Aimless Speculation Wanted on Y2K Reactions From Around the World Should the Bug Bite Hard

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Forgive me if someone has already asked this question, but would anyone be willing to speculate on how various nations' peoples are likely to react to Y2K, should it be on the harsh side? How will a country's collective psychology come into play in their responses and recovery from a disaster of this type? This forum is largely about Y2K in the U.S., but what happens around the globe will affect us eventually. (i.e. Japan is perceived as having a different national psychology than Italy or Venzuela or Russia.) Any thoughts?

-- CD (CDOKeefe@aol.com), August 07, 1999

Answers

Amazonian Indians probably won't notice.
People in various woglands dependent on food shipped in will continue to starve, but at faster rates. Maybe even faster than the birth rates.

Seriously, though, it will be more along the line of those living in cities vs. those who can survive without high tech. This is regardless of country.

-- A (A@AisA.com), August 07, 1999.


CD -

I think non-industrial nations will experience unusually high disease and death rates due to Y2K fallout. Speculating social reaction and "[a] country's collective psychology" is exactly that: speculation. Social science and economics are both characterized by groups of theories; in fact, no one positively knows how the hell they'll react to change.

-- Klar (klarbrunn@lycos.com), August 07, 1999.


I'm afraid MOST of the rest of the world will just go along with whatever their government let happen or does, just like they do. Its only in a few countries (US, Canada, UK, Australia,....) where the people actuall can/will take a part in the government. The far majority will have little choice about anything except concerns of daily living (as they do now).

Japan ... thats a hard one. What can a people who DEPEND so heavily on imports for food and other neccessities do? Riot is about all I can think of.

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), August 07, 1999.


Sectors of the economy to take into account:

TOURISM

Will be hit hard, very hard, for many good reasons. Europe, the Caribbean, Asia, etc. In many countries tourism is 35% or 40% or 50- 60% of the economy. The real cash-cow that drives the rest. Beware. Think planes, airports, cash shortage, loss of power, foreign status... People will WANT to stay home. Tourist industry gets hit hard and the economy of those countries goes down, down, down ...

BANK RUNS

We have discussed this matter over and over again. Conclusions, many economies world-wide run on a lot of cash, not plastic, not checks. Bank runs will be a worldwide phenomenon as people are trained and used to hoard cash.

POWER

Do we need to dwell much more on this still? Most countries will have very serious problems.

SOCIAL VIOLENCE

Cuba. Despite the many reasons I don't like Cuba's communism and political dictatorship, still I have to admit that come Jan 2000 Cuba may turn out to be one of the very few countries, if not the ONLY country in the world where Y2k social violence does not take place, crime, looting, etc.

The reason is that for many generations Cubans have learned to live and let live despite the enormous scarcity of basic things. They have learned to put solidarity into real life practice. I cannot conceive Cuba really being impacted by Y2K.

Problems there will be, but they are trained to overcome them "manual" style. Climate is benign, population density is not high. No other country in the world I can think of has these new, unexpected Y2K advantages. The paradox is, and I hate to admit it but I must, Cuba's Castro may pretty well pass the Y2K crisis (how long?) better than any other country in the world.

GLOBALIZATION

Globalization goes down the drain. Good old fashioned protectionism is the name of the game. Exports are difficult (who pays?), imports are tough to get, local industries require protection...

GOLD & BARTER

Back to gold and barter and cash.

CRIME

Crime will be rampant just about everywhere, including the US. Cities explode, countryside is flooded with city dwellers that spill over from everywhere. Massive migrations. People against police, police against people, vigilantes, localized armed gangs establish New Order eventually. Central power ceases to exist (no communications!), local powers that be arise from the ashes.

Food for thought. Take care.

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), August 07, 1999.


Do you think it's going to end up like the "Old West" where you've got to walk around with a gun attached to your belt to feel half-way safe? I think not. I think the ramifications will be slow in coming and will slowly deteriorate the economy into a recession. After several months, a recovery will begin and we will live like Russia for awhile (poor services, shortages, etc.). I do not see TEOTWAWKI.

-- Butt Splinters (Fence@Sitter.net), August 07, 1999.


You'd better believe that some countries that already blame us will blame us more. Do not show up in a Fundamentalist-whatever country saying, "Hi, I'm Jane American." I think we will see a lot of global isolationism. We already know there will be less trading... People are going to suffer. But then, the poor have always suffered. Would that it were different, but it's not.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWAyne@aol.com), August 07, 1999.

This time around the rich and the very rich will suffer just as much as the poor, maybe more Mara. Can you imagine the reaction of people that "think" they are wealthy and a bank run turns them into a regular John Doe in a matter of days?

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), August 07, 1999.

Read P.A. Sorokin's books and you'll be halfway to knowing what will happen. Think of having Clinton's moral sense in charge of writing the Constitution, all laws, and all social mores. There will be few heroes in 2000 compared to the # of people acting in fundamentally evil patterns. Far too many people are morally random these days anyway; when tested at all, expect them to stand up as well as base metal in a blast furnace.

www.y2ksafeminnesota.com (recently redone, with graphics and new updates)

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), August 07, 1999.


Do you think it's going to end up like the "Old West" where you've got to walk around with a gun attached to your belt to feel half-way safe? I think not.

Me neither. If you want to feel half-way safe after TSHTF, you should not be "walking around" at all.

-- (its@coming.soon), August 07, 1999.


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