problems that will need to be addressed is how are the criminals going to be stopped or dealt with if the infrastructers do encounter significant problems??? Cities will be out of control, even if the National Guard comes in, I'm afraid it will be too little, too late. If there are indeed "containment camps" established as some have suggested, it doesn't seem likely they could get things under control prior to massive destruction and loss of life occurs. Remember the last riots in California?? They went on for days before things were back under control. I thank God that we live in the country, but will pray for all those living in the big cities. Any ideas on how these situations can be handled without the "shoot on site" mentality???

-- Boots (clowd@ebtech.net), August 09, 1999

Answers

I keep hearing about martial law and how troops are going to be sent to keep law and order, etc. If we have a severe collapse, as in an 8 or 9 nationwide, the government will not be able to maintain an army for long. People in the military will see what is going on and will be deserting to go home and protect their own families. This is where violent crime will become rampant unless local communities can band together. If things really do go down, I can see where a scenario similar to "The Postman" can actually become a reality.

-- winna (smitmom@hotmail.com), August 09, 1999.

One of my employees is married to a Navy "lifer". 18 years now.

She has told me that the current sentiment in the service is that if they miss a paycheck/payday, they are out of there.

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), August 09, 1999.

Personally, I think most people in the military will stay in the military if things start to get bad. Look at Russia. No pay for months, but still a lot of the troops stay with it. And the same will be true for us. Why? Because if things get bad enough, there won't be outside jobs to go to, and the military will at least see to it that their ranks get food, fuel, and a safe place to weather the storm, if need be. That will be enough for many/most to hang in there.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), August 09, 1999.

anyone=remember the movie=RED-DAWN??

-- guerilla,s (dogs@zianet.com), August 09, 1999.

My comments were based on an 8-9 scale disaster. This would mean that there may not be fuel for transportation which means there may not be food available. I still believe that if things get that bad, not only will the armed forces disband, but the government will collapse.

-- winna (smitmom@hotmail.com), August 09, 1999.

IF things do go horribly wrong, I believe Clinton will declare martial law, and become our dictator. There would be no way for constant peace to be maintained, other than with troops everywhere. Thank God, I live in a really small town, in the mountains. If the big IF does occur, the first thing I will do is to post a "Trespassers Will Be Shot" sign in my front yard. I also firmly believe that it would apply only to "outsiders", as this little community helps each other in ANY type of crisis.

-- Bonnie Fordham Hollingsworth (bonh@citcom.net), August 10, 1999.

I've lived thru the collapse of Rhodesia. The country melted away before my eyes and descended into a quasi-anarchy in which it remains to this day. Upon returning home I've seen the police stand by in LA while rioters ripped the place to bits. I've seen Waco, and I've seen SWAT team wankers stand around looking tough while school children were getting shot down. Every time I seen someone count on government for their salvation, they've ended up in big trouble. So perhaps we'd better look to ourselves. And not just ourselves, to our neighbors, and friends and family. Don't 'shoot first,' for God's sake. Shoot if you must but shoot only as a LAST resort. In the cities, this will be a very hairy time - reflect on the pictures of Korean shop vendors on the rooftops with M-16 rifles during the LA riots. What are the other options? Trust the cops? Ha! Better to abandon what you have and head for the country. But then what. Those of us who live outside the big cities will have pretty full plates. We'll help where we can, some of us. But how to sift thru the folks coming up the driveway and know who to turn away? Many of the outright bad guys betray their identities in the TV-trite gangster look they affect. But desperate middle class folks with hungry kids, brought up on moral relatvism, can be pretty dangerous, too.

Some suggestions: liase with local cops if you trust them. Shake down any unknown folks you allow on your property. ID them by checking background - ask questions about their jobs, military background, where they live. Look at their picture ID and write the information down. Good folks acting bad, tend to give themselves away pretty easily, and can often be deterred easily. If you have nothing to share (really), then gently turn people away or direct them to a shelter. If you are in the loop, you will have a radio that works - share information and help people you encounter keep it together - info is as important as food. You had better be armed. If not, oh well. The first person you encounter who is armed, owns you if they please. Shotguns make a lot of sense because they are a) very deadly, b) short range, and c) most bad guys watch a lot of tv and have been conditioned to view the shotgun as intimidating. You should bone up on the law. Civil disorders have a way of coming to an end, and you better not use any force you can't back up in court later. Protect your life and your family's, review possible scenarios in your head well in advance so you don't lose your cool during an adrenline rush.. Don't look for trouble. Avoid big talkers and don't join neighborhood organizations that have 'big mouths' in them. Never team up with anyone whose judgement you don't trust. Team up with veterans if you can - or at least with people who have been trained in something useful or had real life experience in emergency situations. God gave us instincts which work pretty well when we trust them. Make sure you don't leave weapons around kids (which includes teenagers other than those in which you have absolute confidence). Unless the forces of darkness are quite literally about to overwhelm you, remember that you are not in a war. Even if violence is required - your job is to minimize it, not start WW3. If you are drowning in bad guys - all bets are off but this is unlikely. Do not threaten people with big words, no big talk nor posing with guns. The most formidable threat a bad guy can encounter is a resolute man with a shotgun in the crook of his arm. Note that I said 'Man.' Unless none are available - men do present the better threat, even if your wife can outshoot you every time, she can NOT out intimidate you, and your goal is always to NOT use force. If force is required, play to win, quickly and resolutely. Pray. Seriously, often.

-- Michael Peirce (mpeirce@mindspring.com), August 11, 1999.

First, thanks to Michael for a thoughtful discussion. You seem to have framed the crucial issue, without being over-dramatic. I would just emphasize that people need to consider very thoughtfully what they will be ready to do to protect their families from predatory humans in the absence of any immediate support from paralyzed civil authority. It is not an easy thing to contemplate. The response you describe is commendable for pointing people toward a civilized and rational networking with people in their community they may regard with respect and confidence. We seem to be able to cope with the impersonal aspects of disaster. But if there are serious and prolonged disruptions after January 1, many folks will be required possibly for the first time in their lives, to refrain from giving strangers "the benefit of the doubt." Again, these are issues and problems that need to be considered BEFORE the moment arrives. I can certainly respect someone for being philosophically opposed to violence--- especially deadly force --- but if a person has arrived at that intellectual / emotional conclusion, they still have an obligation to their fellows to a) let them know, b) determine with their neighbors just how they will support the community's response to threats, or hostile action from criminals, looters, raiders, et cetera. And for EVERYONE, I recommend taking almost any first aid course offered by the Red Cross. The courses are taught by volunteers, and the training is first rate. If you can locate it, sign up for a course in "Wilderness Emergency Response", which is based on the assumption that you may be days or even weeks distant from medical facilities. --- David March 11, August 1999

-- David March (marchfiddl@home.com), August 12, 1999.

A highly thoughtful thread here! I appreciate Ed's idea of approaching this by levels. This is longish, but hang in - I will address the question .

Having been in the L.A. area during the riots, we saw some rather amazing things go on. One was the fact that AFTER the riots started, average citizens were lined up at gun stores, suddenly angry at finding there was a waiting period to purchase firearms - and those were people who weren't living paycheck to paycheck. They could afford to stand in line and be mad. Those who weren't trying to buy guns were in long lines trying to buy ammo. Don't put yourself in that scenario!

Secondly, don't believe that you will just drive away at the last minute if it gets too rough for you. Thousands were trapped in L.A. for days. Those were the folks who minimized the whole situation and failed to plan ahead. They thought their easy and burgeoning chain of supply (of just about everything) would always be there for them. The only reason they did o.k. was because the whole affair was so short-lived. Had it gone on longer or been more wide-spread, it would have gone much differently. (And bear in mind that most folks in the area were watching it on T.V. from their homes in the 'burbs. Almost all of the action was contained in a relatively small area. Had everyone tried to bail out at the same time, it would have a disaster movie in the making. We bailed out, but we saw it coming, left early, and had little competition for blacktop.)

Here's what I see - should things break down significantly, it's goiing to happen in some quick, well-defined stages: 1) The immediate worst of it will be the inner cities. No food production, an abundance of already-lawless types roaming around, and a whole lot of other people who will feel thoroughly justified in doing whatever they have to to get their immediate needs met. 2) The 'burbs and smaller towns are inhabitied by an awful lot of people who believe, just like those trapped in L.A., that nothing too serious could happen. A lot of these are fabulous human beings, but they are vastly short on survival skills beyond navigating the city's transit systems, corporate hotspots, and a microwave keypad. When it dawns on them that they are hopelessly unprepared to face the challenge, they will begin to panic. And I believe this group is much more dangerous than your average inner-city criminal. Why? Because they are not going to be operating in an environment they know how to handle, like inner-city thugs do...and panicky people do incredibly stupid things. Think Titanic. They'll freak out. Those who get paralyzed by their own fear will harm themselves by merely failing to thrive. Those who believe they are being denied some birthright to shopping malls and creature comforts are genuinely frightening, themselves. It may be surprising to find out which kind is really which! 3) Those who have prepared, but inadequately (which is most of us who prepare at all), are going to ride it a little longer. We'll have a fair little cache of supplies and tools. When the reality of being in the middle of an insane and huge crowd comes home, the fear is going to start settling in, and some more are going to lose it. Ever been in an emergency medical situation when the EMT's WERE there? People with every possible advantage in a bad situation will still freak out, guaranteed. Happens all the time. 4) There will be yet another, smaller group which will quietly "go guerilla" peaceful or not, depending on what's needed. And for this group, community is the best hope. What do you do when you know your supplies are dwindling, and there's been no let-up in sight? What do you do when your immediate family members may not share a realistic view of your situation? In other words, what do you do if THEY freak out on you, hoard critical goods, turn homicidal, or just turn out to be non- survivor types? You can hardly shoot THEM over it! So how do you cope with that? These people are close to you, and because of it, a larger potential threat than any outsider, gun or no.

Well, if you're lucky, your community contains enough like-minded capable adults so that you can use your alliance to maintain some emotional equilibrium as well as some pooling of resources. If you're less lucky, your community may be no larger than your immediate household. I think the answer is to make some arrangements in advance, and I don't necessarily mean to join any formal groups. I think you have to establish who, in that situation will be "Head of the Family", so to speak. Many homes don't even practice that kind of organization any more, and it's certain that men are not always going to be the most qualified person for that particular job. But you have to establish this for your own household first, and then for your larger community, if you can. It may not be the person who ordinarily leads the day-to-day business of living. It may not even be the person with the best survival skills. This person has to be the one most likely to maintain their balance and reason in the face of unexpected and sometimes hard situations. Someone who can make a fast decision when the need arises. This cannot be a tacit agreement, as so many social contracts are. There is no comfort of old habit to be had here. It needs to spoken, agreed, committed to, discussed in detail and often, and then practiced rigorously if the need arises. This is not about the politics of ego. This is about living tribally and communally in ways most Americans, at least, do not do. This is the person (and potentially group) you may trust with your very life. Not there because YOU can't or won't make a right call on an immediate situation, but because a stressful and dangerous situation is no place to be alone. A good reality check may be exactly what you need to keep a cool head. Think about your own experiences, because that's your best resource. When events have taken a sudden turn in your life, who showed these qualities best IN THE SITUATION? Accidents, deaths, illnesses, financial reverses? Who kept it together? Who lost it? The best Monday morning quarterback is NOT what you want, and it isn't about who WISHES they had this particular internal make-up. Sometimes, a person who is generally emotioanl will calm right down and get to business in an emergency. For all I know, it may only be an accident of nature that some people are less prone to panic. Let THAT person make the call to lighten up or go for broke. And if that Head of the Family person is not also the best- suited for an all-out survival situation, then decide in advance who is, and then be prepared to turn command over to the one who is best qualified for that situation, should it arise. Given that we can't predict every (or maybe even any) exact situations, the most we can probably do is take careful stock of our resources, including the human ones, and make sure we use our very selves to our best possible advantage. All the guns in the world aren't much use if you can't think clearly about when and how to use them well - and likewise all the reason in the world won't help you out if you really should be shooting anything that moves.

-- J. Perez (bluefthr@earhtlink.net), August 13, 1999.