Kristi,

I don't think that the time frame for the progression is written in stone, so to speak. It could run longer or shorter for any specific cycle. Also, the various stages within the cycle could have long or short durations. The way I see it, the general was stating a principle, and the specific details of each cycle will vary according to societal and environmental influences. That's the way I see it. For me, the most important part is the underlying "blueprint" he is talking about, and being able to anticipate it phase to phase. This is sort of like knowing the behavior stages of humans in general, from birth to old age, and including those awful adolescent years.

A & L,

Good commentary. It seems that virtually all of us who are concerned about this whole unfolding situation are standing in a very small group. Very few others around me wish to talk about it or consider the impacts and where that will leave us. You mention some thoughts that made me think you were referring to cosmic destiny for our "souls". Perhaps I read that wrong. But if you were alluding to that idea, I can only say that on that level there are no problems. The problems we are trying to deal with here are the human problems, and once we leave this human world, through death, we will not be troubled by these matters again, unless we again choose to, right? At least that is the basis of the eternal soul belief for many cultures.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), August 08, 1999.

Chris:

A few answers to your questions, off of the top of my head. I'm a fairly serious amatuer historian.

1. In children, about half died before the age of two. Pre modern medicine, many people died in their 40's to 50's. Heart, stroke, disease. However, people did live into their 60's and 70's, just a lot fewer of them. In times of epidemic, all bets could be off. 10%, 20%, up to 60% or more fatalities in urban areas. Plagues (except for Black Death) did not spread as well in rural areas.

2. Depends, to some extent, on the region. In many areas, people went on the road, looking for work or food. Sometimes, children were sold to buy food. Revenues to the state/lord whatever fell badly.

The weakest died first, of course. Old people, sick people, children. Surprisingly, after the famine was over, productivity sometimes went UP, because the workers left were the youngest and strongest. Also, there would be a general increase in per capita "wealth".

3. I hate to say it, but the most common form of government in the last few millenium, especially during chaotic times, seems to be feuding warlords..... Farmers tend to fall under the "protection" of warlords/bandits/warriors. The protectors take the best but leave enough for the villagers to survive on.

4. Loss of skills (scribes, builders, architects, administrators) grows so large that governments cannot work. Also, of course, because of invasion. When a government cannot protect an area, it doesn't work too well. Also loss of communications. If you cannot communicate across your territory, you cannot control it.

5. "The" social fabric, or "a" social fabric? To maintain the current one, we need global communication and trade, functional computer systems, well, you know.

To maintain a social structure, may require no more than 3-4 warriors to protect 60 - 80 farmers, with a safer place to retreat to in the event of an attack.

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), August 09, 1999.

If you step back and take a good look at how much our current government in the USA controls every aspect of our lives, we are truly in bondage right now as a result of our complacency and apathy. IMHO we are, at this point, so dependent on the government that the road back to true freedom will be a long and very difficult one. We keep hearing about how the lack of government checks will cause such widespread chaos and riots. We can do almost nothing without some kind of government approval (everything must be licensed and then is taxed) To me that means bondage! Y2K could be the catalyst that will bring us back to the spiritual faith level of the cycle.

-- winna (smitmom@hotmal.com), August 09, 1999.

Are we so enmeshed in our fetters that we don't realize we're hogtied?

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), August 09, 1999.

Except, comparatively, when we read about conditions in North Korea, Russia, etc. we know we have it better than imaginable! There is freedom still in America. It's just that Y2K may provide the tension to wrap more nooses tighter, when what the USA needs is to throw off the insidious shackles and conduct life by proven metaphysical and spiritual laws which lead to true happiness and respect for other life.

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), August 09, 1999.

A & L,

As I'm sure you know, there are a number of prophesies from good sources that say this is exactly what is about to unfold. And if we are the ones to reach the beginning, on the other side of the coming rift, we will participate in that new culture.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), August 09, 1999.

study of israelites, GODS=CHOSEN PEOPLE.[failed-assignment] every time GOD blessed THEM THEY fell-away.[sound=familiar?]

-- history=repeats. (dogs@zianet.com), August 09, 1999.

I was raised in a sports oriented environment and learned most of lifes lessons through competitive activities. I would like to offer, as a comparative scenario to civilization cycles, the professional sports arena. Notice how teams will rise to the top, some for longer periods of time then others, only to be replaced while they enter into a rebuilding period. Think about the dynamics of this and you will see the similarities of cause and effect. Is it America's time to rebuild the team? Who is poised to replace us on top?

-- For (your@info.com), August 09, 1999.

Dear Jon, Thanks for your answer.Great!

Ok,now we have a few figures to play with.For instance one could analyse the current population by age group & by critical medical dependency.Calculate how many will be left at the end of the first year in each scenario 1 -10 .Then,say,factor in a flu epidemic during the second year on the assumption that flu shots are not available.Investigate what happens to agricultural production if only non-hybrid seeds are available for planting in the year 2001 assuming that they are already available for year 2000.May be wrong about that ?

Perhaps, an illuminating exercise ???How many body bags were ordered,did they say?

Sorry to be so morbid,everyone, but it seems to me that we all talk about possible changes in Society.The underlying assumption is that there will be sufficient cohesion & numbers to effect those changes. If we believe it will be a 7-10 situation will the thinkers survive? Maybe not, if they are DGI's & live in the cities.

More likely,there will be a move to grass roots fundamentalism.

Goto go.Won't be around for a week. Have fun !!

-- Chris (griffen@globalnet.co.uk), August 09, 1999.

Assuming chaos and the potential reorganization of self-government on the local level, one might want to look at the roots of government as developed in several areas of the United States. They might suprise you. In any event, they show the motivation for organization and the some of the existing forms that were borrowed as a template.

Such as Virginia - http://www.snowcrest.net/siskfarm/R5virg.html

Or Oregon (The following information was taken from Dorothy O. Johansen & Charles M. Gates' Empire of the Columbia, Harper & Row, c1967.)

"In 1843, at what has come to be called the "first wolf meeting" to discuss protection of herd from wolves, it was decided to call a general assembly of settlers. At the "second wolf meeting," the settlers agreed to a voluntary tax for wolf bounties and to a committee to administer them. Then a resolution was offered and passed to form another committee to take "measures for the civil and military protection of the colony."

"The committee reported back to the general assembly with recommendations for an elected government consisting of a judge, a legislative committee and an executive committee of three persons. A division in the assembly occurred. Minority dissenters left and the remaining majority proceeded to organize, electing a nine person legislative committee to form a code of laws and report back on July 1.

"This committee reported back with a code of laws derived from Iowa's first territorial session in 1839, (probably from a copy possessed by Elijah White who was a member of the committee and an Indian agent under the Iowa Territory agency,) and the Ordinance of 1787. The code also added new provisions in regard to land, allowing Mission's a township (six miles square,) and all individuals who obeyed the laws possession of 640 acres (one section) on the condition that they recorded the property's metes and bounds, improved the property within six months and resided on it within a year. Voluntary subscriptions and fees were planned in support of the government. The code also established suffrage for men after six months residence and authorized the election of a mayor and three captains to form rifle companies.

"The settlers then elected their executive committee and judge. The jurisdiction of the new government was assumed to extend to the Russian settlements at 54 degrees 41'. The "provisional" government was to serve until a permanent government was established. To that end, the committee established to report the organization to Congress supported the notion that the provisional government would serve until Congress organized the Oregon Country as a territory.

"Congress failed to pass a territorial measure in 1842. But 1844, the influx of new settlers were more in favor of an independent government and dropped the "provisional" title to accommodate Canadian settlers. The new settlers also were at variance with the local land laws. The 1844 legislative committee abolished the executive committee in favor of a governor. Counties were organized and most held county conventions and nominated candidates for office. With ratification and election in 1845, the government stood at Governor, Judge, Sheriff, Recorder, Attorney, Treasurer, and Assessor as State officers; and five organized counties. The move to announce as an independent government was squelched over concerns that the act might precipitate war between the British and the U.S. Instead, a compact was signed locally between the two factions, organizing the (British) Vancouver County north of the Columbia River and folding it into the local government system.

"In 1846, the Oregon Treaty was signed, setting the borders at the 49th parallel; allowing continued HBC navigation and trade on the Columbia River; respecting the possessory rights to property established by the HBC and British subjects; and PSAC's possessory rights to agricultural lands would be confirmed, unless required by for a political or public purpose, in which case, PSAC would be reimburse.

"In December of that year a bill was introduced in Congress to organize the Oregon Territory. But because of the free state/slave state issue, the issue remained unresolved. In 1848, after the Cayuse missionary massacre and Indian War, a petition from the Oregon legislature was carried by Joe Meek to Congress asking for immediate territorial organization. A bill was introduced and signed by President Polk in 1848, six years after the original government was formed."

-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), August 10, 1999.